Why not rent Dwight Howard?

[scottcarman]

Ok here is a trade to consider:


OK, I think that the Nuggets should take a chance and rent Dwight Howard. They have too many players and they will start to lose value if they don’t get minutes. Here are the things that I am guessing based on what I know:

I think Orlando would prefer to win soon or now, so they want value players and possibly players that are already signed so they don’t end up in the same situation (hence, no interest in Bynum unless he is extended). Since they can’t get equal value for Dwight, draft picks are good filler and bad contracts can be offloaded. Rookie contracts with productive players would have high priority.

I don’t think Dwight wants to go to a team where he won’t be the number one option offensively. I think it is why he doesn’t want to go to the Lakers, because he and Kobe both want the ball to go through them as the primary option. He wouldn’t have that problem in Brooklyn because Deron is a PG and naturally would set Dwight up and Joe Johnson is clearly a tier below Dwight. He could probably handle Dallas because Nowitzki is on the downside of his career and would likely defer. I don’t think he wants to go to OKC, because he would be compared to Bosh all the time and he might be the third offensive option on that team. However OKC would probably bring him the most championships. Obviously, Dwight also wants to win now.

If the Nuggets rent Dwight then what would be his options for next season? He could leave the Nuggets and sign with a team that is far enough below the cap to absorb his contract (potentially Dallas). This would be the worst case scenario for any team that rents Dwight and it is what he is threatening to do. So He would join Dirk, but with dirk making 22M, and Dwight making 20M, and a few remaining contracts, then I don’t think they can sign another max free agent. So it would effectively be a fading Dirk, Dwight, and whatever pieces they could place around those two, certainly doesn’t seem like a team that would instantly be a favorite.


He could do a sign and trade with the a team below the cap or a team that owns his bird rights ( say to BK for Lopez, Humphries and draft picks). In which case we could probably retrieve similar draft picks and maybe get a consolation prize in Lopez. Possibly Sign and Trade with LA Lakers for Bynum. Owning his Bird rights might be very beneficial to recoup some of the losses for renting him.

Or resign with Nuggets. I think there is a punchers chance that the Nuggets could win the championship or be very close with him on the team. He may realize that the Nuggets already have the pieces in place on long term contracts and he will compete for a championship for the remainder of his career.

State of the NBA: Both Miami and OKC would be considered the favorites and are considered a Tier above the other teams. They are also both very weak in the middle in order to accommodate their stars. Could a team with a dominant front line force them to change their game? I don’t think you will beat Miami or OKC at their own game, but you might beat them with a dominant front line.

The Nuggets need to go to Dwight and say that they want to trade for him and they realize that he is likely going to sign with Dallas in the offseason. But if he is willing to focus on winning a championship in the one year that he has with the Nuggets then management can deal with that. Our goal is to convince him over the year, that the Nuggets will allow him to produce the best basketball of his career.

Without further ado:
Nuggets trade:
Arron Afflalo ($7.7M, 26 years old, 14.8 PER in 33.6 MPG last year)
Young player at peak of his career and is a clear upgrade on JRich.
Wilson Chandler ($7.4M, 25 years old, 14.7 PER in 33.3 mpg from 10-11 season, last year was a very small sample size due to injuries and china
This is a young upgrade for Turk and would likely be a cornerstone at SF. Chandler is happy to be out of Gallinari’s shadow.
Mozgov ($3.1M, 25 years old, 13.3 PER , 15.6 mpg) –
Solid backup center on expiring contract, Has shown flashes of brilliance, but I expect him to be a solid backup for years to come. Nobody replaces Dwight, but he helps solidify the position.
Brewer ($2.7M, 26 years old, 13.8 PER, 21.8 MPG)
Solid backup that changes games with his intangibles. I wish the Nuggets could keep him. Very good defender and pretty good 3pt shooter
Harrington ($6.7M, 32 years old, 15.4 PER, 27.5 MPG)
Vet that played through a broken nose, and a bum knee in the playoffs. True vet presence that will ground a young team looking to be professionals. Contract is only partially guaranteed if the Magic don’t like him. Could potentially surprise as 6th man of year if he stays healthy.
Plus 3 future first round draft picks.

