Minute distribution predictions

[scottcarman]

I am adding up to 52 mpg, because there are injuries and every player does not play every game, but I'm limiting it to 4 mpg for a total of 52 mpg at each position


PG: Lawson (35), NRob (15), Dre (2) - Dre likely traded, so minutes go to any 3rd string PG, NRob not happy with 15 mpg
SG: Foye(25), Fournier (20), Hamilton (7) - Hamilton still gets little playing time, but get a few SF minutes when Gallo is hurt. Will Foye or Fournier be able to capture the other players minutes?
SF: Gallinari(30), Chandler (20), QMiller (2) - Chandler deserves more minutes than this so takes some of Arthurs PF minutes.
PF: Faried (30), Chandler(10) Arthur(10), Randolph (2) - Randolph is just insurance.
C: McGee (25), Hickson (20), Mozgov (7) - I see Mozgov as the odd man out.

In descending order:
Lawson (35)
Chandler (30)
Gallinari (30)
Faried (30)
McGee (25)
Foye (25)
Hickson (20)
Fournier (20)
Arthur (10)
Mozgov (7)
Hamilton (7)
Randolph (2)
QMiller (2)
3rd PG (2)

[corona]

Don't disagree too much.

I think faried may not see an increase, to keep his energy up and get the most from his best asset. Which means hickson could see a couple more minutes at PF, or substitute those minutes so moz gets more.

Also wouldn't surprise me to see nate rob and Lawson play 6 minutes together every 3rd game or so depending on matchups and if shaw thinks it'll work. That would bring him up to 17 or 18, not far off his career average. Take a few off foye or jham, depending on how they're doing.

[ujirifan]

I certainly hope that you're right on Ty. I just don't see how - assuming good health - that he gets that many with Nate on team. I see Nate as a 18-20 MPG guy while hoping to hell he DOES NOT get any meaningful PT alongside Ty.

The other big question is, does 25 MPG for JaVale mean that you think that is the max quality PT he is capable of providing due to his asthma or is it hedging on his ability to be a true starting center?

One other point. It has been regurgitated ad nauseam by both local and national sources that one "mortal sin" of Karl's was that he didn't give the "younger" players enough PT. I have always considered this hyperbolic, if not total B.S.

BUT, given that criticism, the 4 youngest players back from last year's team are Q Miller, Fournier, Randolph and Hamilton, of whom you only allot Fournier increased minutes with the other 3 all but glued to the bench barring a bunch of injuries.

So my question to you is, do you think that charge against Karl was totally bogus and/or do you think that it had some merit and at least Hamilton and Randolph should be given every opportunity to show that they can legitimately beat out Foye, Arthur and, yes, even Hickson for PT?

[corona]

randolph's had opportunities with 4 different teams (3 of which were terrible and he could have easily earned minutes on)....and couldn't get it done. i'd say without some amazing performances in practice and significant improvement, he's cemented his status in the league as an insurance PF.

hamilton will have every opportunity to beat out foye. i hope he does prove to be a better individual defender and fit at the SG position because we need it.

these are just very preliminary predictions on what we've seen these players prove they can do, and/or reasonable expectations for next season.

[ujirifan]

All I can say about Randolph is that if Shaw comes close, as a head coach, to matching his rep as an assistant in developing players, Randolph certainly has more talent and ability than Arthur and, probably Hickson as well, who BTW, is also on his 4th team already. He is definitely the best shot blocker of the 3, with 2 inches in height and a greater wingspan.

I think that he should be given the same consideration as Hamilton to show he belongs in the rotation but I'm not hopeful that will happen. With Hickson at 3 years/16 million, I don't think the playing field will be level for Randolph.

Which bring up the question, do you believe Shaw will have unfettered control of his personnel, i.e. who plays when and how much? I wouldn't bet on it, particularly if things are not going well.

Hamilton came into the league with another 6.7" SF who was drafted by my other favorite team. Early on, I thought that he was at least as likely to make an impact soon. Now, however, Jimmy Butler has become a starter at SG by significantly improving his J to go along with his top notch D. Hamilton needs to do just the opposite, improve his D while toning down his J R Smith shoot first attitude.

Again, if Shaw can work some magic with Hamilton, the Nugz will likely have a much improved SG situation as well as more wing flexibility going forward.

[DaFan334]

While Randolph definitely does have more talent than Arthur and Hickson, he has been given just as much playing time as those two but just has not shown anywhere near the consistency of solid play. Unless that changes, I see him being relegated to the bench. Shaw might however be the right coach to bring out his potential as he has with other player, but I wouldn't bet on it.

As for Hamilton, he was the only young player that I have seen George Karl admit to deserving more time than he got. This makes me feel like Hamilton may be in line for more PT than people realize. The kid can definitely shoot and brings some solid athleticism to the lineup. He really hasn't had much of a great chance to get consistent playing time thus far in his career. He may find more success as mainly a spot up shooter. I would like to see him force Shaw to have Foye mainly benched.

