ASG Break - Assessing the Nuggets

[NuggetsWY]

55 games down - record is 69% wins
27 games left

Do you think Denver is going to do better or worse in those 27 games?

What do you think about about Denver's offense so far?

What do you think about Denver's defense so far?

Why do you think we are in 2nd place in the West at the All-Star Game break?

*** *** ***

My assessment - a few stats first.

Offense
Our offense is 19th highest scoring offense but our pace is one of the slowest.
Free throw percentage is about average for the NBA.
2pt field goal percentage is about average for the NBA.
3pt field goal percentage is about average for the NBA.
Our free throw attempt rates is near the bottom of the NBA - meaning we aren't attacking the basket much (other factors affect this too, but that's probably the biggest factor).
Sometimes I get frustrated because we seem to take a lot of 3pt shots but we actually shoot fewer 3pt shots than most of the NBA.
So why are we doing so well?

Defense
Our defense is one of the best at opponents points against but our pace is one of the slowest.
Opponents shooting percentages against us are somewhere around NBA average or perhaps a little lower.

Best Guess at Why We are 2nd in the West
We are one of the best teams in terms of number of assists per game and one of the lowest in terms of number of assists.
-or-
It is our overall game. I just don't know.

[THE J0KER]

It is hard to predict anything from a team coached by Mike Malone who can irrationally to give rotation advantage to the player which not deserved or not fit well, and which franchise player can be player of the upcoming month of March or just being bored to play on a high level with some lazy numbers.

In November Denver has #1 defensive rating in entire NBA, but just #23 offense, while already in December our offensive rating rises from #23 to #6 but defensively we drop from #1 to #15!? So how predict unpredicted team like that?? If Jokic holds the current "All-NBA first team" shape, Murray proves that this February is no a fluke but consistency breakthrough we waiting from him for long, and Porter gets constantly 25+ minutes, I can see we staying at WC#2 with 3rd best NBA regular-season record. Depending on MPJ progress we can use homecourt advantage and be very competitive in eventual playoff semifinal series vs Clippers.

According to the remaining schedule, the key part will be between March 9 and March 25 where we can lose and win all these 9 games.


Depending on that, we can lose #2, and even #3 seed status, but also we can match franchise-high 57 wins!

[skywalker33]

Now that the trade deadline has been moved before the ASG, does it really have any true significance/meaning other than a mid-season break ? Ok, the skills competition, 3-pt and dunk contests are fun and give some accolades but the ASG is a joke, no defense is ever played and has really just become a popularity contest.

[NuggetsWY]

http://cbssports.com/nba/news/ranking-nbas-fringe-contenders-celtics-76ers-nuggets-among-second-tier-threats-to-be-taken-seriously

Another interesting article that includes a discussion regarding the Nuggets. There are several very poignant quotes.

We're still sleeping on the Nuggets, who are No. 2 in the West coming out of the All-Star break. They can play with anyone with their versatile defense and unique offense that runs through Nikola Jokic, who is one of the few truly game-changing passers in the league.

Denver has truly dangerous depth with Monte Morris and Will Barton coming off the bench. Michael Porter Jr. is a wild card who could feasibly swing a playoff game or two if he gets going. Adding Jordan McCrae represents even more wing depth. Working his way back into shape, Paul Millsap is one of the best players absolutely nobody talks about. Jerami Grant has been up and down, but when he's up this team is nasty. Torrey Craig is a primary wing defender and he can make shots. If Gary Harris remembers how to shoot, look out.

And after all this, we finally get to Jokic and Jamal Murray, the two stars who will ultimately determine Denver's fate as far as it can control. After a slow, out-of-shape start to the season, a noticeably slimmer Jokic has played like an MVP candidate, while Murray can be the best player on the floor at any given time. He can create offense whenever and pretty much however he wants. His two-man game with Jokic is art. His confidence is electric. His shot-making can be elite. If Jokic is aggressive as a scorer and Murray is in one of his grooves, the Nuggets can beat anyone.

