2018-19 Western Conference Playoff Race

[NuggetsWY]

I'd love it, but I'm not convinced we'll finish #2. It's early in the season but I'm also not convinced #3-#7 will all make the playoffs. I wonder how many will fall out of the playoffs and how soon.

#3 San Antonio
#4 Memphis
#5 Portland
#6 Sacramento
#7 LAC

I'm also not convinced any of the following will finish as low as they are right now:

#8 OKC
#10 Utah
#11 New Orleans
#12 Houston

[skywalker33]

Another good test tonight, while BOS has had some glitches in their offense, their defense is still their forte. Kyrie has started to show life offensively so Murray had better be on his toes. If I didn't have to work I'd be there at this game yelling my lungs out !

[NuggetsWY]

Another good test tonight, while BOS has had some glitches in their offense, their defense is still their forte. Kyrie has started to show life offensively so Murray had better be on his toes. If I didn't have to work I'd be there at this game yelling my lungs out !

It will certainly be a good test of our offense. If Jokic doesn't take more shots, I doubt we win. He can make a difference. As I keep saying, Jokic shooting makes it easier for Jokic to pass and Jokic passing makes it easier for Jokic to shoot - the more Jokic shoots and passes, the better the Nuggets play.

[Powder Blue]

Another good test tonight, while BOS has had some glitches in their offense, their defense is still their forte. Kyrie has started to show life offensively so Murray had better be on his toes. If I didn't have to work I'd be there at this game yelling my lungs out !

It will certainly be a good test of our offense. If Jokic doesn't take more shots, I doubt we win. He can make a difference. As I keep saying, Jokic shooting makes it easier for Jokic to pass and Jokic passing makes it easier for Jokic to shoot - the more Jokic shoots and passes, the better the Nuggets play.

Jokic took 3 shots and we won . Foul trouble cut his minutes and it seemed everyone deferred to Murray, BOS also seemed to have a good game plan for Jokic.

[THE J0KER]

Denver is 3rd best team last season at home but seems we are even better this season beating already 3 notable opponents GSW, BOS, and UTA, with a perfect 6-0 start in Denver. What we need to prove now is that we are a different team on the road this season compared to the pathetic 2017-18 away record. Our current record is 3-1 on the road, but that lose we choked 8+ lead in last 6 minutes, and one win is a lucky OT win vs weak Chicago. Next Denver game is in Memphis vs near playoff-good Grizzlies, and Nuggets should prove that the team improved its level of road games.

Talking about the rest of the West, all big teams with terrible start fight-back lately. So Houston is in 3 games winning strike on the road, Lakers much improved after a 0-4 start, and Oklahoma won 5th straight game tonight, but also lose Westbrook tonight for a couple of the weeks. Portland and Spurs are better than expected but on the other hand, Utah (4 straight losses), Pelicans (6 loses in the row) very struggling, and I'm not sure to consider Minnesota as PO contender anymore or downgrade them into next quality level with Clippers and Memphis.

[NuggetsWY]

I was even more impressed by the win over Boston than beating the Warriors.

[THE J0KER]

Two painful unnecessary loses vs lottery teams underdogs Memphis and Brooklyn, and Denver no more watching playoff race from a secure long distance. Next two opponents are really tough, Milwaukee and Houston, but how are we playing vs underdogs, we should be more afraid of 3rd one, Atlanta?

On wild West Sacramento, Memphis and Clippers still refuse to give up, but the good news is that Minnesota seems dead already, and Houston #2 place is far from secure. So, basically, instead of expected #3-#10 battle, we will have more likely a #2-#9 race on the West, with DEN HOU OKC UTA POR LAL SAS NOP involved.

[THE J0KER]

Minnesota is still not done yet with serious playoff hopes!

They didn't trade Butler for assets and to get rid of Dieng bad contract as expected but for two proven starter level players Saric and Covington. If Wiggins can play SG with Rose holds current health and playing level, Wolves is playoff level team even for Western standards. But they have an awful start and needs some extra time to adjust each other and to new roles, so #9-#10 scenario still seems most realistic.

Teague-Wiggins-Covington-Saric-Towns with strong bench lead by Rose and Gibson are a respectable team if stays healthy.

[THE J0KER]

Very bad day for Denver. Out of 4 clashes between Western PO contenders vs teams from East, only Nuggets lose tonight (vs Bucks). Portland beat Boston, Houston beat Indiana, Lakers also won.


Our next opponent is Houston, the team Denver didn't beat since 2015 (7 straight losses).

