RealGM

March 17, 2011, 6:00 pm
Keeping Score: Why the Nuggets Are Winning
By JUSTIN KUBATKO

Justin Kubatko is the creator of Basketball-Reference.com, an online basketball encyclopedia. He is also a statistical consultant for the Portland Trail Blazers.

With Wednesday night’s impressive road victory over the Atlanta Hawks, the Denver Nuggets improved to 9-2 since the trade that sent Carmelo Anthony to the Knicks.

And although most analysts felt the Nuggets received a favorable return in the deal, few expected them to play this well without their star.

A closer look at the team’s numbers with Anthony and without him reveals some significant changes on both ends of the floor.

Perhaps the two biggest criticisms of Anthony while he was in Denver were his propensity to dominate the ball on the offensive end and his effort (or lack thereof) on the defensive end.

Usage percentage is an estimate of the percentage of plays that a player used while he was on the floor, where a play is defined to be a combination of field goal attempts, free throw attempts and turnovers. If a team distributed its plays equally among all of its players, then each individual would have a usage percentage of 20 percent.

Anthony’s usage percentage in Denver was 32.6 percent, the second-highest rate in the N.B.A. That, coupled with the fact that Anthony averaged 35.5 minutes a game, meant that the Nuggets’ offense was predominantly run through a single player.

Before the Anthony trade, Denver’s top 10 players in minutes played had usage percentages that ranged from 14.0 percent for Kenyon Martin to Anthony’s 32.6 percent.

Since the deal, though, the play distribution has been much less skewed: the usage percentages of the 10 players in Denver’s regular rotation range from 17.1 percent for Chris Andersen to 25.2 percent for J. R. Smith.

This change in offensive philosophy can also be seen when looking at Denver’s percentage of assisted field goals. With Anthony, the Nuggets recorded assists on 56.0 percent of their field goals, the 12th-lowest rate in the league. But since the deal, Denver’s assisted field goal percentage of 64.0 percent is the third highest in the N.B.A.

And while a more equitable play distribution and a high rate of assisted field goals are not necessarily good indicators of an effective offense, this combination has worked for the Nuggets; Denver averaged 1.13 points per possession with Anthony in the fold, but it has averaged 1.14 points per possession without him.

While the offense has managed to remain among the most efficient in the league, it is on defense that the Nuggets have made the biggest strides.

Before the Anthony deal, the Nuggets were not a good defensive team. Denver allowed its opponents to score 1.10 points per possession, a figure that placed it in the bottom third of all teams.

But in their past 11 games, the Nuggets have allowed 1.00 point per possession, the second-lowest rate in the N.B.A. in that stretch.

In particular, Denver’s shot defense has significantly improved. The Nuggets’ effective field-goal percentage against, an adjusted shooting percentage that takes into account the extra point provided by the 3-point shot, was 50.8 percent before the trade (21st in the N.B.A.) but 48.1 percent after (sixth in the N.B.A.).

Of course, one thing to keep in mind is that the post-trade numbers are based on 11 games, a relatively small sample. But this does not appear to simply be the result of a favorable schedule, as Denver has played a tougher schedule without Anthony than with him.

Although the buildup to the Anthony trade was emotionally draining for the Denver franchise and its fans, things appear to have taken a turn for the better. The Nuggets’ fans should be cautiously optimistic about their team’s future.

This change in offensive philosophy can also be seen when looking at Denver’s percentage of assisted field goals. With Anthony, the Nuggets recorded assists on 56.0 percent of their field goals, the 12th-lowest rate in the league. But since the deal, Denver’s assisted field goal percentage of 64.0 percent is the third highest in the N.B.A.

2. With MElo we only held opponents to under 25 points per quarter 39.29% of the time.

Without MElo we hold opponents to under 25 per quarter 62.50% of the time. (That's a difference of 23.21%)

I think that this stat revealed just how bad the defense was on that old Nuggets team. This shows that we are playing defense consistently through out the game. It's hard to put defense into numbers because the definition of good defense is subjective, but I think quarters under 25 PA is a good measure of D.

3. With MElo we gave up 25 or more in the second quarter 71.43% of the time (this was our worst quarter out of the 4)

Without MElo we give up 25 or more in the second quarter only 28.57% of the time. That's a 42.86% difference!!!!

Without MElo we score more than 25 in the second quarter 71.43% which is a 5.36% increase than with MElo.

This just highlights how bad we used to be at holding a lead, or playing a full half of basketball. I'm not sure how much of this stat we can blame on MElo as he usually sat out most of the second quarter, but in any case, we have been able to take leads into the half now, as opposed to blowing any sort of lead we had after the first quarter. Our team has been developing that killer instinct which is necessary in the playoffs. This is another consistency indicator.

4. With MElo we won the second and third quarter in terms of points scored 41.07% and 46.43% of the time respectively.

Without MElo we win the second and third quarters in terms of points scored 64.29% and 85.71% of the time respectively.

Once again, this just shows that we have been stepping on the throats of our opponents in the second and third quarters. This is what good teams do!! They kill any hopes you have of making it a fourth quarter game. With MElo, we would "cheat the game" by relying on him to win us games in the fourth. Now we are playing consistent, hard, and we require an opponents full attention for the entire 48.

5. With Melo we were less volatile on the offensive end in terms of points for per game (STDEV 11.89 vs. 14.11, that's 18.67% less consistent), however, we still average the same point total of 107 PPG

This shows that we maybe less consistent on the offensive end, but we still average the same point scored per game. This number can be a little mis-leading, but at least offensively we were more consistent with MElo.

6. With MElo we were more volatile on the defensive end in terms of points against per game(STDEV 12.41 vs. 10.21, that's 21.55% more consistent), however the nuggets are giving up on average 10.54 PPG less.

This is one of my favorite numbers. This shows that the Newgets defense is more consistent in terms of points allowed. We are winning defensive battles and keeping teams scoring down.

These stats that I've laid before you give some numerical evidence of just how much better our Newgets are. Just watching this team play you can tell they are better, you can tell that they give full effort, you can tell that they actually rotate correctly on pick and rolls, you can tell that people actually care. None of these observations require any stats or data, but it helps us better gauge how much better this team is than its predecessor. I'm not sure if these trends will continue into next year, but at least for this year, I have finally been able to watch my Newgets give a full 48 minute defensive effort on a nightly basis.

With MElo we gave up 25 or more in the second quarter 71.43% of the time (this was our worst quarter out of the 4)

Without MElo we give up 25 or more in the second quarter only 28.57% of the time. That's a 42.86% difference!!!!

Without MElo we score more than 25 in the second quarter 71.43% which is a 5.36% increase than with MElo.

Powder Blue wrote:Did Melo ever lose 4 straight in Denver? I'm almost sure he never did.

I know he never went 1-7 as a Nugget

Powder Blue wrote:Did Melo ever lose 4 straight in Denver? I'm almost sure he never did.

I know he never went 1-7 as a Nugget