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Something to keep in mind when talking about trading for guys. These numbers are based on BBall reference primarily but they seem reliable.

The salary cap is currently projected to be $101 million for the cap and the tax line $123 million. The tax tiers are projected to be $123-127.99 million cost a team $1.50 per dollar as a tax. For $128-132.999 million will cost a team $1.75 per dollar of tax. for 133-137.99 Million it is $2.50 per dollar spent. To top it off you have the repeater tax if you hit $4 million over the tax line and have been in the tax 2 of the last 3 years. Max contracts for guys with 6 years or less is 25% of the cap and either 4.5% or 7.5% raises and either 4 or 5 years depending on if he is a free agent or not.

Currently the team is slated to be at $107,475,362 million in salary cap for this summer. If they opt out of Jokic's deal and give him the full max as expected, his max deal will start at basically $25.25 million, and that would put the Nuggets at $131.12 million in salary.

The rookie salary scale has the 14th overall pick making $2.42 which will be the cap hold before he signs, however every team signs their picks to the max of 120% of the scale, putting the salary at $2.9 million. Added into the team cap that puts it at $134.02 million, meaning the Nuggets are already guaranteed to be paying $25.5 million in taxes prior to any other moves this summer making it a total payroll of $159.52 million.

If Wilson Chandler opts out that will save $12.8 million in cap space he has until June 26th to make his decision. That puts the cap at $121.31 million in cap space after resigning Jokic. That is basically 2 minimum or near minimum deals for anybody anybody else brought in.


If Darrel Arthur opts out that will save $7.46 million in cap space Arthur's is likely June 30th as is usually the standard. There is no way that I can see Arthur opting out so I will ignore that option.

Will Barton turned down 4 years $42 million last summer, and he just had his best year. At best I see Barton getting a deal starting at $12 million a year, or 4 yr $52 million if he stays with the team. That puts the team at $146 million or a full $20 million over the tax line. That puts us to $52.75 million in luxury tax alone.

Craig and Morris are both restricted free agents with qualifying offers being $1.5 million each, and I would think we can sign both for that but will not include them in calculations for now.

Next year we get some relief but it is not as much as some hope, as we are currently slated at $75.07 in salary. JOkic's extension will pay him $27.41 million, putting the salary at $102.48 million, plus year 2 of this year's rookie of $3.4 million putting us at $105.88 million and with next year's pick or est $2.5 million and we are at 103.38 million with a cap projected to be $108 and the tax line projected to be $132 million, add in Barton and you are looking at another $12.9 million or $120.9 million with an option on Millsap and Lyles being a restricted free agent. So basically we will likely have to choose between keeping Millsap and Lyles to avoid the tax, or move some long term salary if we do not have a big year this year.

We can discuss all the moves we want, but throughout the history of the Kroenke's ownership group the franchise has paid luxury tax 3 times, all for the Melo years, and all playoff teams. This year we are not a playoff team, and the tax has went up considerably since it was last paid in Denver. They however have given up picks (last one was Mcgee and a 1st to 76ers), traded back (such as the Gobert pick for cash and a 2nd), and gave up talent to clear cap room (Marcus Camby for nothing).

Given the salary cap situation, what do you expect to happen with summer? Not what do you want, only what you expect to happen.

I think the front office thought they would see more out of beasley and Juancho this year, and I don't think Beasley made the progress and I think Juancho being sick screwed up their plans. Juancho and Craig being lined up to start and get minutes would have put Chandler in a bad spot if he opted in, now it is unknown.

I fully expect that the front office will trade back to move off Faried, but do not think they bring back Barton without moving Plumlee as that kills the cap space for next year. I think that guys like Barton are replaceable pretty easily, guys like JR Smith, Lou Williams, or Jamal Crawford seem to always be available for a future 1sts. 6th men with bad defense relying on iso ball to score always seem to be around. So I think they try to find other ways to fill the gap.

They seem to like Plumlee and Lyles is obviously not ready to be the 3rd big right now, so I think they keep both this summer and look to move Plumlee for a expiring backup C at the deadline to be the 4th big an move Lyles into the 4th big role.

Chandler is out of team control, but I think if he opts in the Nuggets will try to trade him for a longer term like 2 years SF at a small contract that can be a place holder under the decide what to do with Juancho and Craig.