Orlando trades:
Dwight
Turk
JRich

Nuggets lineup:
Lawson, Miller
JRich, JHam, Fournier (This is a little weak, but Dre will play at SG as well)
Gallo, Turk, QMiller
Faried, Randolph
Howard, McGee, Koufos

Orlando saves around $11M on this years salary and cap and more in the future because of the TPE. Leaving Orlando around $61M for next season and boosting the Nuggets to around $74M and into the luxury tax. Lawson will need an extension after this year which could push the Nuggets firmly into the tax, but if they can pull it off then they would have Lawson, Gallo, Faried, Howard, McGee, all on long term contracts and even the supporting cast of Miller, Koufos, AR, Fournier, and JHam are around for a few years. Very different from Dallas where many pieces would need to be added.

Nuggets are not as defensive on wings with the loss of AA and Brewer but a front court of Gallo, Faried, Howard, McGee, Randolph could be overwhelming for a lot of teams. Hopefully McGee is humbled by Howard and can fill his shoes if he leaves to Dallas the following year. Would this team scare OKC and Miami? Maybe earn their respect?

[The Rebel]

While the Nuggets still look solid on paper there is a couple of things you seem to be missing.

sign and trades will no longer be allowed next offseason if the receiving team is $4 million over the tax, meaning you will not have the option of signing and trading Howard to the Nets, Lakers, Knicks, or any other team.

It is no longer to the player's advantage to do a sign and trade to a team with cap space under this CBA, meaning Howard gets the same contract with either Atlanta or Dallas, and personally I think Atlanta is the bigger favorite to land Howard if he walks from somewhere as they have Josh Smith who is Howard's best friend and grew up with him plus they have the cap space for Smith and Howard, plus a player in Horford who they could trade for a very good PG.

One thing you do not seem to be considering is the teams willingness to make a deal for a player that has no interest in being in Denver. Less then 2 years after the Melo drama I do not know how willing they would be to try it, and I do not know how well the move would be received by the average fan base around Denver.

Now for your package, I do not think that deal gets it done, but even it if did that is a huge risk for the Nuggets to take. Personally I would not be offering 3 1st round picks for a guy that has no interest in being a Nuggets. I also think the Magic insist on at least one of Gallinari, Lawson, McGee, or Faried, if not 2 of the 4. If they were willing to trade Howard for 1 starter and scraps he would have already been traded.

Let's look at the packages realistically Houston reportedly has a standing offer of
Kevin Martin, Patrick Patterson, 2 of their most recent draft picks, 2 1st round picks, and cap relief.
Lakers have a reported offer of
Bynum (or whatever he brings back in trade), Ebanks, future 1st round picks,
the Nets offered
Lopez, Brooks, 4 1st round picks, and cap relief

While I think your proposed offer from the Nuggets is better then the Net's offer, I do not think it is better then either the Lakers or Rockets package, and to this point both of those offers have been turned down.

So realistically if took the following package to get a deal done, would you still be interested in doing the deal?
Galinari, Faried, hamilton or Fournier, Mozgov, 2 1st round picks, and taking back a bad contract or 2 in addition to howard.

Personally I don't think I would do that, but some may.

[scottcarman]

sign and trades will no longer be allowed next offseason if the receiving team is $4 million over the tax, meaning you will not have the option of signing and trading Howard to the Nets, Lakers, Knicks, or any other team.

I was not aware of that, but not quite as ominous as you make it sound. You need to be within 4 mil above the luxury tax which is around 75M dollars. That's pretty high and in reality only excludes a couple of teams. You are correct that the Nets and Lakers would both be out.

It is no longer to the player's advantage to do a sign and trade to a team with cap space under this CBA, meaning Howard gets the same contract with either Atlanta or Dallas, and personally I think Atlanta is the bigger favorite to land Howard if he walks from somewhere as they have Josh Smith who is Howard's best friend and grew up with him plus they have the cap space for Smith and Howard, plus a player in Horford who they could trade for a very good PG.

