Let's take an early look at CY and MVP races

Dirty Water · Post #1 » by **Dirty Water** » Mon May 31, 2010 9:53 am

Ok, so we are now officially two months in the season. What a ridiculous season it's been so far. We already have 3 no-no's including 2 perfectos. We've seen walk off grand slams, where both teams get hurt... A Triple Crown threat who needs to log more games to be considered.

Anyway, here's my Top 5 in each league with MVP and Cy Young. Any opinions? It's hard to see all the players play, so let's hear maybe some darkhorses that we should keep an eye on.

AL Cy Young
1. Jon Lester
2. Phil Hughes
3. Jeff Neimann
4. David Price
5. Clay Buchholz

NL Cy Young
1. Ubaldo Jiminez (9-1, 0.88 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, .176 BAA in COORS FIELD? ARE YOU KIDDING ME?)
2. Roy Halladay
3. Adam Wainwright
4. Carlos Silva
5. Tim Lincecum

Santana, Oswalt, Cain also having good seasons thus far.

AL MVP
1. Justin Morneau
2. Miguel Cabrera
3. Robinson Cano
4. Vladimir Guerrero (who would have thought?)
5. Evan Longoria

Guys like Youkilis, A-Rod will be in the mix in September I think too. Darkhorse: Billy Butler (if royals didn't suck)

NL MVP
1. Albert Pujols (Almost two weeks without an RBI or w/e it was and he is still my #1. Says a lot.)
2. Joey Votto
3. Andre Either (Needs to get healthy)
4. Jason Heyward
5. Ryan Braun

Casey McGehee looks great. Wouldn't put it past guys like Chase Utley, Ryan Howard or Troy Tulowitzki to be there in the end.

Dirty Water · Post #2 » by **Dirty Water** » Mon May 31, 2010 9:57 am

I forgot Jose Bautista and old friend David Ortiz in the AL. These guys are on my fantasy team going bonkers.... don't know how long it will last though.

bigboy1234 · Post #3 » by **bigboy1234** » Mon May 31, 2010 10:29 am

Carlos Silva? Yuck.

NL CY Young is Ubaldo and Roy 1 and 2, Halladay 1 if you like defense independent stats more. Then 3 and 4 are switchable between J. Johnson and Wainwright.

The AL MVP and best positional player in baseball so far is clearly Justin Morneau. Not sure how anyone could think Vlad is having a better year then Longoria though...

NL MVP and AL CY could go anywhere. Utley is already arguably having a better season then any of the guys you listed under the NL MVP.

Dirty Water · Post #4 » by **Dirty Water** » Mon May 31, 2010 2:58 pm

Carlos Silva is 7-0 with a 3.12 ERA, 1.10 WHIP. Been pitching pretty good, admittedly I haven't seen him pitch this year though. Utley is only batting .277, usually MVPs have to hit about .300 unless there is some serious pop. I wouldn't count out seeing his average rise though, that's why I listed him out of the top 5 as a possible second half darkhorse.

Post #5 » by **Schad** » Mon May 31, 2010 8:04 pm

As bigboy stated, the AL Cy is a complete tossup at the moment...in addition to those guys, you have Marcum (2.59 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 158 ERA+), Jered Weaver (3.01 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 142 ERA+ and excellent peripherals), and Doug Fister (2.03 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 202 ERA+) and Matt Garza (2.97 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 144 ERA+) out of the gate well, and with 20+ starts apiece remaining, it could easily end up being none of the above.

bigboy1234 · Post #6 » by **bigboy1234** » Mon May 31, 2010 10:44 pm

Carlos Silva has 7 wins because his team scores on average 9.64 runs every time he starts. No way he's better then even Cardinal rookie Jaime Garcia. (Although as I type this Garcia might have hurt himself running just now.)

Your judging him on his batting average? Great defensive player with said "pop."

Avenger · Post #7 » by **Avenger** » Mon May 31, 2010 10:45 pm

Clay Buckholz isn't that good, his K/BB, xFIP, WHIP are identical to last year, he's just getting really lucky with his HR/FB ratio which is at 5.7% this year compared to over 15 in the previous two years. I don;t know how you have Jon Lester number 1 and leave out Ricky Romero all together, he's putting up better numbers across the board.

The good doctor out in Philly has also pitched better team than Ubaldo Jiminez, who's getting a bit lucky with his HR/FB and LOB%

bigboy1234 · Post #8 » by **bigboy1234** » Mon May 31, 2010 10:52 pm

I wouldn't use xFIP for Cy Young voting, as it's a predictive stat, the fact is he did allow those homeruns. Most likely he will regress there, but if he doesn't you can't hold it against him for a season award.

High 5 · Post #9 » by **High 5** » Mon May 31, 2010 11:18 pm

bigboy1234 wrote:Utley is already arguably having a better season then any of the guys you listed under the NL MVP.

How? Are you using some advanced MVP stat? Because on the surface I don't see any argument for him at this point.

bigboy1234 · Post #10 » by **bigboy1234** » Mon May 31, 2010 11:31 pm

Not really anything advanced but it's not hard to tell he's a great defensive player and is a top 10 offensive player in the NL. Ethier has been the best hitter in the NL, but he plays a corner outfield spot and there is more to baseball then just hitting. There is an argument for at least a few different players for NL MVP right now and I'm not sure who I'd pick but Utley would definitely be in the conversation. It most likely won't be this jumbled at the end of the season as players start to regress more to their true talent level.

