A Midsummer Night's Minor League Summery

[Ed Wood]

[size=150]Ed

[Arenas4Three]

great post. I like what I read about Brad Meyers and Burgess. I am also pretty high on Dietweiler but we need to continue to develop our farm system. Seems Jim Bowden wants to wait a few more years before the Nats become serious contenders.

[jmrosenth]

Great stuff Ed.

[Ed Wood]

The New York-Penn League
Where the players are monsters and the Vermonster is still upsettingly disgusting

The Hitters

Aaron Suess

Born
03-05-85
The Numbers
40 hits and 6 walks in 117 PA, 7 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR and 55 TB for an overall line of .360/.400/.495
Translation
Suess has thus far combined a very high batting average with relatively low walk and strikeout (18 in 117 PA) numbers, a combination which is often achieved through the not particularly uncommon pairing of an above average ability to make solid contact at the plate and a complete refusal to not try to make contact every single time a pitch is thrown. A major league hitter who has much the same approach is Ivan Rodriguez, who can hit .290 and still fail to reach base in a third of his plate appearances. Suess is hitting enough doubles to avoid looking like a noodle armed slap hitter, and he's not a tiny guy (6'1 , 190 lbs) but his case for prospectum is entirely wrapped up in that batting average which, granted, is pretty high.
Reason for Optimism
He's hitting it where they ain't, and occasionally where they ain't gonna be before he reaches second.
Cause for Concern
His secondary stats are either mediocre or bad, he's old for the level, and reports indicate that he's rather particular when it comes to his breakfast, on a boat, a train, or, indeed, in a box, with a fox.

Bill Rhinehart

Born
11-22-84
The Numbers
41 hits and 14 walks in 141 PA with 12 2B, 1 HR and 56 TB for an overall line of .323/.401/.441
Translation
Rhinehart might be playing first for the Monsters, but he was an outfielder in college, and thus far his numbers hint at his previous position. He's hitting for solid average and drawing an acceptable number of walks, but he's not hitting the ball over the fence a whole lot for a guy playing a corner infield position. He has, however, been a doubles machine thus far, which is nice, but not necessarily a sign of future homerun power in a twenty three year old guy out a major college conference (Arizona in the Pac-10). He's also stolen three bases, which is three more than you'd expect from a first basemen in around a fourth of a season, though it might be worthwhile for Bill to trade some of that for more power, which he'll probably need in order to be taken seriously as a first basemen.
Reason for Optimism
He's hitting, drawing a few walks, and racking up doubles. He's a little more athletic than your standard masher at first, and he isn't striking out much (just 18 times thus far in his 141 PA).
Cause for Concern
He might be able to outrun a few of his colleagues at first base, but he might not fare so well in a home run hitting contest. He's also old for his level and went the distance in college, while some of the guys pitching to him might have been lucky to go the distance after Prom.

Quick Hits
Garrett Bass (08-28-84) must have lost a close friend to base on balls because he certainly goes out of his way not to draw any (2 in 106 PA), this lineup is not exactly striking fear into the hearts of opposing pitchers.

The Pitchers

Glenn Gibson

Born
9-21-87
The Numbers
37.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 R, 42 K, 7 BB, 1 HRA, 24 HA and a 1.45 GO/AO ratio for a 3-0 record and a 0.72 ERA.
Translation
Drafted out of high school last year, Gibson, a 6'4 lefty, was considered to be very polished for a young player. He isn't a soft tosser but doesn't overpower with his fastball, but augments it with a very good curve, something that hitters at this level might not be used to dealing with. He has given up five of his seven free passes in his last 10.2 innings pitched, but also hasn't surrendered a run and allowed only two hits in that stretch.
Reason for Optimism
He's young, he's left handed, he has a couple of solid pitches, and he's shaming the New York-Penn league with his ability to do things like mix up his pitches and throw breaking balls for strikes. He looks ready for Low A ball.
Cause for Concern
Not too many, certainly not in his results anyway. He isn't considered to be a guy with a great deal of development yet to undergo, despite his youth, and so his upside might be a mid rotation guy regardless of how well he pitches at this level and because he's so mentally jive to the art of pitching it's no surprise that he's more than holding his own against this level of competition.