You never know, maybe they sign Chris Paul and then do a sign and trade with the Nuggets based on Howard for Horford. I could see the possibility of Chris Paul and Dwight going to the same place and that means that the lucky winner may need his current teams help. A team of Paul, J Smith, Howard would be very formidable. At a mimimum there is a decent chance that whoever owns Howards rights will get some compensation.

Or maybe OKC want to swap Harden for Dwight. If Dwight is rented then he can't go to BK or Lakers and so more options are open.

One thing you do not seem to be considering is the teams willingness to make a deal for a player that has no interest in being in Denver. Less then 2 years after the Melo drama I do not know how willing they would be to try it, and I do not know how well the move would be received by the average fan base around Denver.

These are totally different circumstances. Why would Dwight not want to be here? We say to him that we understand that he will ultimately go wherever he wants to, but next years options may be slim. Potentially win a title with the Nuggets supporting cast. The Nuggets will fully accept that it is for a one year thrill ride. When Dwight moves on and wins a title with another team then he could be a center that won championships with multiple teams. The management says we are all in for one year. Isn't this what the fans want, a run at the championship. I think this team would have a legit shot, especially against the soft interior of Miami and OKC.

Kevin Martin, Patrick Patterson, 2 of their most recent draft picks, 2 1st round picks, and cap relief

Many of the picks and cap relief wipe each other out.
AA and Kevin Martin is close Kevin is payed a significant portion more but also produces more, AA is younger and has improved every year. Based on having to pay AA about 5 M less, I take AA.
Patrick Patterson is nothing to write home about. I would much rather have Mozgov.
Chandler is worth more than any of the Houston recent draft pickes.
Brewer is certainly worth something.

How is this a better trade? Because of a 29 year old Kevin Martin?

Bynum (or whatever he brings back in trade), Ebanks, future 1st round picks,

Bynum wont sign with Orlando and they are in the same situation as they are with Dwight. If Bynum wants to be the center piece of Orlando then this is a done deal. But why do you think he will do anything different then every other elite free agent and join a team or player that is closer to winning now? Chandler, and AA are signed long term and will be happy and work hard to make orlando a contender. Will Bynum do that?

Lopez, Brooks, 4 1st round picks, and cap relief

Nuggets offer just as much cap relief, and close to the same picks. Do you really want Lopez at a max contract and an overpaid Humphries. Here, I'll take your bad contracts and give you back some more. Getting Lopez is the last option that Orlando actually wants, but would probably take it over nothing. I think the Nuggets contracts are 'value' contracts and though not as high profile are still just as valuable to a rebuilding team. The Nuggets cast at 25/26 years of age would have time to grow into the best phase of their career right when they are flush with draft picks.

I certainly would not trade both Galinari AND Faried, for a rental. Possibly either of them could be included in place of Chandler, but that is a stretch and not really sure I would do that if Dwight's plans were set on somewhere else. The Nuggets should do this prior to the start of the season to get a full season of Dwight.

[The Rebel]

I was not aware of that, but not quite as ominous as you make it sound. You need to be within 4 mil above the luxury tax which is around 75M dollars. That's pretty high and in reality only excludes a couple of teams. You are correct that the Nets and Lakers would both be out.

The Number they use is based on the salary amount after the trade would be complete, so unless the team holding the players right is going to take back enough salary to keep a team away from that lip, it is ominous.

You never know, maybe they sign Chris Paul and then do a sign and trade with the Nuggets based on Howard for Horford. I could see the possibility of Chris Paul and Dwight going to the same place and that means that the lucky winner may need his current teams help. A team of Paul, J Smith, Howard would be very formidable. At a mimimum there is a decent chance that whoever owns Howards rights will get some compensation.

so the question is would you trade that package for a half season of Howard (rumors have been around since surgery that he will miss until Jan), and then end up with Horford? Personally I think that is overpaying.

Or maybe OKC want to swap Harden for Dwight. If Dwight is rented then he can't go to BK or Lakers and so more options are open.

