John Sickels BJ's Top 20

-MetA4- · Post #1 » by **-MetA4-** » Wed Dec 23, 2009 12:03 am

1) Brett Wallace, 3B, Grade B+: If he can't handle third base, it gives the Jays another option at first if David Cooper's power doesn't develop. Didn't hit quite as well as expected last year but I still believe in the bat.

2) Zach Stewart, RHP, Grade B+: I like him a lot, too....could be a number two starter or closer, only role is unclear. Stuff slightly better than Drabek's I think.

3) Kyle Drabek, RHP, Grade B+: Fully recovered from surgery and looks like a fine number two/three starter to me, assuming he keeps his head on straight.

4) Travis d'Arnaud, C, Grade B: Borderline B-. Numbers aren't spectacular but he's very young and I think the bat will continue to develop.

5) Chad Jenkins, RHP, Grade B-: Borderline B, but would like to see some pro data. Could end up as a B+ next year if he puts things together quickly. A rotation of Drabek/Stewart/Jenkins could spin a lot of quality innings if everyone pans out.

6) David Cooper, 1B, Grade B-: Borderline C+. Disappointing season in Double-A but I can still see him developing into an Overbay-type regular.

7) Josh Roenicke, RHP, Grade C+: Borderline B- but at age 27 it is hard to rate that grade. Great stuff, can close if the command is there.

8) Henderson Alvarez, RHP, Grade C+: Projectable and young with excellent command.

9) Carlos Perez, C, Grade C+: GCL catcher is a long way away, but has a good balance of offensive and defensive potential.

10) Brad Mills, LHP, Grade C+: Couldn't replicate '08 performance but '09 numbers at Vegas aren't bad considering the environment. Could be useful inning-eater control type.

11) Jake Marisnick, OF, Grade C+: Very toolsy, but need pro data to see how raw he is or is not before ranking higher.

12) Eric Thames, OF, Grade C+: I like this bat a lot, but he needs to stay healthy, apparently a big "if" for him.

13) Brad Emaus, 2B, Grade C+: I think he's better than what he showed at New Hampshire, could put up much bigger numbers in Vegas.

14) Ryan Schimpf, 2B, Grade C+: At best, a cross between Dustin Pedroia and Frank Catalanotto. At worst, a Tony Graffanino style utility player. Need data from higher levels to tell more.

15) Dan Farquhar, RHP, Grade C+: Command is an issue, but overpowering when on. Could help quickly as a relief option.

16) Robert Bell, RHP, Grade C+: Spectacular stats in the Florida State League, but need to see if stuff will hold up against better hitters. Certainly a sleeper.

17) J.P. Arencibia, C, Grade C: Baseball America likes him a lot more than this, but both personal observation and his performance in Vegas make me very skeptical at this point. Power is there, but his approach to hitting is terrible. I see him as a reserve catcher.

18) Justin Jackson, SS, Grade C: Awesome tools but right now he just doesn't do anything with the bat with no signs of growth. Injuries also an issue. But bottom line there are just guys I like better at this point.

19) Reidier Gonzalez, RHP, Grade C: Ground ball/control artist added to 40-man roster, could help as inning-eater or a bullpen asset.

20) Tim Collins, LHP, Grade C: Continues to put up outstanding statistics, pretty good stuff considering his 5-7 height. Should make a fine LOOGY. Note that other Grade C guys listed below (particularly Ahrens, Dopirak, Liebel, Magnuson, Tolisano, and Pastornicky) could easily slot in here, but I wanted to point Collins out since he's very interesting.

OTHER GRADE C players: Kevin Ahrens, 3B; Brian Dopirak, 1B; Ryan Goins, SS; Yan Gomes, C; K. C. Hobson, 1B; Andrew Liebel, RHP; Trystan Magnuson, RHP; Darin Mastroianni, OF; Tyler Pastornicky, SS; Luis Perez, LHP; Gustavo Pierre, SS; Welinton Ramirez, OF; Robert Ray, RHP; Moises Sierra, OF; Egan Smith, LHP; John Tolisano, 2B; Daniel Webb, RHP; Kenny Wilson, OF; Zech Zincola ,RHP.

