RealGM

I just want to clear up some things about the Jays GM, add some context, and address some of the common complaints about JP and reasons for firing him

- It's time to go in another direction, he's had his chance for 8 years, I don't want him around for the rebuild, etc.

The thing people who advocate firing JP for the sake of firing him forget to do is offer a replacement. Do you want Anthopoulos or LaCava? Sure, I'd be fine with that except would they really be all that different from JP? Or do you want to give another newbie a shot? There isn't likely to be a successful GM who is just lying around unless Gillick is willing to come back.

JP, for all his faults, has improved exponentially every year he's been GM. Since 2006 when they finally gave him an adequate payroll the Jays have been one of the 5-8 best teams in baseball (see below). He has rebuilt the farm system in that time through strong drafting starting in 2003. Additionally, management finally agreed to pay over slot for draft picks this year and got another strong haul of talent (Canadians too!) according to scouts. So really, the idea of firing JP is based on nothing more than irrational lines of thought like "he's had his chance" or "it's time to go in another direction".

2006 - 91-71, 3rd best in both the AL and overall. http://web.archive.org/web/200610050009 ... ndings.php
2007 - 87-75, 5th best in the AL, 8th best in the majors. http://web.archive.org/web/200710050322 ... ndings.php
2008 - No link available, but they finished 92-70, 5th best in the majors, yet 4th in the AL East
2009 - 50-43 so far, tied for the 5th best record in the ML. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/stati ... ndings.php

No archive link for 2003 but they were 87-75, 6th best in the AL. So they've had playoff-caliber teams at least 3-4 years since 2002 and not one playoff berth. You can chalk that up to "excuses" like having to play in the toughest division in baseball, with an unbalanced schedule where they play 38 games vs. two of the best teams, a fraction of NY and Boston's payroll, having to overpay FAs, LOTS of injuries, etc. You can call it excuse-making, I call them legitimate constraints. Sure you can point out the Tampa Bay Rays and they certainly have done very well with some smart trades and signings. But they also sucked, really really bad for 10 years before finally competing, during which they racked up high draft pick after high draft pick to build their core. Do you want to lose 100 games every year for 10 years to compete? More importantly, will Rogers even allow it, as I'll get to a little later?


- He has no plan. What happened to the "5 year plan"? Etc.

First of all, he never said anything about a 5 year plan. People have been asking this same question to Mike Wilner for years and he has the same response..."he never said that". And secondly, these so-called "plans" are hogwash anyway. There's no way you can plan 5 years ahead in a sport with the uncertainty of baseball, you'd be foolish and naive to do it. I'd like to know of any team that has one of these plans and it worked out. Things changes, trades become available, injuries happen, etc.


-He was brought in as a Moneyball GM and failed to compete on a $50M budget

This is true on the surface. But remember that JP has always been more of a puppet of Rogers than a guy who is truly in charge of the franchise like Colangelo. Here's my read on it: Rogers' ownership of the Blue Jays is almost completely for using the Jays and the Skydome as an advertising vehicle for Rogers. This is why they bought the Skydome for a mere $25M. This is why you see every possible inch of advertising spaced used for Rogers products. This is why you see decisions like re-signing Wells to a ridiculous contract (fearing they would lose out on a "marketable franchise player" after losing Delgado) and making every effort to bring Canadian players to Toronto (confirmed by Keith Law).

You get the feeling he's here to field a team just good enough for them to make their ridiculous profits and that there's a point at which spending any more than that will not result in enough profit to be worth it. So when they first brought in JP, that point of diminishing returns was set at around $50M. They soon realized it was naive to think competing with that little was possible in the AL East with two other teams spending 3-4 times as much--the Yankees and Sox started doubling and tripling their payroll at precisely that time--so they ditched extreme Moneyball. So in 2006 they gave him a higher payroll, but still with cost minimization and profit maximization firmly in mind.

Recent events seem to confirm this line of thinking. Think about it, if Rogers really was about winning, they would've paid Manny Ramirez last year and the Jays would be be a serious contender, but they figured Manny wouldn't result in more profit. Same thing with putting Halladay on the block. They don't want to pay him (rather, they don't want to raise the payroll to fit him) and they figure people will still keep coming to games regardless (Mike Wilner pointed out that attendance at Doc's games is actually less than for other starters). It's very cynical but it makes sense for them. For example, last year Rogers made $1.28 BILLION IN PROFIT and they actually lowered the Jays payroll and are now shopping Halladay. And caught up in this is a team and GM who is forced to permanently operate in neutral. Other teams' GMs get to go out and make that extra signing that will put the team over the top, JP can't do that.

