NATS OFFSEASON/FUTURE OUTLOOK

[Jollay]

A great way to end the home slate the other night against the Mets--Maxwell's walk-off homerun to sweep the Mets, and a standing ovation from the crowd (in the mid 20,000's) with Jim Riggleman giving a sincere thanks. Very positive way to close out the home schedule. With the sweep of the Braves on the road, the Nats finished on a seven-game winning streak to close the season at 59-103.

Future seems really bright for the Nats, and it definitely seems like the Nats are really focused on giving a good game-day experience, regardless of the sub-par team on the field. But its hard to imagine the Nats won't drastically improve next year, even without factoring Storen and Strasburg into the equation right away.

I have put a deposit down on season tickets myself for next year, likely next to the visitors' bullpen (great hazing location) and near to the CF bars and those tasty frozen Hurricanes they sell there. So I hope to make this forum alot more current next year as I will be watching many more games.

This thread will serve as the offseason thread for the Nats until spring!!!

[Jollay]

OVERVIEW

On a recent interview with Bill Rohland and Mike Wise on 106.7 FAN, GM Stan Kasten basically said the team was looking for offense through FA last year, but this year he'll be looking for a couple arms, instead. He specifically mentioned he coveted a veteran starter to eat innings and sought 1-2 arms in the bullpen.

That seems logical, as the Nats seem generally set in the field for 2010, with only the middle infield a bit unsettled (will Guzman move to second, can the Nats unload him, etc.). The FA market for starters isn't great, but there's definitely some guys out there that can help.

The Nats can also afford to overpay, as their payroll is really only burdened by Dunn (12 mil), Guzman (8 mil), and Zimmy (signed through 2013) next year, and Guzman and Dunn's contracts are only for one more year. Willingham and Olsen are scheduled for arbitration, but Willingham should only get around five million, and Olsen more like two to three.

It would seem the Nats might look for a righty starter, as lefties Lannan, Olsen, and Detwiller very likely will all be part of the rotation next year. Options could include Jason Marquis (EDIT--SIGNED), Brett Myers, or the Nats could also roll the dice with names such as Rich Harden (small gamble) or Ben Sheets (big gamble). John Lackey is another guy the Nats could pursue.

The big question of course, is when will the savior arrive? The smart money is not until next September at the earliest. Attendence and revenue is fairly stable despite another dismal season, so the Nats can afford to wait and develop kid Strasburg as necessary. My guess is next September at the earliest.

To follow: Position by position assessment of the Nationals current and projected 2010 roster...

[Jollay]

CATCHER

Jesus Flores was having a good season (.301, 4HR in 93AB, 42% RTO stealing) before a foul tip in early May 9 from the D-Backs' Chris Young put him in a world of relative hurt. He was on the DL with a hurt shoulder until September, when he was activated and proclaimed fit for pinch-hitting and bullpen sessions, but not full-time catching.

Then a few days later it was revealed he had a torn labrum, and he was done for the season. He underwent surgery on September 16th, and while it is said he will be fine for Spring Training, one has to wonder. It was said he was never 100% from opening day, and you wonder if the Nationals training staff botched his whole situation, especially when he was brought back in September.

Flores turns 25 this October and is still thought of as the now and immediate future at catcher. In Flores' stead, Wil Nieves and Josh Bard did an adequate, although very pedestrian job. Nieves, a journeyman his whole career, hit .257 but with little pop. Bard hit for less average, but did have 6HR. Nieves threw out 28 percent of runners trying to steal, Bard 27 percent, which put them both at slightly below average but certainly acceptable.

Bard made 1.6 million last year and would be an acceptable candidate to bring back, but he is a free agent. Nieves made the minimum and is also an acceptable candidate to bring back. With no immediate help ready to make the big leagues, the Nats will have to look to the FA market if they do not retain one or both, or might look to upgrade regardless.

The market is thin, but several players might fit well as short-term solutions. Rod Barajas had a good season in Toronto but might require more money than the Nats would be willing to pay for a part-time starter if Flores is healthy. Ex-National Brian Schneider did not have a good year but is available, and might be an attractive option for his LH bat and presumably very reasonable price tag. A veteran who could manage the Nats young pitchers would certainly make sense, such as perhaps Jason Kendall, Henry Blanco, or Jason LaRue.

