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Final report card on Toronto's 2009 season

Posted: Tue Oct 6, 2009 7:24 pm
by LittleOzzy
Where to start, Blue Jays fans?

How about rewinding to May, a month filled with hope and optimism for a Toronto outfit fresh off a surprising 15-9 April to open the 2009 Major League Baseball season.

But then, as quickly as you can say Aaron Hill, the Blue Jays visited Boston, Atlanta and Baltimore, and came away with zero wins and a .185 batting average with runners in scoring position.

Toronto, though, would stay at or above the .500 mark until a 4-3 loss at Baltimore on July 11 dropped the Jays to 44-45.

The bats that were the hottest in baseball in April were silenced for much of August and September. And the rookie pitchers that wowed thousands at Rogers Centre in the opening weeks of the season were becoming increasingly inconsistent and later shut down for the season to protect their arms.

Fans also started to stay away in droves, with a new record for the smallest crowd ever to watch the Blue Jays in their 20-year history set on Sept. 9, when 11,159 saw Canadian Justin Morneau and the Minnesota Twins prevail 4-1.


http://www.cbc.ca/sports/baseball/story ... -wrap.html

This is a must read, great article.

Re: Final report card on Toronto's 2009 season

Posted: Wed Oct 7, 2009 5:05 am
by Mustard_Tiger
I can't read an article that judges defense by fielding percentage, gives Cito Gaston a passing grade, and says Brandon League is an ineffective reliever (his peripherals were among the best in the league this year and he was a victim of bad luck).

Re: Final report card on Toronto's 2009 season

Posted: Wed Oct 7, 2009 9:29 am
by spykelee
Mustard_Tiger wrote:I can't read an article that judges defense by fielding percentage, gives Cito Gaston a passing grade, and says Brandon League is an ineffective reliever (his peripherals were among the best in the league this year and he was a victim of bad luck).


Bad luck? hopefully your kidding with that... I hate Brandon League but that's because he's so classicly bad. I've never seen a pitcher (Rick Ankiel aside) who can throw multiple wild pitches in an inning pretty consistently. The way that last game ended was classic Brandon League. This guy is so inconsistent... for years it's been a what if he puts it all together, think about what he'd be... well, i gots some ground breaking earth shattering news... he's never gonna put it together. He can't consistently throw strikes, and he is an AJ Burnett prototype in that 1 walk or 1 basehit or something can completely throw him off and full blown implosion is all that's left. I love Brandon because he's just so classic like that.

Re: Final report card on Toronto's 2009 season

Posted: Wed Oct 7, 2009 4:47 pm
by Hoopstarr
Yea I was gonna say the same about using fielding %. That is so Jaime Campbell.

Here's a good one from Batters Box: http://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?st ... 4115753551

Re: Final report card on Toronto's 2009 season

Posted: Thu Oct 8, 2009 4:51 pm
by Mustard_Tiger
spykelee wrote:
Mustard_Tiger wrote:I can't read an article that judges defense by fielding percentage, gives Cito Gaston a passing grade, and says Brandon League is an ineffective reliever (his peripherals were among the best in the league this year and he was a victim of bad luck).


Bad luck? hopefully your kidding with that... I hate Brandon League but that's because he's so classicly bad. I've never seen a pitcher (Rick Ankiel aside) who can throw multiple wild pitches in an inning pretty consistently. The way that last game ended was classic Brandon League. This guy is so inconsistent... for years it's been a what if he puts it all together, think about what he'd be... well, i gots some ground breaking earth shattering news... he's never gonna put it together. He can't consistently throw strikes, and he is an AJ Burnett prototype in that 1 walk or 1 basehit or something can completely throw him off and full blown implosion is all that's left. I love Brandon because he's just so classic like that.


You are wrong and don't have any concept of the peripherals I'm talking about. Nor do you understand how League's ERA was affected largely by luck. There's no point in arguing over this, either, because you would have to understand those concepts first to even discuss the issue.

That about sums it up for me, I think.

Re: Final report card on Toronto's 2009 season

Posted: Thu Oct 8, 2009 11:20 pm
by s e n s i
Yeah...what are these peripherals anyway? Not that I don't believe you or anything. Just interested. I mean, by the naked eye, Brandon League is terrible. I don't know how someone can be so unlucky so often. Please divulge.

Re: Final report card on Toronto's 2009 season

Posted: Sat Oct 10, 2009 6:29 am
by Mustard_Tiger
chocolateSensi wrote:Yeah...what are these peripherals anyway? Not that I don't believe you or anything. Just interested. I mean, by the naked eye, Brandon League is terrible. I don't know how someone can be so unlucky so often. Please divulge.