- He hasn't drafted well

I'm willing to bet the Jays have graduated more talent to the majors since 2003 than the vast majority of ML teams. Starting in 2003, he has drafted Hill, Marcum, Lind, Litsch, Purcey, Janssen, Romero, Mills, Snider, Ray, Cecil, and Rzepczynski who have come up to the majors, plus plenty of other talented players developing in the minors. The complaint about him drafting only college players is unfounded. That strategy was only in place for early rounds picks--he has always drafted high schoolers later on--because of the pressure to field competitive teams every year and because drafting high schoolers early usually requires teams to pay over slot which management only started doing this year. The Jays system isn't one of the best according to scouting agencies but it has consistently developed major-league talent, possibly because those scouting agencies tend to overvalue potential while the Jays seem to pluck unheralded players and turn them into solid players.


- He doesn't spend wisely/Makes bad signings.

This one is also true on the surface. The BJ Ryan signing has turned out to be disastrous in hindsight. It was the biggest contract ever for a reliever at the time and it was even looking great after the first year but then he got TJ surgery and went downhill. Closers are overrated though and the money should have been used elsewhere. Frank Thomas' contract was probably jumping the gun, he could've probably been signed for cheaper. The real problem wasn't the signing, it was the length. Thomas was the best offensive player in 2007 but that vesting option for the 3rd year forced them to release him in the 2nd year and pay him not to play. Koskie was also paid not to play and his signing was probably pressured by management because he's Canadian. He had a history of injuries and his age should've been a red flag. Billy Koch was signed for a guaranteed $1M and then released 2 months later. Also, David Eckstein and Royce Clayton. I'll get to Vernon Wells later.

But consider the many great signings. How about extending Roy Halladay twice to very good deals. Alex Rios to a very good contract. Aaron Hill to a great one. Scott Downs and even Burnett. Considering that the Jays usually have to overpay for any big FA they want, his spending record doesn't look as bad.


- Vernon Wells contract

Many people agree this was Paul Godfrey's call and it fits in with the general theme of Rogers' ownership of the Jays as a marketing vehicle. They didn't want to lose him after not being able to pay Delgado and they falsely decided he was a franchise player. This contract is certainly awful but keep in mind that it averages out to $18M per year, which is what Torii Hunter gets also, and Wells has arguably had a better career than him (see here for an in-depth look at the contract: http://mvn.com/thesouthpaw/2008/11/20/a ... tract.html). The contract wouldn't be nearly as bad if it wasn't so backloaded. Why they chose to do that is beyond me but it ruins any chance of trading him to a rich team desperate for an OF. And consider that Vernon's best seasons were when he hit in front of a legit HR hitter (Delgado and Glaus). He never was and never will be a legit cleanup hitter so if they could simply put one behind him, he'd be much better and would possibly even opt out after 2011. But since the contract is so back-loaded and so long, it's nearly impossible to trade him.


- He shouldn't be allowed to trade Halladay if he's not gonna be around for the rebuild

I couldn't disagree with this less. I can't think of a single bad/terrible trade JP has made. He has nailed basically every trade he has made. How about these:

-Got Eric Hinske, who was ROY, then got fat
-Got for Lyle Overbay for very little (Bush, Gross, and Jackson). Overbay delivered an above-900 OPS season, then got a hand injury, but he's still an elite fielding 1B and has great OBP
-Got Bobby Kielty (good prospect at the time) for soon to be FA Shannon Stewart who he couldn’t afford with the payroll at the time
-Traded Bobby Kielty for Ted Lilly (fleeced Billy Beane)
-Used an asset in Orlando Hudson to fill a need at 3B by getting Glaus. Aaron Hill was coming up and there was a need for a power hitter
-Got Justin Speier in a 3-way trade for Mark Hendrickson. Speier was a great RP as a Blue Jay
-Stole Tallet for Bubby Buzachero (sp?). He's been a great RP and now he's even starting
-Stole Accardo for Hillenbrand. Delivered a great 30 save season.
-Got John McDonald for nothing. Not really a great move, but he was free
-Turned Glaus into Scott Rolen, when Glaus demanded a trade. That’s a great return considering it was a trade demand
-Traded for Scutaro (fleeced Beane again). Now he's a starting SS and a really good one at that.
-Traded Matt Stairs to the Phillies for Fabio Castro

Honestly, I wouldn't want any other GM in the majors to make this trade. I'm almost 100% sure he will make it worth it if it happens. And don't listen to Heyman about that Mets offer. That was proven to be false. Ricciardi has repeatedly stated that they'd have to be blown away to make a trade or else they'll keep him. Unless a team is willing to part with a combination of elite propsect/ML-ready starter, SS, cleanup hitter/other prospects, Doc will not be traded.

