Rich Hill-NL CY Young?

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Post#21 » by treyZz » Fri Apr 20, 2007 4:01 am

3-0

0.41 ERA this season.

18Ks.
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Post#22 » by studcrackers » Fri Apr 20, 2007 4:55 am

bleeding green claimed him as a god among mere mortals before the season so he gets all the credit
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Post#23 » by 2poor » Fri Apr 20, 2007 3:31 pm

If you watched him at all at from July on last year, what he's doing now wouldn't be a total shocker.

Definitely a pleasant surprise, but I think many Cubs fans were expecting big things from him this year.
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Post#24 » by bigboy1234 » Fri Apr 20, 2007 3:53 pm

Everyone is going to be shocked when he doesn't finish with an ERA under .5, and it comes around to 3.5 were it should be.
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Post#25 » by 2poor » Fri Apr 20, 2007 4:08 pm

His ERA will stay under 3.
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Post#26 » by bigboy1234 » Fri Apr 20, 2007 4:21 pm

2poor wrote:His ERA will stay under 3.

right...
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Post#27 » by 2poor » Fri Apr 20, 2007 4:28 pm

Was at 2.93 in 80 IP (July-Sept) after he was called up a second time last year, not too farfetched.

Am I supposed to believe he's going to regress?
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Post#28 » by bigboy1234 » Fri Apr 20, 2007 4:38 pm

No, but you're supposed to believe he has a 3.56 xFIP this year and has been pretty damn lucky thus far with his .135 BABIP. He's been one of the 5 luckiest pitchers so far this year. Cubs fans should be happy with anything under a 4 ERA.
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Post#29 » by treyZz » Fri Apr 20, 2007 4:44 pm

2poor wrote:Was at 2.93 in 80 IP (July-Sept) after he was called up a second time last year, not too farfetched.

Am I supposed to believe he's going to regress?


He's a Cardinals fan.. He's just hating.

I think Hill's ERA ends at 2.95-3.15.
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Post#30 » by bigboy1234 » Fri Apr 20, 2007 4:48 pm

treyZz wrote:-= original quote snipped =-



He's a Cardinals fan.. He's just hating.

I think Hill's ERA ends at 2.95-3.15.

Or I actually know something about baseball. Seeing as how I backed up what I said with 2 stats neither of you have heard of.

And what are you a Cubs fan, you must just be "homering".
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Post#31 » by 2poor » Fri Apr 20, 2007 4:53 pm

I know what xFIP is, I just don't care to respond to someone offering nothing to a conversation other than lame-o stat jockeying.

You think you're so cool because you can regurgitate all these stats that you think nobody has heard of. Good for you. Hopefully Billy Beane is browsing these boards so it isn't all for naught.

BTW since you're obviously not an English person, punctuation goes inside the quotes.
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Post#32 » by bigboy1234 » Fri Apr 20, 2007 5:06 pm

2poor wrote:I know what xFIP is, I just don't care to respond to someone offering nothing to a conversation other than lame-o stat jockeying.

You think you're so cool because you can regurgitate all these stats that you think nobody has heard of. Good for you. Hopefully Billy Beane is browsing these boards so it isn't all for naught.

What stats that prove he won't have an ERA under 3? How dare me go against you. I guess you just judge the players on how good they look, not actually facts, but thats all good you judge your way.

I'm done talking about this, but hey I guess we'll see at the end of the year if Mr. Hill has a ERA under 3.
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Post#33 » by kg2005 » Fri Apr 20, 2007 5:16 pm

I'm willing to guess Hill won't be quite as lucky his next few times through the league.
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Post#34 » by 2poor » Fri Apr 20, 2007 5:20 pm

What those stats fail to account for (particularly in this case) are factors that might change a pitcher's approach towards hitters.

2 of Hill's 3 starts have come in chilly and generally miserable weather. The kind of conditions that are not very conducive to home runs. As such, pitchers are more likely to challenge hitters with fastballs, and seeing how far they can hit it. So far only one person has hit it far enough; coincidentally the HR came indoors at MIL. Looking at the HR in question a little further, you'd see that it occurred in the 6th inning and not only broke the shutout, but also broke the perfect game Hill had been throwing up until that point.

Last year he was allowing just over 1 HR per 9 so you could say that it would appear right now that he's improved in that category to start the year (1HR per 9 IP v. 1HR in 22 IP).

I'm sure if you tried, you can find stats on pretty much any player that is going to reflect negatively on said player. Pretty much what you did here, because the more called upon/recognized stats like WHIP, BAA, etc, are all stellar and surely you couldn't try to take potshots at Hill with those.

See this is difference between making observations by observing, and not drawing conclusions based simply on staring at stats and drawing to spin them in a negative light.
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Post#35 » by kg2005 » Fri Apr 20, 2007 5:23 pm

You didn't observe, you rambled. What exactly were you trying to prove with that post?
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Post#36 » by 2poor » Fri Apr 20, 2007 5:52 pm

Are you unaware that pitchers have approaches to games just as much as batters do?

Like, when its 30 degrees, snowing, and generally crappy, they know they can challenge hitters more because of how difficult it is to elevate a ball?

Or that in the bottom of the 6th inning, in a perfect game, that a pitcher up 6 runs is going to be more likely to throw strikes to stay ahead of the batter?

Thats what my point was. That stupid xFIP assumes that X amount of flyballs is going to end up being Y amount of homeruns, without taking into account the fact that environmental factors and other non-statistical entities can influence them one way or the other.

I'm sure Hill know thats on a windy summer day in Wrigley, fly balls should be avoided. Conversely, on a crappy winter-esque type day in April he knows that he can get away with more fly balls.
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Post#37 » by HCYanks » Fri Apr 20, 2007 6:19 pm

No stat can take every little factor in account. That doesn't mean they're absolute nonsense. Research has shown that homerun totals tend to correlate with the number of flyballs a pitcher gives up, with park factor also being very important. xFIP isn't perfect, but on the whole, it's a better judge than subjective viewing by humans.

xFIP wasn't even the only stat Bigboy gave you. He also gave Hill's extraordinarily low BABIP. BABIP's a pretty straightforward stat, and shows that Hill's been pretty damn lucky with the balls hit of him that come into play.

I know there's a cold, distant feeling associated with using statistical analysis on sports. But it doesn't make stats wrong. Unless Hill stays miraculously lucky throughout the season, his ERA will go up eventually.
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Post#38 » by 2poor » Fri Apr 20, 2007 6:27 pm

I know the stats have some credence, my distaste was because its obvious that observations here are being drawn solely by looking at stats, rather than actually watching how the games transpired, what factors might have been involved, and then using stats to back up something you witnessed.

Or maybe if you don't like a certain player or team, you might dig through every statistical category and highlight some of the negative ones to take potshots at the player in question. Seems like a good way to engage conversation, right?
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Post#39 » by Bow2Yao11 » Fri Apr 20, 2007 7:43 pm

Just traded Holliday/Zambrano for Hill/Vlad. Hill better keep it up...
John Wall>>>>>>>>>Ricky Rubio
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Post#40 » by lpsevier » Fri Apr 20, 2007 10:04 pm

bigboy1234 wrote:-= original quote snipped =-


Or I actually know something about baseball. Seeing as how I backed up what I said with 2 stats neither of you have heard of.

And what are you a Cubs fan, you must just be "homering".


Wow dude, that was pretty arrogant.

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