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1B- Brett Wallace
2B- Aaron Hill
3B- Edwin Encarnacion
SS- Alex Gonzalez
C- Ryan Doumit
LF- Adam Lind
CF- Vernon Wells
RF- Travis Snider
DH- Randy Ruiz

P1- Shawn Marcum
P2- Ricky Romero
P3- Scott Richmond
P4- Marc Rzepczynski
P5- Brett Cecil

Set up- Casey Jannsen
Closer- Scott Downs

Considerations:
- Lyle Overbay and someone from the bullpen will be traded for a SP who will replace any of the 2nd to 5th starters in the rotation
- Drabek will start in AA
- Accardo gets dealt for Doumit, or something like that


Lets see what you guys can come up with. have fun!

It's really too early to have much idea what the lineup will be, but if things hold to form I'd expect it to look something like this at the start of the year:

C - John Buck (we signed him to be the starter...the Doumit deal died at that point, IMO)
1B - Randy Ruiz/Brian Dopirak (not because Wallace isn't ready, but because I think they'll try to avoid starting his FA clock too early, and give him some time playing 1B in Las Vegas)
2B - Aaron Hill
SS - Alex Gonzalez
3B - E5
LF - Adam Lind
CF - Vernon Wells
RF - Travis Snider

Opening Day starter - Ricky Romero
#2 - Brett Cecil
#3 - Scott Richmond
#4 - Zip
#5 - Shaun Marcum...possibly Robert Ray/Brad Mills if he has a setback

Setup - Jason Frasor/Brandon League
Closer - Scott Downs


I don't share your confidence that Marcum will be our number one starter out of Spring Training...TJ surgery isn't the killer that it once was, but they'll baby him, and with good reason. If he makes the rotation, I would expect that he will be the fifth starter, allowing them to skip the occasional start and work him back in 5-6 IP at a time.

Neither am I expecting much from Janssen...ever, really. Labrum surgery is a killer; most pitchers never fully recover, though there are exceptions. League had a few massive blowups, but I expect him to share 8th-inning duties with Frasor, who had a terrific season (and might get bundled off mid-year).

As I noted briefly above, we didn't sign John Buck to be a backup, and we didn't give Ramon Castro $1m to play in Las Vegas. Our catching arrangement is basically set, though it wouldn't surprise me if Buck gets moved to a team needing a veteran backup post-injury, especially if Arencibia shows much.

Wallace will start in AAA; I would be surprised if we see him before June, possibly even July, even if he plays well. We just don't have the pressure to rush him and make him a likely Super-2 candidate.

I have Richmond in the #3 slot only because he's right-handed; I would expect that we'll sign at least one more washed up vet, and if Richmond struggles again I wouldn't be too surprised to see him pitching long relief. Litsch could fill that spot as well, but I'm not too hopeful in that regard, either.

I agree that Overbay will be traded, but it won't be (and shouldn't be) for immediate help. We don't need a middling starter, but a gamble on a high-upside, high-bust-potential infielder wouldn't surprise me.

Zach Stewart won't make an appearance until September (he still needs to be stretched out, and they'll rightfully be cautious with him), and Drabek won't make an appearance at all. However, I wouldn't rule out Robert Bell making the NH-to-TO jump in a year; he's already 24, and they might advance him in the same manner as Zip, though he'll be on an innings limit, as well. Likewise, Trystan Magnuson might get a 'show me something' callup late in the year if he does well in AA.


To be clear, I have no idea what I'm talking about, so take all of this with a mouthful of salt.

C Ryan Doumit
1B Brett Wallace
2B Aaron Hill
SS Alex Gonzalez
3B Edwin Encarnacion
LF Adam Lind
CF Vernon Wells
RF Travis Snider
DH Randy Ruiz

**Overbay, Justin Jackson and Jason Frasor dealt to Seattle Mariners for SS Carlos Truinfel and RHP Michael Pineda

**Scott Downs traded to NYY for RHP Dellin Betances

**Accardo and Scott Campbell dealt for Ryan Doumit

Pitchers

LHP Aroldis Chapman
RHP Shaun Marcum
LHP Ricky Romero
RHP Dustin McGowan
LHP Brett Cecil
-----
RHP Scott Richmond
RHP Jesse Litsch
LHP David Purcey
LHP Mark Rzepczynski

BP

Closer: Brandon League
SetUp: Janssen
RHP Roenicke
RHP Camp
RHP Hayhurst
LHP Tallet
LHP Carlson
RHP Zech Zincola

I think the BP is actually going to be our downfall

EDIT: Take my Aroldis Chapman signing with a mouthful of Drano. That'll clean you out.

kelso wrote:1B- Brett Wallace
2B- Aaron Hill
3B- Edwin Encarnacion
SS- Alex Gonzalez
C- Ryan Doumit
LF- Adam Lind
CF- Vernon Wells
RF- Travis Snider
DH- Randy Ruiz

P1- Shawn Marcum
P2- Ricky Romero
P3- Scott Richmond
P4- Marc Rzepczynski
P5- Brett Cecil

Set up- Casey Jannsen
Closer- Scott Downs

Considerations:
- Lyle Overbay and someone from the bullpen will be traded for a SP who will replace any of the 2nd to 5th starters in the rotation
- Drabek will start in AA
- Accardo gets dealt for Doumit, or something like that


Lets see what you guys can come up with. have fun!

