Trades - 2018 off-season - 2019 FA market

[THE J0KER]

I liked what I saw from Giles, raw but has talent that I think Malone can nurture.

On a much richer scale, what’s the consesus on hoe D. Sabonis would fit next to Joker and would the cost be prohibitive ?

I love Sabonis but I'm not sure he fits next to Jokic - they are both somewhat earthbound but on the other hand, they are both very intelligent players with good all around games at both ends (and both highly underrated on the defensive end IMO).

Sabonis is a great prospect, but he didn't prove so far he can be even close that good on PF spot as he is good at the center position, which basically backs us at well-known Jokic-Nurkic problem. The real Baltic big-man option may be Kristaps Porzingis if New York Knicks don't want to gamble their future with injury risky player. We can send Barton, Plumlee, Lyles, IT, Juancho, and 2021 first, and then catch any offer for KP this summer, including max ones.

I just read a rumour saying potential discussions with Wizards based on Ariza x Barton + Lyles.

Actually I like this one

Ariza is expiring player, and Wizards are probably going to tank this season after season-ending injury of John Wall. That can be just one part of some bigger (3 teams?) deal where some other players included also, otherwise, I don't see much sense in it. Until Beal and Porter are still there, Washington doesn't need a Barton so much, and Lyles expiring anyway. For Denver, it may be a way to get rid of Barton contract which is probably worth money of his contract as a player, but not in Denver in the next three years when we have new SF starter in MPJ and much cheaper good backup guards/SF in Beasley, Morris, Craig, and Juancho. But why to hurry already this season, if, at the end of the day, we can trade Barton at the end of this season where he can be used as a starter until the end. He is not a negative asset.

[skywalker33]

I love Sabonis but I'm not sure he fits next to Jokic - they are both somewhat earthbound but on the other hand, they are both very intelligent players with good all around games at both ends (and both highly underrated on the defensive end IMO).

Sabonis is a great prospect, but he didn't prove so far he can be even close that good on PF spot as he is good at the center position, which basically backs us at well-known Jokic-Nurkic problem. The real Baltic big-man option may be Kristaps Porzingis if New York Knicks don't want to gamble their future with injury risky player. We can send Barton, Plumlee, Lyles, IT, Juancho, and 2021 first, and then catch any offer for KP this summer, including max ones. [/quote]

Yeah, how he'd work together with Jokic is a big concern to me as well but he fits the role I'd like to see replace Millsap - young, good size, strong defender and can shoot. Given he meets those criteria most all teams could use a guy like him. That said though, just because Nurkic didn't fit next to Jokic or that Sabonis doesn't work next to Turner doesn't mean he can't work with Jokic.

KP would also work if he comes back healthy but is he cost effective for us ?? What you offered is a starter in Barton and almost ALL of one of the best benches in the NBA PLUS IT2 and a future 1st ??? That's a huge over payment IMO

I just read a rumour saying potential discussions with Wizards based on Ariza x Barton + Lyles.

No way could WAS do this without getting a 3rd team involved, they are already in Cap Hell and that trade would add like $6-8M onto their Luxury Tax bill and they aren't going to do that.

[Manolito]

I love Sabonis but I'm not sure he fits next to Jokic - they are both somewhat earthbound but on the other hand, they are both very intelligent players with good all around games at both ends (and both highly underrated on the defensive end IMO).

Sabonis is a great prospect, but he didn't prove so far he can be even close that good on PF spot as he is good at the center position, which basically backs us at well-known Jokic-Nurkic problem. The real Baltic big-man option may be Kristaps Porzingis if New York Knicks don't want to gamble their future with injury risky player. We can send Barton, Plumlee, Lyles, IT, Juancho, and 2021 first, and then catch any offer for KP this summer, including max ones.

I just read a rumour saying potential discussions with Wizards based on Ariza x Barton + Lyles.

No way could WAS do this without getting a 3rd team involved, they are already in Cap Hell and that trade would add like $6-8M onto their Luxury Tax bill and they aren't going to do that.[/quote]Washington has been in talks to Sacramento about Otto Porter including Randolph + WCS + fillers all the season. Sacramento has still some cap available and many expirings.

I dont say it will happen, simply that it could make sense.


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[skywalker33]

I love Sabonis but I'm not sure he fits next to Jokic - they are both somewhat earthbound but on the other hand, they are both very intelligent players with good all around games at both ends (and both highly underrated on the defensive end IMO).