Based on the very nice OP and the question of what do I expect as opposed to what do I want ...

I expect the Nuggets will keep #14 and I truly expect them to draft a SF.
I expect they will not sign Barton simply because of the cap issues. They will believe it isn't time for exceeding the tax line.
I expect they will divest themselves of at least one contract, not sure which one. Best guess is Faried, second guess is Chandler (if he opts in).
I expect they will sign a veteran PG that I don't like.

We really don't know what the salary cap is going to be. I have a feeling it will go up some, how much is impossible to say.

I am still convinced Chandler gets a better deal than one year he has left with Nuggets but I seem to be in minority.

Stretching Arthur can save close to $5M next year, I think it makes sense.

It seems our front office cannot find a way to trade Faried and paying a heavy price of #14 makes no sense.

At the end of the day I think we will resign Barton and find a way to not be in the lux tax territory too deeply.

I am an optimist, I though Malone would get fired, so take my opinion with that caveat.

Acountant_Z wrote:We really don't know what the salary cap is going to be. I have a feeling it will go up some, how much is impossible to say.

I am still convinced Chandler gets a better deal than one year he has left with Nuggets but I seem to be in minority.

Stretching Arthur can save close to $5M next year, I think it makes sense.

It seems our front office cannot find a way to trade Faried and paying a heavy price of #14 makes no sense.

At the end of the day I think we will resign Barton and find a way to not be in the lux tax territory too deeply.

I am an optimist, I though Malone would get fired, so take my opinion with that caveat.

As I said in my post, last projection has the cap at $101 million, I agree it may go up some, but how much is the question. Reality is it is not going up enough to get us out of trouble.

I also think that Chandler can get the full MLE, and will opt out, but message board experts who just look at stats and don't know the story are always going to disagree.

I don't believe that Arthur is going to be stretched. The Kroenkes have always shown a willingness to give up assets to save money, and while stretching him would likely save tax money, giving up a future 2nd round pick or 2 to move him is much more likely given their history.

Barton I am not sure of, I have no faith in the team paying the luxury tax, they will have to move about $22 million in salary to keep him and stay under the tax.

NuggetsWY wrote:I expect the Nuggets will keep #14 and I truly expect them to draft a SF.

I can't remember any NBA SF player drafted in past 15 years which is not TOP3 draft pick with "starter like" numbers in his rookie year. Not even Kawhi or Giannis. If SF rookie is ready to contribute team since very first game such SF player will be taken as TOP3 on draft for sure (LeBron, Durant, Carmelo, Tatum), and especially no way he would survive until #14. For me, it is a very risky strategy for Nuggets to try to solve their urgent 2018-19 SF problem on draft, which can undermine whole season.

Remember what happened to Oklahoma team this season when A.Robertson was injured so they are forced to have very weak starter instead, so they started to struggle badly despite so respectful BIG-4 they have. Or even GSW GOAT team and their famous big-4 where you also can see a big difference when Iguodala is out. I think we are safe to say that Denver will play 2018-19 season with a BIG-4 (despite I guess that only Jokic will be an all-star next season), so it would be very irresponsible put your destiny in a hands of some still unknown rookie. For me, there are bigger chances that Juancho somehow miraculously becomes good SF player (forced transition from PF to SF spot which never worked well with Chandler), than to see #14 SF rookie with a notable starter-SF contribution.

Through all of this I hope the Front Office watches the finals and remembers that the plan isn't to win next year or the year after.

Putting yourself in another team's shoes, does it make sense to take on a contract just to move up 5 to 10 spots? This largely depends on the talent available at the time, so any deal that falls through would be on the clock draft night... and given what happened last year I think they'll just play it safe and draft a SF. At the deadline, I believe this year's 1st round pick was something they were unwilling to part with when unloading Faried, so I doubt they'd unload it completely now. It looks to be a deep year for SFs and I still have some faith in their scouting ability to pick the right one.

If by some miracle both Chandler and Arthur opt out it might give the FO confidence to chase Barton as a free agent. I'm not sure if Barton really wants to stay in Denver though, given how he turned down last year's offer. I suspect he's at odds with the idea of being a back-up even though he's been getting near-starter minutes, and Malone has not defined a clear role for him. I'm rather optimistic that despite our front office's efforts Barton we won't succeed in extending him.

