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2019-20 Wild, Wild West thread

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2019-20 Wild, Wild West thread 

Post#1 » by THE J0KER » Thu Jul 18, 2019 12:27 am

After exciting races for a playoff spot in 2016-17 and 2017-18 which unfortunately finished with #9 places both times with just one single win away from the playoff, Denver Nuggets team last season stepped into a new level of competitiveness and become a team which fighting for some of the TOP4 seeds. The same we should expect this season. There is no such dominant team in the West like Golden State was past 5 seasons, so Denver has some chances even to be for the first time ever Western Conference #1 seed. But on other hands, several other WC teams improved, like both teams from LA, Houston, and Utah, so even TOP4 status is not guaranteed.

DENVER NUGGETS - all key players stay, and all of them except veteran Millsap are young and should improve this season. Also, the team added skilled forward Jeramy Grant from Oklahoma and there are big expectations from rookie Micheal Porter Jr. I see TOP5 or close NBA team, with TOP5 or close offense, clearly TOP10 defense, TOP5 or close starting lineup, TOP5 or close bench. With Murray-Harris-Grant-Millsap-Jokic lineup with most minutes per game, followed by Beasley and Porter from the bench as 20+ mpg backup options what can go wrong? I see TOP3 seed!

LA CLIPPERS - favorites to win the title this season by many, after Kawhi Leonard and Paul George decided to join. The well-composed team also with traditionally best bench in the league led by Lou Williams and Harrell. George surgery recovery and Kawhi load management may affect them, so Nuggets is one of the teams with some chances to be better than Clippers in the regular season.

LA LAKERS - with LeBron and Devis, and several notable players and veterans (Kuzma, Danny Green, Cousins, Rondo...) Lakers can win a ring, but as usual, I don't think LeBron will care too much about playoff seeding, so no surprise to see them out of TOP4 during the regular season.

HOUSTON ROCKETS - team which was 5 times TOP4 seed on the West in past 6 seasons is better than last season after Westbrook-Paul trade because CP3 is 34y old while Russ is close to his prime. Mike D'Antoni system build around superstar Harden works very well, no surprise to see them in the regular season TOP3.

UTAH JAZZ - good playoff team from past two seasons now stepped into next level adding Conley and Bogdanovic to Mitchell and Gobert. Not sure about WC TOP3, but sure about their TOP5 seed status.

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS - at some point this summer former dominant NBA team in the past 5 seasons are not even sure for a playoff spot, but after adding D'Angelo Russell should not be problems for such goal. And if Tompson will be ready for the playoff, GSW will be the team which nobody wants to face in a playoff.

PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS - a team which was #3 seed last two seasons should reach the playoff for sure, but I'm not sure this time they going to be TOP5.

SAN ANTONIO SPURS AND DALLAS MAVERICKS - should fight for last #8 spot. Spurs with Pop, Aldridge, and DeRozan is not so impressive, but we talking here about franchise which still didn't miss any playoff in this century! On the other hand, Dallas has a very interesting Euro duo in Doncic and Porzingis.

HONORABLE MENTION - Sacramento Kings, New Orleans Pelicans, Minnesota Timberwolves, Phoenix Suns, Memphis Grizzlies, Oklahoma City Thunder.



538 projections:
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Bookmakers "West Winner" odds:
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What do You expect?
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Re: 2019-20 Wild, Wild West thread 

Post#2 » by NuggetsWY » Thu Jul 18, 2019 2:54 pm

Still too early but without all the details, here's my groupings and I do see gaps between these groups:

1-3 Nuggets - Jazz - Clippers for the top-3 in the West - sequence in question

4-6 Blazers - Lakers - Rockets

7-9 Kings - Spurs - Thunder
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Re: 2019-20 Wild, Wild West thread 

Post#3 » by THE J0KER » Thu Jul 18, 2019 6:55 pm

Western 2020 all-star choice (my early prediction):

Curry, Harden, Kawhi, LeBron, Jokic
BENCH: Davis, George, Westbrook, Lillard, Gobert, Doncic, Towns
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Re: 2019-20 Wild, Wild West thread 

Post#4 » by THE J0KER » Tue Jul 23, 2019 2:12 pm

According to this Forbes article, Vegas Projects Nuggets Slipping To Fifth In West With An Over/Under Of 50.5 Wins. But we are +3 games ahead of #6 GSW, and almost tied (-1) with Lakers and Rockets, and -2 close to WC#2 Utah.

Image

They clearly underrate Nuggets, but to be fair I think every one of these TOP10 teams will make more wins this season, disbalance between best teams and the rest of the league are bigger than these odds say. Maybe LA teams will be exceptions due to too big load management.

