RealGM

Posted: **Thu Jan 3, 2008 10:07 pm**

http://www.basketballprospectus.com/art ... ticleid=80

Just thought this article would make for interesting reading for a lot of people here. Here is a snippet- the whole thing is worth reading.

The Nuggets have built their defense in unorthodox fashion. As observed by Dan Rosenbaum in an interesting recent Boston Globe story on the NBA's improved tracking of statistics, the Nuggets have few players known for their defense beyond Camby. Nonetheless, Denver leads the league in both steals (9. and blocks (6. per game. Those numbers are inflated slightly by the team's fast pace, but on a per-possession basis the Nuggets rank second in both categories. This combination is pretty rare; in terms of per-game numbers, just Atlanta and Houston join Denver in the top 10 in both blocks and steals.

On top of that, the Nuggets also have the even more unusual ability to get steals and blocks without committing fouls in the process. The propensity to take risks and foul to generate a steal or block a shot is a big reason why those two stats aren't always positive defensive indicators (though at the player level, as apparently at the team level, the combination of both steals and blocks is very often a good sign of an impact defender).

Denver gets steals, per-possession, at a rate that is 19.9% better than league average. Dating back to 1977-78, there have been 34 NBA teams that have stolen the ball at least that well relative to their league. Just eight of them were above-average in terms of keeping opponents off the free-throw line, which the Nuggets do 5.2% better than league average. Surprisingly, a strong majority of the 72 teams that have blocked shots more frequently than the Nuggets do relative to league average (28.0% better) have been above-average at avoiding free throws, but nobody has combined all three skills quite like Denver has this year. What the Nuggets are doing on defense, then, can be said to be relatively unprecedented.

Posted: **Thu Jan 3, 2008 10:18 pm**

steals and blocks don't usually mean good defense.

a player like bruce bowen averages few steals and blocks but is the best perimeter defender in the league.

defense is plain and simple staying between the ball and the basket.

I've watched the last four nugget games in depth...and the nuggets are a pretty bad defense team.

the only thing we have is camby swatting shots in the middle (although his man-to-man defense is horrendous) and anthony carter on the perimeter.

other than that...all of our defenders are either lazy or just unaware.

when we play man to man...team's set screens at the top of the key. karl tells the nuggets to go UNDER the screens and we end up giving wide open perimeter jumpers.

when we play zone...our guys (especially melo) DON'T WATCH the people in their zone...only the ball. that also makes us give up more wide open perimeter jumpers.

we have times where we can turn our defense on and make consecutive stops. melo (widely known as a poor defender) has times where he can turn on his defense and force his opponent into a bad shot.

but the majority of the time we play D+ defense.

NOT TO MENTION we are manufacturing our oppoents offense with our TURNOVERS. opponents are starting to run better against our defense because of our numerous offensive turnovers.

poor coaching is basically to blame for all of this...

Posted: **Thu Jan 3, 2008 10:28 pm**

The steals and blocks work for the fast break.....but yeah, the offensive turnovers have to stop to cash in on those efforts, otherwise it's just so much running up and down the floor and man that can get tiring unless we're watching good defense on both ends.

Posted: **Thu Jan 3, 2008 10:47 pm**

but the majority of the time we play D+ defense.

The Defense may not look good, and the mistakes may stick out in your mind, but in the stat that matters (points per possession), the Nuggets are the 2nd team in the NBA. That is A+ defense.

It is the offense where this team fails. 15th in the NBA. For a team with the offensive fire power it has, that is an F.

Can't blame that on poor coaching though, more like no coaching.

Edit: Looking around, it's dropped to 4th. GS game hurt it a bit, but it was the offense that hurt the team most in that game.

Posted: **Thu Jan 3, 2008 11:19 pm**

Exactly. Points per 100 possesions is really the only indicator of defensive prowess that works in a vacuum. For the bulk of the season, Denver only trailed Boston in this category.

I havent checked in about a week, but Denver was leading the league in steals, blocks, and was in the top 5 in opposing fg% as well.

The misnomer that Denver plays terrible defense is just that, a misnomer.

Posted: **Thu Jan 3, 2008 11:24 pm**

The opp fg% has been going down recently. Rebounds have gone up. Have at it. Plenty of possessions when steals and blocks are also way up there. Just score.

Posted: **Thu Jan 3, 2008 11:27 pm**

Really, our defense wasn't that bad last year either. Even in the playoffs, I think we held our own defensivly against the Spurs.

Our problem was, and still is, that our offense gets stagnent, resulting in several minute long field goal droughts. That, and we don't take care of the basketball at all.

Posted: **Thu Jan 3, 2008 11:47 pm**

denvers_finest wrote:Really, our defense wasn't that bad last year either. Even in the playoffs, I think we held our own defensivly against the Spurs.

Our problem was, and still is, that our offense gets stagnent, resulting in several minute long field goal droughts. That, and we don't take care of the basketball at all.

Maybe that's just it ... it's the illusion of no defense because the other team is simply capitalizing more often..

Posted: **Fri Jan 4, 2008 12:03 am**

It's too hard to pin point exactly what it is because at times our offense looks unstopabble and at time our defense looks unstoppable.

The big difference is this year we've been more of a fourth quater team. Inconsistency is what our team has been struggling with this year, that and Karl might be one of the worst motivating coaches in the league.

