The Steroids Era will be the end of the Baseball HOF

[Bleeding Green]

I guess I was wrong. Fenway was a pretty big HR park in the 70s and 80s. Just in the last 10 years, though it's really suppressed HR as you can see by the link above. I don't know how it changes like that, but whatever.

http://retrosheet.org/boxesetc/B/PK_BOS07.htm

[HCYanks]

I don't really understand how they get these but here is the link:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/par ... eason=2007

They compare the home team's production on at home compared to its production on the road... in this case, the home run production. Park factor is a pretty wacky stat and I personally don't like it much because anything concrete shouldn't be varying significantly for no reason year to year. Plus, it's just a lot better to look at an individual batter's hitting tendencies when deciding if playing in a specific ballpark hurts or helps him.

[wigglestrue]

from Baseball Prospectus:

Translated Batting Statistics

Converts the player's batting statistics into a context that is the same for everybody. The major characteristics of the translation are: 1) that the translated EQA should equal the original, all-time adjusted EQA (within some margin for error); 2) that all seasons are expanded to a 162 game schedule; 3) that the statistics are adjusted to a season where an average hitter would have, per 650 PA: 589 AB, 153 H, 31 DB, 3 TP, 19 HR, 56 BB, 5 HBP, 113 SO, 10 SB, 5 CS, 79 R and 75 RBI. His rates would be a .260 batting average, .330 onbase average, .420 slugging average, and a .260 EQA with 76 EQR.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/evansdw01.php

[Bleeding Green]

That translates everything into some fairytale universe, though. 513 HR is in a different context from the one we are all used to.

Barry Bonds hits 908 HR in this universe. Babe Ruth has 1062. 513 doesn't seem so impressive now. I bet if you go through everything there are like 200 players with 500 career HR in that universe.

[wigglestrue]

That translates everything into some fairytale universe, though. 513 HR is in a different context from the one we are all used to.

Barry Bonds hits 908 HR in this universe. Babe Ruth has 1062. 513 doesn't seem so impressive now. I bet if you go through everything there are like 200 players with 500 career HR in that universe.

Ohhhh.

Well, for what it's worth, Jim Rice doesn't reach 500 HR in that universe.

[Bleeding Green]

I wish there were some way to search through there and get a list of the top-50 HR hitters or whatever using their translated stats.

Goofy stuff happens, though. Tris Speaker hits 595 HR (117 in real life), Ty Cobb hits 600 (117 in real life), Honus Wagner hits 615 (101), Sam Crawford hits 675 (97), etc. I mean, c'mon. How am I supposed to take these numbers seriously. There are like 20+ guys who hit about 100 and then translate to like 500-600.

[Basketball Jesus]

Just in the last 10 years, though it's really suppressed HR as you can see by the link above. I don't know how it changes like that, but whatever.

http://retrosheet.org/boxesetc/B/PK_BOS07.htm

Probably because of all the new construction altering the wind patterns above the stadium. Or something like that, I once read.

[brewguru]

It's funny when you get owned, isn't it?

Owned? I'm laughing because you take an arbitrary 10-year period and say, "See? He's good!"

Why didn't you take from 1975-1984? Or 1978-1987? Oh, yeah, that's right, you couldn't make a ridiculous argrument then.

[Ex-hippie]

It happens to not be an arbitrary period in terms of Dewey's career, it's the period after Walt Hriniak helped reshape his swing in 1980. And seriously, you're not impressed by his rankings in that 10 year period, no matter how arbitrary?

But that's not quite my point. Evans' peak 10 years happened to coincide with a decade, putting him on "leaders of the decade" lists. There are few players for whom you can do that; Jack Morris is another. But it distorts the picture to draw arbitrary lines that just happen to capture the best years of one player's career but not every player's career.

That's the problem with Evans, his hitting career can be split into two periods, the pre-Hriniak and post-Hriniak eras. He was a mediocre hitter pre-Hriniak, and a great hitter post-Hriniak.

I count a player's full body of work. Every player had good years and bad years. But let's have some fun and break it down to Evans' career BH (Before Hriniak) and AH (After Hriniak). BH, he had an adjusted OPS+ of 111. "Mediocre," as you say.

Let's say his entire career was AH. His OPS+ for that period was 132, and that increases him from a tie for 190th all-time into a tie for 128th, in the company of Tony Gwynn, Joe Morgan, Al Simmons and the aforementioned Billy Williams. (Plus Rico Carty!) But that would have been over a medium-length career from 1980 to 1991, just barely long enough to be eligible. Standing alone, would that gain HOF entry?

Plus, if you did that, you'd have to chop down his counting stats; his career HR total would be reduced to 275, he would have just barely cracked 1,000 RBI, and he would have had about 1,681. I'd look at that career and say "Hm, if only he could have played at his peak level for 15 years instead of 10, I'd probably vote him in." Like, say, Mattingly.

Kaline is a pretty good comparison, IMO.

Maybe, but Kaline played mostly in a heavy pitchers' era, albeit in a friendly park, and had an OPS+ of 134.

Not better than Whitaker, but since Whitaker should comfortably be in the HOF too, then I'd say having an equal case to Whitaker's is a damn good thing.

Well, I didn't say equal to Whitaker; I said "not better." The one thing on which you and I agree is that Whitaker should comfortably be in. I'd put Evans' candidacy on par with the third basemen I mentioned: Cey, Nettles, Bando. Or Stan Hack or Ken Boyer. (Weird position, that 3B.) Again, Evans is not an awful candidate, and is definitely better than a lot of players with more strident proponents, including Rice, Morris and Andre Dawson. I'm just arguing against the view that there's some kind of disgrace if he doesn't get in. Whittaker not making it past the first ballot -- that's a disgrace. Tim Raines hardly getting any support -- that's a disgrace. Trammell, Blyleven, Santo... all candidates I would rate ahead of Evans.

[Bleeding Green]

Only 33 players have logged more games played than Evans. Putting up a 127 OPS+ over 2606 games is incredible.

The only players who played more games and have as good a career OPS+? Joe Morgan, George Brett, Mel Ott, Tris Speaker, Honus Wagner, Frank Robinson, Reggie Jackson, Eddie Collins, Rafael Palmeiro, Al Kaline, Dave Winfield, Barry Bonds, Willie Mays, Stan Musial, Eddie Murray, Ty Cobb, Rickey Henderson, Hank Aaron and Carl Yastrzemski. Every single one of these players is, will be, or should be a hall of famer without question (although I'll let some of you crazies keep telling yourself that Bonds and Palmeiro aren't Hall of Famers). And I'm a Small Hall of Fame kind of guy.

19 players have played more games and put up a higher OPS+ than Dwight Evans. And he was a premiere defensive RF. It's kind of amazing that he has zero shot of ever making it in. To be that good for that long and get no recognition? Horrible.

Jack Morris was a mediocre pitcher. I wish people would stop even mentioning his name with regards to the HOF. Jamie Moyer is the same exact pitcher, except Moyer was more dominant during his peak. Guaranteed not a single person in the universe would even think of giving Jamie Moyer a vote.

Doug Davis is well on his way to having a Jack Morris type career. Hall of Famer? LOL.