Western Conference becomes less friendly, so with the same team 3 wins less is realistic projection. But we are not the same team from the previous season. With Murray improvement, and Grant and MPJ fixing forward spot weakness, even if Millsap continues to decline, Denver basic projections should be around 55, not 50 wins.
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Re: 2019-20 Wild, Wild West thread 

Post#5 » by NuggetsWY » Tue Jul 23, 2019 11:19 pm

THE J0KER wrote:
Spoiler:
According to this Forbes article, Vegas Projects Nuggets Slipping To Fifth In West With An Over/Under Of 50.5 Wins. But we are +3 games ahead of #6 GSW, and almost tied (-1) with Lakers and Rockets, and -2 close to WC#2 Utah.
Image

They clearly underrate Nuggets, but to be fair I think every one of these TOP10 teams will make more wins this season, disbalance between best teams and the rest of the league are bigger than these odds say. Maybe LA teams will be exceptions due to too big load management.

Western Conference becomes less friendly, so with the same team 3 wins less is realistic projection. But we are not the same team from the previous season. With Murray improvement, and Grant and MPJ fixing forward spot weakness, even if Millsap continues to decline, Denver basic projections should be around 55, not 50 wins.

When does anyone not underrate the Nuggets?

Trying to be as honest as possible and only looking at the West:

Clippers are probably better than the Nuggets
Jazz are maybe better than the Nuggets - but it should be close
Lakers are too full of question marks with too many "chemistry issues" for me to judge
Rockets are too full of question marks with too many "chemistry issues" for me to judge

I'm expecting the Nuggets to finish in the top-3 in the west and unwilling to predict 1st or 2nd or 3rd.

I'm also expecting the Warriors to be a difficult team in the playoffs, if their team does at all well and they get Thompson back by playoff time.
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Re: 2019-20 Wild, Wild West thread 

Post#6 » by THE J0KER » Wed Jul 24, 2019 2:48 pm

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Re: 2019-20 Wild, Wild West thread 

Post#7 » by skywalker33 » Thu Jul 25, 2019 8:55 pm

Only ONE preseason game in Denver AGAIN, POR gets to see MPJ before we will...
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Re: 2019-20 Wild, Wild West thread 

Post#8 » by NuggetsWY » Thu Jul 25, 2019 10:11 pm

skywalker33 wrote:Only ONE preseason game in Denver AGAIN, POR gets to see MPJ before we will...

and only two of those games on Nuggets' TV - hope my satellite package will pick up the others (they haven't set those dates yet)

My experience tells me that teams develop chemistry better when on the road; let's hope that is what will happen.
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Re: 2019-20 Wild, Wild West thread 

Post#9 » by THE J0KER » Thu Jul 25, 2019 11:19 pm

We can watch Jokic, Murray, Millsap?, Juancho, and Craig in September at the World Cup in China.

So, Porter and Grant will be definitely the most interesting thing to watch in our preseason games.
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Re: 2019-20 Wild, Wild West thread 

Post#10 » by skywalker33 » Fri Jul 26, 2019 1:54 am

THE J0KER wrote:We can watch Jokic, Murray, Millsap?, Juancho, and Craig in September at the World Cup in China.

So, Porter and Grant will be definitely the most interesting thing to watch in our preseason games.


I've already seen Jokic, Murray, Millsap, Juancho, Craig even Grant play, really wanted to see MPJ on the court. Just disappointed we have to wait until end of Sept for that.
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Re: 2019-20 Wild, Wild West thread 

Post#11 » by THE J0KER » Sun Aug 4, 2019 11:03 pm

Golden State signs 100/4 deal with Draymond Green, so they are not dynasty anymore, but with 4 great players (including MVP level Curry) they will be contenders at least until 2022. Houston has Harden, Russ, and Capela until 2022+ too, and both LA teams are stacked with stars if AD re-signs Lakers next summer as expected. McCollum re-signs extension so Portland big-3 are locked too next 3+ seasons. and powerful Utah roster will stay together at least until 2021. This golden Nuggets generation is cursed to play next three seasons in the Western Conference golden era, and don't forget Pelicans and Mavs potential.

For maiden NBA title Denver needs:
- Jokic stays MVP contender level
- Murray improves into all-star level
- The team stays this deep
- We trade for third TOP30 star or Porter rising into that level
- No creation "dynasty level" superteam in the league
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Re: 2019-20 Wild, Wild West thread 

Post#12 » by skywalker33 » Mon Aug 5, 2019 10:07 pm

THE J0KER wrote:Golden State signs 100/4 deal with Draymond Green, so they are not dynasty anymore, but with 4 great players (including MVP level Curry) they will be contenders at least until 2022. Houston has Harden, Russ, and Capela until 2022+ too, and both LA teams are stacked with stars if AD re-signs Lakers next summer as expected. McCollum re-signs extension so Portland big-3 are locked too next 3+ seasons. and powerful Utah roster will stay together at least until 2021. This golden Nuggets generation is cursed to play next three seasons in the Western Conference golden era, and don't forget Pelicans and Mavs potential.