Sabonis is a great prospect, but he didn't prove so far he can be even close that good on PF spot as he is good at the center position, which basically backs us at well-known Jokic-Nurkic problem. The real Baltic big-man option may be Kristaps Porzingis if New York Knicks don't want to gamble their future with injury risky player. We can send Barton, Plumlee, Lyles, IT, Juancho, and 2021 first, and then catch any offer for KP this summer, including max ones.

I just read a rumour saying potential discussions with Wizards based on Ariza x Barton + Lyles.

No way could WAS do this without getting a 3rd team involved, they are already in Cap Hell and that trade would add like $6-8M onto their Luxury Tax bill and they aren't going to do that.

Washington has been in talks to Sacramento about Otto Porter including Randolph + WCS + fillers all the season. Sacramento has still some cap available and many expirings.

I dont say it will happen, simply that it could make sense.


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Agreed, Ariza would look good here, I could see Lyles, a TPE and a 2nd (if that's possible ?) for Ariza I'd do it. Would lower WAS caps number and give us another strone defender that could play SF as well.

[NuggetsWY]

Sabonis is a great prospect, but he didn't prove so far he can be even close that good on PF spot as he is good at the center position, which basically backs us at well-known Jokic-Nurkic problem. The real Baltic big-man option may be Kristaps Porzingis if New York Knicks don't want to gamble their future with injury risky player. We can send Barton, Plumlee, Lyles, IT, Juancho, and 2021 first, and then catch any offer for KP this summer, including max ones.

I just read a rumour saying potential discussions with Wizards based on Ariza x Barton + Lyles.

No way could WAS do this without getting a 3rd team involved, they are already in Cap Hell and that trade would add like $6-8M onto their Luxury Tax bill and they aren't going to do that.

Washington has been in talks to Sacramento about Otto Porter including Randolph + WCS + fillers all the season. Sacramento has still some cap available and many expirings.

I dont say it will happen, simply that it could make sense.

Agreed, Ariza would look good here, I could see Lyles, a TPE and a 2nd (if that's possible ?) for Ariza I'd do it. Would lower WAS caps number and give us another strone defender that could play SF as well.[/quote]
First 2nd available from us is our 2023 2nd; the rest have been traded.
Not an expert on TPEs but I do believe Ariza for Lyles works. We have 3 TPEs available.
Not sure I like this trade in the long-run but I'd do it. It certainly would help this year and won't hurt much down the road. It's a least a starting point for discussion.

[The Rebel]

No way could WAS do this without getting a 3rd team involved, they are already in Cap Hell and that trade would add like $6-8M onto their Luxury Tax bill and they aren't going to do that.

Washington has been in talks to Sacramento about Otto Porter including Randolph + WCS + fillers all the season. Sacramento has still some cap available and many expirings.

I dont say it will happen, simply that it could make sense.

Agreed, Ariza would look good here, I could see Lyles, a TPE and a 2nd (if that's possible ?) for Ariza I'd do it. Would lower WAS caps number and give us another strone defender that could play SF as well.

First 2nd available from us is our 2023 2nd; the rest have been traded.
Not an expert on TPEs but I do believe Ariza for Lyles works. We have 3 TPEs available.
Not sure I like this trade in the long-run but I'd do it. It certainly would help this year and won't hurt much down the road. It's a least a starting point for discussion.

Washington reportedly wanted Barton bad at the deadline. He is a good fit for what they need off the bench. They may really like Lyles. I think if they can find a way to get Barton they will do it. They reportedly want to reshuffle the team as their current mix is not going to cut it, but I doubt they blow it up though.

There is only way that the Nuggets front office does it, and that is if they think that Juancho is going to be good enough to replace Barton. I think that they may be comfortable with that idea right now. This brings in a veteran leader with playoff experience, and is a good 5th starter at this point that is expiring and opens up another $13 million in cap space. Enough to sign a $31 million max or any player with less than 9 years experience.

It could be one heck of a deal.

[THE J0KER]

If Washington still dreaming about playoff after John Wall injury, PG Isaiah Thomas may be very interesting for them. And they don't need to wait right offer for Otto Porter from Kings to make deal with Denver, because we are also interested in him, so they can send Ariza in Sacramento (their last chance to improve enough to compete for the playoff) for cap space (bad Manhimi contract).

