2018-19 Western Conference Playoff Race

Manolito · Post #381 » by **Manolito** » Sun Apr 7, 2019 9:00 pm

After huge mistake vs Wizards, Denver only option to finish 2nd depends on OKC.

Basically what The Joker explained. If OKC lose to Rockets, Spurs will be 6th seed because they are finishing 48-34.

I am sure despite being swept by Denver, they prefer much more playing against us than GSW or HOU. Their only chance to skip both teams ist beating HOU, losing last game @MIL and hope LAC does not win both GSW & UTA (very unlikely).

If OKC lose to Rockets, they will play first round vs HOU or GSW, that means early exit.

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Sgt Major · Post #382 » by **Sgt Major** » Sun Apr 7, 2019 9:28 pm

NuggetsWY wrote:.

Does anyone know if Millsap, Jokic and Murray are being allowed to stay home instead of traveling? That would make the rest even more valuable. But that's just my opinion.

They're with the team, I saw photos on the official Nuggets Twitter.

Post #383 » by **THE J0KER** » Mon Apr 8, 2019 12:24 am

THE J0KER wrote:
NuggetsWY wrote:Okay, now I'm going to argue against what I just posted. Portland can knock Houston out of the number 3 seed. Sorry Portland beats us, and we win our last two games, we're still okay. Maybe.

Does anyone know if Millsap, Jokic and Murray are being allowed to stay home instead of traveling? That would make the rest even more valuable. But that's just my opinion.

"RESTING STARS" is just perfect alibi for what we doing. Despite it is back-to-back games, of course, that Jokic and Millsap will play vs Utah and Minnesota, Murray too if his ankle is OK. Our risky calculations:

If we gifted wins to Portland, they will beat Lakers in LA (without LBJ, Kuzma, Ingram, Ball) and Sacramento at home, and overtake Houston after Rockets losing their last game in Oklahoma. We believe that OKC will give their best at home to beat Houston because an eventual loss will probably send them to GSW as #8 seed. OKC needs to survive @MIN game today and to hope that Bucks will rest their stars in last game after securing NBA#1. Paradoxically, if we lose today vs Portland, our chances to beat Utah in Tuesday will grow, not because of we *rested* biggest stars, but because after Portland eventual today win Jazz will lose chances for #4 seed, so maybe they will rest Mitchell or Gobert vs Nuggets (or both!).

At least "The Genius Plan" didn't collapse already on the first step, OKC somehow beat Minnesota which leads after 3rd quarter

. They will definitely die-hard try on the home court to beat Houston and escape GSW in the 1st round!

For those who still believe that our three starters not *resting* today to help Blazers to overtake Rockets but really for rest purposes, just look at Eastern Conference TOP4 teams where 1234 order is already known, but Giannis, Kawhi, and Irving still played. But in Tuesday-Wednesday b2b last two games of the regular season they all three will miss at least one game, unlike any of our starters, because of we fighting fiercely for 2nd seed. Actually, in a perfect case, if OKC beats Houston and we beat Utah, we can rest our players last day vs Minnesota.

Manolito wrote:Basically what The Joker explained. If OKC lose to Rockets, Spurs will be 6th seed because they are finishing 48-34.

Not necessarily! If OKC beats HOU, there are big chances Bucks are going to rest Giannis in the last regular season game, or not playing that game 100% competitive, which opens chances for OKC to beat them and finish #6 with 49-33 and meet #3 injured Portland, which would be a perfect scenario for Oklahoma (weakest opponent in the first round, and no GSW/HOU in 2nd round!). That is why we should expect from OKC to play on the max on Tuesday. But of course, Houston will also give their best to try to escape GSW in the 2nd round, or even better, to reach WC#2 seed on the last moment.

Post #384 » by **THE J0KER** » Mon Apr 8, 2019 6:35 am

Considering all calculations, I think our "Houstbusters" plan is actually better than I thought on the first sight.

Utah is now motivated to lose both games until the end (aka to rest best players), so they will stay #5 WC seed anyway, except in the case of OKC winning them both games in which case Utah with both loses will drop to #6 seed. But in that case, it is better for Jazz to be #6 seed than #5 because with OKC beating Houston Portland is going to be #3 seed most probably.