But although the Nats will be looking for veteran help, especially if they don't resign Bard, and they have money, don't expect the Nats to tie up much cash in multi-year deals or even too much in a one-year. That's because, although they are still a few years away, the Nats have two very impressive catching prospects on the horizon.

The first is Derek Norris, recently named the Nats' minor league player of the year for his season at single-A Hagerstown. Norris, a fourth round pick in 2007, led the league with a .413 OBP, and finished second in the league with 23HR.

The second is Adrian Nieto, a 5th round pick in 2008. The Cuban-born Nieto, who defected to Florida when he was four and became a talented switch-hitting catcher in his teens, is miles away offensively but has elicited comparisons to Ivan Rodriguez for his arm and defense. While I can think of a thousand catchers who have elicited these comparisons over the last 20 years and ended up nowhere near Rodriguez--there is much reason for the Nats to be excited about Nieto long-term.

In short, look for the Nats to carefully monitor Flores' rehab progress, and stand reasonably pat in FA unless there is a setback. There will be no hurry to procure a vet catcher in the initial stages of FA, and they can always get a similar catcher to Bard in the Spring, as they did when the Red Sox made him available because George Kottaras was out of options.

EDIT--NATS SIGN IVAN RODRIGUEZ

Stand reasonably pat in FA? Wrong. The Nats inked Rodriguez to a two-year deal for six million at the onset of the Winter Meetings. Universal consensus was the Nationals overpaid and unnecessarily gave an extra year, but its hard to get too upset with this move. Even in a down year Rodriguez was reasonably productive (.247, 10HR) and still has a great arm. He will be an important stabilizing factor for a young staff and keep the position warm until Flores is ready.

The Nats identified the guy they wanted and got him. Tough to fault a team with the Nats' payroll and losing reputation overpaying a tad for him.

[Jollay]

FIRST BASE

It seems Adam Dunn will likely be a first baseman next year with the emergence of Josh Willingham in left field. Injuries or a lack of progress from Elijah Dukes could change that, but it is likely the Nats will project Dunn as their first baseman next year.

Dunn was a smashing success and a crowd favorite in his Nats debut. He batted .267 and mashed 38 homeruns, and sported a robust .398 OBP—all about typical for Dunn. He did fail to put up his sixth consecutive 40 HR season, perhaps disappointing to Dunn, but hardly much of one to the Nats. It was an impressive offensive season nonetheless, especially considering Dunn had a long year participating in the World Baseball Classic before the season.

Dunn batted cleanup between Ryan Zimmerman and Willingham, and benefitted tremendously when Willingham got hot behind him in the early Summer. The two righties gave Dunn some nice protection, although opposing managers generally still considered Dunn the bigger danger to hurt them with his monster bombs.

Unlike some previous years, Dunn also actually was just as potent against LH pitchers, with a virtually identical batting average and a greater HR rate. His OBP slipped a little versus lefty hurlers, but Dunn’s ability to hit lefties was a major asset to the team.

Dunn’s defense, however, was generally abhorrent. He spent 62 games in left field, and 22 in right, and committed eight errors despite being taken out in the later stages of some games. In addition Dunn misjudged several fly balls and liners that were generously ruled as hits by the kind-hearted official scorer. While some of that could be attributed to Dunn learning the new park’s ins and outs, most of it was just horrible, horrible fielding.

Dunn hardly played a gold glove-like first base like free-agent prize Mark Teixeira ended up doing in New York, but his performance was far more palatable there than in the outfield. Dunn is signed for one more year at 12 million dollars. Depending on the Nats performance next year, the Nats have the option of dealing Dunn at the deadline next year, but there are no real alternatives presently for them at first base.

Utility man Mike Morse, acquired from the Mariners for Ryan Langerhans last June, plays a lot of first base. Morse, almost Dunn-like at 6’5” 230, batted .250 and hit 3HR in just 52 AB. He can spell Dunn at first and provide a slight improvement defensively. Despite his height Morse has also spent time at second and third base, as well as the outfield. He will likely fill one of the Nats’ bench spots next year.

Big Brad Eldred had a good year at AAA Syracuse last year (.269, 17HR) and could be an option to fill a bench spot if Morse is not retained, but doesn’t have the versatility Morse does and is not thought of as a likely long-term answer for the big league club.