[THE J0KER]

Out of 7 games last night where at least one team is from the West, in 6 won team which we don't like to win, including two upset wins (Pelicans in Toronto and Clippers vs Golden State)

The only "good" result was Kings win vs Spurs.

If we lose tonight fourth game in the row (which never happens last season), it will be the perfect moment to push the panic button.

[NuggetsWY]

Out of 7 games last night where at least one team is from the West, in 6 won team which we don't like to win, including two upset wins (Pelicans in Toronto and Clippers vs Golden State)

The only "good" result was Kings win vs Spurs.

If we lose tonight fourth game in the row (which never happens last season), it will be the perfect moment to push the panic button.

or maybe an apathy button

[U hova]

well... at least we're not the pelicans.

[skywalker33]

With 4 straight losses, 3 at home, wonder if we're still looked upon as a playoff lock ??

[THE J0KER]

If Clippers, Memphis, Sacramento, and Dallas continues to fight so bravely every night, with Phoenix stays the only tanker on the whole West, 45 wins should be enough this season for a playoff.

Actually, many started to count Clippers now as serious playoff contenders. I doubt in it, but when they are healthy, they are the deepest team in the league, with the best bench lead by Lou W. and improved Harrel, and their starting lineup is not that bad as it seems before start of the season with Tobias Harris playing career-best season, Galo stays healthy, and rookie point guard SGA continues to show that he is a real deal. Also, if Derick Rose continues to play on the current level, Minnesota is now the very deep team for a change, Butler will be missed of course, but with Rose-Saris bench and the addition of new starting SF Covington, Wolves are not just a starting lineup, but the legit 7-man rotation roster. Memphis is dangerous because Gasol and Conley know this is maybe the last season they both can play on so high level and their rookie JJJ so far proves he is worthy last season tank. Kings look too good to be true so far this season, for real PO chances on stacked West they need another star-level frontcourt player, and exactly the same we can say about Dallas Mavericks. But this two young teams (+Suns) obviously will be a threat on the West more soon that it seems just a month ago.



In the last 4 games, Denver has one "must win" game (BKN), one "should win" (@MEM), and b2b tough home "win one of two" games (MIL HOU), but instead winning about three out of these 4 games, Nuggets lose all 4. That is why tonight game vs Atlanta is literally "must win", because, after friendly schedule, in the beginning, we have a hell of the schedule since 2nd week in November until the first week of December, and we started it on the terrible way, so most realistic projection for this 13 games now seems 4-9 if not 3-10.

[THE J0KER]

Denver schedule until the end of this month is like a horror movie, but our team is a way too good to be written off from any of these games, and this is a true test to see how we improved mentally for road games after so ugly last season where we underperformed badly away from home, except at the very last part of the last season. BTW, if you take look on the CBS regular season projections, they just dumped Nuggets from playoff and TOP8, but I wouldn't panic, and their over 80% odds given for the Clippers to reach playoff are almost ridiculous.

Out of today results interesting for WC PO race, the only good news is that Utah loses another game. Denver next opponent New Orleans have the awful 20-39 start of the game vs Knicks underdog, but they still won that game with a first lead on the game just about 2 minutes before the end. Minnesota proves once again that they are now the more competitive team after Butler trade because they obviously repaired their team chemistry, and the team is much deeper this year, it is not just Covington and Saric, but also Derick Rose, compared to the last season. Wolves beat today Portland surprisingly easy. And another team from West which deserved to be mentioned in today's report are Grizzlies. After today win they are with an amazing 9-5 record which nobody expected, and it includes some wins vs elite opponents such as DEN MIL PHI UTAx2. With no big signs of Gasol and Conley declining, and #4 pick rookie J.Jackson playing very well since the very first game, they are not worse than Clippers for sure, nor Memphis playoff team from the 2016-17 season, so the only reason if they do not reach the playoff this season is because of West are so stacked this season.

[NuggetsWY]

Spoiler:

Denver schedule until the end of this month is like a horror movie, but our team is a way too good to be written off from any of these games, and this is a true test to see how we improved mentally for road games after so ugly last season where we underperformed badly away from home, except at the very last part of the last season. BTW, if you take look on the CBS regular season projections, they just dumped Nuggets from playoff and TOP8, but I wouldn't panic, and their over 80% odds given for the Clippers to reach playoff are almost ridiculous.