There's also the matter of seeding. Right now, the No. 3 Clippers are tied in the loss the column with the No. 4 Jazz. If Utah were to jump the Clippers, that would potentially set up a Lakers-Clippers second-round series, while Denver would possibly be looking at perhaps Utah or Houston. The Nuggets are 2-0 against the Jazz this season and Jokic would be a major problem for the small-ball Rockets.

Last year's bracket broke Portland's way and it ended up in the conference finals. The same thing could easily happen to the Nuggets this season. They a really, really good team that could potentially end up on a favorable path. They're not the Lakers or the Clippers, but among the fringe contenders, they're as good as it gets. If they were in the East, they'd be No. 1 on this list.

[NuggetsWY]

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2020/2/19/21143247/nba-playoffs-west-lineups-lakers-clippers

ASG Break - time for everyone to talk about finishing the season. Here's another article that's interesting:

Locks: Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray
Other options: Gary Harris, Will Barton, Paul Millsap, Jerami Grant, Torrey Craig, and Michael Porter Jr.

The Nuggets have a lot to figure out before the postseason. Their success so far has come from three different factors: a superstar in Jokic, continuity, and depth. The latter two don’t mean as much in the playoffs.

Denver returned all five of its starters (Jokic, Millsap, Barton, Harris, and Murray) from last season. The group has a net rating of plus-12.1 this season and has logged the second-most minutes (577) of any lineup in the league.

But as dominant as it has been, that group could still face two key problems in a playoff series. They don’t have much size on the perimeter, as Murray, Harris, and Barton are all 6-foot-5 or shorter. Among their starters, Millsap, a 35-year-old big man, might be their best option against bigger wings.

But swapping Millsap out for a better perimeter defender, like Jerami Grant or Torrey Craig, may not work either because of their other major issue: lack of floor spacing. Their other four starters have a net rating of minus-5.3 in 163 minutes with Grant.

Jokic is a decent 3-point shooter, but he’s better posting up, getting into the lane, and kicking the ball out to shooters. The Nuggets just don’t have a lot of consistent marksmen. Murray and Barton are streaky and Harris (29.9 percent on 4.0 attempts per game) has been in a slump all season.

The one way for them to square the circle and add both size and shooting to their perimeter rotation is to lean more on Porter. He’s a 6-foot-10 wing that has consistently knocked down 3s (43.2 percent) after missing the last season. But he’s also a 21-year-old who has a long way to go on defense. The Nuggets are counting on him to be a key part of their future, but is he ready now?

[Coeur]

Went exactly as they planned.

Built for regular season

Watched almost entire rosters value go down.


Still not built for playoffs. But will finish regular season strong and that’s good enough

Can anyone remember last off-season? This is the season most here wanted

[NuggetsWY]

Went exactly as they planned.

Built for regular season

Watched almost entire rosters value go down.

Still not built for playoffs. But will finish regular season strong and that’s good enough

Can anyone remember last off-season? This is the season most here wanted

If everyone is healthy and playing well, this team could do quite nicely in the playoffs.
Jokic-Plumlee seem solid
Millsap-Grant (counting on Millsap's health)
Barton-Porter (assuming both are healthy)
Harris-Barton (if Harris gets his shot back)
Murray-Morris

Add in Vonleh, McRae, Bates-Diop and even Dozier - Malone has got a ton of depth past the nine players named above.

and I mostly believe in that roster with the notes from above.

[skywalker33]

Went exactly as they planned.

Built for regular season

Watched almost entire rosters value go down.

Still not built for playoffs. But will finish regular season strong and that’s good enough

Can anyone remember last off-season? This is the season most here wanted

If everyone is healthy and playing well, this team could do quite nicely in the playoffs.
Jokic-Plumlee seem solid
Millsap-Grant (counting on Millsap's health)
Barton-Porter (assuming both are healthy)
Harris-Barton (if Harris gets his shot back)
Murray-Morris

Add in Vonleh, McRae, Bates-Diop and even Dozier - Malone has got a ton of depth past the nine players named above.

and I mostly believe in that roster with the notes from above.

