Will There Ever Be Another 300 Game Winner?

[Boston's Future]

Tom Glavine is the 23rd and could be the very last pitcher to ever win 300 games. Randy Johnson is close at 284, but his back is so messed up its gonna be hard for him to get 16 more wins. After him Mike Mussina is at like 245, Pedro at around 200 and Curt Schilling around 220. None of these guys will reach it. They way baseball is played today, a lot of things have to go right for pitchers to get wins. Bullpens play a just as important role in getting a pitcher a win as the actual starter himself. Pitchers don't finish out games any more, 7 innings is usually as deep they will go on average. Then the pitchers have to pray that the set up men and closers can preserve the game. A pitcher has to have a lot of variables go right over a career to get 300 wins, mainly being on a good team so that he will get plenty of good run support and a bullpen that doesn't blow games. Also health is a huge factor. Tom Glavine never made less than 25 starts a season his entire career. Thats pretty good. I say there will be another 300 game winner, but not for another 15 to 30 years. Guys like Josh Beckett Johan Santana could get there, but its hard to tell. I'm thinking that a pitcher in the minor leagues right now who will start his pro career at around 22 or 23 will get to 300 wins. Which means its another 20 + years before we see a 300 game winner again.

[Basketball Jesus]

I think that, with the advances made in understanding and treating injuries as well as how to properly develop pitchers to shoulder larger workloads, you

[nykgeneralmanager]

I think at some point there will be guys who just remain healthy and pitch until they're 45, that's really all it takes. If a pitcher can get in the majors for 22 or 23 years they can average less than 14 wins a season and reach 300. Its more of a health issue than anything else.

Just looking at some guys who may have a chance...
C.C. Sabathia: 95 wins and just turned 27 years old. If a guy like him can pitch until he is 42 and average 13 wins a season, he's got it. And if he averages lets just say 16 wins a season he can get there by age 39.

Carlos Zambrano just turned 26 and has 78 wins, so he is in a similar boat as Sabathia. If he averaged 15 wins a season for the rest of his career, he would get to 300 by the time he is 40 or 41.

If Dontrelle gets out of Florida, he may be a candidate down the road. He's already got 65 wins and is only 25 (imagine if he didn't play in Florida the last 5 years).

Jeremy Bonderman is only 24 years old and has 55 wins, plus he is on a pretty good team which bodes well for the future. He can average 14 wins a season and pitch until he is 41 then he would have it too.

What these pitchers will need most is a couple of 18-22 win seasons to give them some breathing room in case they do face injuries in a season or two down the road. And since almost no pitcher goes through their careers unscathed, they will have to pitch until they are 42-44 years of age.

[lpsevier]

Oswalt needs to average 14.69 wins to do it by age 42.

Ouch.

[34Celtic]

That isn't unreasonable for Oswalt. The two names I was going to bring up when I read the topic were Sabathia and Oswalt.

[backer55]

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I think Yes. Even with todays pitch count limits and pitcher management systems, 5 good innings, a lead in the game, you can be pulled and still get the win.

The Giants have two potential kids right now that i believe have a shot. Cain and lincecum both are that good. Now the hard part, the Giants team as a whole have to find some quality young position players that along with their young pitching staff, will be competitive and score enough runs to give these two youngsters a chance at the kind of record[s] that they deserve.
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[lpsevier]

Cain has three wins this year. I'd would be willing to bet that not one guy who has 300+ wins has ever had a non rookie year in which he only had three wins up to this point.

[backer55]

Cain has three wins this year. I'd would be willing to bet that not one guy who has 300+ wins has ever had a non rookie year in which he only had three wins up to this point.

Good point. Sad to say that his record is the teams fault, not his. He should have at least 10 wins maybe more. My thoughts are that he has the potential to win 15-20 games a year for a long time "if" he has a good team behind him.

What this says about this years Giants team is not easy for me...

[youngLion]

I voted yes. The baseball climate isn't entirely different from what it was when Maddux and Glavine started their careers. I've got to think somebody with consistent talent will come along on a team good enough to be decently competitive for long enough for it to happen.

CC has a look at it.

[CB4_Toronto_Raptors]

Oswalt needs to average 14.69 wins to do it by age 42.

Ouch.

Roy Halladay needs to average 16 wins to do it by age 42

[risktaker91]

Come on Doc...

[nykgeneralmanager]

Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain will be the next two to do it. And look out Cy Young, they're coming for you too.

EDIT: Before I get 20 replies calling me an idiot homer, let me just stick the word "sarcasm" in this post.

[randomhero423]

king felix. only 21. although not a lot of W's now. he'll get 'em sooner rather then later...

him, CC, big z i think can all do it.

[Rodanlee]

it's amazing to think about the longevity and consistency needed to reach 300 wins.... that's averaging 20 wins over 15 seasons... very rarely in mlb does a sp make it ten seasons.... absolutely incredible

[dbodner]

If Cole Hamels' bullpen didn't blow him 4 wins already this year, he'd be looking at a possible 20 win season at age 23 (Glavine didn't win more than 13 games in a season until he was 25). as it stands, he picked up his 22nd career win yesterday in only 47 starts. That (.468) is a very good ratio of wins per start, glavine had .455 for his career. It Cole can average 30 starts per year (you'd typically get more, but factoring in a small amount of injuries), that's 14 wins/year, and he'd be at 300 by the time he's 41. That would be a little easier for him, since he's a lefty who relies primarily on his changeup.

For any of these young pitchers, the key is and always will be health.