I think the Front office needs to swallow their pride and admit their mistake on Plumlee this summer. Thinking longterm, they should prioritize moving that contract over Faried's. Though any hope that they actually will do this is not grounded in reality.

Reports indicate that the Nuggets never intended to hold on to Lyles long-term and that he was just supposed to be a cog in the Paul George / Kevin Love trade, so they might end up packaging him as a "sweetner" talent instead of the pick - when all is said and done he's a young versatile forward by both eye-test and boxscore. Juancho, Millsap, (Faried), (Chandler), (Arthur) and we dread Plumlee will still be taking minutes at the PF position, and if the front office is confident about Juancho as a talent they need to start giving the guy minutes to fully realize his potential.

The opening post posed it as Millsap vs Lyles to stay under the cap in 2020, but I think it will come down to who we retain between Lyles vs. Juancho this summer. Given what's happened to Juancho I think Lyles will definitely field more interest.

The other thing I don't think anyone's mentioned in this topic is the possibility of signing and trading Barton (with Washington?), but I don't know how the details would work.

U hova wrote:Reports indicate that the Nuggets never intended to hold on to Lyles long-term and that he was just supposed to be a cog in the Paul George / Kevin Love trade, so they might end up packaging him as a "sweetner" talent instead of the pick - when all is said and done he's a young versatile forward by both eye-test and boxscore. Juancho, Millsap, (Faried), (Chandler), (Arthur) and we dread Plumlee will still be taking minutes at the PF position, and if the front office is confident about Juancho as a talent they need to start giving the guy minutes to fully realize his potential.

Well, the Lyles trade was made after it was reported the Love trade was dead and it was also rumored how enamoured the Nuggets FO was with Lyles as well, so they went ahead and made the trade. He played well enough that I do think he 'sin the mix to eventually start at PF

U hova wrote:The opening post posed it as Millsap vs Lyles to stay under the cap in 2020, but I think it will come down to who we retain between Lyles vs. Juancho this summer. Given what's happened to Juancho I think Lyles will definitely field more interest.

I think the mono really hurt Juancho, this last rear was supposed to be a breakout for Juancho and even in SL he didn't establish himself, he then went on to the Spanish Nat'l team, did well but got sick w/o establishing himself. Lyles stepped up when given the opportunity, the FO (maybe not Malone) did take notice and that gives him an edge IMO. I hear a lot of love for Juancho but I am a bit disappointed myself. Yeah, I've seen the potential and am looking forward to seeing him this year, I'd love to just plan on the two being here for a long time.

U hova wrote: The other thing I don't think anyone's mentioned in this topic is the possibility of signing and trading Barton (with Washington?), but I don't know how the details would

I'm OK with this idea, I think Barton should have signed the $42M offer if he really wanted to be here, this team isn't going to fall off the map if Barton isn't here. A S&T would be best thing for us, I would rather stay as low as we can off the luxury tax, and Barton can be replaced he's not a part of the core IMO

Here's a really nice visual and write-up

https://earlybirdrights.com/2018/06/03/30-teams-in-30-days-denver-nuggets-offseason-preview/

Powder Blue wrote:Here's a really nice visual and write-up

https://earlybirdrights.com/2018/06/03/30-teams-in-30-days-denver-nuggets-offseason-preview/

Great write-up, but a bit dismal in the ole wallet area

skywalker33 wrote:

U hova wrote:Reports indicate that the Nuggets never intended to hold on to Lyles long-term and that he was just supposed to be a cog in the Paul George / Kevin Love trade, so they might end up packaging him as a "sweetner" talent instead of the pick - when all is said and done he's a young versatile forward by both eye-test and boxscore. Juancho, Millsap, (Faried), (Chandler), (Arthur) and we dread Plumlee will still be taking minutes at the PF position, and if the front office is confident about Juancho as a talent they need to start giving the guy minutes to fully realize his potential.

