RealGM Nuggets Offseason Preview

[Smitty731]

Hey all,

Nuggets offseason preview is up for RealGM:

http://basketball.realgm.com/analysis/246079/2017-NBA-Offseason-Preview-Denver-Nuggets

Curious to see what you all think.

Thanks!

Smitty

[NuggetsWY]

Hey all,

Nuggets offseason preview is up for RealGM:

http://basketball.realgm.com/analysis/246079/2017-NBA-Offseason-Preview-Denver-Nuggets

Curious to see what you all think.

Thanks!

Smitty

Best I've seen so far; spot on regarding almost everything. I think you've got a good understanding of what our front office is doing/planning to do (some of which I don't like).

You listed signing Gallinari as important and they probably will sign him even though it will cost a lot of dollars over 4-5 years (I wish they wouldn't).

You also indicated they would probably keep Chandler & Barton; I agree they probably will but even though I've always liked them, I wish they'd trade Barton at least. His playing style just doesn't fit well with a Jokic-centric offense plus he clogs the minutes for Murray & Beasley behind Harris.

Your analysis of Nelson was better than most. Too many give Nelson credit for the Nuggets' season but it was really when they started giving Jokic the ball that things turned around. Nelson likes to pound the ball at the end of the quarter and then launch his own shot which is far too often an airball or a clanker. His style of ball does not fit with a Jokic-centered offense at all - worst on the team IMO.

The only actual disagreement I have with you is regarding our future at PG. Because of how they used him (combo-guard as you said, and mostly SG), nobody considers Murray as our future PG enough IMO. With a Jokic-centric offense, a PG with Murray's skills is perfect and I believe he should be the 2017-2018 starting PG with Mudiay as his backup (last chance season maybe). Nelson could be the third PG or traded for another veteran PG as a Mudiay-alternate.

Overall - an outstanding write-up!

[Smitty731]

Hey all,

Nuggets offseason preview is up for RealGM:

http://basketball.realgm.com/analysis/246079/2017-NBA-Offseason-Preview-Denver-Nuggets

Curious to see what you all think.

Thanks!

Smitty

Best I've seen so far; spot on regarding almost everything. I think you've got a good understanding of what our front office is doing/planning to do (some of which I don't like).

You listed signing Gallinari as important and they probably will sign him even though it will cost a lot of dollars over 4-5 years (I wish they wouldn't).

You also indicated they would probably keep Chandler & Barton; I agree they probably will but even though I've always liked them, I wish they'd trade Barton at least. His playing style just doesn't fit well with a Jokic-centric offense plus he clogs the minutes for Murray & Beasley behind Harris.

Your analysis of Nelson was better than most. Too many give Nelson credit for the Nuggets' season but it was really when they started giving Jokic the ball that things turned around. Nelson likes to pound the ball at the end of the quarter and then launch his own shot which is far too often an airball or a clanker. His style of ball does not fit with a Jokic-centered offense at all - worst on the team IMO.

The only actual disagreement I have with you is regarding our future at PG. Because of how they used him (combo-guard as you said, and mostly SG), nobody considers Murray as our future PG enough IMO. With a Jokic-centric offense, a PG with Murray's skills is perfect and I believe he should be the 2017-2018 starting PG with Mudiay as his backup (last chance season maybe). Nelson could be the third PG or traded for another veteran PG as a Mudiay-alternate.

Overall - an outstanding write-up!

Thanks for the kind words! Much appreciated.

I may be selling Murray a little short with his ability to play PG while Jokic facilitates. I do wonder if he can guard opposing PGs night in and night out, that is more of a question for me than his offense.

I think Nelson should be a 10-15 MPG backup this coming year and then a 3rd/emergency guy after that. Which is fine for where he is in his career and his contract, so any sort of upgrade there would be good.

I'm so split on Gallinari. I could see them overpaying him some to stay and I can also see him moving on to a team that is a little closer to contention. And I'm not really sure which is the better choice!

And I do think either Chandler or Barton is gone by the deadline at the latest. Kind of a "get something for them while you can" type of deal.

[NuggetsWY]

Hey all,

Nuggets offseason preview is up for RealGM:

http://basketball.realgm.com/analysis/246079/2017-NBA-Offseason-Preview-Denver-Nuggets

Curious to see what you all think.

Thanks!

Smitty

Best I've seen so far; spot on regarding almost everything. I think you've got a good understanding of what our front office is doing/planning to do (some of which I don't like).

You listed signing Gallinari as important and they probably will sign him even though it will cost a lot of dollars over 4-5 years (I wish they wouldn't).

You also indicated they would probably keep Chandler & Barton; I agree they probably will but even though I've always liked them, I wish they'd trade Barton at least. His playing style just doesn't fit well with a Jokic-centric offense plus he clogs the minutes for Murray & Beasley behind Harris.

