Nuggets vs Spurs

Post #1 » by **NuggetsWY** » Thu Apr 11, 2019 9:35 am

Nuggets vs Spurs - Home Team won every game
SAS 111-103
Den 102-99
SAS 104-103
Den 113-85

Statistical differences include:
Den is the better O-rebound team 12-9

Den takes more 3pt shots 2538-2047 for the year
SAS makes a higher pct of 3pt shots 39-35

SAS makes a higher pct of FT

SAS takes a higher pct of their FGs from 2pt range - SAS tends to be more efficient at using picks - Denver's defense needs to be sharp

Post #2 » by **The Rebel** » Thu Apr 11, 2019 12:26 pm

The issue with the Spurs is that our defense is designed to give up mid and long range 2s, which is what the Spurs stars are good at. Could be a difficult series, but if Jokic and Murray show up ready to play and Millsap can slow down Aldridge than I think we should win this one pretty quickly.

manchambo · Post #3 » by **manchambo** » Thu Apr 11, 2019 9:45 pm

I think Denver will win, though not easily.

If Denver doesn't get good games out of at least two of Harris, Barton, Beasley, Morris, Craig, we may be in trouble. It's hard to predict how players will react to their first experience with playoff, but luckily we don't need all of those players to be great--just 2-3 of them.

Post #4 » by **NuggetsWY** » Fri Apr 12, 2019 3:00 pm

They say the playoffs get more physical - will the Nuggets deal well with that?

They say the great players elevate their game in the playoffs - which Nuggets will elevate their games? Jokic & Murray should but will anyone else?

U hova · Post #5 » by **U hova** » Fri Apr 12, 2019 3:59 pm

Can't take a series for granted... especially since this is Malone's first playoffs versus Pop's 20+ years of adjusting to match-ups.

I don't respect Malone's ability to adjust on the fly if we get blindsided by something. We might be able to "out-talent" them but we'll need Murray and Harris to show up. If it comes down to it, having game 7 at home is huge.

Post #6 » by **THE J0KER** » Fri Apr 12, 2019 6:36 pm

Here is my post from Nuggets vs Spurs GB thread:

THE J0KER wrote:Two seasons in the row San Antonio Spurs are a team with highest winning percentage difference compared records at home and on the road. (0.780 and 0.805 at home, just 0.390 and 0.341 on the road)
Two seasons in the row Denver Nuggets are a team with 2nd highest winning percentage difference compared records at home and on the road. (0.829 and 0.756 at home, just 0.488 and 0.366 on the road)

The home team won the last 10 games between these two!

So who will win most probably between these two?
The team with a home-court advantage! Who else?

Also, if we compare lineups, Denver is also with a 5-4 advantage:

Jokic > Aldridge
Millsap > Poeltl
Barton << DeRozan
Harris > Forbes
Murray >> White
DEN/bench = SAS/bench
Malone << Popovic

TunaFish · Post #7 » by **TunaFish** » Sat Apr 13, 2019 2:22 am

I'm expecting the Spurs to look to Aldridge to dominate. Denver might throw some doubles at him with a wing dropping down to try and slow him down as much as possible. The Nuggets will likely rotate all of their bigs including Plumley to defend Aldridge.

DeRozen is going to be a load and they will probably use Craig more for defense. The Spurs like to move the ball to set up easy shots for both of their stars. Can they outshoot Denver? My biggest concern is that Denver is not going to bring the same intensity that they have only briefly shown at times recently. One of those times was the first and last 3 minutes of the Minnesota game, so they have it in them.

I think they are ready for this challenge in particular and I think Denver will prevail in the series.

RRFB · Post #8 » by **RRFB** » Sat Apr 13, 2019 4:12 am

I'll be at all 4 potential home games.

I think the key is to stay home on San Antonio's shooters -- Mills, Bertans, Belinelli, and Forbes. Aldridge and Derozan are going to do their thing, but if their shooters get hot and Denver tries to turn it into a three point contest, we could be in trouble. Luckily, the Spurs don't have the personnel to exploit our PnR defense like some of the other Western teams.

Post #9 » by **NuggetsWY** » Sat Apr 13, 2019 2:02 pm

When the Nuggets "must have" a basket - when the Spurs are focused on stopping a key shot at the end of the game; which Nugget needs to take the big shot with the Spurs expecting him to take "the shot"? So far, the Nuggets have taken the approach of "find the open man". Will that work in the playoffs?

skywalker33 · Post #10 » by **skywalker33** » Sun Apr 14, 2019 10:39 pm

With all the upsets in the 1st round of playoffs, just makes me feel a little more at ease with this loss. We shot SOO poorly yet we were in it until the end. Also, we handled Aldridge and DD, the unsuspected players stepping up like White and Forbes outplaying our backcourt, how often is that gonna happen ??

