Nuggets Over/Under 52.5

[NuggetsWY]

https://www.scout.com/basketball/nba/news/190821339-nba-outlook-bet-on-the-denver-nuggets-to-win-less-than-52-5-games-projected-to-finish-ahead-of-jazz/

Their odds to win it all are 16/1, 5.9% (#8). They are not a good bet to win the championship. Their 4.3% chance is #9 in the league. In simulations, they win the West 8.5% of the time and are not a good value at 10/1, 9.1%. The Nuggets are averaging 49.5 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 52.5 wins. At -1400 the Nuggets are a good value to make the playoffs with a 96.9% chance. Their odds of winning their division are 3/2, 40%. They win the division in 46.3% of simulations. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #5 in the West.

[The Rebel]

i don't know what they base their simulations on, but I would guess like many other national "experts" and video game designers that they know very little about the Nuggets outside of a couple of names. While some teams in the west have gotten better many of these so called experts cannot seem to project growth from the Nuggets young players while projecting huge growth from young players on other teams.

[Coeur]

This is an easy over. The Nugs are going to be a great regular season team and this number is set too low based off the non chances of winning the title.


This is going to be a top 3 seed. Prob the number 1 seed

[NuggetsWY]

They are saying the Nuggets will do worse this year compared to last because other West teams have made "splashy" moves. They don't consider Denver will improve just based on their young players having learned. Then we add in Grant and Vanderbilt (who barely played last year) and Porter --- they don't value them for some reason. So as The Rebel said, they don't know anything about the Nuggets and were probably busy watching ESPN's Paint Drying channel last year.

As Coeur said, "Easy Over".

[THE J0KER]

Western Conference becoming this good (more competitive and stronger) would probably down last season Nuggets 54-win record to about 50, but the team is now clearly better, deeper, and more experienced, so I think 55-57 wins is a most realistic projection (TOP2 WC seed once again) if key pieces (Jokic-Murray duo) stay healthy.

[skywalker33]

Really think this oddsmaker has done his job, feels like he's made it ambiguous enough given the Wild West changes.

[U hova]

I'd be betting with other people's money, but I'd take the under.

I think there's a lot of hype for the team outside of our base, but I'm not sure if a healthier season or MPJ as a rookie gets us there.
I think we were a little lucky in that we lost our guards but had talent like Morris, Beasley to pack right in to keep the engine moving - if we had won 54 wins without Jokic and were getting him back next year it'd be a much different story for me.
Also, if god forbid our 3pt% defense regresses to an average, that alone pulls us down to a sober 45~47 win team.

But who knows, maybe we'll be winning those games that we tanked when IT was playing minutes.

[TunaFish]

Bol Bol's fantasy ranking is higher than Barton, Grant and Morris in this projection. That makes no sense to me and I like him to play some time this year.