Your analysis of Nelson was better than most. Too many give Nelson credit for the Nuggets' season but it was really when they started giving Jokic the ball that things turned around. Nelson likes to pound the ball at the end of the quarter and then launch his own shot which is far too often an airball or a clanker. His style of ball does not fit with a Jokic-centered offense at all - worst on the team IMO.

The only actual disagreement I have with you is regarding our future at PG. Because of how they used him (combo-guard as you said, and mostly SG), nobody considers Murray as our future PG enough IMO. With a Jokic-centric offense, a PG with Murray's skills is perfect and I believe he should be the 2017-2018 starting PG with Mudiay as his backup (last chance season maybe). Nelson could be the third PG or traded for another veteran PG as a Mudiay-alternate.

Overall - an outstanding write-up!

Thanks for the kind words! Much appreciated.

I may be selling Murray a little short with his ability to play PG while Jokic facilitates. I do wonder if he can guard opposing PGs night in and night out, that is more of a question for me than his offense.

Totally understand this, but we all know that very few "defensive oriented" college players can play NBA defense right off. He made too many mistakes this year, but he also made a lot of effort and I excuse his mistakes on defense because, frankly, the Nuggets' defense was pathetic and I could discern no pattern except having guards trail over the top of all picks, usually leaving the Nuggets' bigs to face a 2-for-1 and the Nuggets' guard's man scoring - making our guards look bad. There was seldom any help from the wings on those plays. That was the biggest flaw IMO, but there were other examples of poor team defense, too little help, players getting lost, etc. I think Murray can learn to be a good defender. He has some length, a good bit of quickness and is willing to work and move.

I think Nelson should be a 10-15 MPG backup this coming year and then a 3rd/emergency guy after that. Which is fine for where he is in his career and his contract, so any sort of upgrade there would be good.

SIgh, I'd accept that, but I'd rather see him get zero minutes with Jokic. If he's as good as some think, then he can show it with the bench players (against other teams' bench players).

I'm so split on Gallinari. I could see them overpaying him some to stay and I can also see him moving on to a team that is a little closer to contention. And I'm not really sure which is the better choice!

Yeah, in many ways, I would love to see him still here. He's been our stud for a few years. However, it seems unlikely Chandler gets traded, nor Arthur or Faried. That gives us four veteran forwards that Malone loves to play. If we keep Barton too, he'll play some forward. That leaves few minutes for Hernangomez and any rookie forwards.

And I do think either Chandler or Barton is gone by the deadline at the latest. Kind of a "get something for them while you can" type of deal.

The Nuggets waited too long on Gallinari and I'm betting they'll wait too long on Barton. He's a fair defender, a better offensive player with a lot of versatility. SO I bet they keep him and play him.

I suspect our team will look very similar to last year's team. The biggest change I can see is Murray getting more PG time.
Nelson-Murray-Mudiay
Harris-Barton-Murray-Beasley (crazy)
Gallinari-Chandler-"Rookie?"-Miller
Chandler-Faried-Hernangomez-Arthur (crazy)
Jokic-Plumlee

Not much improvement; other teams improve - record is worse. I sure hope my projections are wrong.

[Powder Blue]

Good write up but I hope Gallo is a goner. Change up the vets, get some toughness.


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[The Rebel]

Hey all,

Nuggets offseason preview is up for RealGM:

http://basketball.realgm.com/analysis/246079/2017-NBA-Offseason-Preview-Denver-Nuggets

Curious to see what you all think.

Thanks!

Smitty

One thing that you missed is that Murray played the entire season with a sports hernia, and there is no way that anybody who watched him would put his ceiling at above average starter. He has obvious all star potential when you watch him.

Also I disagree with you that the Nuggets bring back Plumlee, Gallo, Chandler, and Barton. I don't see anyway that happens, Chandler has openly complained about his role, Barton is a year from expiring and is not a good fit on their roster, Gallo is due a big raise, and Plumlee will likely be way overpriced for a backup center. I think at least 2 of the 4 are gone this summer for better ling term fits, and with the pressure on the front office to make the playoffs I can see all 4 plus Nelson and one of Faried or Arthur gone as well.

[Smitty731]

Hey all,

Nuggets offseason preview is up for RealGM:

http://basketball.realgm.com/analysis/246079/2017-NBA-Offseason-Preview-Denver-Nuggets

Curious to see what you all think.

Thanks!

Smitty

One thing that you missed is that Murray played the entire season with a sports hernia, and there is no way that anybody who watched him would put his ceiling at above average starter. He has obvious all star potential when you watch him.

Also I disagree with you that the Nuggets bring back Plumlee, Gallo, Chandler, and Barton. I don't see anyway that happens, Chandler has openly complained about his role, Barton is a year from expiring and is not a good fit on their roster, Gallo is due a big raise, and Plumlee will likely be way overpriced for a backup center. I think at least 2 of the 4 are gone this summer for better ling term fits, and with the pressure on the front office to make the playoffs I can see all 4 plus Nelson and one of Faried or Arthur gone as well.

On the second part, I didn't say they would bring back all of them. I agree that at least one and probably two are gone this offseason.