MoMM · Post #11 » by **MoMM** » Mon Apr 15, 2019 12:25 am

Spurs in 6, IMO. Experience matters.

skywalker33 · Post #12 » by **skywalker33** » Mon Apr 15, 2019 2:17 am

MoMM wrote:Spurs in 6, IMO. Experience matters.

There's a whole thread on the General Board and you feel a need to come over here to troll ??? I don't expect you to be on this forum long. Why not go find your own rock to crawl back under it :roll:

Post #13 » by **NuggetsWY** » Mon Apr 15, 2019 2:11 pm

The Colorado Avalanche lost their first game 4-0. In their second game, they came out and played a much more physical game. The Nuggets need to do the same. The problem is, which Nuggets are even capable of playing physical?

Jokic can but he doesn't like to.
Millsap is strong enough but he prefers finesse.
Plumlee, for all of his vaunted defense, isn't really a physical player.

Barton certainly isn't a physical player.
Craig is in the same category as Plumlee.

Harris plays nice defense but not really a physical game.
Murray seems to enjoy banging against a big - so he's a possibility, but he can't change the entire game by himself.
Beasley plays nice defense but isn't really a physical player.
Morris isn't a physical player.

Deeper on the bench? Lyles? Nope! Lydon? Maybe. Hernangomez? Nope!

and it isn't just on defense - most of the Nuggets prefer an easy outside shot over driving to the hoop.

Manolito · Post #14 » by **Manolito** » Wed Apr 17, 2019 7:25 am

Shall Aldridge be suspended for game three?

https://streamable.com/p3i6q?fbclid=IwAR21hr3KKNf2PdtVOY8fLCeY_GznH9hOKdBw-lT00reyEzMnrjaJxpFfTIY

Post #15 » by **NuggetsWY** » Wed Apr 17, 2019 7:32 am

Manolito wrote:Shall Aldridge be suspended for game three?

https://streamable.com/p3i6q?fbclid=IwAR21hr3KKNf2PdtVOY8fLCeY_GznH9hOKdBw-lT00reyEzMnrjaJxpFfTIY

Nah but the Nuggets need to figure out how to shoot

U hova · Post #16 » by **U hova** » Wed Apr 17, 2019 1:54 pm

Manolito wrote:Shall Aldridge be suspended for game three?

https://streamable.com/p3i6q?fbclid=IwAR21hr3KKNf2PdtVOY8fLCeY_GznH9hOKdBw-lT00reyEzMnrjaJxpFfTIY

I hope not, the Spurs are scarier without him.

but man... he winds up and everything. That was completely malicious and has no place in the league.

Post #17 » by **THE J0KER** » Fri Apr 19, 2019 10:52 am

I can't believe anyone except the Warriors can survive in playoff 1-3 against Pop, so I guess next 4th game is must-win for the Nuggets. To beat someone you not won on the road since 2012 is very tough mission. For that purpose no anymore any excuse for any big strategic blunder, so Barton should be replaced from the starting lineup immediately, or at least limited on single digit minutes in first half already.

But of course, it is not everything on Malone there. Some players needs to show-up. I really want to see Jokic being more aggressive, but to be fair, his overall numbers so far is under expectations. It is Murray by far the player who underperforming this series so far. One spectacular and two decent quarters is not enough for sure in three games from player used to be our #2 option. Barton being outplayed at SF by DeRozan was well expected, but Murray 38%fg 29%3pt 70%ft (45%ts!) with his Spurs matchup Derick White literally killing us so far (23ppg 74%ts) is nothing but nightmare.

U hova · Post #18 » by **U hova** » Fri Apr 19, 2019 2:57 pm

The Warriors aren't exactly known for doing well when the series is 3-1

Post #19 » by **NuggetsWY** » Fri Apr 19, 2019 5:05 pm

Jokic's minutes are UP, his ppg are DOWN w/reb & ast UP
Murray ppg are DOWN
Harris' minutes are UP and his scoring is UP
Millsap minutes are UP, ppg are UP
Barton's minutes are about the same with 28 during the season & 26 in the playoffs - his scoring is DOWN

If Jokic & Murray are both scoring less than during the season; that's a major, major issue.

U hova · Post #20 » by **U hova** » Fri Apr 19, 2019 5:47 pm

well we don't even need to use the ppg... Jokic looks incredibly passive and refuses to attack his man when the ball swings his way, at least until the 3rd and 4th. It's getting to the point where there's 7 seconds left on the clock and he swings it back out to the perimeter for the reset... inevitably resulting in worse shots.

This isn't just bad on a "Jokic isn't scoring" level. This is negative IQ levels of negligent shot-clock management. It's like he isn't focused on the game at times.