Great post. I still think the verdict is out on JP. I'd like to see him convert our pitching prospects into some hitting to try and convince Halladay to stay. The thing with JP is that he's made some great minor moves like bullpen depth and filling out the back end of the rotation however he's never made a franchise changing impactful move in his reign while his failures have impacted the franchise greatly such as the BJ Ryan contract, the Lyle Overbay extension. I don't mention the Vernon Wells extension because any GM at the time would have given him that contract. A gold glove 5 tool player at the time was worth that money, nobody could have guessed that Wells would regress this much. However the B.J. Ryan contract was a bad move, to spend so much money on a 2nd tier closer was a huge mistake for a mid-market team. The Lyle Overbay extension handcuffed the team from acquiring a bigger bat at that position. You could even argue that trading Orlando Hudson, a perennial gold glover for the often injured Glaus was a bad move. If JP can move some of the pitching depth for hitting, we could have a decent team. Without hitting in our division, you can't succeed. That starts with a legit leadoff hitter and a big power bat. Honestly I don't think JP has any intention of trading Halladay, simply putting his name out there to appease Halladay and figure out his true intentions which is that he will bolt if we don't win.

I agree with you. He's pretty risk-averse about trades and signings, which is why other teams get those diamond in the rough guys like Ortiz, Pena, etc. and JP doesn't. The closest thing to a franchise-changing trade was the Hudson for Glaus trade, which I personally think was a great one because it filled a need while using an expendable asset. But this just goes back to my point about JP being held back by an ownership that wants a consistent product every year and is content with winning 80-something games and not making the playoffs. Just imagine, if they actually wanted to win, they simply had to sign Manny and all of a sudden Vernon plays better, Doc wants to stay, the other young players have less pressure, and with some injury luck, they'd be serious contenders.

It'd be great to get a power left handed hitter ala an Adrian Gonzalez. I personally thought the time to strike was this year, not only to convince Doc to stay but because of the struggles of the Raptors and the Leafs. The city was begging for a winner yet the management decided not to spend any money or make any moves in the offseason. I have belief in JP to build solid pitching depth but without hitting you can't survive in this division and if you don't draft hitting, you have to sign it or trade for it. If JP can convert the pitching prospects into hitters, then i'll start believing.

I don't think JP is an awful GM either, but I gots a bone to pick.

That JP isn't a Moneyball GM is a misconception. Moneyball isn't about winning on the cheap, or OPS. It should help you win for less money, and OPS was what BB had targeted, but you aren't winning for $50 million in this division, and OPS was fully valued by the time JP got here.

Moneyball is all about finding players with a skill set you consider to be undervalued. And JP has done that for both pitchers and hitters. With pitchers he targetted extreme ground ball guys. Though the league knows this one to some degree, he can still get them for less than their full value to this team because of what he considers undervalued in hitters: defence. If you look at JPs moves since he has become comfortable as a GM, he has put a lot of value on defence. It is definitely more of a focus than for most other teams.

Now is he right that other teams have undervalued it? I would guess so, but I can't back that up. But as to him being a Moneyball GM, that doesn't matter. He's found something he thinks is undervalued, and he's built his team around it.

I didn't mean to make it sound like Moneyball is only about low payroll teams. I was just responding to people who say he failed to compete on a $50M payroll. I agree with you completely that he has found market inefficiencies and taken advantage of them. Another one you didn't list is having a great bullpen. JP has basically discovered the new Moneyball frontier with that. Last year's team wouldn't be nearly as good as it was if it wasn't for the pitching, defense, and bullpen. They had the best starting pitching and bullpen in the majors and a top 5 defense. Considering how bad the offense was, it's amazing they won 86 games and had a 92-70 Pythagorean record.

how does moneyball really work? can it be easily explained?

JP's in a tough situation. He gets credit for everything that goes right, but for the ones that don't work out, we can blame Rogers or Paul Godfrey.

Why don't we credit Godfrey or Rogers for those Halladay extensions?

For all those winning seasons, wasn't this team really "out of it" by the end of July? Seemed to be good Septembers that made their records better.

And since we all know Vernon needs a big hitter behind him, why isn't there one now?? We're not putting our most expensive player in the best position to succeed.

At the end of the day, the "constraints/excuses" aren't changing. So if JP hasn't won in this situation up till now, it just seems he's not capable.

Though, for what it's worth, I do agree Rogers needs to change their attitude, no matter the GM. Either they need to start spending more, or they need to lobby MLB to get out of this division.

I somewhat agree with your overall assessment - although a lot of it is through rose-coloured glasses - but the line, "He has nailed basically every trade he has made," was reaching a little.

