Is THIS our Year ??

[skywalker33]

Being one of the biggest homers on this site, it will probably shock most of you when I tell you it is NOT our year. Not our year to win it all but it will be our year to get to the playoffs. It CAN be our year to get to the 2nd round of the playoffs and it MIGHT be our year to get to the WCF....but that's a big IF IMO. As was pointed out by The Rebel, our forwards are not championship caliber, but we may be able to do something there. I do carry hope that some of our forwards can take a step up, two in particular being Michael Porter Jr and Jarred Vanderbilt. Both look to me have All-Star potential, MPj even more but they won't make any significant contributions THIS year.

I also still like the potential of Juancho as a backup, feel like he just needs to build up his strength and stamina, more importantly he needs to rebuild his confidence back up. He has the talent but last year's illness took him off track.

That leaves us with Paul Millsap and Will Barton. Both are valuable players and have helped us get to where we are today. If PM was 5 years younger we be set but unfortunately he's not. I do feel he has enough years to help him prepare Vanderbilt to take over for him, for that reason we need to keep him around for 1-2 more years. I can see restructuring his deal to a 1/1TO $30M deal and offer him a player/coach option where I think he'll end up anyway. Which leads us back to Barton. Thrill is a spark plug for the offense yet a ground for the defense. He has taken on a leadership role with his playmaking, but he often turns that into a hero act that detracts from the team play that makes us successful. Is he a good player ?? For the most part I'd say he has some value, he's one of our only ISO players (and yes, I believe every team need some sort of ISO player). It's his HERO-ball that drives many of os crazy. I think we have to trade him as it would also give us some more salary cap freedom to sign Beasley, Murray and Juancho. If we can do it for just a draft pick even better IMO.

[SkillzFromThe6]

I only expect a 1st round win. Making Conference Finals would be a big time WOW to me.

[Lala870]

It comes down to seeding... I doubt nuggets finish as the 1 seed meaning good chance nuggets play utah or someone like houston in the first round. If the nuggets had a fully healthy roster including MPJ I could see them winning but i don't think its gonna happen this year.

[FilNugsFan]

We'll make the playoffs for sure, but we ain't winning it all simply because KD is still with GSW. I'm also not convinced that this is our year due to the fact that we are still losing games badly against inferior teams.

Next season our young core will grow and mature further. A healthy MPJ and Vanderbilt sure is very promising. And if KD leaves, I think we'll have a good shot against GSW.

[skywalker33]

We'll make the playoffs for sure, but we ain't winning it all simply because KD is still with GSW. I'm also not convinced that this is our year due to the fact that we are still losing games badly against inferior teams.

Next season our young core will grow and mature further. A healthy MPJ and Vanderbilt sure is very promising. And if KD leaves, I think we'll have a good shot against GSW.

Another great point for next year. That said, there are other teams that continue to rise (DAL, PHX) so we need to take advantage soon !

[NuggetsWY]

Being one of the biggest homers on this site, it will probably shock most of you when I tell you it is NOT our year. Not our year to win it all but it will be our year to get to the playoffs. It CAN be our year to get to the 2nd round of the playoffs and it MIGHT be our year to get to the WCF....but that's a big IF IMO. As was pointed out by The Rebel, our forwards are not championship caliber, but we may be able to do something there. I do carry hope that some of our forwards can take a step up, two in particular being Michael Porter Jr and Jarred Vanderbilt. Both look to me have All-Star potential, MPj even more but they won't make any significant contributions THIS year.

I'm much bigger than you! But I won't debate the level of fanaticism. I do agree we should be in the playoffs (just can't see that big of a collapse). As was pointed out, we should be seeded fairly high and we've even proven we can beat Houston. It seems likely we can win a series and have a serious shot at winning a second series.

I also still like the potential of Juancho as a backup, feel like he just needs to build up his strength and stamina, more importantly he needs to rebuild his confidence back up. He has the talent but last year's illness took him off track.