For some reason, I thought that you were posting the players in batting order as well. I almost vomited with that order!

1B- Lyle Overbay (gone at trading deadline; traded for hard throwing lefthander in A ball), Replaced by Adam Lind
2B- Aaron Hill
3B- Edwin Encarnacion (gone by allstar break; traded for catcher in double A); Replaced by Brett Wallace
SS- Alex Gonzalez (gone after trading deadline; traded for reliever in single A); Replaced by John MacDonald.
C- Buck (gone after trading deadline, traded for A ball outfielder); Replaced by Raul Chavez
LF- Adam Lind, moves to 1st after Overbay dealt; Replaced by Joey Gathright, then Wells
CF- Vernon Wells, moved to LF with Gathright at CF.
RF- Jose Bautista
DH- Travis Snider

P1- Scott Richmond (traded at deadline for power hitting OF in double A; replaced by Jesse Litsch)P2- Ricky Romero (DL'd in June, out with, what else, Tommy John), replaced by Marc Rzepczynski)
P3- Shawn Marcum
P4- Brett Cecil
P5- David Purcey/Casey Janssen (this will be an see saw battle between the two).

Setup (left)- Downs (traded for package of AA players), replaced by Tallet
Setup (right)- League
Closer- Josh Roenicke

I'll do you one better:

Batting Order (Opening day)

1) Bautista
2) Hill
3) Encarnacion
4) Lind
5) Overbay
6) Wells
7) Snider
8) Buck
9) Gonzalez

SP- Scott Richmond

Batting Lineup, last game of the year

1) Gathright (CF) (starts at AAA, ends up here. Does exceedingly well. Can't bat but steals bases every time)
2) Hill (Ok, but not stellar season)
3) Wallace (show some glimpses of promise; better at 3rd than projected)
4) Lind (best hitter, allstar appearance, home run derby participant)
5) Snider (DH) (good 1st half, mediocre 2nd half)
6) Wells (hammies bother him again, moves to LF, Jays talk buyout)
7) Bautista (moves around a lot but hangs in at RF at the end; terrible leadoff guy but improves once removed from that position.)
8) Macdonald (gold glove calibre on the field, mendoza line at the plate)
9) Chavez (come on strong, Jays talk to him about extension)

SP- Dustin McGowan (1st start in 2 years; lasts 2 innings before leaving with torn ACL and MCL in both left and right knees. Gets a 2 year, $500,000 per year reward. See you in another 2 years)

Projected finish (59-103)

Gaston- will just resign in June due to "health reasons". Re-assigned to roving instructor before settling on his promised consultant. Replaced by Nick Leyva

AA- resists temptation to call up players doing well in farm system like Drabek, Cooper and Moises Sierra. Will continue to preach patience but starts eluding to "mistakes from the past" and "that guy" whenever press asks about the struggles of this season.

Beeston- starts hiring back more old scouts back as consultants. Gillick returns mid-season as executive consultant, advisor to the president. Decides to honor the 1993 World Series team one player at a time each week. First up, Ed Sprague.

I think the BP is actually going to be our downfall

I think that the 95 games that we'll lose will be our downfall. Unless two of our young starters are absolutely lights-out, we are going to be very, very bad.

What has changed other than Doc being dealt. He was responsible for around 18 wins this year. Honestly, I think we can get half of that back from the replacement.

Vernon Wells will supposedly be healthy, we'll have a full year of Snider who will be more adjusted, Lind, Hill and you could even say a full year of Randy Ruiz. We'll still be able to hit.

The loss of Scutaro and Barajas will hurt this team though...pretty severely too.

Just looking at the bullpen makes me wanna actually swallow antifreeze so I can't see them pitch..lol

jalenrose#5 wrote:What has changed other than Doc being dealt. He was responsible for around 18 wins this year. Honestly, I think we can get half of that back from the replacement.

Vernon Wells will supposedly be healthy, we'll have a full year of Snider who will be more adjusted, Lind, Hill and you could even say a full year of Randy Ruiz. We'll still be able to hit.

The loss of Scutaro and Barajas will hurt this team though...pretty severely too.

Just looking at the bullpen makes me wanna actually swallow antifreeze so I can't see them pitch..lol

Doc had a WAR of 7.3, and it's unlikely that those taking his spot in the order will be much above replacement level, so knock off ~6 wins off the bat.

Scutaro's WAR was ~4 better than Gonzalez, so knock 'em off.

Overbay is worth a couple wins (seriously...he's actually decent!), and those are likely gone. I doubt that Dopirak/Ruiz/whoever plays far above replacement-level at 1st, so knock off at least one win.

Rolen was worth close to three wins, even though he didn't play the full season. E5 was literally replacement-level, and likely will remain that way.