JP has a habit of paying to get rid of players, whether it be through a release or a trade. He's had to package several of his poor contracts with cash in order to get rid of them. He had to pay Boston to take Hinske, Milwaukee to take Koskie, and money went to St. Louis in the Glaus trade. Other teams with bad contracts (San Fran with Morris, for example) were able to pawn off their guys without paying a dime. For a guy that is supposedly economically strict, JP blows a lot of cash.

Other trades you mentioned you also failed to fully explain. Sure, Toronto got one very good season out of Hinske, but Koch delivered a better year for Oakland and didn't become a burden like Hinske. Kielty was a little past "prospect" status at age 26, and Stewart made a strong run at the MVP while with Minnesota. While Glaus has literally done nothing for St. Louis this year, his first year with them was better than what Rolen is putting up now, while Rolen's first year here was quite unimpressive.

So yeah, JP isn't the anti-Christ, but he's not as wonderful as this is painting him to be. He's a guy that is getting significantly stronger with the draft and orchestrating an organization, but I'd still rank his free-agency/trading skills at just below average. If he was hired three or four years ago, I'd think he was tops. But his first few years were pretty horrible.

Hoopstarr wrote:I didn't mean to make it sound like Moneyball is only about low payroll teams. I was just responding to people who say he failed to compete on a $50M payroll. I agree with you completely that he has found market inefficiencies and taken advantage of them. Another one you didn't list is having a great bullpen. JP has basically discovered the new Moneyball frontier with that. Last year's team wouldn't be nearly as good as it was if it wasn't for the pitching, defense, and bullpen. They had the best starting pitching and bullpen in the majors and a top 5 defense. Considering how bad the offense was, it's amazing they won 86 games and had a 92-70 Pythagorean record.

I don't think JP necessarily values a great bullpen more than any other GM. They would all like to have one. If a moneyball guy decided he valued a great bullpen, you would see them spend more money on a great bullpen figuring they would save it elsewhere.

But JP hasn't gone out of his way to pick up these guys as FAs or spent a lot of money on the pen. I think he's just better at picking out relief pitchers. Which I think also goes back to getting ground ball guys and a great D.

-Hinske won ROY, any GM would've given him that extension. And no one could've predicted him falling off like that
-Shannon Stewart was going to be a FA and they couldn't afford him
-Glaus asked for a trade. It's amazing that he even got Rolen out of that deal.
-Koch was traded for Hinske because his salary was going to triple and double over the next two years. And yes he did become a burden, which is why Oakland traded him after one year because of his salary jumping (http://www.thebaseballcube.com/Salaries ... Koch.shtml)

Seriously, how can those possibly be bad trades, some serious nitpicking going on there. I can agree with the Koskie salary dump being bad, but it's the signing that was the worst part. And even then, at least he got Brian Wolfe in the Koskie deal, who was a pretty good specialist out of the pen.

Ricciardi defenders keep harping about the outside factors (AL East, spending discrepancy, etc), but guess what? None of that is going to change. The Yankees and Red Sox are going to spend more money whether Ricciardi, LaCava, or Carrottop is GM. So why even bother using that as an excuse? Either find a way to win in spite of that or find another GM who can. Being OK with 82-85 wins every year because you are afraid that the next GM might be worse is a pretty poor reason to keep a GM on board. The next GM will naturally look worse anyway since he won't be inheriting Roy Halladay.

According to Keith Law, LaCava was behind many of the Jays good draft picks (I believe he mentioned Lind, Marcum, and Snider in particular). Whether that is true or simply Law with an axe to grind is a different matter, but I would be fine with LaCava as the GM. LaCava being stuck behind JP does not mean they will be similar. Ricciardi is no Beane. Ash was certainly no Pat Gillick.

As far as Rogers, I don't see how they deserve any type of blame here. When they bought the Jays, the team was doing horrible financially. Not only did they buy the team, but they also renovated the stadium and after a few years of cutting salary they actually increased payroll substantially. Rogers was very good to this franchise, and one year of cutting costs during a down economy and the death of its top guy is not going to change that. I actually fear what will happen if the Jays are sold. How Rogers can get blamed yet in the same post Ricciardi's bad spending habits are brought up is a bit contradictory. If JP spent Rogers money properly, then Rogers doesn't become an issue anymore. That is square on JP.