For maiden NBA title Denver needs:
- Jokic stays MVP contender level
- Murray improves into all-star level
- The team stays this deep
- We trade for third TOP30 star or Porter rising into that level
- No creation "dynasty level" superteam in the league


You seem to be selling us short here, we were the #2 seed as one of the YOUNGEST teams last year but your supposition seems to be you have to go out and get free agents to get better....I am one who doesn't believe that, chemistry and individual growth can be very powerful.
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Re: 2019-20 Wild, Wild West thread 

Post#13 » by NuggetsWY » Tue Aug 6, 2019 1:37 am

skywalker33 wrote:
THE J0KER wrote:Golden State signs 100/4 deal with Draymond Green, so they are not dynasty anymore, but with 4 great players (including MVP level Curry) they will be contenders at least until 2022. Houston has Harden, Russ, and Capela until 2022+ too, and both LA teams are stacked with stars if AD re-signs Lakers next summer as expected. McCollum re-signs extension so Portland big-3 are locked too next 3+ seasons. and powerful Utah roster will stay together at least until 2021. This golden Nuggets generation is cursed to play next three seasons in the Western Conference golden era, and don't forget Pelicans and Mavs potential.

For maiden NBA title Denver needs:
- Jokic stays MVP contender level
- Murray improves into all-star level
- The team stays this deep
- We trade for third TOP30 star or Porter rising into that level
- No creation "dynasty level" superteam in the league

You seem to be selling us short here, we were the #2 seed as one of the YOUNGEST teams last year but your supposition seems to be you have to go out and get free agents to get better....I am one who doesn't believe that, chemistry and individual growth can be very powerful.

If young players don't get better - get rid of them. But let's not overlook Grant's acquisition. He started 77 games last year for OKC and averaged 50% FG at 10+ shots per game. He took about 1.5 3pt shots and hit 39%. He shot 70% from the FT line and added 5+ rebounds plus one assist almost one steal and better than one block per game with less than one turnover. The short story is 33 mpg with 13+ ppg and 5+ rpg --- and that's a very nice addition. Adding a "TOP anything" usually means someone that needs the ball in their hands. We've got Jokic & Murray & Morris & Beasley & Barton - even Grant & Vanderbilt aren't too bad at that either.

I like our roster right where it is for this year and frankly, the future's biggest problem will be cap management.
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Re: 2019-20 Wild, Wild West thread 

Post#14 » by skywalker33 » Tue Aug 6, 2019 2:24 am

NuggetsWY wrote:
skywalker33 wrote:
THE J0KER wrote:Golden State signs 100/4 deal with Draymond Green, so they are not dynasty anymore, but with 4 great players (including MVP level Curry) they will be contenders at least until 2022. Houston has Harden, Russ, and Capela until 2022+ too, and both LA teams are stacked with stars if AD re-signs Lakers next summer as expected. McCollum re-signs extension so Portland big-3 are locked too next 3+ seasons. and powerful Utah roster will stay together at least until 2021. This golden Nuggets generation is cursed to play next three seasons in the Western Conference golden era, and don't forget Pelicans and Mavs potential.

For maiden NBA title Denver needs:
- Jokic stays MVP contender level
- Murray improves into all-star level
- The team stays this deep
- We trade for third TOP30 star or Porter rising into that level
- No creation "dynasty level" superteam in the league

You seem to be selling us short here, we were the #2 seed as one of the YOUNGEST teams last year but your supposition seems to be you have to go out and get free agents to get better....I am one who doesn't believe that, chemistry and individual growth can be very powerful.

If young players don't get better - get rid of them. But let's not overlook Grant's acquisition. He started 77 games last year for OKC and averaged 50% FG at 10+ shots per game. He took about 1.5 3pt shots and hit 39%. He shot 70% from the FT line and added 5+ rebounds plus one assist almost one steal and better than one block per game with less than one turnover. The short story is 33 mpg with 13+ ppg and 5+ rpg --- and that's a very nice addition. Adding a "TOP anything" usually means someone that needs the ball in their hands. We've got Jokic & Murray & Morris & Beasley & Barton - even Grant & Vanderbilt aren't too bad at that either.

I like our roster right where it is for this year and frankly, the future's biggest problem will be cap management.


:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: Gotta think you mean Porter there, JV is not much of a shooter
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Re: 2019-20 Wild, Wild West thread 

Post#15 » by NuggetsWY » Tue Aug 6, 2019 4:05 am

skywalker33 wrote:
NuggetsWY wrote:
skywalker33 wrote:You seem to be selling us short here, we were the #2 seed as one of the YOUNGEST teams last year but your supposition seems to be you have to go out and get free agents to get better....I am one who doesn't believe that, chemistry and individual growth can be very powerful.

If young players don't get better - get rid of them. But let's not overlook Grant's acquisition. He started 77 games last year for OKC and averaged 50% FG at 10+ shots per game. He took about 1.5 3pt shots and hit 39%. He shot 70% from the FT line and added 5+ rebounds plus one assist almost one steal and better than one block per game with less than one turnover. The short story is 33 mpg with 13+ ppg and 5+ rpg --- and that's a very nice addition. Adding a "TOP anything" usually means someone that needs the ball in their hands. We've got Jokic & Murray & Morris & Beasley & Barton - even Grant & Vanderbilt aren't too bad at that either.

I like our roster right where it is for this year and frankly, the future's biggest problem will be cap management.

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: Gotta think you mean Porter there, JV is not much of a shooter

I was implying ball handling :naaa: But just for you, Vanderbilt shot 47+% last year (but not many shots and no 3pt shots). :nod:

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