RealGM

5. ANDRUW JONES: 6 percent

Age: 30 | Career HRs: 363 | 2007 HRs: 21 |

Until 2005, Jones was not particularly known for his power. But he hit 26 homers before his 21st birthday, and afterward averaged roughly 35 per season until his breakthrough in '05. His stock is down this season, thanks to that .217 batting average. This probably is just a blip, though; next season he'll hit .260 with 40 homers, and he'll be back on track for the Hall of Fame.

Projected Total: 614

4. RYAN HOWARD: 7 percent

Age: 27 | Career HRs: 114 | 2007 HRs: 32 |

Obviously, Howard's established himself as one of the top young power hitters in the game. The problem here is that he's not particularly young. He's 10 days younger than Adam Dunn, and two months older than Albert Pujols. Which isn't in itself a handicap. What's a handicap is Howard's late start, as he didn't break into the Phillies' lineup until he was 25, in the middle of 2005. This does have a negative impact on his established level -- because 2005 represents one-sixth of that level -- but even if we give him credit for the 16 homers he hit in the minors that season, his chance of hitting 801 homers moves up only three points, to 10 percent. He just got started too late to keep up with all the big-time power hitters who came up when they were 19 or 20, as so many have.

Projected Total: 509

3. ADAM DUNN: 10 percent

Age: 27 | Career HRs: 228 | 2007 HRs: 30 |

Dunn comes out as the No. 3 home-run hitter in the majors, among active players? According to this method, he does. Since Opening Day of 2004, Dunn has hit 156 home runs. Only David Ortiz (161) and Pujols (160) have hit more. So why doesn't Dunn's name come up in Hall of Fame discussions? Because he's a "Three True Outcomes" guy. With Dunn, everything's a homer or a strikeout or a walk, and only one of those (the first one) is appreciated by the cognoscenti. But even if we assume that 500 homers is not a magic number (it's not), and neither is 600 (jury's still out), what about 700? Dunn's established a 24-percent chance of hitting 700 home runs. The key for Dunn always will be his batting average. As long as he can hit .240, he'll have a job. But considering that his career average is just .247, we might reasonably guess there are just too many .220 seasons in Dunn's future.

Projected Total: 578

2. ALBERT PUJOLS: 13 percent

Age: 27 | Career HRs: 274 | 2007 HRs: 24 |

Because of his slow start this season, not to mention his non-appearance in the All-Star Game, it's easy to forget that Pujols is the best non-Bonds hitter in the National League. What's really hurting him here is that slow start. We've got him finishing this season with 35 homers, which would be the fewest of his brilliant career. Pujols simply has to re-establish himself as a consistent 40-homers-per-season hitter. Of course, given his history, he might do that in the next few months.

Projected Total: 585

1. ALEX RODRIGUEZ: 46 percent


Age: 32 | Career HRs: 500 | 2007 HRs: 36 |

The difference between the No. 2 man and the No. 1 says a lot about the No. 1 man. If that doesn't blow you away, there's this: Rodriguez has established a 21-percent chance of hitting 900 home runs -- more than Oh, even -- and a 7-percent chance of hitting 1,000 home runs.

Projected Total: 790

treyZz wrote:Where the F is Griffey? Even though he's 37?

Terrible list.. Andruw Jones sucks right now.

HeelSox wrote:Remember...Pujols had the greatest rookie season in mlb history

HeelSox wrote:Remember...Pujols had the greatest rookie season in mlb history

Black Jesus 1 wrote:So much Braun d-riding in every thread...pathetic.

livestrong4ever wrote:-= original quote snipped =-



Best offensive player since his call up? Being a rookie. Yeah.

livestrong4ever wrote:-= original quote snipped =-



Best offensive player since his call up? Being a rookie. Yeah.

A.J. wrote:-= original quote snipped =-



before Pence got injured

trwi7 wrote:-= original quote snipped =-



He was better than Pence even before Pence got injured.

A.J. wrote:-= original quote snipped =-



no he wasnt.

batting champ of the first half of the seaon in the NL. Until he got injured he fell out the rookie of the year race.

Ill give Braun his props. He is a very special player.

bigboy1234 wrote:Theres only one real candidate to break Barry's record, and as we all know that man is Ryan Braun.