Ahh C'mon WY, this team will get swept in the playoffs, other than Jokic it doesn't have ONE player of Coeur's favorite players on it. Seeing what Wiggins and AG, just two of the superstars he suggested we trade for that are leading their teams to...well, what could've been...or might have been...or

[Coeur]

Went exactly as they planned.

Built for regular season

Watched almost entire rosters value go down.

Still not built for playoffs. But will finish regular season strong and that’s good enough

Can anyone remember last off-season? This is the season most here wanted

If everyone is healthy and playing well, this team could do quite nicely in the playoffs.
Jokic-Plumlee seem solid
Millsap-Grant (counting on Millsap's health)
Barton-Porter (assuming both are healthy)
Harris-Barton (if Harris gets his shot back)
Murray-Morris

Add in Vonleh, McRae, Bates-Diop and even Dozier - Malone has got a ton of depth past the nine players named above.

and I mostly believe in that roster with the notes from above.

11-13 deep = regular season team




This team did not improve on its weaknesses as a playoff team. Did not get a 3rd guy to score or a finisher for easy baskets in the playoffs.


A top 3 seed and great regular season is the plan. I’m just disappointed to see a team so close and not even try to step forward.


Maybe every other team gets hurt and somehow clips and lakers have each other 2nd round?

[Coeur]

Went exactly as they planned.

Built for regular season

Watched almost entire rosters value go down.

Still not built for playoffs. But will finish regular season strong and that’s good enough

Can anyone remember last off-season? This is the season most here wanted

If everyone is healthy and playing well, this team could do quite nicely in the playoffs.
Jokic-Plumlee seem solid
Millsap-Grant (counting on Millsap's health)
Barton-Porter (assuming both are healthy)
Harris-Barton (if Harris gets his shot back)
Murray-Morris

Add in Vonleh, McRae, Bates-Diop and even Dozier - Malone has got a ton of depth past the nine players named above.

and I mostly believe in that roster with the notes from above.

Ahh C'mon WY, this team will get swept in the playoffs, other than Jokic it doesn't have ONE player of Coeur's favorite players on it. Seeing what Wiggins and AG, just two of the superstars he suggested we trade for that are leading their teams to...well, what could've been...or might have been...or

Nugs won’t get swept first round. And clippers not good enough to sweep either


Yeah i named specific guys that could have been the missing 3rd or 4th guys. Better than believing that Gary Harris and Millsap are those guys on a playoff winning team.



This will be an exciting finish to the regular season. Nugs are loaded. Can anyone pass clippers and get into 3 seed? Then it’s wcf

[skywalker33]

If everyone is healthy and playing well, this team could do quite nicely in the playoffs.
Jokic-Plumlee seem solid
Millsap-Grant (counting on Millsap's health)
Barton-Porter (assuming both are healthy)
Harris-Barton (if Harris gets his shot back)
Murray-Morris

Add in Vonleh, McRae, Bates-Diop and even Dozier - Malone has got a ton of depth past the nine players named above.

and I mostly believe in that roster with the notes from above.

Ahh C'mon WY, this team will get swept in the playoffs, other than Jokic it doesn't have ONE player of Coeur's favorite players on it. Seeing what Wiggins and AG, just two of the superstars he suggested we trade for that are leading their teams to...well, what could've been...or might have been...or

Nugs won’t get swept first round. And clippers not good enough to sweep either


Yeah i named specific guys that could have been the missing 3rd or 4th guys. Better than believing that Gary Harris and Millsap are those guys on a playoff winning team.



