skywalker33 wrote:The Rebel wrote:Jokic, Murray, and Harris will be eating up 70% of the salary cap long term. Add in Barton and you are at 85% of the cap. Meaning if you bring back Lyles on anything more than a 1 year deal than the most you will have to spend on a starting quality forward is going to be the MLE in 2 years and you will likely be in the tax and paying the taxpayer MLE. You are also going to have to find a backup Center as well, as Plumlee will expire.
Lyles is a very good scorer, if his defense can improve and he can play throughout the season at both forward spots like he has this preseason he would work off the bench. He may be worth keeping. However if he shows he can only play PF and you do not see him as the long term starter, than it is better to trade him and get something worthwhile so that you can find a better long term fit with your starters.
70% seems like a bit of an exageration for just Jokic ($27M), Murray (est $20M) and Harris ($17M) is $64M and the cap is estimated at $109M is about 58% and that doesn't encompass the luxury cap apron. Also that Murray estimate won't come into reality until 2020 when the cap is estimated at $118M. Even then, both Plumlee and Millsap (should he play out his contract) should come off the bench opening up $45M. A good capologist should be able to make it work
I think you are dramatically underrating Murray's next contract, if he continues at even close to the progression he showed last year than I do not see anyway he signs an extension for less than his full max deal of 25% of the cap or $29.5 million his 1st year. You are also ignoring the incentives in Harris's deal, which can easily put his contract to $21 million per year as soon as this year and will likely be $22 million the following year. Jokic will be at $27.5 million next season as well, the following year he will be at $29.5. So no it is no exaggeration that 2 years from today they are taking up more than 70% of the cap if the cap meets projections they are at 68.7% of the cap, and the cap has not met projections in 2 of the last 3 years. Add in the current guaranteed deals of $20.5 million and the cap holds for 4 players and our 1st round pick at $5.7 million or so, and you are at $106.2 million with Plumlee, Millsap, Juancho, Beasley, Lyles, Craig, Thomas, and the 2 way contracts all expiring between then and now.
Meaning that your lineup is
Murray/ Morris
Harris/Barton
Porter JR
Vanderbuilt
Jokic
With $12 million or only $2.5 million more than the MLE to get a starting PF, backup C, and backup SF with no moves between now and then.
Obviously if Porter JR, Welsh, and Vanderbuilt work out than we are fine, but reality is that 2 are major injury risks and the other a late 2nd round pick. Last year good starting PFs all seemed to sign well above MLE deals, with Favors signing for $16 million a year. Taj Gibson signed for $14 million per a year ago, and Julius Randle sign for $8.8 million after having his 1st good year. You are not getting a starting quality PF for less than the MLE, which will be $9.5 million in 2 years.
skywalker33 wrote:I can see the concern, but it's not like KSE is hurting for money, especially if we're getting into the playoffs. I really can't see Lyles getting more than $8-10M per year as a RFA, which seems reasonable for the versatility and consistency he appears to be maturing into. And from what I've seen, his defense is getting better, not Millsap good but better and improving at 23yo. They are also a lot of competition for FA money, unless Lyles avgs 15+/9+ he'll be in our scope, we do value loyalty
Next year there will be 6 times more available cap space than this year, which will put it near the 2016 cap space that so many had. Even if Lyles only maintains the stats and advanced stats that he had last year for this season he will get at least the MLE. Reality is if he has improved he will get a $15 million per year deal from someone as they will have to spend the cap space.
Next summer is also the only year we are likely to have the cap space to sign a starting quality PF before Murray gets his extension. IF we opt out of Millsap's deal and renounce Lyles we have $15 million or so in cap space, if we keep Lyles than we will have the MLE.
Last year Jerami Grant and Randle signed for basically MLE money, next summer that is likely not going to get even that quality of player.
Fact of the matter is that you cannot tie up more than MLE money to a backup single position player if you want a great team. Lyles is not a fit with the starters in my eyes, and he has not shown the positional ability to play 2 positions in meaningful minutes. Meaning you are tying up your 1 chance to add proven starting level talent to the team so that you can pay a backup PF above MLE money for his 15-20 minutes per night.
It is not about how much money the Kroenkes have, it is about building the roster so that you can make moves in the future and fill holes when needed while not burying yourself in luxury tax killing all flexibility for a backup 1 position player.