Well, the Lyles trade was made after it was reported the Love trade was dead and it was also rumored how enamoured the Nuggets FO was with Lyles as well, so they went ahead and made the trade. He played well enough that I do think he 'sin the mix to eventually start at PF

I agree that the team went through the deal even after the Love deal fell apart, but I take what they say publicly with a big grain of salt. I think if they were sold on Lyles that they would not have draft Lydon. That being said I think Lyles impressed last year, and I think the front office wants to keep him. I do think that the long term fit with Jokic is very questionable, and the cap issues for next year and his play next season will directly play into if they even keep him. Keeping Millsap and even giving Lyles a $10+ million a year contract is going to create a big issue in the payroll, unless they get creative this summer and find a way to move Plumlee or not sign Barton/ replacement for Barton this summer.

skywalker33 wrote:

U hova wrote:The opening post posed it as Millsap vs Lyles to stay under the cap in 2020, but I think it will come down to who we retain between Lyles vs. Juancho this summer. Given what's happened to Juancho I think Lyles will definitely field more interest.

I think the mono really hurt Juancho, this last rear was supposed to be a breakout for Juancho and even in SL he didn't establish himself, he then went on to the Spanish Nat'l team, did well but got sick w/o establishing himself. Lyles stepped up when given the opportunity, the FO (maybe not Malone) did take notice and that gives him an edge IMO. I hear a lot of love for Juancho but I am a bit disappointed myself. Yeah, I've seen the potential and am looking forward to seeing him this year, I'd love to just plan on the two being here for a long time.

If you remember Juancho struggled in the summer league as the coaching staff was asking him to create his own shots, and he just did not have the handles to take guys 1 on 1. That is what summer league was for. He played the entire time at Sf, and many times during Nuggets broadcasts they mentioned Juancho as a SF when talking about the issues there. I don't think the decision will come down between Juancho and Lyles in a long time.

The reason I said that it comes down to Millsap or Lyles next summer, is that Lyles is a free agent next summer, to bring in a new 6th man or resign Barton they will not be able to give Lyles the contract he is projecting to get and keep Millsap without dumping Plumlee and not bringing in more talent.

skywalker33 wrote:

U hova wrote: The other thing I don't think anyone's mentioned in this topic is the possibility of signing and trading Barton (with Washington?), but I don't know how the details would

I'm OK with this idea, I think Barton should have signed the $42M offer if he really wanted to be here, this team isn't going to fall off the map if Barton isn't here. A S&T would be best thing for us, I would rather stay as low as we can off the luxury tax, and Barton can be replaced he's not a part of the core IMO

Signing and trading Barton sounds good in theory, but that is going to bring back salary and is an unlikely option in my eyes. I personally think Barton is gone, but I do wonder if the front office is trying to cook up a scheme to keep him. I think he was an okay player, but his defense was questionable at best, and his reportedly wanting to be a starter kills his future for me.

I think the best explanation about that already famous 2017 draft-day trade with Utah is a plan to get OG Anunoby as #24, together with 2015 #12 pick Lyles which lose much of his value after the very disappointing sophomore season. But Toronto takes OG Anunoby as #23, and Donovan Mitchell which should not be available at #13 according to projections become sensational, so whole deal turns into an epic disaster for the Nuggets.

THE J0KER wrote:I think the best explanation about that already famous 2017 draft-day trade with Utah is a plan to get OG Anunoby as #24, together with 2015 #12 pick Lyles which lose much of his value after the very disappointing sophomore season. But Toronto takes OG Anunoby as #23, and Donovan Mitchell which should not be available at #13 according to projections become sensational, so whole deal turns into an epic disaster for the Nuggets.

Yeah, I think Lydon was that "OH CRAP" moment.

Found this interesting regarding the stretch provision

https://milehighsports.com/denvers-president-of-basketball-operations-tim-connelly-could-use-stretch-provision/

skywalker33 wrote:Found this interesting regarding the stretch provision

https://milehighsports.com/denvers-president-of-basketball-operations-tim-connelly-could-use-stretch-provision/

Good article - usually they fill these with a bunch of mumbo-jumbo.
I suspect they just might stretch Arthur but Faried probably has some trade value; it seems unlikely that they'll make a trade simply because they over-value their own players.

To me a clue as to what the Nuggets may do is tied to what the other teams can do. Nearly the entire league is above the cap or at cap. The real issue is luxury tax and at least the Nuggets sit with an average amount of space below tax and about in the middle range of salary with the rest of the teams.