So losing those four players eliminates something like 14 wins. Trading one or more of our back-end pitchers will cost another game or two. If we shave those 15 wins off of our expected total from last year (84-78), you get 69-93, which sounds about right.

LieCheatandSteal- well done!

No, I didn't do them in hitting order, and to be honest I just wanted to get some people thinking about it see what we have by way of a lineup right now. Kind of depressing, yet weirdly curious as to how these guys are going to develop. I became a Jays fan around 1982 when the team was going through the same kind of rebuild/build phase (for different reasons of course). I loved those teams of the early to late 80's and we had some great ball players then. After we choked up 3-1 in 85, you knew the team was going to figure it out. Coming back to win the AL East 4 out of the next 7 years, with two Championships, was an awesome ride as a fan.

I agree with the "high upside potential" starter as a target move. Someone like Ubaldo Jimenez before the start of last season. You knew the guy had it in him, but he had to show you first. Thats the kind of pitcher I would look for, as you could probably get him on the cheaper side of the fence, as opposed to targeting someone with a better pedigree coming up.

1) I really don't see Ricky as ace next year. Call it loss of direction without Doc around, sophmore jinx, the league catching up to him, whatever. He's going to struggle and struggle hard, maybe even sent back down for a couple of weeks ala Litsch was 2 years ago. I think the ace next year, and he'll probably get the opening day nod next year, will be Scott Richmond, the "Ian White" of the Jays (little regarded player who works hard and eventually becomes an important cog on a team). However, I do think that, because he doesn't have much upside, he would get traded for the rebuilding process (much like, interestingly enough, Ian White).

2) Chapman is a pipe dream, right? Cuban defect, free to reign for the first time, going for the big time and chooses... Toronto? No offense to the city but if I were him, I would choose NYC unfortunately.

3) Overbay is decent but not the price and position of power he plays. Funny enough, if he were a 3rd baseman putting up those numbers, I wouldn't actually mind. It's a position thing for me. At the trade deadline, I can see him traded in a "Hinske" type of deal (ie a team that would give a mid range prospect to get a corner fielder that could provide a bat off the bench and hopefully get better because of a change of scenary).

Buck 8th
Lind 3rd (Overbay's gone before ST, at least I'm sure that's the plan, just not positive they find a match)
Hill 2nd
Gonzalez 9th/1st
Encarnacion 6th
??? 1st/9th (FA or trade for Overbay but there's a guy still out there)
Wells 4th (it won't take long for him to lose this spot, but I think he's gonna start with this spot again)
Snider 5th
Dopirak 7th
Castro
MacDonald
Bautista
Gathright


Romero
Richmond
Rzepzcynski
Cecil
Marcum (not how I see them as starters, just how I think the rotation will breakdown)

Downs
Frasor
League
Accardo
Carlson
Tallet
Zinicola

Marcum
Romero
Richmond
Rzepczynski
Cecil
-----
Listch
Purcey
Tallet
Mills

Downs
League
Frasor
Accardo
Tallet
Hayhurst


LF Gathright
2B Hill
1B Lind
CF Wells
DH Ruiz
3B Encarnation
RF Snider
C Buck
SS Gonzalez

I'll have to differ from Schad and a couple other posters on Marcum's return. The fact is that they've already given him a very generous recovery period as he could have returned late last year but the team decided to keep him fresh for 2010. Therefore I don't think he'll be babied at all and the ace spot (if you can even call it that) will be his to lose. Romero is the natural choice for the second starter, followed by Rzep, Richmond and Cecil, although all three of thee guys (particularly the latter two) could be subbed in and out of the rotation based on performance. I'm counting on Litsch to return strong and decidedly reclaim a spot in the rotation around the ASG. People seem to undervalue him a bit; the fact is that he's been the team's best starter not named Halladay.

On the offensive side Gathright gets the starting nod purely for the lack of anyone else remotely resembling a leadoff man, and doesn't embarrass himself. I wouldn't be surprised to see something like .270/.330 with 25 steals, although I'd be equally unsurprised to see him be a bench player with his ABs going to the more proven Bautista. The bottom half of the lineup looks better than the top as Gathright is unproven, Hill isn't a prototypical 2, and there's of course a good chance that Vernon is straightup bad, while there are a few guys (Snider in particular, but also Encarnation, Buck and even Gonzalez who are capable of being solid power producers for their slots. Bautista is the prototypical superutility '6th man' player, and the first replacement in case of injury.

Batting Lineup

RF: Randy Ruiz
2B: Aaron Hill
DH: Adam Lind
LF: Travis Snider
CF: Vernon Wells
1B: Lyle Overbay
C: Ramon Castro
3B: Edwin Encarancion
SS: Alex Gonzalez

-----------------------------

I'm not sure who's going to lead off, but Ruiz had the highest OBP last year after Scutaro.

Pitching Lineup

Ricky Romero
Brett Cecil
Mark Rzepczynski
Scott Richmond
Brad Mills/Shaun Marcum

Long season ahead...