So, what do you expect from Jamal Murray ?

[skywalker33]

Jamal Murray is going into his 2nd season as a Denver Nuggets. He gritted out his 1st season with a sports hernia for all 82 games. Despite the debilitating injury he still managed 10/2/2.5 with limited athleticism (perhaps due to his injury ?). Projected to enter his sophomore season as the starting PG position alongside Gary Harris, Nikola Jokic, Wilson Chandler and newly acquired Paul Milsap, this presents a lot of possibilities. What do you think his stat line for the season will turn out.

I say 17ppg 4apg 3.5rpg 2spg

[NuggetsWY]

Well, I know what I expect, the question is, what will Malone allow him to do?
I expect he'll start the year on the bench. I expect he'll be starting by January 1st.
I expect his stat line will not be so good early, but after he starts playing 30+ mpg;

I'll agree with 17 ppg and add 5 apg with the 3.5 rpg and looking for about 3 spg - but that's only after he starts & gets 30 mpg.

His year-end stats will probably be more like 14 ppg, 3.5 apg, 3 rpg, 1.5 spg.

[THE J0KER]

I say 17ppg 4apg 3.5rpg 2spg

He is just 20 years old, so even with starter role, he shouldn't play more than 25 minutes per game in average next season.
Your projection seems correct to me if he goes to play around 30 minutes per game, but I think 25 minutes are more realistic.
Also, I agree what you say that his basic position next season will be PG, but that means in his case different assists/rebounds ratio than you predict. So if he is going to be our first PG option next season, my final projection is:

25mpg 14ppg 4as 3rb 1.2s with very notable 2x3ptm and 90% FT%.

[SoCalNuggsFan]

I think there's too many capable finishers for him to avg 17 ppg. I'd say something more like 14/4/3 with a steal (3 steals is insane and would likely lead the league). Shoot something like 44/40/88.

Biggest thing I hope for him is that he becomes a go to scorer late in games. Jokic, millsap and Harris are great players but none really have the skill set to be a "give me the ball, get out of the way, I'm gonna get a bucket" guy. Murray could develop into that.

[youngthegiant]

At worst I see 14ppg,4apg,3rpg. Ceiling would be 20ppg,5apg,5rpg if he takes a leap I think is within reach.

[THE J0KER]

...Ceiling would be 20ppg,5apg,5rpg if...

Ceiling for Denver PG starter next season would be over 25p-5a-3r if... they take Irving

[The Rebel]

I would not expect Murray to score more than 15 ppg, Malone is never going to play him enough minutes to do more. So I would say 15 ppg, 5 assists, 3 rb, and 1.5 steals. More importantly I think he shoots 42% overall, 36% from 3, and 80% ft, which is what we really need him to do.

[Nuggets_Talk]

17 ppg next season is way too high

[NuggetsWY]

17 ppg next season is way too high

Maybe, but I think it depends more upon how many minutes he gets. If he only gets 20-24 mpg, no way he gets even 15 IMO. If he gets 30 mpg AND Jokic is on the floor for 20+ of those minutes, he might score 20 ppg. On the other hand, if Irving is on the team, even if Murray plays 30 mpg he might have trouble getting 15 ppg. Ask me again in April and I can give you a solid estimate.

[skywalker33]

17 ppg next season is way too high

Maybe, but I think it depends more upon how many minutes he gets. If he only gets 20-24 mpg, no way he gets even 15 IMO. If he gets 30 mpg AND Jokic is on the floor for 20+ of those minutes, he might score 20 ppg. On the other hand, if Irving is on the team, even if Murray plays 30 mpg he might have trouble getting 15 ppg. Ask me again in April and I can give you a solid estimate.

As a ROOKIE Murray got 21mpg, why is it hard to think he won't exceed that >? Also his shooting .pct in his first 6-10 games was horrific, dropping his .ppg which ended at 10ppg. Now barring Irving coming over w/o him or Harris going to CLE, I can easily see him raising his .mpg to 25-26 and along with it a better, more confident shooter

[NuggetsWY]

17 ppg next season is way too high

Maybe, but I think it depends more upon how many minutes he gets. If he only gets 20-24 mpg, no way he gets even 15 IMO. If he gets 30 mpg AND Jokic is on the floor for 20+ of those minutes, he might score 20 ppg. On the other hand, if Irving is on the team, even if Murray plays 30 mpg he might have trouble getting 15 ppg. Ask me again in April and I can give you a solid estimate.

