HCYanks wrote:Eh. Yes, you tend to see relievers on the market around the deadline. But more often than not, they're second and third-tier relievers who are pitching well at the time and on short contracts, so the team that gets them can take them on without a lot of obligation. Nathan's a different animal, IMO. On one hand, he's proven himself in the elite corp of RPs that can perform consistently from year to year. On the other hand, he's getting older and a decline should be coming sooner or later. I don't think the Twins get any more value out of him by giving him a contract.
And resigning Nathan is an awfully weak fan gesture after shipping out your top-level ace for a lackluster package. The Twins' lineup is nothing to write home about and their pitching staff could be a disaster, especially with Liriano's comeback looking grim. Even looking beyond that, the average idiot fan can look at Pat Neshek and see a respectable closer. Good as Nathan is, he shouldn't be convincing anybody the Twins can compete with the Indians and Tigers.
Even if you don't buy that you can get more for a reliever during the season than after it's over, you should be able to go along with the idea that you can get more for an elite player when they're under contract than when they're up for re-negotiation (as shown by the Santana saga). Not only that, but it extends the amount of time that they have to make a decision on dealing him, unlike with Santana.
I'm not saying that it's a strong gesture to the fans standing on it's own, but taking it into account, it was quite likely the most expensive off-season in Twins history, making small signings such as Lamb and Everett, and giving out just over $150 million in extensions to Nathan, Cuddyer and Morneau. It didn't do anything to bring back Johan or Torii, but it did show that they may have learned from their past mistakes by inking Nathan before he priced himself out of Minnesota's range, as Hunter and Santana did. They also aren't backed into the corner of having a rapidly approaching deadline to deal him, as they were with Santana.
I don't think they'll deal Nathan this year, as with their young staff it's important to have a strong bullpen in order to avoid undue stress on their arms and bring some semblance of stability. The average idiot fan may be able to see a sure thing future closer in Neshek, but then the average idiot fan would be ignoring his collapse over the last 3 months of the season, when his ERA ballooned (3.97 in July, 5.06 in August, 6.00 in September) and his strikeout rate decreased. The plan at one point may have been to have him step into the role, but his collapse over the last half of the season threw a monkey wrench into that plan. Nathan isn't convincing anyone the Twins will compete, but the pitching staff needs some stability this year. Now isn't the time to start juggling bullpen roles with the rotation so unsettled.
