RealGM

[url]http://www.82games.com/0708/0708DEN.HTM[/url]

Halfway through the season, thought I would throw this up for discussion.

*Kenyon Martin -3.8 +/-; Offense is significantly worse with him on the court (105.7 per100 on, 109.8 per100 off). D is slightly better per 100 with him on the court.

*Najera on the other hand has a +9.1 +/-, 2nd best on the team behind AI; I think this is obvious to all that Najera is key and brings a lot of energy to the team.

*Melo needs to improve his D. Nugs allow 3.6 less points per100 when he is off the court.

*AI is has very good numbers: 10 less points scored per100 when he is off the court and 3.7 more points allowed when he is off the court. That said, AI plays [b]a lot[/b] of minutes, so the team's success is his success in terms of +/-.

*Camby about where you would expect him. Similar to AI in terms of defensive impact.

*JR is flat. Also not surprising.

I've got to imagine those defensive numbers of AI have got to be skewed. there's no way he makes our defense that much better, as much as I like the guy.

There're are a couple things going on w/ AI defensively:

a) he's not as bad as people make him out to be. he closes out better than most of the nuggets (not saying hes a great defender, but this is something the nuggets struggle with that ai generally does well)

b) he does bring energy to the defensive end, and gets a decent amount of steals. energy and steals lead to effect spurts of "scramble" defense.

c) ai's "replacement player" isn't going to be a significantly better defender. its usually JR, and hes not a great defender - more gifted maybe at staying in front of his man, but not a smart team defender. melo's replacement player is probably considered kleiza, diawara or maybe najera - all better defenders. so the team defense generally stays the same when ai/jr switch, but gets better when kleiza/diawara/eddie come in for melo.

d) ai often plays with the "scramble" squad of eddie, linas, jr, najera, etc. they can wreak havoc and bring a lot of energy (see the 2Q last night)

d) the number is probably skewed a little - a lot of ai's "off court" time comes during garbage time, which is pretty unpredictable.