Ricciardi's spending, and the players he spends on, is atrocious more often than not. That is not Paul Godfrey's fault. Like I mentioned before, after next season the Jays will have spent $30 million on Koskie, Thomas, and Ryan to play for other teams. He found Kelvim Escobar too expensive in 2004, then proceeded to throw over $10 million on Batista, Hentgen, Ligtenberg, and Adams that year (Escobar wanted a three year deal at $5-6 million). He found Delgado unworthy of more than two years in 2005, yet gave brittle Koskie three years immediately after Delgado bolted. He did not want to give Chris Carpenter an MLB contract at $300,000 (which Carpenter was willing to sign) until after St. Louis offered one, yet had no problem spending $2.5 million on Sturtze, Tam, and Creek that year. He signed Thomas to a big contract after a great season at age 38 when Beane got him the year before that for a few hundred thousand guaranteed. These things add up. Misjudging talent and/or buying high is not going to reap good returns most times.

As far as trading, when has Ricciardi made a big trade? He has always been more content with getting draft picks rather than selling high on his talent. Why would you feel confident that he will move Halladay AND get back the proper talent? If he were trading Brian Tallet, then yes, I would be confident in the return. With higher profile guys, it seems like he would rather get picks. That shows a lack of confidence on his part. That is where the fear of risk taking comes into play, and that is a major difference between him and his competition. If Halladay is moved, I have a feeling Beeston will be more behind it than JP, and I hope that is the case.

Honestly, you can look at the good points of any GM and justify keeping them. Remember Gord Ash? The Jays finished within 4 games of a playoff spot in both 1998 and 2000 (they were as close as 2 back by the final week of both seasons), while leading the Wild Card into mid-August in 1999. Ricciardi has yet to finish better than 8 games back of a playoff spot since he was hired and has usually been out the race by July. Does that mean anything? When you focus on the positive and ignore the negative that has negated the positive, it makes anyone look better.

Like I said before, from 2002-05 Ricciardi was not very good. From 2006-09, he has been good. Overall, he has been average. If Ricciardi started his tenure in 2006, I would definitely want to keep him around because the improvement has been very noticable. But he started in 2002. The lack of major success from 2006-onwards can be attributed to poor decisions he made before then. The organization needs fresh blood.

i calll bull. ricciardi sucks. you are leaving out all the negatives. please fire him.

Michael Bradley wrote:
Like I said before, from 2002-05 Ricciardi was not very good. From 2006-09, he has been good. Overall, he has been average. If Ricciardi started his tenure in 2006, I would definitely want to keep him around because the improvement has been very noticable. But he started in 2002. The lack of major success from 2006-onwards can be attributed to poor decisions he made before then. The organization needs fresh blood.

We can go back and forth as to criticisms and support of JP all day long and probably not reach get anywhere, and I'm ok with that. But once you reach this point, you've lost me.

What this tells me is that, much like for every other job ever, it takes a GM a few years to get good at their job. And now that you agree he's gotten there, you want to fire him for (I presume, since you were talking about LaCava) someone who needs to go through the learning period again?

And your reasoning is "the organization needs fresh blood"? (I could harp on the fact that LaCava doesn't really qualify as this... but won't.) My problem is that you haven't proven that to be true. If JP has become a good GM, why the need for fresh blood?

Modern_epic wrote:

Michael Bradley wrote:
Like I said before, from 2002-05 Ricciardi was not very good. From 2006-09, he has been good. Overall, he has been average. If Ricciardi started his tenure in 2006, I would definitely want to keep him around because the improvement has been very noticable. But he started in 2002. The lack of major success from 2006-onwards can be attributed to poor decisions he made before then. The organization needs fresh blood.

We can go back and forth as to criticisms and support of JP all day long and probably not reach get anywhere, and I'm ok with that. But once you reach this point, you've lost me.

What this tells me is that, much like for every other job ever, it takes a GM a few years to get good at their job. And now that you agree he's gotten there, you want to fire him for (I presume, since you were talking about LaCava) someone who needs to go through the learning period again?

And your reasoning is "the organization needs fresh blood"? (I could harp on the fact that LaCava doesn't really qualify as this... but won't.) My problem is that you haven't proven that to be true. If JP has become a good GM, why the need for fresh blood?

Because within the timeframe that he has been "good", it was directly the result of increased payroll. Notice how the team suddenly improved when they added AJ, Ryan, Glaus, Overbay, etc? That wasn’t scouting brilliance, that was a $210 million budget increase over three years, and the Jays STILL could not get over the +/- 85 win hump. Ricciardi's "bad" period was when he had to shed payroll and cut costs. That is where the Jays, supposedly, are now. Why would you keep him on to rebuild again when his first rebuild was a massive failure (until a huge payroll increase finally added impact talent)?

