PECOTA Projected Standings

[Griff83]

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I'm not saying the White Sox will be great, or good. I think PECOTA placed them correctly for the second year in a row, but I look at the AL East, and I don't see Toronto doing much better there. I see them finishing with an equal record, but it will be a 4th place finish.

I think the White Sox will finish 3rd, simply because Minnesota completely stripped away their team (I love the Delmon acquisition for them though). I think the White Sox set themselves up for a better year, but Minny and even KC are setting themselves for a much better future. I think Toronto is in the same position.

so Tampa is going to be better then the Jays this season?

Bluejays are really underrated by some.

[Griff83]

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Care to lose a wager like BleedingGreen did last year?

would you like to make a wager that the Jays will win more games this year then Tampa?

[HCYanks]

It's not so much a shot against the Jays as it is a belief that Tampa's farm talent might finally start paying off this year. I wouldn't guarantee that they're coming in third, but they've got a pretty good shot.

[hermes]

cubs are going to slug .452!!

[Schad]

It's not so much a shot against the Jays as it is a belief that Tampa's farm talent might finally start paying off this year. I wouldn't guarantee that they're coming in third, but they've got a pretty good shot.

That's asking an awful lot of a pitching staff that was the worst in all of baseball a season ago. Kazmir and Shields are an excellent young duo, but Garza and Sonnanstine would need to improve by leaps and bounds for the Rays to crack .500. In two or three seasons, the Rays could be good...but I don't see them being 18-20 games better than last year.

[HCYanks]

Kazmir and Shields are a damn fine top of the rotation pitching duo and Garza could make for a serviceable #3 starter (that is what he's projected to be, right?). If they get anything out of their 4 and 5 starters/Percival/the rest of their pen, then that's the makings of a decent pitching staff. And their lineup should keep improving especially if Longoria lives up to some of the Rookie of the Year hype.

This is all based off of prospects improving so there's no promises, but I don't see 80-82 wins out of them as that ridiculous a possibility.

[Schad]

Kazmir and Shields are a damn fine top of the rotation pitching duo and Garza could make for a serviceable #3 starter (that is what he's projected to be, right?). If they get anything out of their 4 and 5 starters/Percival/the rest of their pen, then that's the makings of a decent pitching staff. And their lineup should keep improving especially if Longoria lives up to some of the Rookie of the Year hype.

This is all based off of prospects improving so there's no promises, but I don't see 80-82 wins out of them as that ridiculous a possibility.

Not ridiculous, but I'm less sold on Garza and the rest of their rotation at this juncture.

He walked 3.7 per 9 innings in his first two seasons, puts far too many guys on base overall (1.54 WHIP last year), and is likely to hand a lot of games to the 'pen in the fifth and sixth inning...he only completed seven innings 3 times in 26 starts. The back of their bullpen is better, but their middle relief will give up runs.

Garza might be a solid #3 guy down the road, but I suspect that he'll get shelled frequently next season. And Edwin Jackson is, frankly, disastrous on the mound.

[Buck You]

Don't post them; pulling stuff off of subscription sites isn't allowed. Same deal as with Insider articles.

You *can* see how PECOTA thinks the standings will end up without a subscription, for what it's worth.

You can only see a couple of them.

You know, if you keep refreshing it shows a different prediction for each team each time?

[HCYanks]

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You can only see a couple of them.

You know, if you keep refreshing it shows a different prediction for each team each time?

hmm. Didn't notice that. When I clicked it picked Detroit and St. Louis so I assumed they picked the 2006 World Series teams for some reason. Thanks though.

Not ridiculous, but I'm less sold on Garza and the rest of their rotation at this juncture.

He walked 3.7 per 9 innings in his first two seasons, puts far too many guys on base overall (1.54 WHIP last year), and is likely to hand a lot of games to the 'pen in the fifth and sixth inning...he only completed seven innings 3 times in 26 starts. The back of their bullpen is better, but their middle relief will give up runs.

Garza might be a solid #3 guy down the road, but I suspect that he'll get shelled frequently next season. And Edwin Jackson is, frankly, disastrous on the mound.

Yeah I am probably giving Garza more credit than he deserves at this point. But holy crap I don't think you can state enough how awful their bullpen was last year. And just by the general year-to-year variance of middle relief pitching I'd bet they'll be better this year. But the fact that they did make moves makes me think their overall pitching won't be as bad this year.

Even if they don't flirt with .500 (I still think there's a decent chance it'll happen), they'll improve their win total by a decent amount next year.

[Schad]

I don't doubt that their relief will be better, largely because it is almost a statistical impossibility that it would be worse. However, they could chop a run off and still be in the bottom third of the league; unless they morph into the top offense in baseball, that's probably at best a 72-75 win team.

Plus, the chances are slim that Pena finishes top three in OPS again this season...last year probably wasn't a fluke, but it's asking a lot of him to maintain those numbers.

[trwi7]

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Not ridiculous, but I'm less sold on Garza and the rest of their rotation at this juncture.

He walked 3.7 per 9 innings in his first two seasons, puts far too many guys on base overall (1.54 WHIP last year), and is likely to hand a lot of games to the 'pen in the fifth and sixth inning...he only completed seven innings 3 times in 26 starts. The back of their bullpen is better, but their middle relief will give up runs.

Garza might be a solid #3 guy down the road, but I suspect that he'll get shelled frequently next season. And Edwin Jackson is, frankly, disastrous on the mound.

He did improve over his first season though. He lowered his ERA from 5.76 to 3.69, his WHIP from 1.70 to 1.54, his H/9 from 11.16 to 10.41, his HR/9 from 1.08 to .87, his BB/9 from 4.14 to 3.47 and raised his K/9 from 6.84 to 7.27.

Yeah he may not be a stud (I tend to disagree with that as he has a great fastball and a killer hook) but he should at least be a good #3 behind Shields and Kazmir. Add in Niemann, Price, Townsend, Jackson, Davis and McGee and they're going to have a lot of options.