Colton Willems

Born
7-30-88
The Numbers
29.1 IP, 9 ER, 17 R ( ), 12 K, 15 BB, 0 HRA, 32 HA and a 2.33 GO/AO ratio for a 2-0 record and a 2.76 ERA.
Translation
Willems, who is considered to have tremendous upside and who was drafted before Gibson last year, has an interesting line thus far. On one hand he's pitching pretty well if you go by ERA and he's keeping the ball on the ground (the GO/AO and HRA numbers) and on the other he's giving up too many hits and not racking up nearly enough strikeouts for a guy described as having electric stuff. Beyond that, those eight unearned runs are a ridiculously high number and certainly not even close to entirely the fault of his defense (which is probably pretty bad, to be fair to Colton). With those unearned runs factored into his RA (which is much more useful than ERA in measuring a pitcher's overall contribution to his team) it's closer to six.
Reason for Optimism
Willems is very young, still learning how to pitch, and very projectable (meaning people who are paid to guess at how prospects will develop think he has a lot of growth left in him) at a hard throwing 6'3 180 lbs. The ground ball and home run numbers are encouraging and his walk numbers haven't been disastrously high.
Cause for Concern
Again, the lack of strikeouts, the abundance of hits, and all of those unearned runs that make his ERA look so good. Colton's middle name is Kristofer, so he probably wins if the Nats ever have an organizational contest to determine whose name most looks like one big typo.

Adrian Alaniz

Born
03-12-84
The Numbers
31.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 R, 36 K, 4 BB, 0 HRA, 14 HA and a .88 GO/AO ratio for a 5-0 record and a 0.57 ERA.
Translation
Alaniz has thus far made a strong case for it being silly to expect to learn a great deal watching him pitch against guys who haven't really figured out how to deal with pitching savy, something his time at Texas (he's the reigning Big-12 pitcher of the year) probably had something to do with. Alaniz just needs to keep doing what he's doing and he'll soon be in a more appropriate setting.
Reason for Optimism
Alaniz is a lefty with good control and a nice breaking ball, he's doing what a good college pitcher should be doing in Short Season ball.
Cause for Concern
He's not being challanged yet, and it remains to be seen whether his mediocre stuff will allow him to keep his head above water when he is let into the deep end of the pool. He's showing fly ball tendencies already, and though he was drafted after his junior year he's twenty three years old.

Cole Kimball

Born
08-01-85
The Numbers
30.1 IP, 14 ER, 15 R, 28 K, 21 BB, 2 HRA, 23 HA and a 0.79 GO/AO ratio for a 1-2 record and a 4.11 ERA.
Translation
The delightfully alliterative Kimball started the year poorly, and struggled with his command before showing some signs of improvement in his past two outings. Overall his walks are too high, and his ERA is nothing special(particularly because Vermont seems to be a pitching-friendly place) but he's shown hints of some decent stuff.
Reason for Optimism
His strikeout numbers have been okay, the walks may be on the decline, and he's holding opposing batters to a relatively low average (.221). His home and road splits show he's actually pitched better away from Vermont Lake (2.70 ERA, 21K, 10 BB).
Cause for Concern
Those walk numbers are too high, and he's not kicking enough ass for a college pitcher in the low minors. He isn't keeping the ball on teh ground and, unlike everyone else who's giving up fly balls, hasn't kept it in the park, he's pitched poorly with runners on, but not with a huge jump in walks to suggest he can't control his delivery from the stretch.

Edulin Abreu

Born
08-08-84
The Numbers
27.0 IP, 6 ER, 12 R, 25 K, 13 BB, 3 HRA, 25 HA and a 2.50 GO/AO ratio for a 2-3 record and a 2.00 ERA at Vermont Lake and 20.1 IP, 17 ER, 21 R, 12 K, 8 BB, 0 HRA, 22 HA and a 1.67 GO/AO ratio for a 0-2 record and a 7.52 record at Hagerstown (Low A). He started the year in Low A.
Translation
Abreu has done reasonably well in Vermont, showing strong ground ball tendencies and holding batters to less than a hit an inning. The fact that he also gave up a gaggle of unearned runs, like the staff's other ground balling hurler Willems, suggests either that neither pitched as well as their ERA suggests, the Vermont defense is horrible, or (most likely) both. His peripheral numbers, appart from the strikeouts, weren't that different at Low A, he's just giving up runs at a much higher rate.
Reason for Optimism
The ground ball ratio is good, and Abreu has filled in both as a starter and a reliever (he started two games and earned saves in two others) and has a thirteen inning scoreless streak going.
Cause for Concern
He struggled with his ERA in Low A and has given up a bunch of unearned runs at both levels. Balls that are lifted off of him tend to reach the outfield bleachers a little too often and he's old for his level.

Hassan Pena
([size=75]Yes, it