Red Sox get Gagne??!!?? [Article]

[Chach]

Considering I work 50 plus hours a week in the real world, I apologize for not being able to watch everybody's A ball pitchers with regularity.

Piss and moan all you want about their lukewarm scouting report but BA is the best place for minor league scouting. While it's obviously not the be all, end all (I've certainly disagreed with them on occasion), they generally get things right because they know their ****. Coming off a lackluster season in college with inconsistent secondary stuff, do you really expect a glowing report? mahalo
~Chach~

[cmaff051]

Considering I work 50 plus hours a week in the real world, I apologize for not being able to watch everybody's A ball pitchers with regularity.

Piss and moan all you want about their lukewarm scouting report but BA is the best place for minor league scouting. While it's obviously not the be all, end all (I've certainly disagreed with them on occasion), they generally get things right because they know their ****. Coming off a lackluster season in college with inconsistent secondary stuff, do you really expect a glowing report? mahalo
~Chach~

I expect a glowing report in this year's Baseball America handbook because he has dominated the entire minor leagues with a low 90s fastball, plus curve and plus changeup with very good command.

[Chach]

As you should. I've heard pretty good reports on him this year while in Tampa (especially from Kevin Goldstein).

But you don't have to be a snarky douche to get that point across, simply bring the stats and some reports from reputable people (again, like Goldstein) saying that his stuff appears to improved. mahalo
~Chach~

[cmaff051]

As you should. I've heard pretty good reports on him this year while in Tampa (especially from Kevin Goldstein).

But you don't have to be a snarky douche to get that point across, simply bring the stats and some reports from reputable people (again, like Goldstein) saying that his stuff appears to improved. mahalo
~Chach~

Kennedy is having a good season but I still don't buy it

How can you buy it if you've never seen it?? I'm just wondering here, I would never say I didn't "buy" Justin Masterson's season until I actually saw him live.

[Chach]

Uh, that's what scouting reports, game reports, stats, and intelligent thought is for. Unless you have a lot of free time on your hands, you can't possibly watch all the top prospects in baseball, there's just too much stuff to do during the day. When I get to see a top prospect, I certainly try to take advantage of it (like watching the Futures Game) but those chances don't come up very often. So you have to rely on primary source information, like someone who saw a guy life and gives you an accurate picture of how he pitches/fielded/hit. If you get several of those in a row, you can conclude that he isn't simply lucky or hot. If the guy has a favorable scouting report with a few flaws, those game reports can go along way, as can stats. If a guy is having control issues one year but then reduces his walk rate the next, you can conclude his control has gotten better. Now that doesn't mean his command has improved. For instance, Clay Buchholz has great control but meh command of his fastball. If you look at the stats, you'd say he's Bob Ross up there, painting all over the place in 30 minutes. But game reports tell you that while he isn't walking guys, he's still not getting his fastball exactly where he needs to get it.

You can combine these factor as well as limited actual exposure to a player can easily make up for noting be able to sit down and watch milb.tv every night and see all the great young prospects on the rise. You don't have to devote all your time to the life of a scout to be able to make an accurate judgment on a player, it just takes a it of research and intelligence. mahalo
~Chach~

[nykgeneralmanager]

Indifferent is a better word. I think he's got decent stuff (at least coming into the year, the Yanks may have helped refine his secondary stuff) and pretty good command but he had a bad junior year at USC after a stellar sophomore year and there are rumors floating around about injuries. Unless the Yanks have tightened his curve and improved his change considerably, I don't see him being much more than a back of the end starter. Then again, Yankees fans would probably say the same thing about Bowden and I'd cry bias so it may be my Sox-colored glasses. mahalo
~Chach~

He may have had some injuries his JR year at USC which led him to top out at 87 or 88 mph, maybe it was just a tired arm. The Yanks didn't care, and now he is sitting 90-92 again with ease. His change is certainly a plus pitch, and his curve is about to join it. If you throw two plus secondary pitches with a solid fastball and an okay slider to keep hitters honest, and with pinpoint command of all the pitches, you can have a #2 pitcher. Although I realize Kennedy is more likely to be a #3. Either way, I wouldn't consider dealing him for a 2 month rental who will pitch 20 innings, the same can be said for Horne. Three years ago, the Yankees wouldn't have even second guessed a deal like this and both Kennedy and Horne would have been in the Rangers' rotation next season, but not anymore.