League fared incredibly well in the two pitching stats that are widely regarded as the "best" out there for their predictive value, xFIP and tRA*. (Note: Halladay had the best xFIP in the AL this season for starters).

League had the 9th best xFIP in the AL for relievers. It's a stat where K%, BB%, and GB% play a large role (as those are the stats that a pitcher has the most control over, compared to IF/FB, HR/FB, and LD%).

xFIP info: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/statpages/glossary/

League had the 8th best tRA* in the AL for relievers. It's a stat that shows the expected runs a pitcher will allow based on the 8 outcomes of an AB (K, BB, HBP, GB, LD, OFB, IFB, HR). The * represents regression towards the mean to account for the fluctuations in some of those stats from year-to-year.

tRA info: http://www.statcorner.com/tRAabout.html


Basically, he took a significant step forward this year as a reliever, even if his ERA didn't show it (that was a product of a high BABIP and an inflated HR/FB). He struck out more batters than ever before, and his control was actually elite. It's likely that he'll provide a lot of value next season.

2008: 1.53 K/BB
2009: 3.62 K/BB

Re: Final report card on Toronto's 2009 season

Posted: Sat Oct 10, 2009 6:44 am
by Mustard_Tiger
There are 4 relievers in baseball with a K/BB over 3.50 and a GB% above 50%: Jonathan Broxton, Mariano Rivera, Chad Qualls, and Brandon League.

Re: Final report card on Toronto's 2009 season

Posted: Sat Oct 10, 2009 4:46 pm
by zilby
the second i saw mustard say cito had a passing grade, i stopped reading.

Re: Final report card on Toronto's 2009 season

Posted: Sun Oct 11, 2009 8:09 am
by s e n s i
Mustard_Tiger wrote:
chocolateSensi wrote:Yeah...what are these peripherals anyway? Not that I don't believe you or anything. Just interested. I mean, by the naked eye, Brandon League is terrible. I don't know how someone can be so unlucky so often. Please divulge.

League fared incredibly well in the two pitching stats that are widely regarded as the "best" out there for their predictive value, xFIP and tRA*. (Note: Halladay had the best xFIP in the AL this season for starters).

League had the 9th best xFIP in the AL for relievers. It's a stat where K%, BB%, and GB% play a large role (as those are the stats that a pitcher has the most control over, compared to IF/FB, HR/FB, and LD%).

xFIP info: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/statpages/glossary/

League had the 8th best tRA* in the AL for relievers. It's a stat that shows the expected runs a pitcher will allow based on the 8 outcomes of an AB (K, BB, HBP, GB, LD, OFB, IFB, HR). The * represents regression towards the mean to account for the fluctuations in some of those stats from year-to-year.

tRA info: http://www.statcorner.com/tRAabout.html


Basically, he took a significant step forward this year as a reliever, even if his ERA didn't show it (that was a product of a high BABIP and an inflated HR/FB). He struck out more batters than ever before, and his control was actually elite. It's likely that he'll provide a lot of value next season.

2008: 1.53 K/BB
2009: 3.62 K/BB


Interesting stuff, thanks for sharing. I'd have never, ever thought Brandon League would be among the best in anything, but I guess he has me. His stuff is good no doubt, and when he's on, he's on. It's clearly noticeable. It's the lack of consistent command that throws us off, but I guess he makes up for it with the K's and GB's, as per the xFIP stat. He's the epitome of 'hit or miss' in regards to BABIP, imo. Often times his patent sinking two-seamer (?) catches way too much of the plate resulting in loooong line drives. The rest of the time he's fooling batters.

He's just frustrating to watch, and nerve-racking when he's got a lead behind him, regardless of size. You gotta admit though that he does have some pretty laughable outings.

Personally, I think he should lose the specs. Get some goddamn contact lenses. The only player to look acceptable with the specs was Chacin, but only cause he had alopecia.

Re: Final report card on Toronto's 2009 season

Posted: Tue Oct 13, 2009 12:42 am
by spykelee
Mustard, you don't understand basic communication, because if you did, then you wouldn't come across as an ass all the time. And there's no point arguing about it because it's so blantly obvious, that even you should be able to see it.

Those stats are all fascinating and such and thanks for elaborating but personally, I find all the time in baseball there's wayyyy too much emphasis put on a guys stats. I played baseball at a pretty high level for a number of years. Alot of my judgements on players are passed just by watching them, and watching Brandon League was/is embarassing and always has been.