Otto Porter, Kosta Koufos to Nuggets
Zach Randolph, Will Barton, Mason Plumlee, Trey Lyles, Isaiah Thomas to Wizards
Trevor Ariza, Ian Mahinmi to Kings

[The Rebel]

If we do manage to do a deal to move one of Plumlee or Barton for an expiring contract than I hope we offer Porzingis (if healthy) the max the minute free agency starts, the Knicks will be forced to make a quick decision as they are reportedly wanting to go after Durant and some of the other big names, we could end up with him just because the Knicks are trying to figure out the big names. I still think he is the perfect fit next to Jokic.

[NuggetsWY]

If we do manage to do a deal to move one of Plumlee or Barton for an expiring contract than I hope we offer Porzingis (if healthy) the max the minute free agency starts, the Knicks will be forced to make a quick decision as they are reportedly wanting to go after Durant and some of the other big names, we could end up with him just because the Knicks are trying to figure out the big names. I still think he is the perfect fit next to Jokic.

If I understand things correctly, signing Porzingis to a 3 year contract means the max would be 25% of the cap. That's a lot, but I'd LOVE it. It might make things difficult for our front office down the road, but are you kidding me? Jokic w/Porzingis plus Harris w/Murray and hoping to see Porter in that mix? Wow!

[Manolito]

I am also in onboard Porzingis train. He is the perfect fit to Jokic.

Why the hell did Connelly give Plumlee such a contract? 41Mx3 for a backup center, the cheapest position in the League?? I guess he did not want to admit Nurkic trade error.

I find impossible to dump Plumlee contract. We have no second rounds in the near future and giving away 2021 first Pick is too expensive. Stretching him does not worth it.

I can only See the Kings absorbing his contract. They have no C (I guess WCS will be gone) and lot of cap.

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[skywalker33]

I am also in onboard Porzingis train. He is the perfect fit to Jokic.

Why the hell did Connelly give Plumlee such a contract? 41Mx3 for a backup center, the cheapest position in the League?? I guess he did not want to admit Nurkic trade error.

I find impossible to dump Plumlee contract. We have no second rounds in the near future and giving away 2021 first Pick is too expensive. Stretching him does not worth it.

I can only See the Kings absorbing his contract. They have no C (I guess WCS will be gone) and lot of cap.

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Well, Plumlee has shown his worth to the league, he could easily start for quite a few teams so at his current price he be good value as a starter.

I like Porzingis but it's not like we can have high price players at every position. If we could get KP, would we be able to sign Murray when he comes up ? Wouldn't someone just do to us what's being proposed we do to the Knicks ?? And not that KP wouldn't fit right in, Murray has shown to be much more of an ironman than KP and I do like that in a player. That would be an interesting frontcourt with KP/Jokic/MPJ/Vanderbilt/Juancho....off-the-chart scoring potential !!

[NuggetsWY]

I am also in onboard Porzingis train. He is the perfect fit to Jokic.

Why the hell did Connelly give Plumlee such a contract? 41Mx3 for a backup center, the cheapest position in the League?? I guess he did not want to admit Nurkic trade error.

I find impossible to dump Plumlee contract. We have no second rounds in the near future and giving away 2021 first Pick is too expensive. Stretching him does not worth it.

I can only See the Kings absorbing his contract. They have no C (I guess WCS will be gone) and lot of cap.

Well, Plumlee has shown his worth to the league, he could easily start for quite a few teams so at his current price he be good value as a starter.

I like Porzingis but it's not like we can have high price players at every position. If we could get KP, would we be able to sign Murray when he comes up ? Wouldn't someone just do to us what's being proposed we do to the Knicks ?? And not that KP wouldn't fit right in, Murray has shown to be much more of an ironman than KP and I do like that in a player. That would be an interesting frontcourt with KP/Jokic/MPJ/Vanderbilt/Juancho....off-the-chart scoring potential !!

Signing Plumlee isn't a total mistake. I agree, it was too high but the Nuggets have a history of over-paying their own players. Plumlee is an ideal backup center for Jokic, or so it seems.

True, we can not sign stars at every position but as we still develop our players, we can try to figure out who will be the most valuable. To sign Porzingis is easy, just don't exercise Millsap's team option.

