Nuggets vs Blazers

Post #1 » by **NuggetsWY** » Sun Apr 28, 2019 2:05 pm

Should be an interesting series: Denver's bigs should be able to dominate but Portland's smalls should be very difficult to slow down.

Harris & Craig should be the primary defenders on Lillard but the way Denver switches on defense, every Nugget will end up one-on-one against Lillard in every game - and that's the danger for Denver.

Jokic will need to look to score but Murray will need to score too.

eathb_au · Post #2 » by **eathb_au** » Sun Apr 28, 2019 3:26 pm

Rumours are brewing about Kanter's shoulders so we should really be attacking him on the offensive end on basically all possessions.

Hopefully 1 day rest is enough for Jokic to pick up again. Would like Millsap to step up offensively here and do work in the paint.

One assumes that Portland will double Jokic on all possessions since they don't have anyone that can defend him 1:1, so our guards need to be ready for the open 3s unlike the Spurs series

What I don't want to see:
A shootout between Murray and Lillard
Ball hogging and iso shenanigans from Barton and Plumlee
Millsap being unable to defend a random PF (Rudy Gay last series).

blazersfan52 · Post #3 » by **blazersfan52** » Sun Apr 28, 2019 7:32 pm

Blazers fan here. Not gonna lie I fully expect to lose this series. But best of luck! I've liked the Nuggets for awhile now. Especially Jokic's game, briefly met him once. Assuming you beat us hope you guys make it to the finals!

Post #4 » by **NuggetsWY** » Sun Apr 28, 2019 8:47 pm

blazersfan52 wrote:Blazers fan here. Not gonna lie I fully expect to lose this series. But best of luck! I've liked the Nuggets for awhile now. Especially Jokic's game, briefly met him once. Assuming you beat us hope you guys make it to the finals!

Thanks for the kind words. I do expect us to win, but I don't think it's a guarantee. Denver will need to play top defense against the Blazer guards.

Having lived in Portland back in the 1980's, I still have an affinity for the Blazers. So I watch them whenever I can and I do like their guard play.

looking forward to watching the series and personally, I hope it's much easier for us than the Spurs were. Lol

TunaFish · Post #5 » by **TunaFish** » Mon Apr 29, 2019 12:09 am

Using a WAR formula, one projection is giving the Nuggets a 75% probability of reaching the Conference Finals:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-nba-predictions/?ex_cid=endlink

U hova · Post #6 » by **U hova** » Mon Apr 29, 2019 2:44 pm

eathb_au wrote:Rumours are brewing about Kanter's shoulders so we should really be attacking him on the offensive end on basically all possessions.

We should be making him shuffle his feet on all possessions anyways given his reputation.

Post #7 » by **THE J0KER** » Mon Apr 29, 2019 5:39 pm

Post #8 » by **Moonbeam** » Mon Apr 29, 2019 10:31 pm

This should be a fun series. Both teams have to feel good about how this season has gone so far after last year, right?

Hope it's a well-contested and healthy series. If the Nuggets win, I'll be pulling for them to win the whole thing.

Post #9 » by **NuggetsWY** » Mon Apr 29, 2019 11:00 pm

Moonbeam wrote:This should be a fun series. Both teams have to feel good about how this season has gone so far after last year, right?

Hope it's a well-contested and healthy series. If the Nuggets win, I'll be pulling for them to win the whole thing.

and we thank you for the support :wink:

No doubt Denver feels good about this season and while Portland had some ups & downs, finishing 3rd had to feel pretty good.

I do not see Portland winning a game 7 in Denver, so if the Blazers are going to Rip City us, they will need to win all three games at home and one of the first three Denver games. I'm prepared for Lillard to be spectacular but we can not let McCollum get there too.

Post #10 » by **THE J0KER** » Tue Apr 30, 2019 12:14 am

With Paul Millsap the only player with playoff experience (+coach Malone also without PO experience), Denver Nuggets playoff inexperience was a major problem before the start of this postseason. That is why we lost as the regular season best homecourt team vs mediocre road team game#1, in the 2nd half of game#2 have -19 deficit, and in a first road game (game#3) Spurs trashed us. But since game#4 Nuggets are the same team we supposed to be after reaching 2nd seed during the regular season. Comparing Denver123 with Denver4567 you can see two different teams, and the team which will face Portland in this series is the better one - Denver4567!

Inexperience problem is most notable from numbers of our youngest starter Jamal Murray, and coach Malone inexperience is most notable by Will Barton minutes during 1st halves:

Murray in games #1#2#3 was 15.7−1.7−2.0 with awful FG/3%/FT% percentages 39%/29%/70% while opponent PG White was 23-4-3.
Murray in games #4#5#6#7 is 21.5−3.5−5.8 with all percentages much improved 49%/38%/86% while opponent PG White was 9-2-3.
Will Barton in the 1st half of games #1#2#3 was scheduled to play over 17 minutes, while in games #4#5#6#7 under 10 mpg!
All these numbers are a big part of explanations why we are 1-2 after opening three games vs Spurs despite playing at home twice, but 3-1 in last 4 games.

Ironically, because of their playoff inexperience, Nuggets has more benefits for playing the first round in 7 games than if they finished their job already in 4 or 5 games! We are clear favorites to win this series vs Portland, but saying all this, Nuggets still should not be so superconfident against our well-known division rival. Blazers are impressive in their R1 series. It is not a big surprise when #3 seed beat #6 in the playoff, but in this case, nobody expected a 4-1 win with Blazers playing without their 3rd best player and starting center. Their franchise player Lillard played some career-best basketball in that series, and we should be prepared that he will repeat the same against us. Also, I say 7 games series in the first round is pure gold for our young core to bring some experience, but on the other hand, the price can be tiredness and fatigue of some our starters, particularly Joker. Malone didn't prepare Jokic for such efforts during the regular season, so during Spurs series he already played more 38+mpg games than during the whole regular season, including overtime games. Jokic didn't play any single 40+ game in the regular season and only once played 39+, so when he played during game#7 vs Spurs over 43 minutes, I'm not happy how he looked in the 4th quarter.

