Final prognosis for 2010...

[Jollay]

Optimism has somewhat dampened this year with the injury to Detwiller, the poor record in the exhibition season, the demotion of Strasburg/Storen, Adam Dunn's contract status, and the Nats' puzzling decision to cut ties with Elijah Dukes in the absence of any viable alternative (didn't help when Justin Maxwell couldn't step up in Spring).

With the exception of perhaps Maxwell's performance, none of this changes the overall long-term prognosis, however. There is still a plan in place, and what may not seem encouraging now might be next offseason.

The Nationals are almost certain to again finish last in the tough NL East, but they do seem improved. They have clearly improved their defense and their bullpen. Their starting pitching will likely slightly improve just with the acquisition of Jason Marquis. While Craig Stammen, Livan Hernandez, and Garrett Mock are very dubious 3-5 starters at best, they may be replaced with vets such as Wang and Olsen, and more promising young talent such as Zimmerman, Detwiller, and Strasburg in the second half.

Still, it seems like Washington was content to again be somewhat overly thrifty this offseason, taking the cheap route and second base (signing Kennedy over Orlando Hudson) and in rightfield (not signing Jermaine Dye or trading for anyone). It seems to me that the Nats' goal this year is to simply avoid another 95-100 loss season, adding marginal but very competent veterans to stabilize the roster. Kasten and Rizzo would rather play it somewhat safe with a team that is less likely to totally implode, but one that has a definite limited potential, as opposed to just turning over the team entirely to their young talent initially.

The Nats' rotation is on its way, but their are still major long-term questions with both the bullpen and in the field. The Nats have not locked up Dunn and Josh Willingham long-term, and do not have guaranteed starters at either's position in 2011 should the Nats elect to trade them at the deadline. It will be extremely interesting to see who the Nats get rid off this year as they inevitably fall down in the standings, and they will have to spend some money next year in the offseason if they want to seriously persuade fans they are invested in a winner.

The Nats do have the ability to entertain their fans much more than last year. Personally I am excited to watch Ian Desmond, and see the Nats running a little more this year. If Marquis and Lannan are their typical selves, and the rotation does indeed stabilize as most think over the course of the year, the Nats have enough offense in their 1-5 holes to be competitive.

And of course, Strasburg will almost certainly show up here this Summer. Thank God.

Prediction: 69-93, 5th in NL East