[Manolito]

I am also in onboard Porzingis train. He is the perfect fit to Jokic.

Why the hell did Connelly give Plumlee such a contract? 41Mx3 for a backup center, the cheapest position in the League?? I guess he did not want to admit Nurkic trade error.

I find impossible to dump Plumlee contract. We have no second rounds in the near future and giving away 2021 first Pick is too expensive. Stretching him does not worth it.

I can only See the Kings absorbing his contract. They have no C (I guess WCS will be gone) and lot of cap.

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Well, Plumlee has shown his worth to the league, he could easily start for quite a few teams so at his current price he be good value as a starter.

I like Porzingis but it's not like we can have high price players at every position. If we could get KP, would we be able to sign Murray when he comes up ? Wouldn't someone just do to us what's being proposed we do to the Knicks ?? And not that KP wouldn't fit right in, Murray has shown to be much more of an ironman than KP and I do like that in a player. That would be an interesting frontcourt with KP/Jokic/MPJ/Vanderbilt/Juancho....off-the-chart scoring potential !!

I can't agree with Plumlee value. He is having pretty good advanced stats and is quite important at the locker room, but 14M is starting salary and he is far away from that. Actually he is our star backup and they can't play together (they did, but because of injuries), you can't spend such a big multiyear contract in this type of player.

I dont think he has any trade value in the League. He would be starter nowhere except maybe the Kings.

We need to get rid of Barton or Plumlee salary to max out KP. 2019 Cap is projected at 108M, and our payroll without Millsap is 92M. KP would earn 25% of the Cap, that means 27M.

We would need 11M extra to sign him



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[NuggetsWY]

I am also in onboard Porzingis train. He is the perfect fit to Jokic.

Why the hell did Connelly give Plumlee such a contract? 41Mx3 for a backup center, the cheapest position in the League?? I guess he did not want to admit Nurkic trade error.

I find impossible to dump Plumlee contract. We have no second rounds in the near future and giving away 2021 first Pick is too expensive. Stretching him does not worth it.

I can only See the Kings absorbing his contract. They have no C (I guess WCS will be gone) and lot of cap.

Well, Plumlee has shown his worth to the league, he could easily start for quite a few teams so at his current price he be good value as a starter.

I like Porzingis but it's not like we can have high price players at every position. If we could get KP, would we be able to sign Murray when he comes up ? Wouldn't someone just do to us what's being proposed we do to the Knicks ?? And not that KP wouldn't fit right in, Murray has shown to be much more of an ironman than KP and I do like that in a player. That would be an interesting frontcourt with KP/Jokic/MPJ/Vanderbilt/Juancho....off-the-chart scoring potential !!

I can't agree with Plumlee value. He is having pretty good advanced stats and is quite important at the locker room, but 14M is starting salary and he is far away from that. Actually he is our star backup and they can't play together (they did, but because of injuries), you can't spend such a big multiyear contract in this type of player.

I dont think he has any trade value in the League. He would be starter nowhere except maybe the Kings.

We need to get rid of Barton or Plumlee salary to max out KP. 2019 Cap is projected at 108M, and our payroll without Millsap is 92M. KP would earn 25% of the Cap, that means 27M.

We would need 11M extra to sign him

Yup, I'll agree with you that Plumlee is getting paid too much and maybe Barton but I'll disagree with your conclusion - neither salary is going to stop the Nuggets from signing a quality player, if they choose. They may hit the luxury tax, but they can do it. The key is to avoid the repeater tax and that would be the issue down the road.

[Manolito]

Well, Plumlee has shown his worth to the league, he could easily start for quite a few teams so at his current price he be good value as a starter.

I like Porzingis but it's not like we can have high price players at every position. If we could get KP, would we be able to sign Murray when he comes up ? Wouldn't someone just do to us what's being proposed we do to the Knicks ?? And not that KP wouldn't fit right in, Murray has shown to be much more of an ironman than KP and I do like that in a player. That would be an interesting frontcourt with KP/Jokic/MPJ/Vanderbilt/Juancho....off-the-chart scoring potential !!

I can't agree with Plumlee value. He is having pretty good advanced stats and is quite important at the locker room, but 14M is starting salary and he is far away from that. Actually he is our star backup and they can't play together (they did, but because of injuries), you can't spend such a big multiyear contract in this type of player.