No doubt he's got the stuff to be absolutely dominant. But those outings have always been few and far between. His whole career has been wildly inconsistent and ineffective. He struggles to hit spots. You don't see Bradon League get alot of checked swings, and alot of weakly hit feeble balls, and for a guy with all his movement, you should see that all the time. I'm not a guy that judges people off stats and percentages and such. I watch them consistently and pass judgement on them. Brandon League is a terriable reliever that's never going to put it together. I don't care how much you chastsize me, and how many numbers you put my way. Perhaps I'm old school, but I like i said, i don't pass judgement on any player off of numbers. As Sherman Hamilton always says, numbers don't lie, but they don't tell the whole truth either. Mariano Rivera, Broxton and Pabelpon and Brandon League... i'd certainly say there's something, or perhaps someone that doesn't belong there, and i don't care what the numbers suggest. Anyone should be able to see that.

Re: Final report card on Toronto's 2009 season

Posted: Tue Oct 13, 2009 5:32 am
by Schad
If anyone is curious how you square the numbers Mustard Tiger posted with League's below-average ERA, here's the answer: really inconvenient HRs. He didn't give up that many, but boy did they destroy his numbers (and our perception of him).

April 12th - two run HR vs. Indians.
June 20th - grand slam vs. Marlins.
July 7th - two run HR vs. Rays.
August 16 - grand slam vs. Rays.

Those four at-bats led to a quarter of his seasonal runs against...remove them and his ERA plummets to 3.38. When you talk about 'unlucky' with a reliever, it's either big HRs or porous defense; the latter wasn't a problem, but the former certainly did him in.

Re: Final report card on Toronto's 2009 season

Posted: Thu Oct 15, 2009 5:23 am
by Mustard_Tiger
spykelee wrote:Mustard, you don't understand basic communication, because if you did, then you wouldn't come across as an ass all the time. And there's no point arguing about it because it's so blantly obvious, that even you should be able to see it.

My main concern is about being right. The rest is just irrelevant noise to me.

Those stats are all fascinating and such and thanks for elaborating but personally, I find all the time in baseball there's wayyyy too much emphasis put on a guys stats. I played baseball at a pretty high level for a number of years. Alot of my judgements on players are passed just by watching them, and watching Brandon League was/is embarassing and always has been.

Once again...you don't have any idea what you are talking about. Bad luck led to his high ERA this year. It's a fact. It isn't an opinion.

No doubt he's got the stuff to be absolutely dominant. But those outings have always been few and far between. His whole career has been wildly inconsistent and ineffective. He struggles to hit spots. You don't see Bradon League get alot of checked swings, and alot of weakly hit feeble balls, and for a guy with all his movement, you should see that all the time. I'm not a guy that judges people off stats and percentages and such. I watch them consistently and pass judgement on them. Brandon League is a terriable reliever that's never going to put it together.

He put it together in a huge way this year, and had some of the best peripherals in baseball for relievers. There's no reason to think his bad luck will continue in the future.

And League gets checked swings and feeble ground balls all the time, so I'm pretty sure you are just selectively remembering what you want to remember (that's the beauty of stats...they are completely objective).

I don't care how much you chastsize me, and how many numbers you put my way.

If you won't even take the time to understand any of the things I'm telling you, then I have no sympathy for your situation.

Perhaps I'm old school, but I like i said, i don't pass judgement on any player off of numbers. As Sherman Hamilton always says, numbers don't lie, but they don't tell the whole truth either.

Citing Sherman Hamilton in an argument isn't the best way to get your point across.

Mariano Rivera, Broxton and Pabelpon and Brandon League... i'd certainly say there's something, or perhaps someone that doesn't belong there, and i don't care what the numbers suggest. Anyone should be able to see that.

Yes...the bad luck that led to League's ERA being much higher than theirs. The point was that their skills are similar (though Rivera and Broxton have better K/BB ratios).

And it was Chad Qualls, btw. Papelbon's skills regressed significantly this season.

Re: Final report card on Toronto's 2009 season

Posted: Thu Oct 15, 2009 5:26 am
by Mustard_Tiger
Schadenfreude wrote:If anyone is curious how you square the numbers Mustard Tiger posted with League's below-average ERA, here's the answer: really inconvenient HRs. He didn't give up that many, but boy did they destroy his numbers (and our perception of him).

April 12th - two run HR vs. Indians.
June 20th - grand slam vs. Marlins.
July 7th - two run HR vs. Rays.
August 16 - grand slam vs. Rays.

Those four at-bats led to a quarter of his seasonal runs against...remove them and his ERA plummets to 3.38. When you talk about 'unlucky' with a reliever, it's either big HRs or porous defense; the latter wasn't a problem, but the former certainly did him in.

Well there's your answer. In addition to the relatively high BABIP.

Re: Final report card on Toronto's 2009 season

Posted: Wed Oct 28, 2009 5:00 am
by Mustard_Tiger