There was a lot of speculation the Nats might unload Dunn at the deadline last year, but that was never a serious option. That’s because one of the Nats’ best prospects—1B. Chris Marrero--is still at least a year away. The 20-year old Marrero had a good season at Class A Potomac with a .287 BA and 16HR, and was promoted to Class AA Harrisburg late in the season, where he performed adequately. Whether or not Dunn is resigned in 2011, the plan is for Marrero, the first round pick in 2006, to hopefully join the big league club then.

[Jollay]

THIRD BASE

The Nats are set here through 2013 by virtue of signing Ryan Zimmerman to a new contract this Spring. Until this year Zimmerman had performed capably, but many wondered if the Nats had made a major mistake passing on Ryan Braun and Troy Tulowitzki when they selected Z with the fourth pick in the 2005 MLB draft.

People have stopped wondering. Zimmerman had a career year, batting .292 with 33HR and 106 RBI, and playing Gold-Glove calibur defense at the hot corner. He was clearly the team's MVP, and would have been on other teams alot less miserable than the Nationals. Only Zimmerman's clutch hitting needs to improve, but there's no reason to believe that it won't--and its not like he got much practice "in the clutch" last year.

Z had by far the best protection he's ever had batting behind him in Adam Dunn, but it was clear that he grew as a player (and a leader) regardless of his new cleanup protection. With a fat new contract and an almost historically bad pitching staff, it was a great testament to Zimmerman that he continued to give 110 percent every night.

Zimmerman committed 17 errors and his .963 fielding percentage was only middle of the pack in the NL, but don't be fooled. Zimmerman made a great number of fantastic plays in the field and displayed impressive range (second only to Andy Laroche in range factor). Even if Zimmerman doesn't get recognized with a Gold Glove, you have to figure one is in his future.

If Zimmerman gets hurt, the Nats are in serious trouble regardless of who they bring in next year or how their other guys improve. Fast Willie Harris or Mike Morse can fill in here on a temporary basis but it better be a 15day thing at worst....

[Jollay]

MIDDLE INFIELD

As Manny Acta told it in Spring 2009, there was a good chance Anderson Hernandez was the Nats' long-term solution at second base. That ridiculously flawed assessment, along with thinking Austin Kearns had improved his swing with some mechanical adjustments, makes you wonder why the Indians and Astros wanted so BADLY to hire Acta last week...(congrats Indians).

By jettisoning Hernandez and fat Ronnie Belliard, who suddenly and miraculously ran the bases much faster as a Dodger, the Nats acknowledged it was time to start over here. And so they have. They also explored trading Cristian Guzman and his salary, but were unable to do so. They will continue to, but probably will be content to let him finish out 2010 in DC without the right deal, and let his contract expire, as they will likely have to pay a decent part of his 2010 salary to move him anyway.

Guzman, 30, had a generally subpar year. He batted .284 with 6HR, and scored 74 runs, but only sported a .306 on-base percentage. Although that's about his career OBP average, in recent years Guzman did significantly better than that, and the Nats need someone who can get on base much more than that in the #2 hole, or really anywhere.

Significantly more distressing was Guzman committed 20 errors and showed limited to poor range at SS. The Nats cannot afford similar poor defense at such a vital position next year, so if Guzman is around, they will try and move him to second base. Reportedly Mike Rizzo and Riggleman have already asked Guzman to move, but Guzman was supposedly shocked and not enthusiastic.

It is possible the Nationals will pursue a SS in free agency, but it is unlikely because of the emergence of Ian Desmond. Originally a third round pick in 2004, Desmond was always relatively high on the teams' radar, but never really hit enough (routinely .230-.265 in the minors) to get anybody excited. But a breakout year between AA and AAA last year (batted .354 at AAA) changed all that.

After being called up Desmond performed admirably, batting .280 with 4HR in 89 AB. Most impressively he showed no fear, even contributing a home run and 4 RBI in his debut, an 8-7 win over the Phillies. He still has a steep learning curve and will make mistakes and be inconsistent in the field, but he definitely appears to have the inside track to start at short on opening day. He also brings some speed and athleticism to the middle infield, which the Nats appear to put a priority on.

Alberto Gonzalez does not bring much speed or athleticism to the picture but he played a steady second base, and can also play short. He is probably destined for a utility-type career but could be useful in the event of an injury or a position shift for Desmond.

Willie Harris will be on the roster next year as he is under contract, and he provides a useful left-handed bat. His best position in the infield is second base and can field the position well. In the event of injury, a trade of Guzman, or Desmond falters, he could be in the mix here. Although he only hit .235 last year, Harris will walk alot (.364 OBP)--and "fast" Willie can still run (11SB). He's purely a stop-gap utility player though, obviously.