The Blue Jays system was thin, and greatly benefits by the recent addition of Wallace, Drabek, and d'Arnaud this month. Stewart and Roenicke were acquired in trades this summer.

The Jays under former general manager J.P. Ricciardi took a lot of flak for focusing in polished college players in the draft. However, even when they brought in tools players, such as the high school hitters drafted in 2007 and various Latin American investments, the results were poor, leading me to wonder if the problems are as much in player development and coaching as much as in the drafting. The debacle of the 2009 draft is a huge blow: failing to sign the second, third, and fourth round picks speaks to serious problems with the Jays organization as a whole and hampers depth at the lower levels of the system for '10 and beyond.

In any event, the trades of the last six months help, and even beyond that the system is not completely barren, particularly with pitching. There are the makings of a good bullpen in the system, and if the top group of pitching comes close to meeting expectations, the future rotation looks solid. The hitting looks thin.

Post #2 » by **Schad** » Wed Dec 23, 2009 12:08 am

Heh, Sickels' post-trade top-20 is better than Christmas. Bets on A- guys? I think both Wallace and Drabek make it, with Stewart the only B+.

-MetA4- · Post #3 » by **-MetA4-** » Wed Dec 23, 2009 12:27 am

Schadenfreude wrote:Heh, Sickels' post-trade top-20 is better than Christmas. Bets on A- guys? I think both Wallace and Drabek make it, with Stewart the only B+.

Dont see it.

B+ Drabek
B+ Wallace
B Stewart
B d'Arnaud

Sickels only rated Dominic Brown a B+ (which is getting some heat) and he also mentioned that Drabek would probably be a B+ at the time of the trade (although I'm sure he could re-think that).

Post #4 » by **Schad** » Wed Dec 23, 2009 12:28 am

My guess on Wallace was based on his A- rank last year, and in the comments at one point he mentioned that he'd considered rating Drabek higher than B+, but yeah...that's probably a bit optimistic.

Relentless88 · Post #5 » by **Relentless88** » Wed Dec 23, 2009 7:34 am

Can someone post this list? Not sure where to find it.

rtcaino · Post #6 » by **rtcaino** » Wed Dec 23, 2009 12:03 pm

http://www.minorleagueball.com/

Not up yet.

LBJSeizedMyID · Post #7 » by **LBJSeizedMyID** » Wed Dec 23, 2009 3:11 pm

I love John Sickels and think based on potential right now his projections are accurate. Wallace took a step back last year with no "real" growth.

Michael Bradley · Post #8 » by **Michael Bradley** » Wed Dec 23, 2009 3:43 pm

Sickels rated Wallace an A- prior to this season, but I doubt he gives him the same grade after the 2009 season he had.

I'm guessing B+ for both Wallace and Drabek with everyone else a B and below.

-MetA4- · Post #9 » by **-MetA4-** » Wed Dec 23, 2009 8:28 pm

Its up, edited first post to include it.

The Flying Gent · Post #10 » by **The Flying Gent** » Wed Dec 23, 2009 8:37 pm

Man, without the Rolen/Halladay trades the best we had was a couple of B- guys. At least we're going in the right direction now, and if AA nails the upcoming draft in which we appear to be big spenders things will have turned around pretty quick. Here's hoping things work out.

Oh and it's interesting to see Stewart come out ahead of Drabek. Wasn't aware that he was that highly regarded.

-MetA4- · Post #11 » by **-MetA4-** » Wed Dec 23, 2009 8:51 pm

The Flying Gent wrote:
Oh and it's interesting to see Stewart come out ahead of Drabek. Wasn't aware that he was that highly regarded.

drabek/stewart

It is a tough call between the two. I’ve seen both in person. Stewart has more velocity and movement on his fastball. Drabek has better breaking stuff. I went back and forth between Stewart/Drabek at 2/3 on this list.

I might change it back when I do the 50/50. We’ll see. As stated, this is preliminary and subject to change.