This will be an exciting finish to the regular season. Nugs are loaded. Can anyone pass clippers and get into 3 seed? Then it’s wcf

It seems you are of the belief outscoring the opponents is the only way to win, I believe defense wins in the playoffs. We have scoring in Jokic, Murray, MPJ, Barton, Morris and even McRae. I'm trusting Harris, Millsap, Plumlee and perhaps KDB can provide the defense to help us to the WCF

[THE J0KER]

Coeur is not right and right at the same time.

This team is clearly better for playoff purposes than last season, but unfortunately most probably NOT ENOUGH better, because 2020 Clippers is a way stronger team than 2019 Portland.

Grant and MPJ are big additions
Murray20 > Murray19
Barton20 >> Barton19
Morris was in a bad slump during PO
Only Beasley will be missed

But Kawhi>Lillard, PG>McC, Harrell>Kanter, Lou>... to win SF series vs healthy Clippers we need homecourt advantage and 30+ mpg from miraculously TOP30-improved MPJ, which would be really miraculous.

[NuggetsWY]

Center - Nuggets should be more than adequate for a playoff run - Jokic is all you need to say.

PF - Millsap is one of the best PFs in the league - especially if you look at both ends of the court. He's not going to be the #3 scorer but it's the entire game he brings. Grant brings an athletic & energetic game and at his best, he can stretch the floor better than Millsap and play solid defense.

SF - Barton is having a great season and Craig brings some defense with occasional scoring. Bates-Diop, if Malone can find a way to include him, can bring some solid defense and scoring. In Minnesota, he was playing 17 mpg and scoring around 7 ppg. He can help.

SG - This is our biggest question mark IMO. Harris brings the defense but seems to have lost his shot and isn't heading to the hoop much either. Malone can always slide Barton here, it's his natural slot anyway. Plus Murray and Morris can both play SG and Dozier can probably play here as well, if injuries pile up.

PG - If Murray can be consistent, no other PG needs to play much. He can certainly play a lot of minutes in the playoffs when the games are spaced out. Plus we have Morris who isn't flashy but could start on quite a few teams. You can't ask for more than that. Dozier can play if injuries show up.

Porter - I did not mention him in the above. But he just might be the most important piece. Please notice I did not say most important player. Coeur has been focused on a third scorer and as The Joker said, he's correct - we need a solid third scorer. Porter can shoot threes and create his own shot one-on-one. If he is given the chance, he could be that third scorer and he brings effort, if not experience on defense.

Jokic + Murray + Porter could score 75+ ppg and while that might be a dream, they could carry the Nuggets all the way - IF everything works out right.

In my opinion, this is probably the year before the Nuggets are ready to contend for a title, but it isn't out of reach this year.

[Coeur]

Ahh C'mon WY, this team will get swept in the playoffs, other than Jokic it doesn't have ONE player of Coeur's favorite players on it. Seeing what Wiggins and AG, just two of the superstars he suggested we trade for that are leading their teams to...well, what could've been...or might have been...or

Nugs won’t get swept first round. And clippers not good enough to sweep either


Yeah i named specific guys that could have been the missing 3rd or 4th guys. Better than believing that Gary Harris and Millsap are those guys on a playoff winning team.



This will be an exciting finish to the regular season. Nugs are loaded. Can anyone pass clippers and get into 3 seed? Then it’s wcf

It seems you are of the belief outscoring the opponents is the only way to win,

Yes. It’s not a belief. It’s a fact


Theory of defense is separate. The shortcomings in the playoffs were not defensive. the Nugs shortcomings in the playoffs were Harris and Millsap offensively. They couldn’t finish easy baskets or create offense.


No I’m not saying defense doesn’t matter. Last year against the blazers the Nugs bet on defense and came up short on offense. Does Lillard and cJ going nuts mean the team was weak defensively? Or does Harris, Millsap, and TC not providing offense mean more?


Blazers scored more points in 4 of the games.

[Coeur]

Clippers are not a team the Nugs can’t beat.

This season isn’t a next step in development for the Nugs. This is just another go round without taking a step. That’s because ownership has an easy out with a great regular season being “good enough”. And the payroll doesn’t balloon and nobody questions ownership or claims they cheaped out. They gave this board what they wanted.