Quarter by quarter though The Nuggets defense is kinda funny to look at, how can you give up 47 points twice in one quarter and then less than 20 in the same game

Posted: **Fri Jan 4, 2008 12:36 am**

airchibundo507 wrote:but the majority of the time we play D+ defense.

airchibundo507 wrote:I'm from the ESPN message boards

Posted: **Fri Jan 4, 2008 1:00 am**

The nuggets aren't a top defensive team by any stretch of the imagination....anybody on here that wants to debate that, go right ahead. Im guessing whoever is debating it, looks at stats, doesn't watch the games, and see the nugs players on the perimeter get beat repeatedly. Which in turn inflates cambys blocks....camby rarely gets blocks in a 1 on 1 situation. Do I think the nugs D is a D+?....prolly more like a C or a C+....but a top ten defensive team? That's as funny as Karl's coaching.

Posted: **Fri Jan 4, 2008 1:44 am**

T-33 wrote:It's too hard to pin point exactly what it is because at times our offense looks unstopabble and at time our defense looks unstoppable.

The big difference is this year we've been more of a fourth quater team. Inconsistency is what our team has been struggling with this year, that and Karl might be one of the worst motivating coaches in the league.

Quarter by quarter though The Nuggets defense is kinda funny to look at, how can you give up 47 points twice in one quarter and then less than 20 in the same game

Or just 10 points, as the last quarter at San Antonio showed. Of course, Bobby Jones just made some horrible defensive decisions and showed so much inconsistency he has hardly seen the floor since.

How dare he be part of the crew that shut San Antonio down...

Posted: **Fri Jan 4, 2008 1:50 am**

JRmakes_it_rain wrote:The nuggets aren't a top defensive team by any stretch of the imagination....anybody on here that wants to debate that, go right ahead. Im guessing whoever is debating it, looks at stats, doesn't watch the games, and see the nugs players on the perimeter get beat repeatedly. Which in turn inflates cambys blocks....camby rarely gets blocks in a 1 on 1 situation. Do I think the nugs D is a D+?....prolly more like a C or a C+....but a top ten defensive team? That's as funny as Karl's coaching.

Actually the perimeter defender funnel their cover to the help D in the interior which is very strong. The problem comes when teams are smart and don't fall for the trap of driving to the score. Its rare that somebody just lights up a nuggets defender in a one on one situation. Usually the open shots come from a long pass to the open man on the far side of the defense. Such passes are hard to make and force the offense to be a jumpshooting team. There are only a couple teams that shoot and pass well enough to consistently exploit that weakness. But make no mistake their defensive strategy is a sound one considering the personnel that they have. Staying between your cover and the basket is a great idea in one on one basketball or a pick up game. But on the NBA level, playing for pace, the only way you can do that is rely on your interior help and leak out for the transition basket. Their defense is above average and works.

Its their consistency on the offensive end that needs help. Somebody needs to be the designated third guy to pick up the slack when Melo or AI is off. But its ridiculous for this team to rely on melo getting thirty and AI getting a double double to win. They should be allowed to have okay games and still count on the rest of the team to do what it has to do to win. This starts with playing JR consistently. And the bigs staying healthy or Kleiza getting the greenlight to shoot at will rather than defer to to melo and AI.

Posted: **Fri Jan 4, 2008 1:57 am**

They do need to establish the 3rd scorer, and a 4th and 5th, whether they be from the bench or not. Even back in 05-06 we had Miller 10 points, Kenyon 10 + points, Camby 10 + points, Melo 25 +, Boykins 10 + .... offensively getting points seemed an easier night to night task for the third string.

Posted: **Fri Jan 4, 2008 2:38 am**

corona wrote:-= original quote snipped =-

Posted: **Fri Jan 4, 2008 2:47 am**

Did people saying that denver is a crappy defensive team actually read the article and not just the snippet I posted?

I mean seriously- what other measure do you want of a defense... if the offense has the ball 100 times how many points do they give up? If they give up the points by the 3 pointer, the dunk, or at the freethrow line they all count the same. Show me the end resutls over a ton of posessions- that means far more to me than a couple fans remembering a few plays that stand out.

Posted: **Fri Jan 4, 2008 3:24 am**

Denver D has always been good enough and at times it is elite in spurts but the real shortcomings of this team has always been the inability to maintain their pace and the inability to stop or make the 3 point shot.

Posted: **Fri Jan 4, 2008 4:55 am**

TD is the MAN wrote:Denver D has always been good enough and at times it is elite in spurts but the real shortcomings of this team has always been the inability to maintain their pace and the inability to stop or make the 3 point shot.

apparently you pay more attention to the Nugget's D than some *cough* fans on the Nuggets board.

Posted: **Fri Jan 4, 2008 7:27 pm**

corona wrote:-= original quote snipped =-

last night was a great defensive performance...I admit.

maybe it was because camby, nene, and k-mart were all playing...and we usually don't have all three at the same time.

don't forget that the spurs were without their best two perimeter shooters barry and ginobili to spread that floor for parker to penetrate and duncan to work with more space.

but our defense is inconsistent...and last night is proof of that.

Posted: **Fri Jan 4, 2008 7:55 pm**

Defense was inconsistent? Now that just doesn't make sense.

edit: you mean they don't play that good defensively every night.... ? that's true, but last night the whole game defense was consistent.

the only thing that would have made last night's game more consistent was avoiding fouls in the 2nd quarter - then the score might have been more like 80-65

they're getting better at drawing or calling upon their defense even in stagnant offensive situations

RealGM

analysis of denver's defense

analysis of denver's defense