Ricciardi has always been shoddy with money, but when payroll was higher he could just throw away any mistake as sunk cost and not have to deal with the consequences (see Koskie, Thomas, Ryan, etc, etc, etc). Rogers seemed to be very forgiving as well. When JP was penny pinching, almost every moderate size move he made was bad outside of a rare exception or two. Hell, even his moves with a bigger payroll were hit or miss. Put him on a team like the Tigers who are allowed to spend money and are in a weaker division, and he will be fine. Put him on the Jays where money has to be spent properly and margin for error is low, and he is out of his element.

So yes, he has improved. But no, he is not a good fit for this team moving forward.

As far as LaCava, again, being behind JP does not necessarily mean he thinks the same or has the same philosophy. He would be fresh blood. I mean, how many people are dumb enough to think JP and Beane are the same? Beane is assertive, gutsy, and creative. Ricciardi is reactionary, unimaginative, and horrible at reading outliers. Yet, JP was hired almost entirely because he worked under Beane. The two couldn’t be any more different. LaCava has gotten good reviews from everything I have read, and as I mentioned before, Keith Law credited him a lot for the team’s drafting improvement. Or hell, go outside the organization if you want. But Ricciardi got his time, and has shown to be incapable of fixing this team.

Hoopstarr wrote:-Hinske won ROY, any GM would've given him that extension. And no one could've predicted him falling off like that

You can't give JP credit for stealing Scutaro and calling it a savvy move, but then dissolve him of all responsibility when the Hinske signing fizzled. He signed it, it's his mistake, and Hinske became a burden. You don't get to pick-and-choose what JP gets blamed for.

Shannon Stewart was going to be a FA and they couldn't afford him

I think we all know that. Still doesn't change the fact he traded for a 26-year old "prospect" who was a pretty poor player.

Glaus asked for a trade. It's amazing that he even got Rolen out of that deal.

You're confusing 2007 Rolen with 2003 Rolen. Glaus for 2003 Rolen would've been incredible. 2007 Rolen was overpaid, oft-injured, declining skillwise, and was bordering on a clubhouse cancer. He wasn't even very good last year; he's just put together a strong 2009 thus far. Glaus has done the opposite. At best, you could call the deal a push.

Koch was traded for Hinske because his salary was going to triple and double over the next two years. And yes he did become a burden, which is why Oakland traded him after one year because of his salary jumping

I'm not saying Koch didn't negatively impact any franchise, but it sure wasn't Oakland, and they certainly didn't have to pay Chicago to take him.

The biggest problem with JP is he doesn't maximize on his assets, which goes hand-in-hand with his mediocre trading ability. He couldn't trade Lilly, Burnett, Escobar, or Delgado (I know, trade clause, but maybe if he didn't pin all the Jays woes on him, Delgado would've been more receptive), and overpaid on Wells and Rios instead of seeing them off. It's also looking like he won't sell high on Rolen and Scutaro when they certainly aren't in the clubs long-term plans. Of course, when he does try and trade them (Stewart), he only receives mediocre players that fit into his "system."

- It's time to go in another direction, he's had his chance for 8 years, I don't want him around for the rebuild, etc.

He did have his chance and might I add a much longer shot than almost any other organization would have given him. But, then again this is Rogers, who takes forever to fix a mistake (case in point Warren Sawkiw lasting as long as he did). Since this is a rebuilding job, I would strongly consider someone with a strong scouting background. I think that Logan White would be a very nice choice. Terry Ryan is still available after stepping down and he has had extensive experience handling a limited budget. Gerry Hunsiker is also a potential candidate. And like someone else mentioned Anthopoulos and LaCava wouldn't necessarily share JP's strategy and way of building a team.

- He has no plan. What happened to the "5 year plan"? Etc.

Whether JP said he had a five year plan or not is immaterial. You should be able to see tangible results by then (i.e. legitimately competing for a playoff spot). Gillick said as much on OTR around the same time that Beeston and Gaston were hired last year. It has been relatively clear that JP has no idea what to do to succeed in this division. He may not be the worst GM, but certainly not good enough for this division.

-He was brought in as a Moneyball GM and failed to compete on a $50M budget

The theory of Moneyball is basically buy low & sell high. During his tenure, JP has pretty much been the anti-thesis of this. He's bought high on a number of players and then gets stuck with these players. Money only seems to exacerbate this and do longer term damage. For example, he was extremely quick to sign players to extensions. In the case of Overbay he was quick to sign him to an extension after his first season despite having 3 more years of arbitration left. Basically, the only players worth locking up to longterm contracts with this amount of service time are elite players and he ain't no Ryan Braun or Ryan Howard. So it's a needless risk to take (what's the big fear of going year to year). Frank Thomas was another example of buying high on a player. So, JP has not improved exponentially unless the definition of exponential has changed since I last took Calculus.

