RealGM

And after tonight, it is all downhill from here. We have completed the bitch part of our schedule, and the rest is cake. After assuring ourselves that we will be in first when we leave Utah tonight, regardless of the outcome, the Nuggets are in the driver's seat with the most favorable schedule:

Sun, Mar 8 @ Sacramento
Mon, Mar 9 Houston
Wed, Mar 11 Oklahoma City
Sat, Mar 14 LA Clippers
Mon, Mar 16 New Jersey
Wed, Mar 18 @ Memphis
Fri, Mar 20 Washington
Mon, Mar 23 @ Phoenix
Wed, Mar 25 @ New Orleans
Fri, Mar 27 @ Dallas
Sat, Mar 28 Golden State
Tue, Mar 31 NY Knicks
Thu, Apr 2 Utah
Sat, Apr 4 LA Clippers
Sun, Apr 5 @ Minnesota
Wed, Apr 8 Oklahoma City
Thu, Apr 9 @ LA Lakers
Mon, Apr 13 Sacramento
Wed, Apr 15 @ Portland

Excluding tonight:
11 home games (9 against teams below .500)
8 away
4 b2b's: @Sacto/HOU, @DAL/GS, LAC/@MIN, OKC/@LAL (when the Lakers will already have HC)

Going 10-1 or 9-2 (under 9-2 would be a disaster) at home and just 4-4 on the road (4 wins are not that hard to find: @Sacto, @Memphis, @Minny, and only 1 of @DAL, @NO, @PHX, @POR, @ LAL-who should be resting players) is readily available. I could see us going 15-4 (hard, but doable). But for sake of argument, lets say we finish 53-29 (13-6 to end). That would mean Utah and/or Portland would have to finish 15-5 and 16-5 repspectively to pass us, since both have played 1 less game. So lets look at their schedules.

Utah:
Sun, Mar 8 @ Toronto
Tue, Mar 10 @ Indiana
Wed, Mar 11 @ Atlanta
Sat, Mar 14 @ Miami
Sun, Mar 15 @ Orlando
Tue, Mar 17 Washington
Fri, Mar 20 @ Oklahoma City
Tue, Mar 24 Houston
Wed, Mar 25 @ Phoenix
Sat, Mar 28 Phoenix
Mon, Mar 30 NY Knicks
Tue, Mar 31 @ Portland
Thu, Apr 2 @ Denver
Fri, Apr 3 Minnesota
Sun, Apr 5 @ New Orleans
Wed, Apr 8 @ Dallas
Fri, Apr 10 @ San Antonio
Sat, Apr 11 Golden State
Mon, Apr 13 LA Clippers
Tue, Apr 14 @ LA Lakers

SEVEN b2b's including two 4 games in 5 nights
7 home (they'll go 7-0, 6-1 at worst)
13 away: including a 5 game east coast roadie (3 playoff teams, and Indy who has beaten every good team this year) and a stretch of 5 out of 6 on the road that includes: @POR, @DEN, @NO, @DAL, @SAN. Simply put, if they lose tonight I dont see how catch us; they would have to go 16-4, just to have a chance- AND we'd split the season at worst.
BRUTAL.
If Utah wins the division, they will have more than earned it. As much as I hate the Jazz, that would be extremely impressive and I will tip my hat to them.

Portland:
Sat, Mar 7 Minnesota
Mon, Mar 9 LA Lakers
Wed, Mar 11 Dallas
Fri, Mar 13 New Jersey
Sun, Mar 15 @ Atlanta
Mon, Mar 16 @ Memphis
Wed, Mar 18 @ Indiana
Thu, Mar 19 @ Cleveland 8:00 PM
Sat, Mar 21 @ Milwaukee
Mon, Mar 23 Philadelphia
Thu, Mar 26 Phoenix
Sat, Mar 28 Memphis
Tue, Mar 31 Utah
Fri, Apr 3 @ Oklahoma City
Sun, Apr 5 @ Houston
Tue, Apr 7 @ Memphis
Wed, Apr 8 @ San Antonio
Fri, Apr 10 LA Lakers
Sat, Apr 11 @ LA Clippers
Mon, Apr 13 Oklahoma City
Wed, Apr 15 Denver

4 b2b's, including a 6 games in 9 nights that is part of a 4 games in 5 nights, to finish the season.
11 home: 7 against teams above .500
10 road: including a 4 game and a 5 game road trip.

Their schedule is MUCH easier than Utah's, but a bit tougher than ours. Their biggest problem, is they just aren't good on the road.

Despite the schedules, I see Utah as our main competition. Portland's horrible road record, especially against good teams, will be their undoing. That said, they were smart to keep their core for the future. They are going to be great sooner rather than later.

In summation, we control our own destiny. The path is the easiest, and home heavy. Quite simply, there is NO excuse for anything worse than winning the division.

