CRAZY trades on TnT board

[Coeur]

I have said more than once, as have others, Gordon is a good player but like Wiggins, he's best with the ball in his hands. Plus, he's probably not that much better than Grant - especially on the Nuggets.

I would love Gordon in Denver - off the bench for 15 mpg. He'd be nice to have when Jokic is off the floor but he costs too much for that. If Denver did get stuck with Wiggins, he'd be the most expensive 15 mpg bench player I could imagine because he'd be a worse fit than Gordon.

Ball in his hands part. I can’t figure out how out what you’re talking about other than not being able to put Wiggins in the spots that Gary Harris is in. Defended like that from those spots on the floor. And do the same with Gordon in millsaps spots.

Jokic and Murray will be unstoppable if you get some guys out in front of them that can get it done.

"Ball in his hands" is basically "usage".
24% Wiggins
22% Gordon
25% Murray
27% Jokic - and I'd love to see that number higher - he was 38th in the league last year

Then consider stats like "win shares" and "box plus/minus" and "value over replacement player" and you'll see that Gordon was not a major influence on his team regardless of his touches. He was just good, on a not so good team. Wiggins barely contributed in "win shares" and was a negative in BPM & VORP. Scoring is great and every team needs scoring but the Nuggets are built on passing and team-play.

Adding Wiggins and/or Gordon means Jokic and Murray will almost certainly have fewer touches. That is not good for the Nuggets. Think about Isaiah Thomas last year and his ineffectiveness. He was the only player to have a higher usage rate than Jokic, but that's his most effective game - when he has the ball in his hands.

That’s definitely saying something. And yes my argument really is that Wiggins usage umbers like that change drastically by putting him off ball. I watch Wiggins games and he is in the wrong spots. And it’s becauee the wolves are terrible.


Put him in the corner. Give him a bunch of easy baskets and fast break opportunities. Nobody needs him dribbling around the perimeter putting up contested jump shots

[NuggetsWY]

I have said more than once, as have others, Gordon is a good player but like Wiggins, he's best with the ball in his hands. Plus, he's probably not that much better than Grant - especially on the Nuggets.

I would love Gordon in Denver - off the bench for 15 mpg. He'd be nice to have when Jokic is off the floor but he costs too much for that. If Denver did get stuck with Wiggins, he'd be the most expensive 15 mpg bench player I could imagine because he'd be a worse fit than Gordon.

Ball in his hands part. I can’t figure out how out what you’re talking about other than not being able to put Wiggins in the spots that Gary Harris is in. Defended like that from those spots on the floor. And do the same with Gordon in millsaps spots.

Jokic and Murray will be unstoppable if you get some guys out in front of them that can get it done.

"Ball in his hands" is basically "usage".
24% Wiggins
22% Gordon
25% Murray
27% Jokic - and I'd love to see that number higher - he was 38th in the league last year

Then consider stats like "win shares" and "box plus/minus" and "value over replacement player" and you'll see that Gordon was not a major influence on his team regardless of his touches. He was just good, on a not so good team. Wiggins barely contributed in "win shares" and was a negative in BPM & VORP. Scoring is great and every team needs scoring but the Nuggets are built on passing and team-play.

Adding Wiggins and/or Gordon means Jokic and Murray will almost certainly have fewer touches. That is not good for the Nuggets. Think about Isaiah Thomas last year and his ineffectiveness. He was the only player to have a higher usage rate than Jokic, but that's his most effective game - when he has the ball in his hands.

That’s definitely saying something. And yes my argument really is that Wiggins usage umbers like that change drastically by putting him off ball. I watch Wiggins games and he is in the wrong spots. And it’s becauee the wolves are terrible.

Put him in the corner. Give him a bunch of easy baskets and fast break opportunities. Nobody needs him dribbling around the perimeter putting up contested jump shots

Maybe - but Grant did that last year successfully. I'll take the guy that's already proved himself over someone that might be able to do it if he plays with Jokic & Murray.

[Coeur]

How does Bogdanovic fit in in these numbers as like a Bradley Beal comparison?


Can anyone line out stats of Murray Harris and Beal and Bogdan and Beasley

[The Rebel]

To me the ball in his hands means how much he has to have the ball in his hands to be effective, nba.com has what is called tracking & play type stats which tells you how often someone gets the ball, what they do with it, how they score and what shooting percentages they score at.