As for Rogers reluctance to give JP any more money, can you really blame them?!? If he had shown much better bang for his buck instead of habitually eating contracts, I have a feeling that ownership would be more receptive in freeing up more money (not to mention the team would probably have made the playoffs, thus giving more incentive). JP has shown almost no ability to properly managing the money that he has been given.

Halladay isn't being shopped because the payroll is too low. He's being shopped because this team is not close to being good enough to legitimately compete for a playoff spot and with very little likelihood of substantially being better than what they've been over JP's tenure (due to the money tied up and the state of the farm system). Either that or Halladay has indicated to the organization that he will not be coming back once his contract is done.

- He hasn't drafted well

It's not about quantity, but rather quality. It's critical for them to develop their own elite talent. Complementary players are much easier and cheaper to procure. And teams need elite talent for the most part to compete for playoff spots and to make it to the WS.

Up until the last few years, I don't think that any other team drafted a higher proportion of college prospects than the Jays (note: you could probably find this on Baseball America). And, it's a fallacy that HS prospects are much more expensive to sign than college prospects.

- He doesn't spend wisely/Makes bad signings.

Like I mentioned before this is the main problem. There were always concerns about BJ Ryan's mechanics and JP signed him anyway. Similar health concerns surrounded Burnett, Thomas, and Glaus/Rolen. The Jays even knew of Wells shoulder problems prior to signing his huge extension and still went ahead and signed him. A lot of people have tried to pass this off as something purely the idea of ownership/Godfrey, but I don't entirely buy that. It could very well be that JP was just as scared of losing Wells considering the state of the farm system. Some teams can afford that type of risk, others simply can't. Knowing which type of team you are is critical to these types of decisions. The Yankees can afford Giambi being a bust, but the Jays can't afford taking the risk of signing Halladay to a 7 year $140M extension. If the Angels want to pay Torii Hunter similar type of money as Wells, maybe they can afford that type of risk (although I think it's a dumb signing). But, one dumb signing does not justify another dumb signing.

He has been very quick to sign players the moment that they have a good season. This severely restricts any flexibility that a team can have when the GM keeps handing out longterm contracts. What it means is those players better live up to those contracts, otherwise barring a phenomenal farm system the team is screwed. Contrast the way that JP has operated with the way that the Rays have structured their contracts. The contracts tend to be much shorter in length and have team options (instead of player options). That not only minimizes the risk, but increases the value of their assets as potential trade partners are not worried about having to pay money 3 or 4 years down the road.

So, while JP might be able to make the playoffs in another division, he has clearly shown that he can't here. In fact, I would say that the Jays are much closer to being a 5th place team than they are to making the playoffs. Organizations need to adapt to their circumstances, not the other way around. Ricciardi came into a good situation and had alot of pieces to play with. It's on him if he squandered those assets and didn't bring enough assets in. He came in with a team that had players signed to bloated contracts and that's pretty much what he'll leave behind. It's time to move on and JP's not that special to begin with.

dirtybird wrote:

- It's time to go in another direction, he's had his chance for 8 years, I don't want him around for the rebuild, etc.

He did have his chance and might I add a much longer shot than almost any other organization would have given him. But, then again this is Rogers, who takes forever to fix a mistake (case in point Warren Sawkiw lasting as long as he did). Since this is a rebuilding job, I would strongly consider someone with a strong scouting background. I think that Logan White would be a very nice choice. Terry Ryan is still available after stepping down and he has had extensive experience handling a limited budget. Gerry Hunsiker is also a potential candidate. And like someone else mentioned Anthopoulos and LaCava wouldn't necessarily share JP's strategy and way of building a team.

- He has no plan. What happened to the "5 year plan"? Etc.

Whether JP said he had a five year plan or not is immaterial. You should be able to see tangible results by then (i.e. legitimately competing for a playoff spot). Gillick said as much on OTR around the same time that Beeston and Gaston were hired last year. It has been relatively clear that JP has no idea what to do to succeed in this division. He may not be the worst GM, but certainly not good enough for this division.

-He was brought in as a Moneyball GM and failed to compete on a $50M budget

The theory of Moneyball is basically buy low & sell high. During his tenure, JP has pretty much been the anti-thesis of this. He's bought high on a number of players and then gets stuck with these players. Money only seems to exacerbate this and do longer term damage. For example, he was extremely quick to sign players to extensions. In the case of Overbay he was quick to sign him to an extension after his first season despite having 3 more years of arbitration left. Basically, the only players worth locking up to longterm contracts with this amount of service time are elite players and he ain't no Ryan Braun or Ryan Howard. So it's a needless risk to take (what's the big fear of going year to year). Frank Thomas was another example of buying high on a player. So, JP has not improved exponentially unless the definition of exponential has changed since I last took Calculus.