I dont think he has any trade value in the League. He would be starter nowhere except maybe the Kings.

We need to get rid of Barton or Plumlee salary to max out KP. 2019 Cap is projected at 108M, and our payroll without Millsap is 92M. KP would earn 25% of the Cap, that means 27M.

We would need 11M extra to sign him

Yup, I'll agree with you that Plumlee is getting paid too much and maybe Barton but I'll disagree with your conclusion - neither salary is going to stop the Nuggets from signing a quality player, if they choose. They may hit the luxury tax, but they can do it. The key is to avoid the repeater tax and that would be the issue down the road.

If Nuggets hit already this season tax limit, next season Murray will be also max out, therefore it will be very difficult to avoid repeater tax.

I would not max out anybody this off season. I guess KP will remain in Knicks and Tobias does not worth it imo.

I would pay for any of the Morris twins (30Mx3 with TO last one) or Julius Randle (he will be expensive).

My bet, we renew Millsap 20Mx2 or similar.


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[The Rebel]

I am also in onboard Porzingis train. He is the perfect fit to Jokic.

Why the hell did Connelly give Plumlee such a contract? 41Mx3 for a backup center, the cheapest position in the League?? I guess he did not want to admit Nurkic trade error.

I find impossible to dump Plumlee contract. We have no second rounds in the near future and giving away 2021 first Pick is too expensive. Stretching him does not worth it.

I can only See the Kings absorbing his contract. They have no C (I guess WCS will be gone) and lot of cap.

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Well, Plumlee has shown his worth to the league, he could easily start for quite a few teams so at his current price he be good value as a starter.

I like Porzingis but it's not like we can have high price players at every position. If we could get KP, would we be able to sign Murray when he comes up ? Wouldn't someone just do to us what's being proposed we do to the Knicks ?? And not that KP wouldn't fit right in, Murray has shown to be much more of an ironman than KP and I do like that in a player. That would be an interesting frontcourt with KP/Jokic/MPJ/Vanderbilt/Juancho....off-the-chart scoring potential !!

I guess you are not understanding what we are doing to the Knicks, they have the cap space to sign a max deal while holding onto the bird rights and keeping Porzingis restricted. They did not even offer him an extension last summer to preserve there cap space. However they cannot match on Porzingis unless they sign a max free agent 1st. The likely hood we would have max cap space to sign a free agent and have to sign Murray/ Juancho/ Beasley is very low right now, so they would not have any opportunity to put us in the same position.

Yes we would be almost guaranteed to be in the luxury tax in 2020/21 with or without signing a max deal this summer. The likelyhood they get there this summer is low as long as they opt out of Millsap's deal. The Kroenkes have always said they would pay the luxury tax for a contender, and I do not see how a team with Jokic/ KP/ Harris/ Murray and a bench made up of our young guys is not a contender in 2 years.

[The Rebel]

I can't agree with Plumlee value. He is having pretty good advanced stats and is quite important at the locker room, but 14M is starting salary and he is far away from that. Actually he is our star backup and they can't play together (they did, but because of injuries), you can't spend such a big multiyear contract in this type of player.

I dont think he has any trade value in the League. He would be starter nowhere except maybe the Kings.

We need to get rid of Barton or Plumlee salary to max out KP. 2019 Cap is projected at 108M, and our payroll without Millsap is 92M. KP would earn 25% of the Cap, that means 27M.

We would need 11M extra to sign him

Yup, I'll agree with you that Plumlee is getting paid too much and maybe Barton but I'll disagree with your conclusion - neither salary is going to stop the Nuggets from signing a quality player, if they choose. They may hit the luxury tax, but they can do it. The key is to avoid the repeater tax and that would be the issue down the road.

If Nuggets hit already this season tax limit, next season Murray will be also max out, therefore it will be very difficult to avoid repeater tax.

I would not max out anybody this off season. I guess KP will remain in Knicks and Tobias does not worth it imo.

I would pay for any of the Morris twins (30Mx3 with TO last one) or Julius Randle (he will be expensive).

My bet, we renew Millsap 20Mx2 or similar.


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It is nearly impossible to get max cap space and hit the luxury tax in the same season, even the Heat signing Bosh/Wade/ Lebron and the role players did not hit the luxury tax 1st year. The rules of the salary cap prevent it.