EDIT-Nats sign Eric Bruntlett and Adam Kennedy

Both are good value signings, Bruntlett to a minor league deal, and Kennedy to a one-year, 1.25 million one (with an option for 2011). Bruntlett will compete to make the team as an utility player, while Kennedy is slated to start at second base.

Kennedy, 34, had a good year with the A's in 2009, batting .289 with 11HR and 63RBIs in 586 AB (the second highest total of his 11-year career). He got on base (.348 OBP) and stole 20 bases, and played second and third base. At second, which is most relevent from the Nats' standpoint, he has a career .983 fielding average, although he only had a .967 one last year. He did have a solid range factor, at 4.45, which put him about middle of the pack for second basemen.

Kennedy was not what the Nats were hoping for to upgrade their defense significantly (see Orlando Hudson), but he's a good hustle player that will leave it all on the field. Nice to have a lefty bat down in the lineup however (or perhaps batting second).

[Jollay]

OUTFIELD

The Nats appear to be set in the outfield next year with Nyjer Morgan, Josh Willingham, and (fingers crossed) Elijah Dukes. Justin Maxwell is the number one fall-back option, and will get some significant PT regardless as the 4th outfielder presumably.

After trading for Nyjer Morgan, the Nats went on a torrid winning streak--which for them is slightly under .500 ball. Morgan batted .351 as a National (.307 overall for the year) after coming over from Pittsburgh, and showed good range tracking down balls in center. Relegated to rightfield in Pittsburgh, Morgan welcomed the chance to play center and bat leadoff and it showed. He stole 24 bases in roughly a third of a season with the Nats (42 overall) and is one of the more dangerous basestealers in the league.

The lefthanded hitting Morgan broke his hand while sliding into third in late August against the Cubs. From all reports he will be fine for the Spring. The Nationals are excited to see what he can do for them in a full year--at worst his enthusiasm and clubhouse demeanor will continue to serve as a welcome change from that of "5-(time) tool" Lastings Milledge.

In the Spring last year, Manny Acta proclaimed Austin Kearns a changed man with an improved swing and proclaimed him the starting RF--and relegated Josh Willingham to the bench. When Kearns proceeded to bat .195 with 3HR in 174 AB, Acta was somehow able to preserve his reputation.

Willingham meanwhile, after a slow start due possibly in part to infrequent PT, proceeded to have a good year and entrench himself in the #5 batting spot. Willingham batted .260, had an OBP of .367, and belted 24HR in only 427 AB. While in fairness some of that OBP was due to opposing pitchers preferring to face the Nats' #6 guy in the lineup to Willingham (by far), Josh had by all accounts a very successful year at the plate, and like Morgan was a big reason the Nats gained momentum after a dismal start.

Willingham played some RF while Dunn played left last year, but will move back to LF this year, his more natural position. Willingham is an adequate defender, and performed sufficiently in that regard at both positions last year, but has suspect range and a below average arm. The Nats can live with that with Morgan on Willingham's flank, however, and Willingham remains an enormous upgrade (sad as that may be) over Dunn in left defensively.

There has been some interest and rumors around the league concerning Willingham, such as:
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2907 ... ade-market

...but don't expect the Nats to trade Willingham. Number one, they need him and can easily absorb the raise he is due in arbitration this year (made 2.95 million last year, should make about 5 this year). Number two, teams will try and get a Jason Bay or Matt Holliday first, and there are secondary options they can pursue in FA without having to meet the Nats' somewhat steep price for Willingham.
Willingham will almost certainly be in Washington in 2010.

Has Elijah Dukes turned a corner? The Nats will pencil him in as the starting rightfielder next year, as opposed to crayoning him in last year. In 364 AB last year, Dukes batted .250 with 8HR and 58RBI, not even a step forward statistically from the previous year. But he did seem to mature quite a bit, as I can't remember one impregnation or threat of violence, or anything like that in 2009.

Dukes was sent down on July 1st after batting .198 in June. GM Mike Rizzo claimed he was sent down because the Nats wanted him to play every day, although some speculated it was partly because he was late to a team meeting that morning, something he had been warned about previously. Whatever the case, when he returned later in the year, it seemed Dukes was more of a guy that could possibly fit in a team environment. Dukes shortened his swing and raised his batting average from .244 to .250.