When Gallo returns, the team may have trouble finding enough minutes for Chandler unless the two can cover the wings for significant minutes together if the shooting guards don't prove to worthy of as much time as they could. (not necessarily saying Chandler plays the 2)

Has anyone really considered Darrell Arthur getting some time as the backup 3 while Gallo is out? While not being a 3 point threat, he can hit the mid-range J, is very athletic, and can defend multiple positions. He and Melvin Hunt hinted to this possibility in this article:
http://fansided.com/2013/08/09/darrell- ... is-season/
While it may not be ideal, it would make the defense on the floor tough and could work offensively with some of the 3 point shooting in the back court.

As for Nate Robinson, I would hope that he knew what he was getting into when he signed here (especially for that low of a contract with no one else giving him higher bid). That said, he and Ty could work together on limited basis because of how hard they would be to cover on offense. It might hurt a little going the other way, but I'm not sure many teams can actually match up with the two speedsters that can shoot from distance.

[ujirifan]

I don't really agree with you about Randolph's career so far versus Hickson.

Two things. First, I think that Karl and the coaching staff had a positive effect on him last year and that he might well have been given more opportunity to get minutes as the backup PF and even center against certain opponents second tier players, given the type of offense they would have run this year.

Secondly, the numbers for Hickson, particularly minus last year, are not that much better than Randolph's. Hickson, with the Cavs, Kings and, particularly last year with Portland, was in the right place at the right time for PT chances much more than Randolph with G.S., Minn. and particularly the Knicks and even more so the Nugz last year.

He has played only 209 games and 3300 minutes, averaging 15.9 MPG and 7.6/4.6 on .462 shooting. Hickson has played 357 games, 8200 minutes, averaging 23.0 MPG and 9.8/6/8 on .509 shooting. Virtually all of the difference between them stems from last year when Hickson had no competition at all at PF and center behind LA and put up impressive stats while playing the bulk of his PT alongside of LA which, however, did not result in any meaningful results for a lottery team. Meanwhile Randolph rightfully did not get much PT on a team that had a whole more talent and versatility and played SFs Chandler and Gallo at PF in different lineups behind Faried.

I would expect that Hamilton will get whatever minutes at SF while Gallo is out. When he returns, Hamilton will have to have shown enough to get some PT at SG. IF Arthur were to get PT at SF while Gallo is out, it would show that Shaw, just like Karl, cannot convince himself that Hamilton is worth playing.

There are some fans who think that Gallo is clearly a better player than Chandler. I like Gallo but I am not one of them. This is Chandler's big chance to both play really well consistently and to stay healthy. If he has done so for two months or however long it takes Gallo to get back, they almost have to look at trading of one of them - probably Chandler - before the deadline. Gallo has to play - if they keep him - BUT if Chandler is averaging 16/7 on 46% shooting and 40% from 3s and playing solid D, HTF can you bench him for essentially HAVING BEEN Gallo for that time? If he was a young guy like Fournier, you could do that, but not as a player who is as much a young veteran as Gallo is.

As for Nate, also being a Bulls fan, I watched him a lot last year and, believe me, neither he nor Ty can be as effective playing with each other as playing with a more traditional SG. One problem that is identical with having played Ty and Miller together is that they really both need the ball in their hands to be at their most effective.

The BIG difference between those two pairings is that MOST of the time Dre is looking to pass first while, Most of the time, Nate is looking to shoot first - even though he is an effective passing PG.

On D, Nate can, at times, make up for his lack of height with his speed, quickness and hops while Dre can sometimes make up for his lack of those abilities with his top notch smarts/knowledge of opponents and what they do and his strength.

So I guess you could make a case that the Ty/Nate combo playing significantly less PT together than last year's Ty/Dre combo actually might improve the backcourt D while testing the chemistry between the two small PGs offensively.

[corona]

Secondly, the numbers for Hickson, particularly minus last year, are not that much better than Randolph's. Hickson, with the Cavs, Kings and, particularly last year with Portland, was in the right place at the right time for PT chances much more than Randolph with G.S., Minn. and particularly the Knicks and even more so the Nugz last year.

He has played only 209 games and 3300 minutes, averaging 15.9 MPG and 7.6/4.6 on .462 shooting. Hickson has played 357 games, 8200 minutes, averaging 23.0 MPG and 9.8/6/8 on .509 shooting. Virtually all of the difference between them stems from last year when Hickson had no competition at all at PF and center behind LA and put up impressive stats while playing the bulk of his PT alongside of LA which, however, did not result in any meaningful results for a lottery team. Meanwhile Randolph rightfully did not get much PT on a team that had a whole more talent and versatility and played SFs Chandler and Gallo at PF in different lineups behind Faried.

randolph was just on a 26-40 minnesota team with kevin love to take the pressure off him.
and a 17-65 minnesota team (thats worse than the cavs, post lebron)....fighting for minutes with michael beasley (soon to be out of the league) and darko milicic.
with golden state...he was competing for minutes with mikki moore, ronny turiaf and an old vladimir radmanovic for frontcourt minutes, and couldn't set himself apart. not to mention that team went 26-56, and 29-53 the season before. worse than the blazers the past 2 years.

so you can't say he just hasn't had the chance.

i think a 5% difference in fg percentage is significant. and i think randolph has had the same opportunities to prove himself against his (mediocre) teammates in practice and in not-so-meaningful game situations, and hasn't been able to....to the level that hickson has. that doesn't mean it won't happen, but i'm not counting on it.

agreed with the rest of your post.