So Aaron Gordon gets the ball on average 54.5 times a game with him keeping the ball 2.62 seconds each time he has the ball in his hands, Wiggins gets the ball 48 times a game and keeps it 3.23 seconds per game.

For comparison last year Will Barton got the ball on average 47.2 times a game keeping it 3.23 seconds per game and Jokic has the ball 2.33 seconds per touch.

Those are all high for guys who do not bring the ball up the court, and the only one who scores on an above average scoring rate is Jokic.

https://stats.nba.com/players/touches/


From there you look at their play types.

Gordon scores most of his points on post ups, isos, and spot up shots, he is right around average on all 3 scoring 1.00 points per spot up shot which puts him in the 56th percentile for the league, Grant got 1.05 points per shot on spot ups which puts him in the 67th percentile of the league. For reference Will Barton put up 1.06 points per shot on spot ups but did spot ups on 20% less of his possessions.

https://stats.nba.com/players/spot-up/?SeasonType=Regular%20Season&sort=PPP&dir=1


You will have a hard time finding anybody to defend Barton's fit in the offense, Gordon and Wiggins are the exact same type of player on offense. Sure they may be slightly better than Barton, but for the costs they are not worth it.

The type of players we should be going after are guys like Beal is he comes available. Since the types we really need are not available than we settled for the best fit for what we are trying to do with Grant.

Watching a ton of Gordon and Wiggins my thinking is that the role they play on those teams is that. But that’s not those guys roles if they were put in the best position to succeed. W Jokic and Murray I really think the ball in hands time goes way down because they’re guys capable of quick action and those numbers are looking bad because they’re being asked to be the Jokic or murrays of their teams.


Great post. Do you see huge differences in things for those 2 guys depending on role and team?


Wiggins is terrible creating with the ball from the perimeter. From a corner where it’s drive and dunk, shoot or dribble and pass it’s all quick action opportunities. Same with Gordon. I think part of why they’re getting numbers like that is that they aren’t the guy w 6 seconds left you toss to and say to go get a shot. That’s Jokic or Murray here anyway.


Easy baskets are hard to keep up with when teams are close. Aaron Gordon and Wiggins are a legit level or more above millsap, Harris, and Barton athletically.

Wiggins had the opportunity to be an off the ball player with Butler and Kat being the 1st and 2nd options, and while he was better he was no where near worth his contract. Wiggins is on a max deal, for that you better get a damn good 2 way player or you need a guy that can go get that shot in the last 6 seconds of the shot clock. He is not worth the money no matter how you spin it, and hoping that he changes with another different role is not worth the cost of his contract let alone giving up value for him.


It is no secret that I have wanted Gordon for 2 years until we got Grant, what you hope he would do in Denver is exactly what Grant did last year in OKC for less than half the money. It makes no sense to go get Gordon at this point.

[The Rebel]

How does Bogdanovic fit in in these numbers as like a Bradley Beal comparison?


Can anyone line out stats of Murray Harris and Beal and Bogdan and Beasley

I gave you the link you can do it yourself, otherwise you will have to wait until I have time which could be later today or a few days.

[U hova]

I stop by like once or twice a month and this dude's still talking about Wiggins... season needs to start already.

[NuggetsWY]

It is no secret that I have wanted Gordon for 2 years until we got Grant, what you hope he would do in Denver is exactly what Grant did last year in OKC for less than half the money. It makes no sense to go get Gordon at this point.

Yeah, we had lots of discussions about Gordon along with a couple other guys like Kelly Oubre and Sam Dekker and others.

[skywalker33]

It is no secret that I have wanted Gordon for 2 years until we got Grant, what you hope he would do in Denver is exactly what Grant did last year in OKC for less than half the money. It makes no sense to go get Gordon at this point.

Yeah, we had lots of discussions about Gordon along with a couple other guys like Kelly Oubre and Sam Dekker and others.

And of those two, seems most were 50/50 as Dekker hasn't really amounted to much yet while Oubre has just started to blossom. I wanted the Nuggets to draft Gordon but was very surprised be went as high as he did, he seemed(seems) overdrafted.And honestly, I feel he hasn't lived up to his potential yet, especially after his fourth year.

[Coeur]

To me the ball in his hands means how much he has to have the ball in his hands to be effective, nba.com has what is called tracking & play type stats which tells you how often someone gets the ball, what they do with it, how they score and what shooting percentages they score at.