Only 25 still, the Nats will give him one more chance to claim the RF job. He doesn't even have to put up dynamite stats--if he can hit .270 with 15HR and 10SB, and stay out of trouble, the Nats will be thrilled. There is no question Dukes still has the tools to succeed.

The Nats do have a nice fallback option if Dukes falters--Justin Maxwell. Maxwell, a 4th-round pick in 2005, is actually a year older than Dukes, as Justin went to the University of Maryland before coming to the Nats. It seemed he was a long way away from making an impact most of last year, but a good September, including a grand slam in the bottom of the ninth off Francisco Rodriguez in the final home game to beat the Mets, changed that.

In 2008 at AA Harrisburg, Maxwell only batted .233. Last year at AAA Syracuse he only hit .242. He was called up twice before his September callup, but only got 24 AB and did nothing of note. But when Justin came up late, he hit .292 with 4HR in only 65 AB the rest of the way.

The right handed hitting Maxwell is an intriguing blend of speed and power that could blossom into a star. There are several warning flags with him, however, to include his low average in the minors thus far and his relatively lengthy injury history. The Nats might start him in AAA, but it is likely they will try to keep his September momentum going in Washington. Maxwell should be able to get enough AB spelling Morgan versus lefties, and Dukes in right to keep him up.

The Nats have another reasonable option in Roger Bernadina, although he appears to be the odd man out for now with the addition of Morgan. Bernadina is a left handed hitting speedster in the mode of Morgan who hit .351 in AAA in 2008 and made the opening day roster last year. He hurt himself (broken ankle) making a good catch on April 18th and still holds promise. He might stay up with Maxwell going to AAA next year but seems somewhat redundant with Morgan here.

Willie Harris can play all outfield spots and Mike Morse can man the corners, or at least right.

[Jollay]

STARTING PITCHING

The Nats' starting pitching had a 4.97 ERA, better only than Milwaukee, Baltimore, and Cleveland. The future seems bright here though, not only because of Strasburg and despite a serious injury to the promising Jordan Zimmerman. Still, the Nationals will pursue one or two starters in free agency this winter.

John Lannan is one reason for optimism--the 25 year old "ace" of the staff--and amazingly, one of its elder statesmen--will return next year after a very good season. The left-hander led the team in wins with nine, logged 206 innings of work, and posted a respectable 3.88 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. Lannan rarely overpowers hitters--he only struck out 89 batters--but he has a deceptive delivery, is extremely smart, does his homework on batters, and mixes pitches well. He'll never be an ace, but could easily be a durable second or third guy in a good rotation for years to come.

LHP Scott Olsen was supposed to be a big stabilizing factor for the Nationals after coming over from the Marlins last year, but provided little to no help. Olsen was 2-4 with a 6.03 ERA and a 1.72 WHIP in 11 starts, before undergoing surgery in June to repair a torn labrum. The Nats will monitor his progress carefully but figure to retain Olsen unless they really strike it rich in free agency or Olsen can't pitch. He's only 25 himself, and his 2008 stats with the Fish (201 IP, 1.31 WHIP), the Nats' low payroll, and his relatively low price (2-3 mil. should be his price after arby), make it seem likely the Nats will roll the dice on him.

After these two, the team has a stable of young pitchers (Ross Detwiler, JD Martin, Shairon Martis, Collin Balester, Garrett Mock, Craig Stammen) that got alot more than expected big league experience last year. It is likely some of them will go back to AAA next year, but they still all will have an opportunity to claim major league jobs next year, if not as starters, perhaps out of the pen. It really depends on where Strasburg is next year and who the Nats sign.

Detwiler, the Nats first-round pick in 2007, has perhaps the best chance of the above players to be in the mix next year. Another lefty, the Nats promoted Detwiler from AA in May, where he was a disaster (0-5, 6.40 ERA). After being sent down to AAA, Detwiler returned in September, and was impressive, posting a 1.90 ERA in five games (4 GS) and getting his first MLB win. Detwiler's curve was alot more effective upon his return, and he found his locations alot better. He was alot looser and more confident, and it showed. He'll get a crack, but the Nats will have no problem taking some more time with Detwiler in the minors.