That leaves us with Paul Millsap and Will Barton. Both are valuable players and have helped us get to where we are today. If PM was 5 years younger we be set but unfortunately he's not. I do feel he has enough years to help him prepare Vanderbilt to take over for him, for that reason we need to keep him around for 1-2 more years. I can see restructuring his deal to a 1/1TO $30M deal and offer him a player/coach option where I think he'll end up anyway. Which leads us back to Barton. Thrill is a spark plug for the offense yet a ground for the defense. He has taken on a leadership role with his playmaking, but he often turns that into a hero act that detracts from the team play that makes us successful. Is he a good player ?? For the most part I'd say he has some value, he's one of our only ISO players (and yes, I believe every team need some sort of ISO player). It's his HERO-ball that drives many of os crazy. I think we have to trade him as it would also give us some more salary cap freedom to sign Beasley, Murray and Juancho. If we can do it for just a draft pick even better IMO.

I'm okay with one more year of Millsap as a starter and I also like Hernangomez as a backup forward. Barton would make a nice bench player also. He can get hot fast but I don't like his defense or his handles. Lyles is still a maybe. I like him one game and not the next. Lydon looks like a maybe. Craig's okay. I would prefer to see Plumlee only when Jokic is on the bench; but I'm still a fan of keeping him on the team.

Our best future forwards IMO are Porter, Vanderbilt, Cancar.

I absolutely love our guard corp and don't even mind three guards for stretches. Harris & Beasley both play "bigger" than their actual size when they are on defense and other teams' forwards have trouble matching up with them.

[The Rebel]

This is not our year, even if we had good starting forwards this would not be our year. We need to see which young guys can handle the playoffs and which ones are not ready. Then we can make decisions on all of them.

Do not get me wrong I like Millsap, but I have been a sports fan for too damn long. Guys like Millsap are too smart to lose effectiveness. They find ways to adjust their games and style to remain effective. What happens instead is that the injuries start pilling up. He has always been healthy until the last couple of years and while they are fluke injuries the are happening more often and taking longer to heal. Next year he will likely miss another 20 or 30 games with injuries, then the following it will be more. Until he retires. I honestly don't want to watch it, but know it is coming.

If we could keep Millsap for the next couple of years and have him limited to 20 mpg than I would be fine with it, but we still need another pf/c prospect and for Vanderbilt to take those minutes. Let those 2 compete for the other 28 minutes and we are good.

The real issue to me is Barton. I have never been a fan of the fit and i really am less of one now. He just is not good at anything we need and worse when he gets the ball our offense just stops. We need to trade him and Juancho either needs to earn that job by the end of the season or we need to find a better 3 and D type SF. That with Beasley/ Harris/ Juancho/ Morris/ Vanderbilt all step up in the playoffs or at least do not disappear than I think we are a decent SF and backup PF/C away from a championship level team.

[torotoe]

Barton gets a lot of flak here. He’s one of our best PnR/handoff players. A good shooter. Good rebounder. Good handle, good passing. He’s big enough to play the three, which Gary/Malik aren’t ideal for. He’s got all-around skill that allows the nuggets to play potent offense. He is that third handoff threat that we need. And when the play breaks down, he’s one of our better iso options.

Granted, his last few games have been bad. He’s always been a streaky player, and this year has been a bit of a struggle. When he’s bad, he’s bad. And his defense is not great. He’s not without warts, but he’s a damn good player.

For all the “hero ball” complaints, I don’t think people are factoring in the context. Barton’s hero ball was the main reason the bench was not terrible last year. And he was actually pretty consistent. I believe Barton can be a valuable player on this squad, and I’m excited to see the thrill in the playoffs. The key is putting him in a role where he doesn’t have to play hero ball, but instead looks for great team offense.

[NuggetsWY]

Spoiler:

Barton gets a lot of flak here. He’s one of our best PnR/handoff players. A good shooter. Good rebounder. Good handle, good passing. He’s big enough to play the three, which Gary/Malik aren’t ideal for. He’s got all-around skill that allows the nuggets to play potent offense. He is that third handoff threat that we need. And when the play breaks down, he’s one of our better iso options.

Granted, his last few games have been bad. He’s always been a streaky player, and this year has been a bit of a struggle. When he’s bad, he’s bad. And his defense is not great. He’s not without warts, but he’s a damn good player.

For all the “hero ball” complaints, I don’t think people are factoring in the context. Barton’s hero ball was the main reason the bench was not terrible last year. And he was actually pretty consistent. I believe Barton can be a valuable player on this squad, and I’m excited to see the thrill in the playoffs. The key is putting him in a role where he doesn’t have to play hero ball, but instead looks for great team offense.

I'll agree with your statement regarding Barton & bench & last year; but this is a different team and Barton is now a starter. Playing with Jokic requires a different approach than what he was asked to do last year.