Out of today results interesting for WC PO race, the only good news is that Utah loses another game. Denver next opponent New Orleans have the awful 20-39 start of the game vs Knicks underdog, but they still won that game with a first lead on the game just about 2 minutes before the end. Minnesota proves once again that they are now the more competitive team after Butler trade because they obviously repaired their team chemistry, and the team is much deeper this year, it is not just Covington and Saric, but also Derick Rose, compared to the last season. Wolves beat today Portland surprisingly easy. And another team from West which deserved to be mentioned in today's report are Grizzlies. After today win they are with an amazing 9-5 record which nobody expected, and it includes some wins vs elite opponents such as DEN MIL PHI UTAx2. With no big signs of Gasol and Conley declining, and #4 pick rookie J.Jackson playing very well since the very first game, they are not worse than Clippers for sure, nor Memphis playoff team from the 2016-17 season, so the only reason if they do not reach the playoff this season is because of West are so stacked this season.

The difference between 538 & CBS is rather extreme.

[THE J0KER]

The difference between 538 & CBS is rather extreme.

I think in both cases these projections are not based on some experts daily estimations, but it is calculated by some computer programs. And software is obviously pretty different in this two cases, they (I guess) use different individual ratings for players and calculate the impact of overall record and last 5 games on upcoming record on the different way. I guess more and more season goes on, projections will be more similar. There is another respectable site which makes this kind of daily projections, https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.html but their software is almost totally based on current standings that I will ignore it until end of 2018, despite they currently give best 98% chances to Nuggets. Here are current basketball-reference playoff chances in percentages for Western Conference teams:

99.20% Golden State Warriors
99.30% Portland Trail Blazers
98.20% Denver Nuggets
98.20% Los Angeles Clippers
86.90% Oklahoma City Thunder
64.70% New Orleans Pelicans
60.10% Los Angeles Lakers
58.00% Memphis Grizzlies
43.90% Houston Rockets
29.10% Utah Jazz
25.30% Sacramento Kings
18.80% San Antonio Spurs
12.30% Minnesota Timberwolves
5.90% Dallas Mavericks
0.00% Phoenix Suns

Random high school student which intensively follows NBA will give you more realistic odds than this.

[NuggetsWY]

The difference between 538 & CBS is rather extreme.

I think in both cases these projections are not based on some experts daily estimations, but it is calculated by some computer programs. And software is obviously pretty different in this two cases, they (I guess) use different individual ratings for players and calculate the impact of overall record and last 5 games on upcoming record on the different way. I guess more and more season goes on, projections will be more similar. There is another respectable site which makes this kind of daily projections, https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.html but their software is almost totally based on current standings that I will ignore it until end of 2018, despite they currently give best 98% chances to Nuggets. Here are current basketball-reference playoff chances in percentages for Western Conference teams:

99.20% Golden State Warriors
99.30% Portland Trail Blazers
98.20% Denver Nuggets
98.20% Los Angeles Clippers
86.90% Oklahoma City Thunder
64.70% New Orleans Pelicans
60.10% Los Angeles Lakers
58.00% Memphis Grizzlies
43.90% Houston Rockets
29.10% Utah Jazz
25.30% Sacramento Kings
18.80% San Antonio Spurs
12.30% Minnesota Timberwolves
5.90% Dallas Mavericks
0.00% Phoenix Suns

Random high school student which intensively follows NBA will give you more realistic odds than this.

Well, a statistician can make statistics say anything

[THE J0KER]

As expected, Clippers and Grizzlies leading on stacked West after opening 5 weeks.

Oh, wait...

[skywalker33]

The difference between 538 & CBS is rather extreme.

I think in both cases these projections are not based on some experts daily estimations, but it is calculated by some computer programs. And software is obviously pretty different in this two cases, they (I guess) use different individual ratings for players and calculate the impact of overall record and last 5 games on upcoming record on the different way. I guess more and more season goes on, projections will be more similar. There is another respectable site which makes this kind of daily projections, https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.html but their software is almost totally based on current standings that I will ignore it until end of 2018, despite they currently give best 98% chances to Nuggets. Here are current basketball-reference playoff chances in percentages for Western Conference teams:

99.20% Golden State Warriors
99.30% Portland Trail Blazers
98.20% Denver Nuggets
98.20% Los Angeles Clippers
86.90% Oklahoma City Thunder
64.70% New Orleans Pelicans
60.10% Los Angeles Lakers
58.00% Memphis Grizzlies
43.90% Houston Rockets
29.10% Utah Jazz
25.30% Sacramento Kings
18.80% San Antonio Spurs
12.30% Minnesota Timberwolves
5.90% Dallas Mavericks
0.00% Phoenix Suns

Random high school student which intensively follows NBA will give you more realistic odds than this.

Well, a statistician can make statistics say anything

Now that sounds like something I'd say