It is no accident that the teams with the largest luxury tax bill are also in the finals. It's all about the money.

The bigger questions are which players are set to move on because of salary restrictions and unrestricted free agency like Paul George and Chris Paul. Some teams may not or can not pay the luxury tax and that may include both OKC and Houston. I don't think LeBron stays in Cleveland. That's a lot of talent (expensive talent) on the move.

Philly, LA and Dallas and a few others will likely be players and they have some room to add large contracts. Once the big contract free agents have landed somewhere, movement will become heavily restricted due to salary/luxury tax limitations. The rest of the league will be in a free for all as to the remaining free agents that they can afford. Where does that leave Denver, probably on the outside looking in (and waiting for the Jokic max).

TunaFish wrote:To me a clue as to what the Nuggets may do is tied to what the other teams can do. Nearly the entire league is above the cap or at cap. The real issue is luxury tax and at least the Nuggets sit with an average amount of space below tax and about in the middle range of salary with the rest of the teams.

It is no accident that the teams with the largest luxury tax bill are also in the finals. It's all about the money.

The bigger questions are which players are set to move on because of salary restrictions and unrestricted free agency like Paul George and Chris Paul. Some teams may not or can not pay the luxury tax and that may include both OKC and Houston. I don't think LeBron stays in Cleveland. That's a lot of talent (expensive talent) on the move.

Philly, LA and Dallas and a few others will likely be players and they have some room to add large contracts. Once the big contract free agents have landed somewhere, movement will become heavily restricted due to salary/luxury tax limitations. The rest of the league will be in a free for all as to the remaining free agents that they can afford. Where does that leave Denver, probably on the outside looking in (and waiting for the Jokic max).

Waiting on Jokic's max is a good way to piss off your franchise player while losing all control over the player.

The Rebel wrote:

TunaFish wrote:To me a clue as to what the Nuggets may do is tied to what the other teams can do. Nearly the entire league is above the cap or at cap. The real issue is luxury tax and at least the Nuggets sit with an average amount of space below tax and about in the middle range of salary with the rest of the teams.

It is no accident that the teams with the largest luxury tax bill are also in the finals. It's all about the money.

The bigger questions are which players are set to move on because of salary restrictions and unrestricted free agency like Paul George and Chris Paul. Some teams may not or can not pay the luxury tax and that may include both OKC and Houston. I don't think LeBron stays in Cleveland. That's a lot of talent (expensive talent) on the move.

Philly, LA and Dallas and a few others will likely be players and they have some room to add large contracts. Once the big contract free agents have landed somewhere, movement will become heavily restricted due to salary/luxury tax limitations. The rest of the league will be in a free for all as to the remaining free agents that they can afford. Where does that leave Denver, probably on the outside looking in (and waiting for the Jokic max).

Waiting on Jokic's max is a good way to piss off your franchise player while losing all control over the player.

Best player should never be left with any doubt that they are going to get the max allowable and if a team must delay on that due to signing FAs and such; then they should at least communicate all of it with their best player. That's what the best teams do and frequently they consult with best players regarding future players (or so I've been told, no direct knowledge).

There is two other options that I never mentioned in my op and that I consider a long shot but is certainly possible.

With Chandler, Faried, and Arthur's expiring contracts they can be traded for $42.54 million in contracts coming back, add in Plumlee and that number jumps to $58.69 million in salaries coming back. That can be a lot of value in a deal for a star where a team wants to add bad salary to their star and save money while getting future picks and a couple of guys like Beasley and/or Lyles.

Or they can use those guys and picks/future picks young players to open up cap room, just losing Plumlee, Faried, Chandler, and arthur opens up what is projected to be about $41 million in cap space. Assuming this year's 1st is traded and you decline the option on Jokic creating a cap hold of right about $2 million, and Barton's cap hold of about $5.3 million, that leaves just under a full max deal available to a free agent. If you add Beasley or Lyles going out as well, than you are at $35.45 million in cap space. Leaving you just over the amount needed for a full 10 year max deal.

Of course you then have to resign Jokic to a max deal, give Barton a deal starting at $12 million, and have the room MLE for a free agent PG, and you are looking at being $20 million into the tax, so I would deem it unlikely, but it is possible.