RealGM

I've been watching the NBATV reviews on each team (still waiting for just a few, including Denver). I've been reading season previews/forecasts such as on NBA.COM/PREVIEWS and some other sites. These people are busy predicting the rankings and then justifying their predictions. Denver is usually ranked last in the NW Division and well out of the playoffs.

Yet as I read their justifications, I begin to wonder. Forget what they are saying about Denver, because Denver is going to be hard to predict. I would expect them to win a minimum of 39 games but I'm fairly optimistic. I would expect Denver to win upwards of 44 games. But most of these so-called experts predict Denver to win somewhere around 32-35 games.

As I was saying, forget what they are saying about Denver and look at what they are saying about some of the competition. Most would agree the top three in the west will be Warriors, Spurs, Clippers and the next group of three is most likely Trailblazers, Thunder, Jazz but as you read the analysis of those teams, they all sound vulnerable - as in, one injury away from a big drop off. Now that's true for every team and we all know there are injuries every year and that likely drops one of those three out of the top six.

The next group, battling for 7th & 8th should probably include Memphis, Minnesota, Dallas, New Orleans, Houston, and Denver at the bottom. (Leaving the Lakers, Kings, and Suns out of the discussion.) If one of the 3-6 teams falls, it could be that 3 of the six in this group will make the playoffs. Memphis is dependent upon some aged veterans and that always leaves a team vulnerable. Minnesota has Towns and a bunch of players not living up to potential (sounds worse than Denver when some of these guys write about them). Dallas looks like the best of the group but they are depending on three guards over 30 plus Dirk. Their biggest plus is Bogut playing limited minutes and Barnes becoming their number one offensive threat - likely, but a question. New Orleans has a star that has never played more than 68 games in four seasons and the highest paid player ever, who isn't even ranked in the top 10 at his position and a rookie SG. Houston is filled with question marks and an experiment based around one of the greatest offensive players of all time. Their big question is: can they actually play defense?

I'll give Dallas a nod as the 7th pick and choose Denver for the 9th pick, lower is a better draft pick, but they might come this close. Who makes #8? I have no idea but based on these so-called experts, I wouldn't bet on any of those teams.

Golden State
San Antonio
LAC

Portland
Utah
OKC

Dallas
??? Memphis-Minnesota-New Orleans-Houston-Denver

Denver anywhere from 8-12, hoping for 9 or 10.

Denver always seem to be underestimated as of late, due in part to their their youth. However the so-called experts predicted the Nuggets would only win 26 games last year which we surpassed by 7 wins. I think Denver could get to 41 wins myself, more likely 39wins so not sure where that will put us in the standings but we'll be in contention for the playoffs. Hard to argue with the top 6 you selected and DAL does look like the team with the best overall team. So that leaves MEM/MIN/NOP/HOU/DEN. I think Memphis has a lot of aging, injury-prone vets but they have experience and savvy, and Conley will want to prove he's worth the contract he was given. That said, I think they're too old to run with the West. Houston has some good talent with Harden leading the way, Gordon in a backup role should make him more effective and Anderson will regain his promise once again, so can't count them either. New Orleans has AD...and that's about all, Hield has the look of a strong rookie, but with as much as he'll be counted on, will he hit the rookie wall ? I don't see them making the playoffs. Minnesota will be fun to watch with their youth and talent. KAT and Wiggins will be All-Stars at one point or another, add in LaVine, Dunn, Rubio and Dieng and they have some talent and depth on that team. Thibs is a very good coach but when will his act start to wear on the team/FO, seems inevitable to me but not in his first year. They're too young, first year in a new system, etc...they just fall short of the playoffs into the 9th spot IMO.

If I were to predict, here's how I see them stacking up

GSW
SAS
LAC
POR
OKC
UTH
DAL
HOU

MIN
MEM
DEN
NOP
PHX
SAC
LAL

Only good thing is we would have two lottery picks !!

It's funny, I see Vegas has us at 34.5 wins this year. Guess getting Chandler, Gallo and Nurkic back fully recovered from injuries, another year of experience for Jokic, Mudiay, Harris and Barton as well as three promising rookies only equates to 1.5 more wins than last season.....

Hard to argue with your predictions - especially because they are close to mine

skywalker33 wrote:It's funny, I see Vegas has us at 34.5 wins this year. Guess getting Chandler, Gallo and Nurkic back fully recovered from injuries, another year of experience for Jokic, Mudiay, Harris and Barton as well as three promising rookies only equates to 1.5 more wins than last season.....

People put too much faith in Vegas, whether it is the over/under or the line on a game or season; need to remember that Vegas is NEVER about predicting the actually outcome. They are about affecting the betting. They want the money basically split on both sides until right at the end, when the majority of the money is coming in and then they'll adjust where they think they'll make money. Something like wins-on-the-year will be adjust multiple times through the year and if one were a gambler and fairly confident Denver was going to be over 34.5, now is the time to place the bet.

I think even with the young team, he'll have at least 38 wins and will be fighting for the 8 Seed


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM mobile app

If DAL has many eggs like they layed vs. the Nuggets in the last preseason game, they'll be looking at a mid-lottery pick