[Ice32]

This team is deeper than last year, and minutes will have to be earned from the start of training camp. Im not even sure that the 2, 3 and 4 spot is set in stone, theres a few players that can play multiple positions that will battle to start the game, with Gallo out, I see minutes being:

Ty - 33-37, Dre - 11-15
Foye - 24-28, Nate - 20-24
Chandler - 30-34, Evan/JHam - 14-18
Faried - 28-32, Hickson - 6-10, Arthur - 8-12
McGee - 22-26, Hickson - 14-18, Mozzy - 6-10

Evan and JHam will have to fight for any free minutes at the 2 and 3 spot. Once Gallo is back, I cannot see how JHam/Evan get any PT. Randolph is insurance for the bigs. I could honestly see Faried fighting for the starting 4 spot and Hickson getting the nod. Arthur could really surprise and get more PT than Mozzy. I think Dre gets traded by deadline to free up time for Evan. JHam will have to have an awesome TC and Pre-Season to get quality mins this season. He needs to focus on playing defense first and then the shots will follow.

Chandler healthy means Gallo could be traded, they are the same player almost, but Chandler is tougher on D and the boards.

[ujirifan]

think a 5% difference in fg percentage is significant. and i think randolph has had the same opportunities to prove himself against his (mediocre) teammates in practice and in not-so-meaningful game situations, and hasn't been able to....to the level that hickson has. that doesn't mean it won't happen, but i'm not counting on it.

I won't argue with the rest of what you said about Randolph but the 4.1% difference between Randolph and Hickson prior to last year is not really such a big deal since Randolph has only gotten 1204 total shots in 5 years and, for whatever reason, has not really been given the opportunity to play meaningful time.

The belief that the coaches he has played for prior to Karl knew what they were doing is nearly as contestable as my belief that Karl could well have given him more PT on a team that would have had the same personnel as last year. And, let's not forget that McGee came into the league the same year as Hickson and Randolph and actually had a real shot at being a starter in 2010, playing 27.8 MPG as a starter in 75 of 79 games and putting up 10.1/8.0/2.4 on .550 shooting but was sent packing at the tender age of 23 for Nene who in 9+years in Denver had completely proven to be as mediocre a scorer and rebounder as McGee was to that point as well as a vastly inferior shot blocker AND who had missed 211 games in the first 9 years. And, yet, most "experts" as well as the majority of Nuggets fans thought it was a bad deal.

But, now, here is McGee being handed the starter's job with no competition intended.

[ujirifan]

This team is deeper than last year, and minutes will have to be earned from the start of training camp. Im not even sure that the 2, 3 and 4 spot is set in stone, theres a few players that can play multiple positions that will battle to start the game, with Gallo out, I see minutes being:

Wrong. Exchanging Iggy, Brewer, Koufos and Stone for Arthur, Hickson, Foye and Nate does not make the team deeper, EXCEPT for the fact that, right now they are overstocked at PG. They are shorter, with less length and less defensive capability.

Ty - 33-37, Dre - 11-15
Foye - 24-28, Nate - 20-24
Chandler - 30-34, Evan/JHam - 14-18
Faried - 28-32, Hickson - 6-10, Arthur - 8-12
McGee - 22-26, Hickson - 14-18, Mozzy - 6-10

You are giving the 3 PGs a combined 64-76 MPG which is incredibly unrealistic. Aside from the fact that I do not expect Miller to be on the team at the start of the season, the idea that two of the three PGs would be on the court together for half of the game is preposterous, unless you believe that Shaw was a total liar in saying that improving the defense was one of his two top priorities.

Evan and JHam will have to fight for any free minutes at the 2 and 3 spot. Once Gallo is back, I cannot see how JHam/Evan get any PT. Randolph is insurance for the bigs. I could honestly see Faried fighting for the starting 4 spot and Hickson getting the nod. Arthur could really surprise and get more PT than Mozzy. I think Dre gets traded by deadline to free up time for Evan. JHam will have to have an awesome TC and Pre-Season to get quality mins this season. He needs to focus on playing defense first and then the shots will follow.

Given the alleged unhappiness of Kid Kroenke with Karl's not playing the younger guys enough, why do you think that Fournier and Hamilton are going to be glued to the bench barring injuries or trades?

I do agree that Hamilton will have to show his willingness to defend a lot more than he has so far.