They would have to amnesty Perkins to be able to do it and then still may end up in the tax, and for the smallest market in the NBA I don't know that they would do that.

These are totally different circumstances. Why would Dwight not want to be here? We say to him that we understand that he will ultimately go wherever he wants to, but next years options may be slim. Potentially win a title with the Nuggets supporting cast. The Nuggets will fully accept that it is for a one year thrill ride. When Dwight moves on and wins a title with another team then he could be a center that won championships with multiple teams. The management says we are all in for one year. Isn't this what the fans want, a run at the championship. I think this team would have a legit shot, especially against the soft interior of Miami and OKC.

How is this not a very situation similar to Melo? Dwight wants a big market team, with another superstar, where he is still the headliner, the owner is willing to spend whatever they can, and he wants to work on his brand. If that is not true, then please tell my why the only teams he is supposed to be willing to be traded to is the Net's, Mav's, and now the Lakers, after the Lakers begged him.

Many of the picks and cap relief wipe each other out.
AA and Kevin Martin is close Kevin is payed a significant portion more but also produces more, AA is younger and has improved every year. Based on having to pay AA about 5 M less, I take AA.
Patrick Patterson is nothing to write home about. I would much rather have Mozgov.
Chandler is worth more than any of the Houston recent draft pickes.
Brewer is certainly worth something.

How is this a better trade? Because of a 29 year old Kevin Martin?

One of the picks is the Raptors 1st that the Rockets just got. Marting is also expiring, and I would put Patrick Patterson easily on the level of Mozgov.
As for Houston's picks, sure Chandler may be worth more then any of them this year, but he is not worth as much as that Raptors pick.
Our future picks on the other hand would be a late 1st for this year, and then who knows, I would rather take my chances on Jeremy Lamb and whichever other player they are offering with another future 1st or two.
As for Brewer holding value, we got Rudy Fernandez to take him less then a year ago, prior to that he was cut while still under contract, and a salary throw in. I think you are overrating his value considerably, 8th men types making $3 million a year do not hold much value.

Bynum wont sign with Orlando and they are in the same situation as they are with Dwight. If Bynum wants to be the center piece of Orlando then this is a done deal. But why do you think he will do anything different then every other elite free agent and join a team or player that is closer to winning now? Chandler, and AA are signed long term and will be happy and work hard to make orlando a contender. Will Bynum do that?

Nobody really knows what Bynum is willing to do, but I think Bynum has almost as much value as Howard does right now. So if he does not want to go to Orlando, but is willing to go to places like Cleveland, then I think they can put a very good package together for Orlando.

Nuggets offer just as much cap relief, and close to the same picks. Do you really want Lopez at a max contract and an overpaid Humphries. Here, I'll take your bad contracts and give you back some more. Getting Lopez is the last option that Orlando actually wants, but would probably take it over nothing. I think the Nuggets contracts are 'value' contracts and though not as high profile are still just as valuable to a rebuilding team. The Nuggets cast at 25/26 years of age would have time to grow into the best phase of their career right when they are flush with draft picks.

Guess you missed the part where I said the Nuggets package was better?

I certainly would not trade both Galinari AND Faried, for a rental. Possibly either of them could be included in place of Chandler, but that is a stretch and not really sure I would do that if Dwight's plans were set on somewhere else. The Nuggets should do this prior to the start of the season to get a full season of Dwight.

Nobody is getting a full season from Dwight, depending on who you listen to Howard may not even be able to play until half way through the season, but he is supposedly not even able to travel to his own kids camp this week, telling me he is far from healthy right now. And you may feel it is a stretch for you to offer that much for Howard, but why would the Magic take less then that especially prior to the season? You are offering cap relief, a solid starting SG and small forward, and a backup center, as well as cap relief. They can get that type of package in Feb at the deadline.

[scottcarman]

The Number they use is based on the salary amount after the trade would be complete, so unless the team holding the players right is going to take back enough salary to keep a team away from that lip, it is ominous.

