Nuggets 360 degree comprehensive review

[scottcarman]

So it’s the start of the season and here is my 360 comprehensive review of where I see the Nuggets at the start of the season.

First let’s talk about the talent and how I feel about each of the positions with my predicted minutes distribution:

PG- Lawson (32 mpg), Miller (12), Iggy (4) – This is the most stable positions on the Nuggets. Consistency and professionalism is expected from this squad. The big question is if Lawson has another level of progression to be a consistently dominant PG and can he be a Top 5-10 PG? He is a good but not great PG now, but is young enough that there is still reason to believe that he has one or two more seasons of distinct improvement. Time for him to earn 12M/year. The PG position should outplay the opponent on most nights.

SG- Iggy (25), Miller (10), Hamilton (10), Chandler (3) – Iggy will be expected to defend the best perimeter player on the other team. Iggy is the ‘glue’ position for the Nuggets. A Scottie Pippen type of player. Hamilton is the big wild card. He certainly has the talent and every indication is that he has really turned professional and changed his approach to learning the game. He is a good candidate to be a surprise impact player on the Nuggets. I could see Hamilton transforming into an impact 6th man over the next couple of years. If he defends and hits the three then he will play.

SF- Gallo (25), Chandler (10), Iggy (8) – The Nuggets should have really solid play at this position. The Advanced Stats of Gallo, Chandler, and Iggy all indicate the SF Position should outplay the opponent on any given night. This squad will hopefully wear down teams with a superstar SF but not much depth. Gallo also slides to playing some PF to create minutes for Chandler. Gallo’s advanced stats at the PF position from last year were quite promising and in the new era of small ball will be viable against a lot of teams. Can Gallo stay healthy? Will Chandler bounce back from hip surgery.

PF- Faried (25), Gallo (10), Koufos (8), AR (5) – This is the position with the biggest question marks. Faried put up some very impressive stats as a rookie and appears to be training professionally and taking basketball seriously as demonstrated by the work with Hakeem. I am not sure that he has ever had the type of coaching that Hakeem was teaching. Little things like muscle memory make a difference. It’s obvious that Faried also needs to work a little bit on fundamentals. Even though he creates a lot of havoc, he also creates situations where the defense is out of position and the advanced stats show that even with his production, the Nuggets do not always play well as a team on both offense and defense when he is on the floor. This is typical of big men and the hope is that he takes a big step forward this year with the fundamentals and team aspects.

C- McGee (28), Koufos (15), Mozgov (5) – Similar to the PF position, the C position is filled with Question marks. Will McGee live up to his contract? Will McGee reduce the number of mistakes due to inattention or apathy? Can he be consistent and focused? Seriously, maybe the guy needs some ADD meds. It’s simple, if McGee takes the next step then it adds a completely new dimension to the Nuggets that could propel them to the next level. Koufos could be exciting as well. His rebounding rate and PER are pretty impressive. One writer even predicted a Gortat-like progression for Koufos this year. Mozgov is young, a big body, and has had success at times in both the NBA and international competition. He just seems like the odd man out, but that could change quickly.

Minute distribution:
Iggy 37 mpg
Gallo 35 mpg
Lawson 32 mpg
McGee 28 mpg
Faried 25 mpg
Koufos 23 mpg
Miller 22 mpg
Chandler 13 mpg
Hamilton 10 mpg
Randolph 5 mpg
Mozgov 5 mpg
Fournier (injury minutes)
Brewer ?? (he is probably taking somebodies minutes.)

The wing position is loaded and if they go with my minute distribution then I would expect that Dre will not be thrilled with only 22 mpg, Chandler/Brewer/Hamilton will not be happy at around 10-12 or less mpg and they probably deserve more. McGee/Koufos/Mozgov will be fighting for minutes and may not get consistent play time.

I don’t think the Nuggets will make any lateral trades -> one player for one player. They have depth, youth, and potential at every position and most fans want to stick with our horses unless there is an upgrade. I believe the Nuggets have so much depth that they would prefer a 2 for 1 or even a 3 for 1 if the right deal came around. With that being said, I only see the Nuggets doing a deal if one of the following players became available (Horford, JSmoove, Love, Aldridge). The Nuggets have plenty of rebuilding assets but won’t sell the farm. Ideally they want Love or Aldridge, but I am not sure that opportunity will arise. I would think that trades would be centered around Faried or McGee, Gallo or Chandler, probably Mozgov/Brewer/Fournier as fillers to fit the needs of the receiving team. I personally like the offer based around Faried/Gallo for either Love or Aldridge but not sure those opportunities will present themselves.

From a financial standpoint: We should be well below the luxury tax threshold for this year. With Lawson’s extension next year, the Nuggets should be approaching the luxury tax threshold next year, but I am certain that it was not coincidence that the Nuggets are just below the cap after the extension, some questions remain about whether Brewer/Mozgov will be retained after this year, it may depend on trades and if they will fit under the luxury tax. Or they may be used as useful role players that have expiring contracts in trade situations. Yes, the nuggets have an enormous trade exception but I don’t see them taking on much salary because it would all basically be luxury taxable money and is therefore much more then dollar for dollar. If the nuggets believed that they needed it to get the final pieces for a realistic championship shot, then I could see them using the large TPE, but not just to get a little bit better. The Nuggets have almost the entire roster signed for several more years. There is room in the cap to have Iggy resigned as long as he isn’t expecting huge raises. With the average age in the low twenties and the time to work together for 3 or 4 years, this could be a very dangerous team as the Lakers, Heat, San Antonio, Boston all get older. This looks like a team that is primed to peak in 3 or 4 years as some of the older teams try to reload but could be a surprise team earlier.

Prediction and Summary: I predict the Nuggets will win 54 games this season and be a 3 seed in the western conference with a second round exit to the Lakers in the playoffs.

The Nuggets have so many if’s:
If Ty Lawson can play more consistently,
If Gallo can stay healthy
If Faried takes the next step in his progress and plays consistent/fundamental basketball
If McGee can live up to his contract and play consistent/fundamental basketball
If Iggy makes a difference on perimeter defense.

I would say that the Nuggets need 3 out of the 5 if statements above to become true to make this season really interesting. If all 5 come true then the Nuggets will be mentioned as serious darkhorse contenders to win the title. If less than 3 out of the 5 happen then I predict around 48 wins and struggling for a final playoff spot.