Now whether it is Millsap or anybody else signing a $20 million deal that goes through 2020/2021 almost guarantees luxury tax in 2020/21

[skywalker33]

I am also in onboard Porzingis train. He is the perfect fit to Jokic.

Why the hell did Connelly give Plumlee such a contract? 41Mx3 for a backup center, the cheapest position in the League?? I guess he did not want to admit Nurkic trade error.

I find impossible to dump Plumlee contract. We have no second rounds in the near future and giving away 2021 first Pick is too expensive. Stretching him does not worth it.

I can only See the Kings absorbing his contract. They have no C (I guess WCS will be gone) and lot of cap.

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Well, Plumlee has shown his worth to the league, he could easily start for quite a few teams so at his current price he be good value as a starter.

I like Porzingis but it's not like we can have high price players at every position. If we could get KP, would we be able to sign Murray when he comes up ? Wouldn't someone just do to us what's being proposed we do to the Knicks ?? And not that KP wouldn't fit right in, Murray has shown to be much more of an ironman than KP and I do like that in a player. That would be an interesting frontcourt with KP/Jokic/MPJ/Vanderbilt/Juancho....off-the-chart scoring potential !!

I guess you are not understanding what we are doing to the Knicks, they have the cap space to sign a max deal while holding onto the bird rights and keeping Porzingis restricted. They did not even offer him an extension last summer to preserve there cap space. However they cannot match on Porzingis unless they sign a max free agent 1st. The likely hood we would have max cap space to sign a free agent and have to sign Murray/ Juancho/ Beasley is very low right now, so they would not have any opportunity to put us in the same position.

Yes we would be almost guaranteed to be in the luxury tax in 2020/21 with or without signing a max deal this summer. The likelyhood they get there this summer is low as long as they opt out of Millsap's deal. The Kroenkes have always said they would pay the luxury tax for a contender, and I do not see how a team with Jokic/ KP/ Harris/ Murray and a bench made up of our young guys is not a contender in 2 years.

No Rebel, I get EXACTLY what you said, I'm aware of the Knicks want to do in finding a max FA like Durant or Kyrie, it's all over the interweb . However, as you stated they won't be able to match unless they sign the FA first, but they do have 10 days to do it. With max FA's their price is already set, usually it's terms and desired fit (which would most likely include KP resigning) that are the holdup to their signing but that certainly can be done in 10 days. It also would tie up our funds from going after someone other than KP (like Millsap) for those 10 days unless we rescind the offer.

My point was, if we sign KP, are we pushing our cap so tight that we can't sign Murray (or Juancho/Beasley) the following year thus making us choose between a potentially injury-ridden KP or the iron-man Murray ? Even if we can sign Murray, what will that do to our bench because we won't be re-signing Plumlee, Beasley or Juancho and maybe even have to trade Barton as KP, Jokic, Harris and Murry will probably account for over $95M of our cap. You're the cap expert here, what goes on to open up $$ for a quality bench ? Just looking for more details of the plan

Other considerations must me weighed as well. We surely would need Millsap's cap space to sign KP and PM's option is up 6/29/19 before free agency starts. Do we risk losing him in an attempt to get KP, what happens if KP resigns with NY or any other team (SA wants him too) and PM gets miffed and signs somewhere else ? Who plays PF then ? Seems like a step backward in that scenario. Risky step for a promising team, but can be overpowering rewards as well.

Don't get me wrong, a lineup od Jokic/KP/Porter Jr/Harris/Murray has me drooling but a great team has a strong bench too, it's what's helped us this year. Going forward we'll need one and unless you want to start trading Beasley, Barton and Juancho how to we keep that part of the lineup ?

[Manolito]

2020 luxury tax has been estimated to 143M.

Nuggets players with contract until 2020 or beyond (Jokic, Harris, Barton, MPj, Morris & Vanderbilt) cost 56.5M.

Murray max cost 29.5M. Similar for Porzingis, in case Nuggets aigned him this summer.

To sum up, 8 players core would cost 115.5M. Nuggets would still have 28M to sign Beasley, Juancho and some fillers.

To sum up, Nuggets have 5 years Window (up to Jokic supermax) in a really good situation without even paying luxury tax.

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[U hova]

Actually 28M is what I'm hoping we'll get Beasley and Juancho under... I can see Beasley getting Barton money and Juancho a fair 15