Best Top 10 in MLB Draft 2005?

randomhero423 · Post #1 » by **randomhero423** » Fri Oct 26, 2007 3:31 am

1. Justin Upton - will be great.
2. Alex Gordon - struggled this year but will improve next year.
3. Jeff Clement - batted .375 when called up.
4. Ryan Zimmerman - 2nd in Rookie of the year voting.
5. Ryan Braun - great rookie year. makings of great hitter.
6. Ricardo Romero - 1 of the busts.
7. Troy Tuliowitziki - very impressive year. should be very good.
8. Wade Townsend - another bust.
9. Mike Pelfrey - as shown signs of being very good. can make full judgement next year.
10. Cameron Maybin - very young. but looks very promising.

compared to other top 10 picks in drafts this seems like the deepest.

randomhero423 · Post #2 » by **randomhero423** » Fri Oct 26, 2007 3:36 am

also in this draft:

12. Jay Bruce. CF for reds. he just won baseball america's player of the year award.

23. Jacob Ellsbury CF for red sox. looks to be johnny damon pt 2.

25. Matt Garza SP Twins . will improve from last year.

A.J. · Post #3 » by **A.J.** » Fri Oct 26, 2007 3:52 am

I wouldnt call Wade Townsend a bust just yet.

TheSheriff · Post #4 » by **TheSheriff** » Fri Oct 26, 2007 6:47 am

That was a pretty loaded draft. The sad thing is, Craig Hansen was considered, by many, to be the most talented pitcher in the draft has been a total bust so far.

trwi7 · Post #5 » by **trwi7** » Fri Oct 26, 2007 7:06 am

Andrew McCutchen was picked 11th and Colby Rasmus was picked 28th as well.

Post #6 » by **Bleeding Green** » Sat Oct 27, 2007 5:43 am

Way too early to call any of them a bust. Such a great draft, though.

Upton and Zimmerman look like future Hall of Famers to me.

Garza, Travis Buck, Clay Buchholz, Jed Lowrie, Mike Bowden, Luke Hochevar, Joey Devine, Micah Owings, Will Inman, Brandon Erbe, Jensen Lewis, Brent Lillibridge, Jonathan Meloan, Austin Jackson, Pedro Alvarez (GRRRRRRR!!), plus plenty of others will probably at least have productive careers to varying degrees.

cb4_89 · Post #7 » by **cb4_89** » Sun Oct 28, 2007 3:29 pm

Thanks a lot ricardi

Post #8 » by **Basketball Jesus** » Sun Oct 28, 2007 11:48 pm

Bleeding Green wrote:Way too early to call any of them anything.

cmaff051 · Post #9 » by **cmaff051** » Sun Oct 28, 2007 11:56 pm

Don't forget about C.J. Henry... he's gonna be a stud.

High 5 · Post #10 » by **High 5** » Mon Oct 29, 2007 12:29 am

Bleeding Green wrote:
Upton and Zimmerman look like future Hall of Famers to me.

Woah broseph.

Post #11 » by **Bleeding Green** » Mon Oct 29, 2007 5:10 am

You don't think so?

Zimmerman is one of the best defensive 3B I've ever seen. He's a Scott Rolen clone--an obvious HOF player if he hadn't just completely fallen apart these last couple years.

He's 22 years old and he has already amassed 20.4 WARP3. Nerd alert.

And Upton is Griffey Jr.

Boston's Future · Post #12 » by **Boston's Future** » Thu Nov 1, 2007 12:02 am

What the hell is a WARP3... use stats that make sense and are real stats used in everyday baseball

Post #13 » by **Bleeding Green** » Thu Nov 1, 2007 12:57 am

Nowak008 · Post #14 » by **Nowak008** » Thu Nov 1, 2007 4:57 am

Just remember guys, Braun > Arod. :wink:

Post #15 » by **Chach** » Thu Nov 1, 2007 8:24 pm

WARP-1
Wins Above Replacement Player, level 1. The number of wins this player contributed, above what a replacement level hitter, fielder, and pitcher would have done, with adjustments only for within the season. It should be noted that a team which is at replacement level in all three of batting, pitching, and fielding will be an extraordinarily bad team, on the order of 20-25 wins in a 162-game season.
WARP is also listed on a player's PECOTA card. The PECOTA WARP listing is designed to correspond to WARP-1, not WARP-2 or WARP-3.

WARP-2
Wins Above Replacement Player, with difficulty added into the mix. One of the factors that goes into league difficulty is whether or not the league uses a DH, which is why recent AL players tend to get a larger boost than their NL counterparts.

WARP-3
WARP-2, expanded to 162 games to compensate for shortened seasons. Initially, I was just going to use (162/season length) as the multiplier, but this seemed to overexpand the very short seasons of the 19th century. I settled on using (162/scheduled games) ** (2/3). So Ross Barnes' 6.2 wins in 1873, a 55 game season, only gets extended to 12.8 WARP, instead of a straight-line adjustment of 18.3.

For most hitters, at least, it is just that simple. Pitchers are treated differently, as we not only look at season length, but the typical number of innings thrown by a top starting pitcher that year (defined by the average IP of the top five in IP). We find it hard to argue that pitchers throwing 300 or more innings a year are suffering some sort of discrimination in the standings due to having shortened seasons. This why Walter Johnson has almost no adjustment between WARP-2 and WARP-3, while his contemporaries Cobb, Speaker, and Collins all gain around 7 or 8 wins.

There you go. As a point of reference, Cal Ripken has a 6.7 WARP-3 by age 22. A-Rod has a 33.9 by age 22 and he was in the majors at 18. mahalo
~Chach~

risktaker91 · Post #16 » by **risktaker91** » Sat Nov 3, 2007 6:26 pm

randomhero423 wrote:1. Justin Upton - will be great.
2. Alex Gordon - struggled this year but will improve next year.
3. Jeff Clement - batted .375 when called up.
4. Ryan Zimmerman - 2nd in Rookie of the year voting.
5. Ryan Braun - great rookie year. makings of great hitter.
6. Ricardo Romero - 1 of the busts.
7. Troy Tuliowitziki - very impressive year. should be very good.
8. Wade Townsend - another bust.
9. Mike Pelfrey - as shown signs of being very good. can make full judgement next year.
10. Cameron Maybin - very young. but looks very promising.

compared to other top 10 picks in drafts this seems like the deepest.

We really need to fire JP...