Isn't that the whole 'trade' part of a sign and trade? Of course salary has to come back and meet the normal trade rules (125% or 150%). They new team may take on some salary so the Nuggets can save but it can't be much based on the likely 125% rule. I still think only a handful of team would be excluded, Laker, Nets, Heat, probably Knicks, but all other teams should have a play if Dwight is willing to broaden his options which he may be forced to do.

I am betting that Dwight will want to team up with another superstar, but with Dwight making 20+, and say CP making 20+, that is over 40M on two players which only leaves 18 under the cap and you already have players on contract. I think both Atlanta and Dallas would have trouble signing two max free agents without help.

They would have to amnesty Perkins to be able to do it and then still may end up in the tax, and for the smallest market in the NBA I don't know that they would do that.

That's silly and didn't realize that every detail would have to be filled in. Perkins would probably be included with Harden. But a one year run with Howard, and then Harden, Perkins is not a bad consolation. Or a consolation of Horford would be great as well.

How is this not a very situation similar to Melo? Dwight wants a big market team, with another superstar, where he is still the headliner, the owner is willing to spend whatever they can, and he wants to work on his brand. If that is not true, then please tell my why the only teams he is supposed to be willing to be traded to is the Net's, Mav's, and now the Lakers, after the Lakers begged him.

Dwight is not a building block for the Nuggets, He has not played for the Nuggets for the previous seven years. Basically, the Nuggets are admittedly a second tier team but Dwight makes them first tier. He gives the current players a more realistic chance at a championship with him then without him. Melo was a building block for the Nuggets and him leaving caused all sorts of negative uncertainty regarding equal value. Dwight is coming and not leaving. His talent causes all sorts of positive possibilities for the upcoming season. What you said is all true, but that doesn't mean that he won't try his hardest for the one year the Nuggets have him under contract. He still wants to win and prove himself.

One of the picks is the Raptors 1st that the Rockets just got. Marting is also expiring, and I would put Patrick Patterson easily on the level of Mozgov.
As for Houston's picks, sure Chandler may be worth more then any of them this year, but he is not worth as much as that Raptors pick.
Our future picks on the other hand would be a late 1st for this year, and then who knows, I would rather take my chances on Jeremy Lamb and whichever other player they are offering with another future 1st or two.
As for Brewer holding value, we got Rudy Fernandez to take him less then a year ago, prior to that he was cut while still under contract, and a salary throw in. I think you are overrating his value considerably, 8th men types making $3 million a year do not hold much value.

Martin expiring is a negative. He is the center piece of the deal and Orlando would need to know that they can resign him otherwise they still lose. It is similar to Dwight and Bynum only he is more likely to resign.

Toronto doesn't seem like a horrible team, why is that pick so valuable? I suppose we can agree to disagree on the value, but they are certainly both in the same ballpark.

In short, this offer seems to be on par with most of the other offers that are on the table.

Nobody really knows what Bynum is willing to do, but I think Bynum has almost as much value as Howard does right now. So if he does not want to go to Orlando, but is willing to go to places like Cleveland, then I think they can put a very good package together for Orlando.

So what is holding up the deal? I don't think Bynum has any intention of playing in Cleveland and that is a prereq. I would think if this were viable then it would have already been agreed to in principal. Should the Nuggets essentially do this as a three way and recieve Bynum instead? Bynum very well might sign long term here, but he is such a knucklehead.

I certainly wasn't aware that Dwight's back issues were that severe, last I heard, he was predicted to be ready to go with no long term effects.

Thanks for putting up with me. Your knowledge is appreciated.

[The Rebel]

Isn't that the whole 'trade' part of a sign and trade? Of course salary has to come back and meet the normal trade rules (125% or 150%). They new team may take on some salary so the Nuggets can save but it can't be much based on the likely 125% rule. I still think only a handful of team would be excluded, Laker, Nets, Heat, probably Knicks, but all other teams should have a play if Dwight is willing to broaden his options which he may be forced to do.

Once again it is after the trade that the lip comes in.

why would dwight have to expand his list, dallas has max cap room, Atlanta has 2 of his best friends, one of which he has been friends with since they were in diapers. there is also no financial benefit for a player to agree to a sign and trade in the new CBA.

