New Baseball Fan Trying to Understand Certain Nuances

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SergiuRoBuc
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New Baseball Fan Trying to Understand Certain Nuances 

Post#1 » by SergiuRoBuc » Tue Jan 3, 2023 9:50 pm

Hi all,

As a lifelong NBA and Soccer fan, I "recently" (within the past 7 or so years) also got into NHL and NFL and now follow all sports on a daily basis. Even more recently though, as in the past few weeks, I have gotten into MLB and it's a very different experience. I've pretty much got it handled with regards to regulations and what makes a good game and all that, I can enjoy watching it on a casual fan level.

What I don't really get is what makes a dominant team and how soon can you form expectations with regards to certain teams. In other sports it's extremely straightforward. In soccer and the NBA, you pretty much know year in and year out who's making the Finals, or at least the semi-finals. It's easy to identify the four strongest teams and usually one of those four will win the title.

Same goes for the NFL, but less so for the NHL, where you play these long 7 game series in the playoffs and that puck can literally go into a net randomly and swing a series. I like how unpredictable hockey can be most of the time, but during crunch time, it's the same as basketball or football - players can easily impose their will on the game.

I'm not sure it works the same in baseball, but maybe I'm wrong. Isn't it less so about will and more so about focus? Like if the Celtics or Avalanche find themselves in a must win Game 7 to advance to the next round, you can bet the house they will at least bring it to their opponents in terms of effort. Looking at last year's MLB playoffs, it felt a bit confusing when also comparing regular season stats and record, at least in the early rounds. Is it harder to win a baseball game when it's the decisive game? Harder to impose your will and simply come out and dominate?

Also, last question, are there generally fewer teams with a real chance to win the World Series than there are teams that can win the NBA title or the Super Bowl? How unpredictable is the MLB on average?

Thanks guys! Would love some insight from all you baseball lifers :)
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Dr Positivity
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Re: New Baseball Fan Trying to Understand Certain Nuances 

Post#2 » by Dr Positivity » Fri Jan 6, 2023 10:49 pm

Not a baseball diehard or anything but to answer your questions as best I can.

Yes I do think as an individual sport there's something missing in terms of the team element and "will" in baseball playoffs. With that said all sports have some emotions involved in high pressure situations. eg. Texas in 2011 was one strike from winning World Series multiple times in game 6 and when they lost, I would say mentally it was less likely they were going to bounce back and win game 7. The Giants that won 3 times in 6 years never with overwhelming talent may have had some magic in the clubhouse.

In regards to playoff upsets if you extrapolate last year NL records to 82 games it would be

Dodgers - 56 Ws (historic season)
Braves/Mets - 51 Ws
Cardinals - 47 Ws
Padres - 45 Ws
Phillies - 44 Ws

The Dodgers losing to the Padres isn't that crazy record season even before considering Padres midseason splash, no more than Suns losing to Mavs. Same with the Phillies run. And the 1st two rounds are 3 games and 5 games.

Imo the MLB, NFL and NHL prioritize parity and the feeling that anyone can win when you get in the playoffs which is a casuals friendly model. The sports themselves are not really more prone to luck it has more to do with things like the salary cap and talent distribution. Hockey isn't about lucky bounces when Canada plays Kazakhstan or Montreal was winning how many Stanley Cups. There is a version of the NBA that could exist where out of the top 6-7 teams they're close enough that the winner is just the one who gets hot from 3, but for a variety of reasons they have held up the stars rule format.

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