[Chach]

Which is a good point except that by giving up one guy, you can keep the better guy for your rotation and get the best set-up man in baseball for a decent starter who could easily have his spot replaced by signing Zambrano. I love your Moneyball appreciation style of roster construction but you guys have a great offense and if A-Rod leaves next year, that team is going to be HURTIN offensively and I don't think having your rotation lead by two rookies with injury histories (Joba and Hughes, for clarification) is going to mean WS title. mahalo
~Chach~

[Chach]

In fact, I would be VERY worried about Chamberlain next year if he starts in the rotation and actually stays healthy. He would probably be better served getting hurt with something minor like blisters/hamstring pull because that shoulder is going to be in for a hurtin next season. He's at 85 innings now. Pitching out of the pen, he'll put up around 20-25 IP the rest of the season. That puts him at around 110 MAX. He never threw 120 innings in college. If you include his time in Hawaii with his college year, that would break the 120 inning mark just barely. So then you're going to ask a kid who hasn't pitched more than 120 innings to ramp it up to a full major league schedule, like around 200 innings. That's a HUGE jump and one I would be wary of if I were the Yankees. I really wish I could get some concrete information on his shoulder because I'm hearing grumblings about his shoulder being in bad shape to begin with. The Sox completely dropped him off their board last year because of concerns over his shoulder. But even disregarding that, to have an 80 IP jump next year would do a lot of damage to Joba long term so he might be best served to have a month off mid-season because of a hamstring pull. Hughes may be in for the same fate as well. mahalo
~Chach~

[nykgeneralmanager]

Which is a good point except that by giving up one guy, you can keep the better guy for your rotation and get the best set-up man in baseball for a decent starter who could easily have his spot replaced by signing Zambrano. I love your Moneyball appreciation style of roster construction but you guys have a great offense and if A-Rod leaves next year, that team is going to be HURTIN offensively and I don't think having your rotation lead by two rookies with injury histories (Joba and Hughes, for clarification) is going to mean WS title. mahalo
~Chach~

It isn't a matter of giving up the lesser guys, the Yankees simply like them all. Cashman truly envisions a rotation that includes all 4 of Hughes, Joba, Kennedy, and Horne. And if one of Kennedy or Horne don't work out, then so be it, the Yanks would still have a damn good rotation when you include Wang.

And it gets tricky when you start bringing up free agents. Zambrano is an excellent pitcher, but I'm not sure the Yankees care for paying somebody like him $20 million a year. That is another reason for their desire to keep these guys, I doubt they have any intention of offering up $30 mil per to somebody like Santana either. We're not talking about dealing these guys for a 27 year old #2 pitcher, or a 27 year old stud switch hitting 1B. We're talking about an aging, oft-injured, 2 month rental. Regardless of how good he may be down the stretch, the Yankees aren't interested in mortgaging any important piece of their future for that. If Joba didn't exist, maybe the thinking would be different, but they really really expect him to be dominant in the pen.

[nykgeneralmanager]

In fact, I would be VERY worried about Chamberlain next year if he starts in the rotation and actually stays healthy. He would probably be better served getting hurt with something minor like blisters/hamstring pull because that shoulder is going to be in for a hurtin next season. He's at 85 innings now. Pitching out of the pen, he'll put up around 20-25 IP the rest of the season. That puts him at around 110 MAX. He never threw 120 innings in college. If you include his time in Hawaii with his college year, that would break the 120 inning mark just barely. So then you're going to ask a kid who hasn't pitched more than 120 innings to ramp it up to a full major league schedule, like around 200 innings. That's a HUGE jump and one I would be wary of if I were the Yankees. I really wish I could get some concrete information on his shoulder because I'm hearing grumblings about his shoulder being in bad shape to begin with. The Sox completely dropped him off their board last year because of concerns over his shoulder. But even disregarding that, to have an 80 IP jump next year would do a lot of damage to Joba long term so he might be best served to have a month off mid-season because of a hamstring pull. Hughes may be in for the same fate as well. mahalo
~Chach~

Absolutely, both Hughes and Joba will have to be limited next season. The Yankees are very, very aware of the innings increase for these guys. I expect Hughes to pitch some type of winter ball, even if it is just simulated games to get his innings up. I haven't heard ANYTHING about Joba's shoulder, so I don't see any cause for concern there. Maybe there was something around the draft, but he seems to be way past that (if there was anything to begin with).