Avenger · Post #11 » by **Avenger** » Tue Jun 1, 2010 12:01 am

Chase Utley does lead the NL in WAR, well ahead of 2nd place Jason Hayword, WAR can obviously be unreliable in a small sample size though.

High 5 · Post #12 » by **High 5** » Tue Jun 1, 2010 3:06 am

bigboy1234 wrote:Not really anything advanced but it's not hard to tell he's a great defensive player and is a top 10 offensive player in the NL. Ethier has been the best hitter in the NL, but he plays a corner outfield spot and there is more to baseball then just hitting. There is an argument for at least a few different players for NL MVP right now and I'm not sure who I'd pick but Utley would definitely be in the conversation. It most likely won't be this jumbled at the end of the season as players start to regress more to their true talent level.

Well obviously there's more to baseball than hitting, but defense only really comes up when you're a flashy SS or CF. That's not going to get him the award over someone who puts up better numbers. And at this point the voters wouldn't be wrong for it. He needs to get his numbers up (which he could certainly do) before I put him with guys like Pujols, Ethier, Braun, and Heyward.

bigboy1234 · Post #13 » by **bigboy1234** » Tue Jun 1, 2010 3:38 am

Wait are we trying to say who is deserving or what? Who cares if your flashy or any of that crap. He's been one of the top 10 offensive players in the NL this season and he's one of the best defensive players in the game, to say he needs to get his numbers up to be in the conversation for NL MVP to this point is plain ludicrous of a statement. Guys like Pujols, Heyward, Willingham, Braun have only been a couple runs better on offense this season aka not enough to make up for Utley being worth so much more in the field. If you want to make it a pure hitting award like you seem to want there is only one choice to this point and that is Andre Ethier.

Dr Positivity · Post #14 » by **Dr Positivity** » Tue Jun 1, 2010 4:30 am

Wow I didn't realize how quickly Ortiz got his numbers back up. .929 OPS overall despite his horrible start? Impressive. Papi's back... for now.

High 5 · Post #15 » by **High 5** » Thu Jun 3, 2010 1:09 am

bigboy1234 wrote:Wait are we trying to say who is deserving or what? Who cares if your flashy or any of that crap. He's been one of the top 10 offensive players in the NL this season and he's one of the best defensive players in the game, to say he needs to get his numbers up to be in the conversation for NL MVP to this point is plain ludicrous of a statement. Guys like Pujols, Heyward, Willingham, Braun have only been a couple runs better on offense this season aka not enough to make up for Utley being worth so much more in the field. If you want to make it a pure hitting award like you seem to want there is only one choice to this point and that is Andre Ethier.

I said his defense won't win him the award and at this point it shouldn't. Meaning I don't think he's deserving. And unfortunately for him he's going the wrong way right now. Along with all of the Phillies.

But it's too early for anyone to be getting upset over this stuff. :lol:

VinnyTheMick · Post #16 » by **VinnyTheMick** » Thu Jun 3, 2010 1:52 pm

Robinson Cano laughs at your best pitcher's feeble attempts to strike him out.

Post #17 » by **GYBE** » Thu Jun 3, 2010 2:52 pm

VinnyTheMick wrote:Robinson Cano laughs at your best pitcher's feeble attempts to strike him out.

Easy choice for AL MVP. He is on a ridiculous tear right now.

Dirty Water · Post #18 » by **Dirty Water** » Thu Jun 3, 2010 3:30 pm

Avenger wrote:Clay Buckholz isn't that good, his K/BB, xFIP, WHIP are identical to last year, he's just getting really lucky with his HR/FB ratio which is at 5.7% this year compared to over 15 in the previous two years. I don;t know how you have Jon Lester number 1 and leave out Ricky Romero all together, he's putting up better numbers across the board.

The good doctor out in Philly has also pitched better team than Ubaldo Jiminez, who's getting a bit lucky with his HR/FB and LOB%

I had Jon Lester winning Cy young before the season started. I haven't seen anything that has made me change my mind. He had his rough April like always (~5.00 ERA) but if you look at his stats in last 8 or 9 starts they are ridiculous. Ricky Romero has pitched extremely well, as well as Shaun Marcum, but I don't see them sustaining that for the whole season.

And of course Jimenez is getting a little lucky. He has a 0.78 ERA for God's sake. You still can't say anyone else deserveds it. I understand the fly ball/ground ball, BA in balls in play stats, but the fact of the matter is you can't take stuff away from pitchers if the stats prove they are getting "lucky". For now, they are getting outs. You can make either case that they will either improve in these areas and get better, or their "luck" will catch up with them and they will be worse.

Dirty Water · Post #19 » by **Dirty Water** » Thu Jun 3, 2010 3:32 pm

And I asked for people to give me their own candidates. If you read my post I'm asking for suggestions so we can all get a consensus going. You don't have to rip into me if you think I'm wrong or missing someone.

VinnyTheMick · Post #20 » by **VinnyTheMick** » Thu Jun 3, 2010 3:57 pm

GYBE wrote:
VinnyTheMick wrote:Robinson Cano laughs at your best pitcher's feeble attempts to strike him out.

Easy choice for AL MVP. He is on a ridiculous tear right now.

It's crazy, especially when you consider this: Tex & Arod have had subpar offensive seasons (by their standards) so they haven't provided much protection for Robbie. Then, Posada went down so Cano hasn't really had protection behind him either. He still is mashing. Plus his defense is ridiculous.