As a ROOKIE Murray got 21mpg, why is it hard to think he won't exceed that >? Also his shooting .pct in his first 6-10 games was horrific, dropping his .ppg which ended at 10ppg. Now barring Irving coming over w/o him or Harris going to CLE, I can easily see him raising his .mpg to 25-26 and along with it a better, more confident shooter

Why might he not exceed his 21 mpg of last year? Malone! Especially if he gets Irving. I still expect him to play Nelson 24 mpg or better and Irving would get 30+ mpg. He likes Barton (understandable but ...). Even if Barton only plays 10 mpg at guard with more at SF, we're now talking 3 veterans at 65 mpg. Add in 30 mpg for Harris and that's a full game without giving Murray, Mudiay, Beasley any minutes. No, I do not believe it will go that bad, but Malone has proven he likes veterans. Unless Harris is traded for Irving, I don't see Malone giving him more than 20 mpg - not unless he has a break-out like Jokic did last year.

Remember how many were screaming for more minutes for Jokic by the All-Star break of his rookie season (and before)?
How many were screaming for more minutes for Jokic early last year? Malone reluctantly played Jokic, pulling him often for "foul trouble" and never putting him back in those games so he finished with 3 fouls per game. That is why I don't believe Murray will get the minutes, at least not at the start of the season. With or without Irving, Malone can still limit is minutes with Nelson, Harris, Barton.

[TunaFish]

Maybe, but I think it depends more upon how many minutes he gets. If he only gets 20-24 mpg, no way he gets even 15 IMO. If he gets 30 mpg AND Jokic is on the floor for 20+ of those minutes, he might score 20 ppg. On the other hand, if Irving is on the team, even if Murray plays 30 mpg he might have trouble getting 15 ppg. Ask me again in April and I can give you a solid estimate.

As a ROOKIE Murray got 21mpg, why is it hard to think he won't exceed that >? Also his shooting .pct in his first 6-10 games was horrific, dropping his .ppg which ended at 10ppg. Now barring Irving coming over w/o him or Harris going to CLE, I can easily see him raising his .mpg to 25-26 and along with it a better, more confident shooter

Why might he not exceed his 21 mpg of last year? Malone! Especially if he gets Irving. I still expect him to play Nelson 24 mpg or better and Irving would get 30+ mpg. He likes Barton (understandable but ...). Even if Barton only plays 10 mpg at guard with more at SF, we're now talking 3 veterans at 65 mpg. Add in 30 mpg for Harris and that's a full game without giving Murray, Mudiay, Beasley any minutes. No, I do not believe it will go that bad, but Malone has proven he likes veterans. Unless Harris is traded for Irving, I don't see Malone giving him more than 20 mpg - not unless he has a break-out like Jokic did last year.

Remember how many were screaming for more minutes for Jokic by the All-Star break of his rookie season (and before)?
How many were screaming for more minutes for Jokic early last year? Malone reluctantly played Jokic, pulling him often for "foul trouble" and never putting him back in those games so he finished with 3 fouls per game. That is why I don't believe Murray will get the minutes, at least not at the start of the season. With or without Irving, Malone can still limit is minutes with Nelson, Harris, Barton.

There is a pattern but it is not unusual for a veteran coach to hold back rookies particularly when they need some grooming. Murray looked lost at the beginning of the season actually missing nearly all of shots. Earlier his defense was terrible. Jokic also was pretty raw and needed development.

Improvement is the key and Murray, Jokic and Harris all showed a lot of it. With Millsap these are your best players and you have to expect them to get better.

Unless one is traded, I think it is possible to see close to 20 point a game averages from at least two of them.

[NuggetsWY]

There is a pattern but it is not unusual for a veteran coach to hold back rookies particularly when they need some grooming. Murray looked lost at the beginning of the season actually missing nearly all of shots. Earlier his defense was terrible. Jokic also was pretty raw and needed development.

Improvement is the key and Murray, Jokic and Harris all showed a lot of it. With Millsap these are your best players and you have to expect them to get better.

Unless one is traded, I think it is possible to see close to 20 point a game averages from at least two of them.

Very true and young coaches are even more prone to rely on veterans and Malone has less than 4 years of experience now, after 2 years with the Nuggets. So he's barely reached the "veteran status" especially because coaching the Sacramento Cousins was not very good experience IMO.