Post #12 » by **OldNo7** » Wed Dec 23, 2009 8:54 pm

The Stewart/Drabek/Jenkins post made me very happy.

rtcaino · Post #13 » by **rtcaino** » Wed Dec 23, 2009 8:58 pm

Obviously the most surprising this is the Drebek/Stewart flip.

I'm sure most cusual observers would have had them the other way around. However, Josh's (John's) optimism toward Stewart is positive.

I look forward to the season to see how our shiney new prospects perform.

rtcaino · Post #14 » by **rtcaino** » Wed Dec 23, 2009 9:08 pm

OldNo7 wrote:The Stewart/Drabek/Jenkins post made me very happy.

100%

Especially in consideration of the guys projected to fill out the rotation. Pretty solid.

Post #15 » by **Schad** » Wed Dec 23, 2009 9:38 pm

TJ Caino wrote:
OldNo7 wrote:The Stewart/Drabek/Jenkins post made me very happy.

100%

Especially in consideration of the guys projected to fill out the rotation. Pretty solid.

Plus another guy in Alvarez who could be quite good.

I'm surprised how at low he ranked Sierra, though; I understand being worried that he might not have the power to hack his way through the system, but I would have expected him to crack the top 20. Schimpf at 14 surprises me a bit, as well.

LieCheatSteal · Post #16 » by **LieCheatSteal** » Wed Dec 23, 2009 10:18 pm

Man, these projections are so subjective. I've seen in others Sierra ranked in the top 3 (I think the recent Battersbox website did). How the hell did JP get Stewart and Roenicke for Rolens? And how freakin' brutal did he leave the farm system that, under Ash and Gillick, was once one of the best? And where is Jerolman? One bad year and everything goes to hell.

Hoopstarr · Post #17 » by **Hoopstarr** » Wed Dec 23, 2009 10:21 pm

It seems we were sold some snake oil with Drabek. We were lead to believe he was a #1 starter in the summer and now people are saying 2/3, which is fine too, but a big difference obviously. Great to hear scouts liking Stewart more and more. I guess the Rolen trade was an even bigger steal than we thought. I agree that Sierra should be higher. Roenicke should be behind Alvarez. And how could would this list look with Paxton and Eliopoulos?

Post #18 » by **Schad** » Wed Dec 23, 2009 10:38 pm

Hoopstarr wrote:It seems we were sold some snake oil with Drabek. We were lead to believe he was a #1 starter in the summer and now people are saying 2/3, which is fine too, but a big difference obviously. Great to hear scouts liking Stewart more and more. I guess the Rolen trade was an even bigger steal than we thought. I agree that Sierra should be higher. Roenicke should be behind Alvarez. And how could would this list look with Paxton and Eliopoulos?

From everything I've read, the difference with Drabek comes down to whether you believe that he's end up with a plus third pitch or not...it'd be hard for him to reach #1 status without it, and opinion seems to be split on whether it will come together. Still, a rotation of #2 starters ain't the worst thing in the world.

Michael Bradley · Post #19 » by **Michael Bradley** » Wed Dec 23, 2009 10:44 pm

I don't think too many people projected Drabek as a #1 starter prior to the trade. He was just the best pitching prospect the Phillies had, and a much better option (combining upside and service time) than some of the other names we were hearing about (Saunders, Happ, etc). Drabek as a potential 2-3 if he pans out is about right, IMO. No one should be expecting him to be an ace.

This is definitely not the calibre of farm system that Ash was left with, or Ricciardi for that matter. AA has a lot of work to do.

Hoopstarr · Post #20 » by **Hoopstarr** » Wed Dec 23, 2009 10:51 pm

LieCheatSteal wrote:Man, these projections are so subjective. I've seen in others Sierra ranked in the top 3 (I think the recent Battersbox website did). How the hell did JP get Stewart and Roenicke for Rolens? And how freakin' brutal did he leave the farm system that, under Ash and Gillick, was once one of the best? And where is Jerolman? One bad year and everything goes to hell.

1. Because he has always made great trades and 2. because 13 of JP's picks are on the active roster. The thing with rankings is that they favor tools and potential heavily. The Jays have drafted less heralded players under JP, but they made it to the majors quickly. The 03 and 04 drafts are looking good right now and it's still too early to judge the others.