That said, being a Nuggets fan for over 26 years- I am terrified

Well, the obvious is if we go 50% the rest of the way, we still tie our best in the last few years. If we go 12-8 we slightly improve and with a good playoff showing we can all golf clap. If we go 15-5 (given our recent losses 75% is not as hard as it sounds), we got the goal of 55 wins.

20 win streak would be insane but it is possible.

Yes, that's crazy, but why not grab it? How many more seasons are you all ready set with 40 wins to this point......take advantage now.

Blazer fan here and just one question, you say Portland is a terrible road team (which is true), but I am trying to figure out why you think Utah is good? Even last year WITH a healthy Boozer/Kiralenko team they were still pretty awful on the road. By your logic you guys will win the division. I am just trying to find out why you don't think they suck on the road when they pretty clearly do. They would have lost the last one at Golden State if Ellis and Jackson were playing, but of course they get lucky.

Not that I really care, since I think trying to predict the remainder of a season is nearly impossible (who'd of thunk the Jazz would be .5 games back this time last month?), but the fact your team has been less than consistent the last month should ground your expectations.

Sure, you say they have a favorable schedule, but it's not like the Nuggets weren't coming off a favorable schedule more recently and what did they do with it? 5-5 before the game tonight against the Jazz.

I'm just saying, and the same holds true for Utah & Portland, until your team can prove to play consistent ball, which they haven't since January, I wouldn't get too cocky.

^

enjoy your road trips.

Sure, you say they have a favorable schedule, but it's not like the Nuggets weren't coming off a favorable schedule more recently and what did they do with it? 5-5 before the game tonight against the Jazz.

yes....the back end of an 8 game road trip is favorable, as is coming home to face boston on a b2b, then atlanta, then the lakers. 2 game east roadtrip, then back home to face a division rival who's breathing down your necks. what would be an unfavorable schedule in your eyes? (hint: maybe look at utahs last 20 games)

the average win percentage of our last 10 opponents was .585
6 of the 10 were on the road

the average opponent win percentage of our last 19 opponents is .414
11 of the 19 are at home

is that really a comparison in terms of favorability?

look...denver's had the 2nd most difficult SOS up until this point, this season
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger ... order=true
utah's tied for having the 3rd easiest
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger ... rder=false

that's going to even out over the next 6 weeks. and as it does, we'll see the nuggets hit a winning stride and utah slip some. unless you throw all statistics out the window...
utah 17-24 on the road last year. 11-17 this year. 13 road games remaining
utah 3-11 on 2nd of a b2b....7 back to backs remaining.
denver undefeated against sub .500's at home. 9 of those remaining
jr smith second best +/- on the nuggets and he's finally been given the starting role and more than 25mpg.
...you have to agree to that.

The thing they need to work on is putting together a win package. Not just 5-6 game win streak on easy street, but put together 4 wins out of 7 tough games, because that's what the playoffs are.

We beat the Lakers, we beat the Blazers. Pretty nice. I want to see the same in April, plus not run out of gas after Sactown and OKC. We need to beat Utah in Utah and win one other game. Then repeat and rinse, win 4 out of 7 in each playoff series.

Put together a package that shows the team can consistently win over a span of time without running out of gas or getting flat footed.

The Nuggets will get out of the first round this year.

Tonight's Kings game pretty much proves my point.

No consistency.

For my friend in the beautiful Pacific Northwest:
I didn't mean to imply that Utah was any good on the road. They are not. Last night showed that, they could have kept a cushion that they will desperately need over the next few weeks and lost to a lesser opponent- with a b2b against the miami DWade's and Orlando looming. I dont see them leaving Florida with anything less than 1 loss. 2 would be a 3 game losing streak, and more than likely back to 3rd in the division. I only meant that they were the team I felt was the bigger threat because they are a veteran team, and have been through this before.

For my Utah friends: The whole point of my post was that we had finished our tough stretch and had maintained our division lead. The loss to Sacto was a head-scratcher and very poor timimg. Denver is no doubt in a bit of a slump, but nothing is a better tonic for a slump than playing 5 horrible teams in a row- four of which are a home. Our last month was anything but an easy schedule. We had been on the road for damn near the entire month of february, a bit injured, and have been running on fumes. This nice patch in the schedule should reflect that.

Finally, my op was not to say we had it made, nor knock your perspective teams. Rather, it was an indictment on the Nuggets. We dont have an excuse for not winning the division. It is that simple. If we dont, it will be a huge let down, and the season will be a failure. Utah has a real reason if they fall short- injured all year and a brutal schedule to finish. Portland is making a jump simply by making the playoffs and getting their youth some experience- it is about the future for them/you. Denver's window is now, we have held the lead for the lion's share of the season, and frankly will have no one to blame but themselves if they come up short again.

cavsfan_osiris wrote:The Nuggets will get out of the first round this year.

Only if they win their division. Otherwise, not a chance in hell.

Utah and Portland are going to be tough opponents. Denver ain't lookin' good right now.