The best case scenario on Tuesday is if OKC beat HOU and we beat UTA, so we can rest players last day of the regular season (Wednesday) and stay #2 seed. And if POR beat LAL too, it would be a perfect Tuesday.

The worst case scenario is if we lose to Utah, and HOU beat OKC, so we will lose our WC#2 seed.

SkillzFromThe6 · Post #385 » by **SkillzFromThe6** » Mon Apr 8, 2019 11:21 pm

Read on Twitter

Post #386 » by **THE J0KER** » Tue Apr 9, 2019 1:39 am

skywalker33 · Post #387 » by **skywalker33** » Tue Apr 9, 2019 3:01 pm

Two biggest games of the season tonight, we play @ UTH and HOU plays @ OKC. GO Nuggets, GO Thunder (man was that hard to post)

total1096 · Post #388 » by **total1096** » Tue Apr 9, 2019 4:09 pm

Losing that game to Portland has put the Nuggets in real danger of losing that #2 seed. Big night tonight.

skywalker33 · Post #389 » by **skywalker33** » Tue Apr 9, 2019 5:05 pm

total1096 wrote:Losing that game to Portland has put the Nuggets in real danger of losing that #2 seed. Big night tonight.

A calculated risk that may come back to haunt them....or help eliminate one of their two biggest nightmares.

Post #390 » by **NuggetsWY** » Tue Apr 9, 2019 8:23 pm

skywalker33 wrote:
total1096 wrote:Losing that game to Portland has put the Nuggets in real danger of losing that #2 seed. Big night tonight.

A calculated risk that may come back to haunt them....or help eliminate one of their two biggest nightmares.

Well, it shows the Nuggets' ownership/management/coaches believe the Nuggets can win their last two games and maintain that 2nd seed. Clearly homecourt advantage against Houston would be important - more important than any other western team except Golden State in my opinion.

I'll agree that tonight's game is the greater challenge and fairly important.

Post #391 » by **THE J0KER** » Wed Apr 10, 2019 1:44 am

If Denver, Oklahoma, and Portland win today:

If Denver and Oklahoma win but Portland lose:

If Denver loses, but Houston loses too, and Portland wins:

If Denver, Houston, and Portland all three wins or all three lose:

If Denver loses and Houston wins:

If Denver and Houston win (or both lose), but Denver loses tomorrow vs Minnesota:

U hova · Post #392 » by **U hova** » Wed Apr 10, 2019 3:36 am

man i really do not like Malone's decision.

skywalker33 · Post #393 » by **skywalker33** » Wed Apr 10, 2019 3:47 am

Might as well sit them again, rest seems "important"

TunaFish · Post #394 » by **TunaFish** » Wed Apr 10, 2019 4:08 am

Houston loses to OKC! Wow!

Post #395 » by **THE J0KER** » Wed Apr 10, 2019 4:15 am

We still need Portland to win too (Lakers lead 74-73 before the start of 4th quarter), for a completely happy end (and tomorrow Nuggets to beat Minnesota).

Post #396 » by **THE J0KER** » Wed Apr 10, 2019 4:50 am

Never in doubt :wink:

skywalker33 · Post #397 » by **skywalker33** » Wed Apr 10, 2019 4:55 am

THE J0KER wrote:If Denver loses, but Houston loses too, and Portland wins:

DOH!!!!!!! Why does it feel like we're backing into the playoffs ???

gh123 · Post #398 » by **gh123** » Wed Apr 10, 2019 5:06 am

So are you guys down to 3rd if you lose next one?

Post #399 » by **THE J0KER** » Wed Apr 10, 2019 5:10 am

gh123 wrote:So are you guys down to 3rd if you lose next one?

YEP

THE J0KER wrote:If Denver and Houston win (or both lose), but Denver loses tomorrow vs Minnesota:

Manolito · Post #400 » by **Manolito** » Wed Apr 10, 2019 5:13 am

Towns is not playing tomorrow.

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