I am betting that Dwight will want to team up with another superstar, but with Dwight making 20+, and say CP making 20+, that is over 40M on two players which only leaves 18 under the cap and you already have players on contract. I think both Atlanta and Dallas would have trouble signing two max free agents without help.

Last I checked dallas has dirk, and Atlanta is his hometown which also happens to have some of his best friends in life/aau teammates. Not to mention that Atlanta has the cap room to sign both Howard and Paul if they renounce their free agents next offseason.

That's silly and didn't realize that every detail would have to be filled in. Perkins would probably be included with Harden. But a one year run with Howard, and then Harden, Perkins is not a bad consolation. Or a consolation of Horford would be great as well.

What makes you think that Howard would have the least interest in going to OKC? Not to mention how many teams are going to want to take Perkins plus pay Harden a max deal? Not to mention that Harden has a say in the deal as he will be a free agent.

Dwight is not a building block for the Nuggets, He has not played for the Nuggets for the previous seven years. Basically, the Nuggets are admittedly a second tier team but Dwight makes them first tier. He gives the current players a more realistic chance at a championship with him then without him. Melo was a building block for the Nuggets and him leaving caused all sorts of negative uncertainty regarding equal value. Dwight is coming and not leaving. His talent causes all sorts of positive possibilities for the upcoming season. What you said is all true, but that doesn't mean that he won't try his hardest for the one year the Nuggets have him under contract. He still wants to win and prove himself.

He may try his hardest for 1/2 of a year, or he may just sit out most of the year. He is injured and will not be back. I can see why you would want to give up the package you proposed for Howard, hell that would be fine, but you cannot realistically expect that to get it done, they have already turned down better offers.

Martin expiring is a negative. He is the center piece of the deal and Orlando would need to know that they can resign him otherwise they still lose. It is similar to Dwight and Bynum only he is more likely to resign.

Toronto doesn't seem like a horrible team, why is that pick so valuable? I suppose we can agree to disagree on the value, but they are certainly both in the same ballpark.

In short, this offer seems to be on par with most of the other offers that are on the table.

Martin expiring is not a negative, no team in their right mind is going to build their team around a SG that is not a superstar. Martin is paid very highly, and in a year if they like him they can bring him back for less money. but in no way is Martin the centerpiece, he is the filler, the rookies and the picks are the centerpiece. As for the Raptors pick, they were not a terrible team on paper last year, yet they still ended up with the 8th overall pick, the pick from the Raptors is almost guaranteed to be a lotto pick, and is from a 3rd party team. A pick from a team getting Howard is certainly going to be late 1st round pick. There is a ton of difference between the 8th overall pick and a pick somewhere around the mid 20s, I don't see how that is even arguable.

So what is holding up the deal? I don't think Bynum has any intention of playing in Cleveland and that is a prereq. I would think if this were viable then it would have already been agreed to in principal. Should the Nuggets essentially do this as a three way and recieve Bynum instead? Bynum very well might sign long term here, but he is such a knucklehead.

I certainly wasn't aware that Dwight's back issues were that severe, last I heard, he was predicted to be ready to go with no long term effects.

Thanks for putting up with me. Your knowledge is appreciated.

Bynum refuses to sign and extension with anybody right now, for that matter so does Howard, in the new CBA it is not beneficial for players to sign extensions they make somewhere around $25 million more over the life of a deal if they sign a new contract under bird rights then they would if they sign an extension. Also the Magic want more then what the combined deal with the Cavs was supposed to be. The Magic want a haul similar to what the Nuggets got, and I don't see the Cavs doing that.

Personally Bynum is a knucklehead, but Howard is just as bad, and Howard wants a big market and another superstar, both things that the Nuggets cannot offer right now.

Howard's back issues have been reported as him being ready for training camp, and other reports are that he is out until January, fact is nobody really knows, but given his history it would not surprise me if he nurses the injury until the all star game if he gets traded somewhere he does not want to go, with a back injury it is hard to prove health.