So Aaron Gordon gets the ball on average 54.5 times a game with him keeping the ball 2.62 seconds each time he has the ball in his hands, Wiggins gets the ball 48 times a game and keeps it 3.23 seconds per game.

For comparison last year Will Barton got the ball on average 47.2 times a game keeping it 3.23 seconds per game and Jokic has the ball 2.33 seconds per touch.

Those are all high for guys who do not bring the ball up the court, and the only one who scores on an above average scoring rate is Jokic.

https://stats.nba.com/players/touches/


From there you look at their play types.

Gordon scores most of his points on post ups, isos, and spot up shots, he is right around average on all 3 scoring 1.00 points per spot up shot which puts him in the 56th percentile for the league, Grant got 1.05 points per shot on spot ups which puts him in the 67th percentile of the league. For reference Will Barton put up 1.06 points per shot on spot ups but did spot ups on 20% less of his possessions.

https://stats.nba.com/players/spot-up/?SeasonType=Regular%20Season&sort=PPP&dir=1


You will have a hard time finding anybody to defend Barton's fit in the offense, Gordon and Wiggins are the exact same type of player on offense. Sure they may be slightly better than Barton, but for the costs they are not worth it.

The type of players we should be going after are guys like Beal is he comes available. Since the types we really need are not available than we settled for the best fit for what we are trying to do with Grant.

Watching a ton of Gordon and Wiggins my thinking is that the role they play on those teams is that. But that’s not those guys roles if they were put in the best position to succeed. W Jokic and Murray I really think the ball in hands time goes way down because they’re guys capable of quick action and those numbers are looking bad because they’re being asked to be the Jokic or murrays of their teams.


Great post. Do you see huge differences in things for those 2 guys depending on role and team?


Wiggins is terrible creating with the ball from the perimeter. From a corner where it’s drive and dunk, shoot or dribble and pass it’s all quick action opportunities. Same with Gordon. I think part of why they’re getting numbers like that is that they aren’t the guy w 6 seconds left you toss to and say to go get a shot. That’s Jokic or Murray here anyway.


Easy baskets are hard to keep up with when teams are close. Aaron Gordon and Wiggins are a legit level or more above millsap, Harris, and Barton athletically.

Wiggins had the opportunity to be an off the ball player with Butler and Kat being the 1st and 2nd options, and while he was better he was no where near worth his contract. Wiggins is on a max deal, for that you better get a damn good 2 way player or you need a guy that can go get that shot in the last 6 seconds of the shot clock. He is not worth the money no matter how you spin it, and hoping that he changes with another different role is not worth the cost of his contract let alone giving up value for him.


It is no secret that I have wanted Gordon for 2 years until we got Grant, what you hope he would do in Denver is exactly what Grant did last year in OKC for less than half the money. It makes no sense to go get Gordon at this point.

Close. I’m not going to strongly argue that even though he was in the #3 role”” “” that basketball was brutal to watch and neither 1 or Himmy Butler 2 created any easy offense for Wiggins. And Jokic and Murray would create more than a little for him. That wolves season was my turn your turn bail out passes. Only thing it did show is it’s hard to guard multiple big wings

[skywalker33]

I stop by like once or twice a month and this dude's still talking about Wiggins... season needs to start already.

You should stop by more often, at least you have a more poignant, less repetitive point of view.

[The Rebel]

How does Bogdanovic fit in in these numbers as like a Bradley Beal comparison?

Can anyone line out stats of Murray Harris and Beal and Bogdan and Beasley

With the injury to Wall and their struggles at PG last year Beal only spotted up 13% of the time, but he scored an average of 1.13 points per possession, which put him in the 88th percentile of the NBA. On Iso plays he scored .92 points per possessions putting him in the top 40%, As a pick and roll ball handler he he gets .93 ppp which is top 25% of the league.

Bogdanovic gets 1.12 points per possessions so he is just behind Beal as a spot up shooter. .90 points per possession on iso plays, and .83 on pick and roll as a ball handler putting him at about average.

Murray last year put up 1.13 ppp and Beasley PPP 1.22 ppp on spot up shots putting Murray at top 18% and Beasley top 9%. Murray was at .83 ppp and Beasley was .36 on iso plays, as pick and roll ball handler Murray put up .87 ppp and Beasley .92 ppp.