I'll take Denver's situation over Utah's right now. Our schedule is cake down the stretch, as we've already gotten through the hard spots. Utah on the other hand, is just getting into theirs. The fact that you guys only have a one game lead at this point in the season is pretty pathetic.


And Portland is not a tough opponent.

J Smitty wrote:I'll take Denver's situation over Utah's right now. Our schedule is cake down the stretch, as we've already gotten through the hard spots. Utah on the other hand, is just getting into theirs. The fact that you guys only have a one game lead at this point in the season is pretty pathetic.

What? Pathetic that we've had major injuries and are now only entering the division race?

Yeah, right. If that's the case, I guess it's pretty pathetic that Nene and Martin have had Injury issues.

Pathetic.

Also, Melo won't obey Karl like a German Shepard. Pathetic.

Yeah, Utah is pathetic.

Pathetic when a team can't keep it together long enough to win a series. Otherwise, it's a great year.

I'm gonna agree with freakazoid, The Utah Jazz are pathetic. i hope they get injured. again. all of them.

Ok so with 10 left, we are basically exactly where we were with 20 left- in first, with the easiest portion of our schedule remaining and the easiest of anyone in our division. After tonight, we will have 6 home games and 3 away. If we beat Dallas tonight- the race for the division should be over for all intensive purposes- barring a horrible collapse. So....

In our last 10, I cant really fathom anything less than 6-4. Even that is hard to really believe (games vs. LAC, NYK, OKC, SACTO, GS, @MIN that's 6 right there) but for argument sake let's say that is how we finish, 52-30.

Portland would have the greatest chance, but since we should be holding the tie-breaker- regardless of what happens in the last game of the year- they will have to finish at an .800 clip to have a chance, or 8-2, with games @HOU, @SA (on a b2b), LAL, DEN and UTAH on their remaining schedule. My reasoning for 8-2 is simple, being a game behind Denver in the L column if they go 7-3, that means in our last 10 we will have to go 5-5 for them to finish a game clear of us, thus winning the division. Looking at our schedule, four potential losses aren't too hard to find (@DAL, @POR, @LAL, UTAH- though I doubt we'l lose ALL of these) but the 5th is. GS on a b2b at home tomorrow is the best chance. And again, we win tonight and their chances get even more bleak.

Utah is intriguing. They have the talent to pass us- and could have the tie-breakers, but their schedule seems just too hard for them to finish 8-3 in their last 11 (PHX, @POR-2nd of a b2b, @DEN front end of a b2b, @NO, @DAL, @SA front end of a b2b, @LAL- 2nd of a b2b & fourth game in 5 nights) though I think they aren't going down without a fight.

The funny thing in all of this is that we all play the Lakers at the very end of the year- and hoping they are resting players for the playoffs. Problem is, they will be fighting with the LeBron's for HC throughout the postseason- so I doubt very much Portland or Denver will benefit from this. Utah could, since they play on the last day of the season and HC could already be decided by then. To be continued....

*on a side note: With SA within reach, how bad would they look if we finished tied in the regular season and we were able to secure HC from them because they rested their whole team back on Feb. 3rd against us? I know noone in the national press would say **** about it, but it could be the advantage we would need to at least push them deep in a series.....

I just don't see any way Utah catches us. In fact, I'd be shocked if Utah didn't finish 8th, maybe even 9th depending on the game with PHO this weekend. Utah is just too terrible on the road (0-13 against teams above .500) to expect them to win more than one (if that) of their remaining 6 roadies, which are all against playoff teams in the west. I'm sure they will take care of business at home, but they could limp into the playoffs with a 5-5 record from here out.

Portland still has a decent chance to catch us, but as MMH mentioned, we hold the tie breaker no matter what happens on the last game of the season. I just don't think they have enough experiance to streak to the end like they are going to need to in order to catch us. Especially since I have us finishing the season on an 8-2 run.

I still like our chances to catch Houston for the third seed. I don't really see us catching SA, they are a vetran team that will do what it takes to close out the season. A win tonight, and were tied with Houston (who I believe holds the tie breaker with us), but they have a much more difficult run to finish the season.

Interesting time of the year, it'd be great to see the Nuggets finish strong and set them selves up for a favorable first round match up.

Even with all that stuff in our favor, I still find it hard to believe that things will actually work out well for us. In the last five years, we've never actually ended up any higher than 6th in the West, no matter how we finished the season. I predict we drop at least two of these gimme home games, lose homecourt advantage, and somehow manage to be playing the Spurs again in round 1. We'll win the first game, then lose the last four....and San Antonio will go on to win the championship.

Yeah, we suck.

I hope you guys get #3 and we get #6.

Rockets fans told us the last two years how they would get past the first round playing us.

You guys should do just as well. You rock.

Me = Owned.

You guys look like you'll get #2 and a legitimate shot at beating anybody.

Meanwhile, we'll get #8 and swept in 3 games. Neither team will show up for game 4. Sad.

SUX2BME.