We do keep seeing that you guys catch on. Just way too late. I think you guys will have interesting conversation of what Denver could do next offseason to become legit contenders. And then yes maybe you’ll notice how much ammunition the Nugs has to make those moves a year ago and how little is left.

[skywalker33]

Nugs won’t get swept first round. And clippers not good enough to sweep either


Yeah i named specific guys that could have been the missing 3rd or 4th guys. Better than believing that Gary Harris and Millsap are those guys on a playoff winning team.



This will be an exciting finish to the regular season. Nugs are loaded. Can anyone pass clippers and get into 3 seed? Then it’s wcf

It seems you are of the belief outscoring the opponents is the only way to win,

Yes. It’s not a belief. It’s a fact


Theory of defense is separate. The shortcomings in the playoffs were not defensive. the Nugs shortcomings in the playoffs were Harris and Millsap offensively. They couldn’t finish easy baskets or create offense.


No I’m not saying defense doesn’t matter. Last year against the blazers the Nugs bet on defense and came up short on offense. Does Lillard and cJ going nuts mean the team was weak defensively? Or does Harris, Millsap, and TC not providing offense mean more?


Blazers scored more points in 4 of the games.

Your arrogance is only exceeded by your tunnel vision !

If the Nuggets played as good of defense on McCollum as they did on Lillard, wouldn’t have gone to 7 games, POR doesn’t really have anyone else

[Coeur]

It seems you are of the belief outscoring the opponents is the only way to win,

Yes. It’s not a belief. It’s a fact


Theory of defense is separate. The shortcomings in the playoffs were not defensive. the Nugs shortcomings in the playoffs were Harris and Millsap offensively. They couldn’t finish easy baskets or create offense.


No I’m not saying defense doesn’t matter. Last year against the blazers the Nugs bet on defense and came up short on offense. Does Lillard and cJ going nuts mean the team was weak defensively? Or does Harris, Millsap, and TC not providing offense mean more?


Blazers scored more points in 4 of the games.

Your arrogance is only exceeded by your tunnel vision !

If the Nuggets played as good of defense on McCollum as they did on Lillard, wouldn’t have gone to 7 games, POR doesn’t really have anyone else

TC covered Lillard

Gary Harris got killed by CJ


You guys fought tooth and nail all offseason for the need for Gary Harris. You’re the one with tunnel vision because you have to see something again to believe it. I bet this playoffs you’ll discover the shortcomings of the Nugs will be Gary Harris and Millsap/Barton again. But notice it for the first time ?


Yeah my team would be way better in playoff basketball
Yeah I’d rather see

Murray
Wiggins
mPJ
Gordon
Jokic


Brandon Clarke was my perfect future Nug in last years draft. Wiggins for me I watched a lot more of when you guys blasted me for saying you wouldn’t go Pick 10 for Clarke and Wiggins AND Covington for any combination of Harris, Barton, millsap



You guys thought it was best to go into a season 11-13 deep of nba starter/rotation pieces. I called it a huge value dump.


You guys fought for Harris and Beasley value so hard. Called them under valued. I went for bogdan bog and Wiggins. Who cares who was right.



Anyone fooled by a top 2-3 seed and close to or reg season record wins will also be fooled by watching a Max salary slot in Millsap expire. Watch the warriors handle Wiggins salary and how Nugs handle Harris and Barton. Nugs replace their max slot with Gary plus Barton. So instead of the Nugs go and get a third guy for Jokic and Murray they’ll just say don’t need to. Got Gary and thriller

[Coeur]

torrey Craig is so close to equal of Gary Harris that the salary difference makes TC crazy valuable


I’d step TC and porter into the starting lineup now that they’ve failed to trade Harris/Barton/Millsap. Maybe even grant as well in hopes of a S&t.


Traded a 1st for a guy to hold back?