I've even stated that I'm still in favor of Barton - when he's coming off the bench.

[torotoe]

Spoiler:

Barton gets a lot of flak here. He’s one of our best PnR/handoff players. A good shooter. Good rebounder. Good handle, good passing. He’s big enough to play the three, which Gary/Malik aren’t ideal for. He’s got all-around skill that allows the nuggets to play potent offense. He is that third handoff threat that we need. And when the play breaks down, he’s one of our better iso options.

Granted, his last few games have been bad. He’s always been a streaky player, and this year has been a bit of a struggle. When he’s bad, he’s bad. And his defense is not great. He’s not without warts, but he’s a damn good player.

For all the “hero ball” complaints, I don’t think people are factoring in the context. Barton’s hero ball was the main reason the bench was not terrible last year. And he was actually pretty consistent. I believe Barton can be a valuable player on this squad, and I’m excited to see the thrill in the playoffs. The key is putting him in a role where he doesn’t have to play hero ball, but instead looks for great team offense.

I'll agree with your statement regarding Barton & bench & last year; but this is a different team and Barton is now a starter. Playing with Jokic requires a different approach than what he was asked to do last year.

I've even stated that I'm still in favor of Barton - when he's coming off the bench.

I have a different take. Barton is a better player next to jokic. He’s got the skills to be Gary Harris, and we’ve seen him be very good in that role... the first game of the season.

Millsap and Trey have been worse offensively. Plumlee looks great, but still can’t shoot. This puts a load on the wings. Gary, Nikola and trey aren’t shooting the three as well as last year. Craig is a 30% shooter*.

Barton is the best player the nuggets can start at SF this year IMO. Juancho had a really nice stretch, but as of late he’s a different player.

*Craig has shot .343 on threes since December

[The Rebel]

Barton gets a lot of flak here. He’s one of our best PnR/handoff players. A good shooter. Good rebounder. Good handle, good passing. He’s big enough to play the three, which Gary/Malik aren’t ideal for. He’s got all-around skill that allows the nuggets to play potent offense. He is that third handoff threat that we need. And when the play breaks down, he’s one of our better iso options.

Granted, his last few games have been bad. He’s always been a streaky player, and this year has been a bit of a struggle. When he’s bad, he’s bad. And his defense is not great. He’s not without warts, but he’s a damn good player.

For all the “hero ball” complaints, I don’t think people are factoring in the context. Barton’s hero ball was the main reason the bench was not terrible last year. And he was actually pretty consistent. I believe Barton can be a valuable player on this squad, and I’m excited to see the thrill in the playoffs. The key is putting him in a role where he doesn’t have to play hero ball, but instead looks for great team offense.

What? Our bench was the 5th worst bench in the league last year and at it worst was a bottom 2 bench last year. The improvements from 28th to 15th happened to coincide with Barton moving into more of a starting role. Other than Barton the only real changes to the bench over the summer was Monte Morris replacing Devin Harris. Now I like Monte Morris but no reasonable person is going to say that he is the only reason that the bench went from bottom 5 to top 3. Sure some of that is on individual players improving, but a lot of that has to do with them getting touches as well.

Fact is our offense was a top 2 offense in the league this year, our bench was top 5, without Barton. Our offense has dropped to 3rd overall since he has been back.

Those are just facts and are not even getting into the defensive issues we have with him on the court.

Also you say don't put him in the position of playing hero ball, that is his natural game, that is the way he wants to play. Do you think it was a coincidence that last night was the 1st night he hasn't tried to totally dominate the ball since he has been back? You do not find it a coincidence that he was benched half way through the 3rd quarter against the Nets in the last game and then finally started playing off the ball more?

I have been very clear, if Barton returns to playing off the ball and picking his spots within the offense than I am fine with him being our starting SF this year, but let's not act like he is more than he is. He is an iso ball chucker that Malone has to keep tight reins on if we want this team to win.

[The Rebel]

Spoiler:

Barton gets a lot of flak here. He’s one of our best PnR/handoff players. A good shooter. Good rebounder. Good handle, good passing. He’s big enough to play the three, which Gary/Malik aren’t ideal for. He’s got all-around skill that allows the nuggets to play potent offense. He is that third handoff threat that we need. And when the play breaks down, he’s one of our better iso options.