Same with Shairon Martis, who had a great Spring and earned a spot in the rotation. Martis, only 22, did an okay job at 5-3 with a 5.25 ERA before being sent down in June. He didn't come back because the Nats wanted to limit him to 160 innings last year. He won his spot as he added about 4MPH to his fastball last year, but he still has alot of growing to do. The Nats will give him a shot to win a spot next year, but the Nats won't mind starting him at AAA. He wasn't all that great in Syracuse in last year (4-4, 4.96 ERA), and he needs more seasoning.

JD Martin almost certainly doesn't have the upside of Martis and Detwiler, but he was the most consistent starter except for Lannan--by far. Martin, 26, had a 5-4 record with a 4.44 ERA after being called up in July. Once a first round pick of the Cleveland Indians, Martin's career and velocity was derailed by Tommy John surgery. But his fastball was passable in the high 80's, and Martin has improved his chageup significantly. He would be the likely choice to start with the Nats if they want to take more time with Martis, Detwiler, and Strasburg in the minors.

Collin Balester is only 23, but he's had 22 starts in the majors already. He has not performed well by any stretch. The tall right-hander went 1-4 last year in seven starts, with a 6.82 ERA before being sent back down to AAA in late August. Like lots of young starters, Balester relies too much on his fastball, and is still trying to develop a reliable third pitch.

While Balester's control generally hasn't been terrible, and he can spot his pitches pretty well (especially his fastball), he has been ridiculously predictable, and gave up 10 homers in just 30.1 IP last year. The Nats can afford to be patient with him, and he's still very young, but Balester will likely become an odd man out in a hurry if he doesn't make strides soon.

After beginning the season in the bullpen, Garrett Mock started 15 games for the Nats last year. The former Diamondback top prospect went 3-8 as a starter with 66 strikeouts and 36 walks allowed in 78.1 IP. He posted a 6.92 ERA as a reliever, but lowered it to a cumalitive 5.62 as a starter. Like Martin, Mock is 26, and one of the older young Nats pitchers. Mike Rizzo prefers him as a starter, and he will be in the mix as such next year. Mock's main issue is his control--if he gets that under control he will have a great chance of claiming a spot in the rotation.

Craig Stammen finished with a 4-7 record and a 5.11 ERA in 19 starts in his first season in the bigs. A control guy, Stammen earned his callup in May by posting a 1.80 ERA in AAA. Although not initially considered a top prospect, Stammen offers more consistency than some of the other youngsters on the staff. His future may be as a long reliever, but he remains a viable option for the Nats in the rotation. It's a good thing the Nats' defense figures to improve behind him, though, because Stammen lacks punchout power and will put the ball in play a good deal on the mound.

Let's not forget about Stephen Strasburg. He'll make an appearance in DC next year--the only question is whether it will be Opening Day, midseason, or September. Strasburg was 4-1 in the Arizona Fall League with a 4.26 ERA, with only one really bad start that dragged his stats down. He had 23 strikeouts in 18.2 IP. As menioned earlier, it is likely he will begin the season in the minors, barring injuries to others or the Nats striking out in FA.

EDIT--Nats sign Jason Marquis (2 years/15 million)

Interesting that I characterize John Lannan as a number two or three guy in a good rotation, because that's exactly what Jason Marquis is as well. Although he was an all-star and pitched brilliantly at Coors Field last year, Marquis doesn't qualify as the ace of any staff. He is, however, a good signing for the Nats and he will likely be the Opening Day starter.

Marquis is a sinker ball pitcher that limits bombs and eats innings. If he can pitch around 200 innings and keep his ERA around 4.00, he'll be earning his money. He's no ace, but the Nats are thrilled to have him keep Strasburg's place warm in that capacity for the time being.

[Jollay]

RELIEF PITCHING

The Nationals' bullpen was an absolute disaster last year. It was headed for all-time MLB lows, before it stabilized in the second half of the season. Despite good performances by Tyler Clippard, Sean Burnett, and Mike MacDougal, the Nats' bullpen still finished with a 5.09 ERA; the worst in the majors and by far the worst in the NL (Pittsburgh 4.61).

MacDougal was jettisoned by the Chicago White Sox last year, and then was immediately signed and made into the closer by the desperate Nationals. He was wild, but up to the task, saving 20 of 21 games. In a somewhat surprising move, the Nationals did not offer a contract to MacDougal and send him to arby, which means MacDougal is a free agent.