[Chach]

Even with winter ball, we're talking 130 innings max. 5 IP per start/30 starts in 180 innings. 6 innings is 210 IP. I know the Sox have a general outline of 120/150/180/210 with some wiggle room in between. For them to jump one or potentially two levels in the span of a few months, that's a lot of long term damage being done. It might be best for Joba to take a month's vacation in June and Hughes to take it in July. mahalo
~Chach~

[nykgeneralmanager]

Even with winter ball, we're talking 130 innings max. 5 IP per start/30 starts in 180 innings. 6 innings is 210 IP. I know the Sox have a general outline of 120/150/180/210 with some wiggle room in between. For them to jump one or potentially two levels in the span of a few months, that's a lot of long term damage being done. It might be best for Joba to take a month's vacation in June and Hughes to take it in July. mahalo
~Chach~

Yeah, I'm sure the Yankees will come up with a pretty complicated plan in order to increase the innings at a normal rate as you pointed out. I'm pretty sure the Yankees use a % increase, but I forgot what it was exactly.

[Chach]

Final found a real piece for you nyk

while 2006 sandwich pick Joba Chamberlain, who fell out of the top 10 picks due to serious concerns about the state of his shoulder, threw extremely well in the Hawaiian Winter League.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove0 ... id=2742549

Perhaps Keith Law just misspoke but after reading that and hearing the Sox completely dropped him off their board because of his shoulder, I personally worry about it. mahalo
~Chach~

[nykgeneralmanager]

Final found a real piece for you nyk

while 2006 sandwich pick Joba Chamberlain, who fell out of the top 10 picks due to serious concerns about the state of his shoulder, threw extremely well in the Hawaiian Winter League.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove0 ... id=2742549

Perhaps Keith Law just misspoke but after reading that and hearing the Sox completely dropped him off their board because of his shoulder, I personally worry about it. mahalo
~Chach~

Well we're over a full year removed from the draft and the Yankees haven't expressed any concern on any level. If they were concerned at all, they wouldn't be switching him from starter to reliever and back to starter, they would play it much safer. We're talking about an organization that already plays it safe as it is.

I know Keith Law wouldn't make that up, but I take what he says with a grain of salt. In a chat of his about two weeks ago he was asked if he has changed his stance on Ian Kennedy, and he replied with saying that he didn't like what he saw TWO YEARS AGO when Kennedy pitched for team USA. It's ridiculous that he would still base his opinion off of that. But I suppose that is why he writes about what scouts say, and isn't a scout. I just wish these guys tried to see these pitchers in person before absolutely hating on them. Kennedy is so much better than he was his junior year at USC.

[Chach]

He's also the guy who said he has second hand reports that Clay has a mediocre fastball that sits in the high 80s, low 90s and won't break from average fastball mantra. So I agree with you there. That stuff about Kennedy is garbage.

All I know is that Law came out and said his shoulder scared some teams and the Sox stayed completely away from him because of the shoulder. If I come upon any more info on his shoulder, I'll let you know. mahalo
~Chach~

[nykgeneralmanager]

He's also the guy who said he has second hand reports that Clay has a mediocre fastball that sits in the high 80s, low 90s and won't break from average fastball mantra. So I agree with you there. That stuff about Kennedy is garbage.

All I know is that Law came out and said his shoulder scared some teams and the Sox stayed completely away from him because of the shoulder. If I come upon any more info on his shoulder, I'll let you know. mahalo
~Chach~

Alright thanks, because I'm curious. As you would expect I frequent a lot of Yankee websites and know of nothing that would cause serious concern. Maybe around draft time there were rumors of something, but nothing right now.

[Chach]

There's always rumors at draft time. I feel like an asshat passing off circumstantial evidence and second hand sources because I usually expect better than that. I also really like both Joba and Hughes so I'd rather them not have career threatening injuries. mahalo
~Chach~