For Harris and Barton both I am using 2017-2018 numbers, while they both were hurt last year the injuries are not known for their long term affects so it is more likely they will get at least back to those numbers. Harris put up 1.12 ppp and Barton PPP 1.11 ppp on spot up shots. Harris was at .93 ppp and Barton was 1.00 on iso plays, as pick and roll ball handler Harris put up .90 ppp and Barton .87 ppp.

Neither Bogdanovic nor Beal were ever the roll man last year, so I did not count those numbers.

Accounting for role that each guy plays ;they are all solid offensive players with strengths and weaknesses, however Beal’s weakness (the one that keeps him from being a top tier star) is also the one play the Nuggets rarely run which is an iso, but he is still good enough to be above average and Bogdanovic is average at iso plays. The Nuggets players are clearly better on the pick and roll as the ball handlers than Bogdanovic, Beal are clearly better. We run a lot of pick and rolls, with off ball player movement and spotting up, Beal is clearly better at those pick and rolls as the ball handler and is right there in shooting. With the big difference being that Beal is the clear number 1 option in Washington after Wall went down, and none of the guards are the number 1 option for the Nuggets.

Another important thing to look at for the Nuggets is how well guys fit the defensive role. Our guards are expected to stay with their man, very little switching. For shooting percentage allowed Harris gave up 39.1% shooting percentage, Murray 45.5%, Beasley 49.6%, and Barton 50.9%. Bogdanovic gave up 46.4% and Beal gave up 46.8. That shows how bad Barton really was, but also shows that Bogdanovic nor Beal are great fits defensively.

[The Rebel]

So I am sure the next question is why Beal over Bogdanovic or one of our guards? For me there are a couple of good reasons.

The biggest is that he is truly miscast as a franchise player on a team with at most 3 options and really after Wall was out and Porter was dumped no true even 3rd option, I think his numbers on both ends improve. Bogdanovic is already a 3rd option, and he is a good 3rd option on a playoff team, but I do not think he can step up to a 2nd option and I am not sure if he is good enough to be a better option than what we have as a 3rd option.

The other reason came up in the playoffs, we need a guy who is comfortable playing in an iso play when things break down. Barton is actually better at iso play, but does not seem comfortable playing off the ball. Beal is not only comfortable, his best season shooting wise was the last year Wall was healthy and Beal got 7.4 spot up shots in 2016-17 as opposed to 4.5 last year yet he is still well above average at iso plays especially considering he is the only viable option for the Wizards.

[The Rebel]

Wiggins had the opportunity to be an off the ball player with Butler and Kat being the 1st and 2nd options, and while he was better he was no where near worth his contract. Wiggins is on a max deal, for that you better get a damn good 2 way player or you need a guy that can go get that shot in the last 6 seconds of the shot clock. He is not worth the money no matter how you spin it, and hoping that he changes with another different role is not worth the cost of his contract let alone giving up value for him.


It is no secret that I have wanted Gordon for 2 years until we got Grant, what you hope he would do in Denver is exactly what Grant did last year in OKC for less than half the money. It makes no sense to go get Gordon at this point.

Close. I’m not going to strongly argue that even though he was in the #3 role”” “” that basketball was brutal to watch and neither 1 or Himmy Butler 2 created any easy offense for Wiggins. And Jokic and Murray would create more than a little for him. That wolves season was my turn your turn bail out passes. Only thing it did show is it’s hard to guard multiple big wings

If Butler was the problem than Wiggins should have improved this year when Butler was gone and Thibs got fired leading to a 4th offensive role that was given to Wiggins. The fact is that the best season Wiggins has was 2016-2017, which happened to be the season he had the most touches for the most time per touch in his career. In 2016-2017 he also had his lowest amount of catch and shoot attempts. Those both show he needs the ball in his hands to be at his best. Considering he only scores 41.1% of his shots on drives which is about average he is not bringing anything on quick drives either. None of that fits with what the Nuggets want out of their forwards, and he only scores .81 ppp on iso plays which is worse then Barton, Harris, or Murray are on iso plays. Sorry there is no reason to take on his max contract as his game does not fit and even his supposed strengths are not as good as our current guards weaknesses.

Fact is the driving force of that team was that they had Butler to carry them on offense when Kat got shut down, and they had Butler and Gibson to hide Wiggins and Kat’s defensive issues. Defending Wiggins was not the problem, it was that teams could not guard Butler and Kat both on offense.