The Nationals did acquire Brian Bruney from the Yankees, who, barring a better acquistion (EDIT: Matt Capps is probably that), seems to be the favorite to close games now. Bruney has a 4.27 career ERA, and had a solid season as a setup man in New York last year (5-0, 3.92 ERA, 36K in 39IP). He throws hard and is only 27--although he has been in the big leagues for five years already. No one disputes Bruney's stuff, but it is hard to imagine him as a long-term answer. Bruney has also had several arm problems, including a strained arm that kept him out two months last year.

Bruney keeps the closer space warm for Drew Storen, who the Nats plan on assuming closer duties within a year or two. It's about 50/50 whether Storen will begin the year in the majors, but if he does, it will probably be as a regular middle inning guy. The Nats don't want to put too much pressure on him initially if he starts with the big league club.

Lost in the hype of Strasburg, Storen has been very good in his first professional action. The tenth pick in the draft was dominant between A and AA (1.95 ERA and 49K and 37IP) and in the Arizona Fall League (0.93 ERA). He might very well start at AAA this year, but the money is that he'll begin in DC--he's just too good.

LHP Burnett and RHP Clippard will likely be the primary set up men for Bruney and perhaps Storen later. Burnett, 27, was acquired with Nyjer Morgan on July 1st from the Pirates, and he proved very reliable. He was good against lefties, posting a 2.08 ERA, and a 3.20 ERA overall as a National. A converted starter, Burnett seems like he has found his niche as a reliever where he can put a little more heat on his pedestrian fastball. He's always had a good change, but his curve got alot better last year, which helped him to put up his good stats against left-handed hitters.

Clippard was great last year, and at 24 will likely continue to improve. He only gave up 36 hits in 60.1 IP, while striking out 67 (and walking 32). Like Burnett, Clippard is another converted starter who has found more success as a reliever. Also like Burnett, Clippard gets by with an okay fastball but an excellent change and good curve. Maybe its just his crazy glasses that intimidated batters and got him a 2.69 ERA, but he threw harder as a reliever and looks like he will be a piece of the Nats' bullpen for years to come.

Jason Bergmann and the newly signed Eddie Guardado look to have inside tracks to claim spots in the bullpen after Bruney, Burnett, and Clippard. Some people were surprised Bergmann, 28, was tendered, as he was a major part of the Nats' disasterous pen to start the year, but the Nats brass was impressed with how he performed in the latter half of the season. After a dismal start to the year, Bergmann finished with a 2-3 record and a 3.38 ERA, to bring his season ERA down to 4.50. Another converted starter (started 43 games for the Nats in 2007 and 2008), the team is gambling Bergmann has found his niche.

Guardado, 39, is an intriguing option because of his experience closing games (187 career saves). His contract is non-guaranteed, but should he make the team, Guardado would provide a second lefty option and much experience. He even closed some games for the Rangers last year, and could provide a very short-term late-game solution should Bruney prove to wild or Burnett a one-year wonder. And hey, the Nats can use any sort of veteran presence possible this year.

Guardado's signing does make it more difficult to see Storen start in DC, although that remains a possibiity. But as there are no guarantees Guardado makes the team, and won't even initially be on the team's 40-man roster, the Nats have other options for a second lefty out of the pen. They claimed 29-year-old Doug Slaten from the Diamondbacks last month, who had a good year as a lefty specialist in 2007. They also acquired Venezuelan 25-year-old Victor Garate who had a 2.04 ERA at AA Chattanooga before being acquired for Ron Belliard last year. Garate is probably not an option right now, though, especially considering he was hit hard in a brief stint with the Nats last year.

26-year-old Marco Estrada is on hand as well to possibly claim the last spot in the bullpen, if anyone cares. Other guys will be in the mix as well, but I really dont think any of them are worth mentioning, except for of course local boy Josh Wilkie (GW), who tries very hard and had an ERA somewhere in the mid-threes at Syracuse. Kid ain't on the 40-man as of now, however.

EDIT--Nats sign Matt Capps to one-year deal

Kid is only 26, and he signed with the Nats despite strong interest from other teams specifically because he thought he had the best chance to be the closer immediately. He will get that chance, probably before Bruney unless he has a terrible Spring.

Capps throws hard and with very good control, but his 95 MPH heater is his only really notable pitch. He had a great '07 and '08 (2.28 and 3.02 ERAs, respectively) but was terrible last year despite saving 27 games (5.80 ERA). The Nats hope last year was an aberration, or they'll be out 3.5 million dollars. But its worth the risk.

[Jollay]

Unstickied!