I do expect Jokic, Millsap/Lyles, Chandler/Hernangomez, Harris, Murray to get better. Throw Barton in there and hopefully some minutes for Beasley and Mudiay - no doubt some minutes for Plumlee (assuming he signs). IMO that leaves Nelson, Faried, Arthur without many minutes and I just doubt Malone will do that. I'm a skeptic. I've yet to see the Nuggets do what the front office and head coach have said. "Defense" & "Development" & "Player's coach" (who now has had multiple players complaining and at least a couple that were mis-handled) - etc. My challenge to them is to stop saying and start doing. I'm ready to get excited again, but I'm still not a believer. I was not a Karl fan, but I liked a lot of what he did. I was ready to cheer Shaw and lost that desire early on. Two years later I was ready to cheer Malone and I've lost the faith. I'm waiting. I want to believe this year, but I'm skeptical.

[U hova]

Garris couldn't crack 15 ppg so I doubt Jamal will. I don't doubt his ability to score when he needs to, but the ball is still going to be in Jokic's hands primarily. What I really expect out of him is 1 or 2 iso-s during those clock-management moments that we were relying on Gallo or Jameer for last season... late last season we ran a set to end quarters where Jamal would run through screens after an interval, but I want to see him handling the ball more.

[NuggetsWY]

Garris couldn't crack 15 ppg so I doubt Jamal will. I don't doubt his ability to score when he needs to, but the ball is still going to be in Jokic's hands primarily. What I really expect out of him is 1 or 2 iso-s during those clock-management moments that we were relying on Gallo or Jameer for last season... late last season we ran a set to end quarters where Jamal would run through screens after an interval, but I want to see him handling the ball more.

End of quarters more often saw Nelson or maybe Barton pound the air out of the ball and then take a tough shot.
But I hope you're right.

[THE J0KER]

Why might he not exceed his 21 mpg of last year? Malone!

In Murray 2017-18 case average minutes per game should be around 25 minutes per game anyway, no matter how much he will improve, who will be other guards on our roster, or who is a coach, simply because Jamal is still just 20 years old guy. Close to 30 minutes average should not be considered seriously in any case until February and his 21st birthday, why to risk anything connected to probably future all-star player? He will be ready for full 30+ mpg (even 35+) schedule already since the start of very next 2018-19 season, so why push and rush him? There are just few NBA guards drafted at 19 which played a full schedule at 20, and most of them have injury issues during that year or even later. If he will play 25m in average until February and 30 after that (similar to Nikola Jokic case from previous season), it would be 27mpg for the season, and OK, I will not complain, but if he will be allowed to play 30+ since early start of the season, it would be unnecessary risk and mistake IMO.

[NuggetsWY]

Why might he not exceed his 21 mpg of last year? Malone!

In Murray 2017-18 case average minutes per game should be around 25 minutes per game anyway, no matter how much he will improve, who will be other guards on our roster, or who is a coach, simply because Jamal is still just 20 years old guy. Close to 30 minutes average should not be considered seriously in any case until February and his 21st birthday, why to risk anything connected to probably future all-star player? He will be ready for full 30+ mpg (even 35+) schedule already since the start of very next 2018-19 season, so why push and rush him? There are just few NBA guards drafted at 19 which played a full schedule at 20, and most of them have injury issues during that year or even later. If he will play 25m in average until February and 30 after that (similar to Nikola Jokic case from previous season), it would be 27mpg for the season, and OK, I will not complain, but if he will be allowed to play 30+ since early start of the season, it would be unnecessary risk and mistake IMO.

and it just seems that age doesn't matter that much - skill, ability, fit should be all that matters
saying he needs more time to develop would be the best argument except advanced statistics says Murray played better with Jokic than any other guard on the roster

What will probably hold back his minutes is
SG - Harris 30+ mpg with Barton getting 10 mpg at SG and more at SF plus Beasley getting 8 mpg
PG - Nelson 25+ mpg and Mudiay getting 10+ mpg
Even if Murray starts at PG (which seems unlikely for coach Malone), He's just not going to get tons of minutes.

[THE J0KER]

Summer of 2018 bump

Some guy on Forbes magazine covers NBA analytically, and his favorite team which he uses to show how basketball analytics works is Nuggets! This week his focus is on Jamal Murray and his and Denver defense.

He has several good points in this article: The Most Important Leap Jamal Murray Must Make For The Denver Nuggets Is On Defense

[skywalker33]

I say 17ppg 4apg 3.5rpg 2spg

Since this was bumped, thought I'd pat myself on the back. Murray went for 16.7ppg, 3.4apg, 3.7rpg and 1spg....pretty close

[TunaFish]

I say 17ppg 4apg 3.5rpg 2spg

Since this was bumped, thought I'd pat myself on the back. Murray went for 16.7ppg, 3.4apg, 3.7rpg and 1spg....pretty close

How about another prediction. I think this is the year he crosses 20 ppg.