Game#1 tonight will be probably key in this series, when will Portland have best chances to break us if not today? But I'm less scared than before game#1 of San Antonio series.

KeithCozart · Post #11 » by **KeithCozart** » Wed May 1, 2019 4:03 pm

Tonight (my time-zone) is the most important game of the series in my opinion. We have to defend our HCA and move the series to Portland with 2-0 lead. I expect little different game this time. Lillard saw that we have problems with guarding pick and roll in game 1 and i expect him to force that as much as possible in game 2. Also Millsap and Plumlee must play their best defense on Kanter, he is elite in low post and can be big trouble if he gets 2-3 makes in a row.

Also our bench needs to step up big time. Barton and Beasley should go 10+ points tonight, Morris needs totake care of the ball when he is on the floor.

And Jokic... Just be Jokic. They cant defend him, as Primetime once said "Just get the ball to 21". In our case, just get the ball to 15.

If we put W tonight, statement W, I believe this series is over in 5 games.

Go Nuggs.

Post #12 » by **THE J0KER** » Thu May 2, 2019 4:07 am

The pathetic first half in game#2 today (just 35 points, only 12 in the 2nd quarter) can cost us very much in this series. 35%fg% 21%3p% 61%ft% are nightmare percentages.

Just like San Antonio, Portland is 32-9 great at the home this season (only Denver and Milwaukee are better), so it will not be easy to break back.

skywalker33 · Post #13 » by **skywalker33** » Thu May 2, 2019 3:26 pm

There's a small part of me that would be ok if we lose this series. I had two goals for this team this year, make the playoffs and win a playoff series. CHECK. I don't feel this series is nearly over but if we were to make it to the WCF this year, we're more than likely to get pummelled in that series and I don't want that to stifle our drive for next year. We have the potential to be a better team next year with MPJ and Vanderbilt getting PT. Had a taste of what playoff basketball is like, time to toughen up. And with GSW's roster looking in flux, I definitely think we have a better chance to take the WCF next year than this. For next years playoffs, remaining hungry rather than returning humiliated is what I want for this team.

That said, we were down 1-1 in the Spurs series, hadn't won in San Antonio in years and we still came back to beat them, this isn't much different. We should feel the same moxie, hopefully give us the motivation to shoot better and take down these Blazers. Shooting should get better, and I can see us stepping up to take HCA back. Perhaps the teams endurance has been exhausted a bit, fatigue may be wearing on this team, let's see if they can step it up in POR.

GO NUGGETS !!

psimanic1 · Post #14 » by **psimanic1** » Thu May 2, 2019 8:12 pm

If we really get to the part that we are loosing this matchup, would you guys like to see MPJ for atleast a Q?

Post #15 » by **THE J0KER** » Thu May 2, 2019 9:25 pm

psimanic1 wrote:If we really get to the part that we are loosing this matchup, would you guys like to see MPJ for atleast a Q?

No! He missed college career due to injury, never played in G-League, so no matter how talented MPJ is, he needs some preseason experience or at least Summer League level experience before NBA debut. I don't like the fact that Monte Morris is so under the radar this season just because he played only about 20 minutes total last season during garbage time in 3 games, and lose his rookie status for this season. MM deserved much bigger attention (aka respect) this season for sure, which would be positive for his confidence.

Post #16 » by **NuggetsWY** » Thu May 2, 2019 9:27 pm

psimanic1 wrote:If we really get to the part that we are loosing this matchup, would you guys like to see MPJ for atleast a Q?

Nope

Post #17 » by **NuggetsWY** » Thu May 2, 2019 9:28 pm

Blazer fans are optimistic because they won a game in Denver. Makes sense.
Then again, Spurs fans were optimistic because they won a game in Denver. :roll:

I still believe.

skywalker33 · Post #18 » by **skywalker33** » Thu May 2, 2019 9:59 pm

NuggetsWY wrote:Blazer fans are optimistic because they won a game in Denver. Makes sense.
Then again, Spurs fans were optimistic because they won a game in Denver.
I still believe.

We've already beaten them in POR once, could/should have been twice. We can do this if we make some shots. Heard we were 21/50 in the paint, that's pathetic.

Post #19 » by **THE J0KER** » Thu May 2, 2019 11:14 pm

My hopes after 1-1 vs Blazers is bigger than vs Spurs because I didn't know will Malone ever remove Barton from starting lineup and now we don't have such problem. But if Murray injury is serious, we are arguably in bigger problem vs Portland than vs Spurs. Jokic is great during this playoff whole time, so Jamal Murray becomes a key factor will Nuggets win or lose some game. In Nuggets 2019 playoff four loses so far Murray numbers are awful 13-2 39%ts%, but in five wins he is (near) all-star level 23-6 64%ts% combo guard! We need Super-Murray from game#1 (23p 8a) desperately in at least another 3 games vs Portland.

Post #20 » by **THE J0KER** » Sun May 5, 2019 8:13 am

If you want to know how important is today game#4, just look at this stat:

• Teams that lead a best-of-seven series 3-1 go on to win the series 95.6% of the time (152-7).

We playing "must win" game on the road after a heartbreaking 4xOT loss with physically and emotionally deadbeat players... but also, such games can be a birthplace of true champions! After all, we already have one heroic game#4 on the road during this playoff.