Granted, his last few games have been bad. He’s always been a streaky player, and this year has been a bit of a struggle. When he’s bad, he’s bad. And his defense is not great. He’s not without warts, but he’s a damn good player.

For all the “hero ball” complaints, I don’t think people are factoring in the context. Barton’s hero ball was the main reason the bench was not terrible last year. And he was actually pretty consistent. I believe Barton can be a valuable player on this squad, and I’m excited to see the thrill in the playoffs. The key is putting him in a role where he doesn’t have to play hero ball, but instead looks for great team offense.

I'll agree with your statement regarding Barton & bench & last year; but this is a different team and Barton is now a starter. Playing with Jokic requires a different approach than what he was asked to do last year.

I've even stated that I'm still in favor of Barton - when he's coming off the bench.

I have a different take. Barton is a better player next to jokic. He’s got the skills to be Gary Harris, and we’ve seen him be very good in that role... the first game of the season.

Millsap and Trey have been worse offensively. Plumlee looks great, but still can’t shoot. This puts a load on the wings. Gary, Nikola and trey aren’t shooting the three as well as last year. Craig is a 30% shooter*.

Barton is the best player the nuggets can start at SF this year IMO. Juancho had a really nice stretch, but as of late he’s a different player.

*Craig has shot .343 on threes since December

Barton has the skills to be Gary Harris? Are you high? Barton cannot cover a traffic cone compared to Harris, offensively Barton is fine, but I would argue he is more similar to what Beasley has been doing. Also I forgot to mention Beasley and Barton are the same exact height, and beasley is the better defender against SFs.

Barton is the best player we can start at SF when he gives the ball up but until he does that on a consistent basis than we are arguing about fantasy. He is an iso player that rarely passes and rarely moves off the ball. Him getting the ball in his hands immediately stops our whole offense as guys just stand in place not wanting to get in the way of Barton trying to get to the rim. Which would not be so bad if he did not stand at the top of the key dribbling in place for 5 seconds before he gets around to driving or shooting.

As for the shooting, you are right several guys have been struggling to shoot, although before he broke his toe there is no way to argue that Millsap was not considerably better on offense this year than last.

Juancho has been a different player as he was trying to play through the core injury but I would also say that this last week or two since he has became more active, a big part of Juancho's issue is that he cannot do what he does best when he is on the court with Barton, Craig, and Plumlee. There is no where for him to cut as the paint is packed and too much iso play forces guys to stay in place as their movement can bring a defender right to the ball.

[NuggetsWY]

I have a different take. Barton is a better player next to jokic. He’s got the skills to be Gary Harris, and we’ve seen him be very good in that role... the first game of the season.

You must be talking about fantasy basketball. Sure Barton is better with Jokic, but then so is everyone else.

Looking at NBA.com 2 player lineups on offense; Jokic with Barton is #16 (although some of those include players that don't play much). Let's consider the most used 2 player pairings that are better than Jokic & Barton:

Millsap-Beasley is highest - Beasley in the top 2? Wow!
Jokic-Beasley
Millsap-Barton
Jokic-Plumlee
Harris-Hernangomez
Millsap-Morris
Harris-Barton
Harris-Morris
Jokic-Barton - with 8 pairings ahead of this pairing

Looking at our worst defensive lineups, we see Barton in our five worst pairings as well as #7 & #9. His best defensive pairing is #13 (4th best) with Murray.

Barton-Hernangomez as the worst
Barton-Plumlee is next
Barton-Morris
Barton-Beasley
Barton-Craig
Plumlee-Craig (this surprised me)
Barton-Lyles
Murray-Craig
Barton-Jokic --- ***
Jokic-Lyles
Hernangomez-Craig
Murray-Hernangomez
Barton-Murray
Jokic-Beasley
Millsap-Craig
Jokic-Murray leading the team as our best defensive pairing

[U hova]

I don't even expect a 1st round win - we have some bad match-ups that can end us in 5 or 6 games.

[skywalker33]

I would be disappointed if we don't win our 1st round series, we've played so well at home. I can see us going around 15-12 over the rest of the season so we'll be at home, so barring injuries we should be able to use that Mile High Magic to our advantage.

BYW, if my 15-12 prediction is correct, we'll have 52 wins, just as I predicted before the season !!

[NuggetsWY]

http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=13&t=1742009
Those with the courage to make a public prediction:
54-youngthegiant
50-The Joker
53-TunaFish
52-skywalker33
50-NuggetsWY