2. Denver Nuggets (43-23)
I know, I know, you think I'm insane. But before you have me committed, hear me out.
If I had to bet on a long-shot team to win the title, Denver would absolutely, positively be the one. Not only are the Nuggets better than people realize, they have more potential for in-season improvement than any other team because of all their trade assets. More importantly, the regular-season format favors them more than any other team in the league.
Remember Portland in 1999, a team with no stars that won big in the lockout season because they threw waves of depth at their weary opponents? This team is the second coming of that squad, minus the technical fouls and incarcerations. The Nuggets go 12 deep, and George Karl, more than perhaps any other coach in basketball, will absolutely use all 12. I'm convinced it's his dream to become the first coach in history to have 12 players average exactly 20.0 minutes and 8.8 points a game, and he may come close to that goal this season.
Think about this: Andre Miller, Rudy Fernandez, Corey Brewer, Al Harrington and Chris Andersen are Denver's second five. (The starters are projected to be Ty Lawson, Arron Afflalo, Danilo Gallinari, Timofey Mozgov and Nene.) Behind them are two rookie first-round draft picks, Jordan Hamilton and Kenneth Faried, both of whom should contribute immediately. Somewhere in there, beginning around midseason or sooner, is Wilson Chandler too.
Throw in two other factors and I really like Denver this season. First, they're good: They went gangbusters after the Melo trade last season, going 19-6 with a scoring margin greater than 10 points a game before playing the JV in the finale against Utah. They struggled in the playoffs when they had to depend more on starters-versus-starters matchups and suffered injuries in the backcourt. They'll likely struggle in the postseason again this season unless they procure another quality big.
But in the regular season? Forget it. The second reason to expect Denver to excel is that the combination of altitude and pace is going to wreak havoc on opponents. With Lawson and Miller pushing the tempo, waves of fresh players checking in -- nearly all of whom can run -- and exhausted teams sucking wind in the Mile High altitude, I expect the Nuggets to have a ridiculous home record on the order of 28-5 or so. If they achieve that, they need to be only a 15-18 road team to fulfill my prediction. (My projection, by the way, includes a small dose of Wilson Chandler at season's end, but no Kenyon Martin or J.R. Smith.)
That prediction is based on the roster staying as is. But remember, too, the upshot of Denver's stealth robbery of the Knicks in the Carmelo Anthony trade. The Nuggets have as many trade assets as any other team in the league. They have a $12 million trade exception from the Anthony deal, lots of young, talented players that other teams want, and a $7.8 million expiring contract belonging to Miller.
If the Nuggets can swing that into another quality big man, their playoff ceiling goes much higher. Barring that, they'll have a great regular season and another early playoff exit.
But in the big picture, everybody is sleeping on this team. With overwhelming depth, two potential breakout players in Lawson and Gallinari, and tons of trade assets, the Nuggets are in fantastic shape.
the whole list is as follows;
1. okc
2. nuggets
3. spurs
4. clippers
5. lakers
6. mavericks
7. blazers
8. grizz
9. rockets
10. wolves
11. jazz
12. warriors
13. kings
14. suns
15. hornets