As for Rogers reluctance to give JP any more money, can you really blame them?!? If he had shown much better bang for his buck instead of habitually eating contracts, I have a feeling that ownership would be more receptive in freeing up more money (not to mention the team would probably have made the playoffs, thus giving more incentive). JP has shown almost no ability to properly managing the money that he has been given.

Halladay isn't being shopped because the payroll is too low. He's being shopped because this team is not close to being good enough to legitimately compete for a playoff spot and with very little likelihood of substantially being better than what they've been over JP's tenure (due to the money tied up and the state of the farm system). Either that or Halladay has indicated to the organization that he will not be coming back once his contract is done.

- He hasn't drafted well

It's not about quantity, but rather quality. It's critical for them to develop their own elite talent. Complementary players are much easier and cheaper to procure. And teams need elite talent for the most part to compete for playoff spots and to make it to the WS.

Up until the last few years, I don't think that any other team drafted a higher proportion of college prospects than the Jays (note: you could probably find this on Baseball America). And, it's a fallacy that HS prospects are much more expensive to sign than college prospects.

- He doesn't spend wisely/Makes bad signings.

Like I mentioned before this is the main problem. There were always concerns about BJ Ryan's mechanics and JP signed him anyway. Similar health concerns surrounded Burnett, Thomas, and Glaus/Rolen. The Jays even knew of Wells shoulder problems prior to signing his huge extension and still went ahead and signed him. A lot of people have tried to pass this off as something purely the idea of ownership/Godfrey, but I don't entirely buy that. It could very well be that JP was just as scared of losing Wells considering the state of the farm system. Some teams can afford that type of risk, others simply can't. Knowing which type of team you are is critical to these types of decisions. The Yankees can afford Giambi being a bust, but the Jays can't afford taking the risk of signing Halladay to a 7 year $140M extension. If the Angels want to pay Torii Hunter similar type of money as Wells, maybe they can afford that type of risk (although I think it's a dumb signing). But, one dumb signing does not justify another dumb signing.

He has been very quick to sign players the moment that they have a good season. This severely restricts any flexibility that a team can have when the GM keeps handing out longterm contracts. What it means is those players better live up to those contracts, otherwise barring a phenomenal farm system the team is screwed. Contrast the way that JP has operated with the way that the Rays have structured their contracts. The contracts tend to be much shorter in length and have team options (instead of player options). That not only minimizes the risk, but increases the value of their assets as potential trade partners are not worried about having to pay money 3 or 4 years down the road.

So, while JP might be able to make the playoffs in another division, he has clearly shown that he can't here. In fact, I would say that the Jays are much closer to being a 5th place team than they are to making the playoffs. Organizations need to adapt to their circumstances, not the other way around. Ricciardi came into a good situation and had alot of pieces to play with. It's on him if he squandered those assets and didn't bring enough assets in. He came in with a team that had players signed to bloated contracts and that's pretty much what he'll leave behind. It's time to move on and JP's not that special to begin with.

Thank you. I'm sick of everyone trying to feed me the Wilner special around here. When he signed on, he knew how difficult it would be to compete with the big boys. It's not good enough to say, well, how could he have done better, the Yankees and Red Sox have an unfair advantage. Has this not always been the case?

We weren't really close. We haven't been anywhere near close (despite some late season irrelevant runs) for his entire tenure here. He bragged so much to the local scribes and chided them so much for their lack of knowledge about baseball, including firing all of the former scouting staff(even though Griffin actually worked in the front office of the 'Spos for years) so they hate him. He then proceeded (just to put the cherry on top of his arrogance) to annoy or piss off players on his own team (Halladay) and elsewhere (Dunn) to further paint himself into a corner.

He failed, plain and simple. Is it ridiculously difficult in this division? Sure. So what? Them's the rules(and the breaks). Perhaps if he hadn't pissed of the universe he could have corrected his mistakes better.

Live and learn, JP.

Agreed completely with dirtybird. Well said.

I guess every GM will have his supporters, but to not see the writing on the wall with JP when he has had EIGHT seasons of sample size is pretty alarming.

Give him a lot of money to spend and a weaker division, and he might be able to get by. He has been an average GM here, and that is good enough in other divisions some times. However, put him in the AL East and he is dog meat. He inherited the best pitcher in the world and still could not do anything. Pull the plug.

JP is at his best when he has a small budget. He'd make a pretty good manager for a team like Pittsburgh or Kansas City, but as soon as you show him the money, he has no clue what to do. He's like the baseball version of Glen Sather.