RealGM

http://baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

Thoughts?



p.s. i think you have to have a subscription to BP to view these

So if you think that, why dont you post them?

Don't post them; pulling stuff off of subscription sites isn't allowed. Same deal as with Insider articles.

You *can* see how PECOTA thinks the standings will end up without a subscription, for what it's worth.

HCYanks wrote:Don't post them; pulling stuff off of subscription sites isn't allowed. Same deal as with Insider articles.

true.


the mets are predicted to win the east by 10 games though.

Yeah there's definitely a couple predictions there that go against the consensus conventional wisdom. Yanks over Sox, the Tigers only winning 89 games and being the odd man out of the postseason again, and the Mariners struggling this year. PECOTA has its flaws (particularly when it tries to evaluate players with unique skillsets like Ichiro), but it's generally good at what it does so we'll see if it's right on some of the bolder projections.

I think the Yanks/Sox thing really comes down to Joba versus Clay. Joba somehow racks up a 34.7 VORP (as a reference, Daisuke is projected at 37) meanwhile Clay only projects to rack up 23. I just can't see Joba putting up the numbers he is projecting, especially if he is going to be a starter. Meanwhile Philip Hughes is dog meat compared to him.

My gut tells me that Joba is not going to meet his projection, Clay is going to exceed his, and they are going to end the season pretty even. PECOTA has never liked Clay for some reason. The only two Red Sox projections I don't care for are Schilling and Lester. Schilling's is obviously high and Lester's is way too low. I think he's breaking out this season. I think it's going to be a tight race again this year.

I am not entirely surprised by Detroit's projection, honestly. I actually think they are over-estimating Bonderman's production because I think he's going to get hurt this year. His workload pattern and having elbow/forearm issues at the end of the season makes me think that Tommy John surgery is around the corner. mahalo
~Chach~

I say I agree with the projections. Joba is going to the bullpen IIRC.

HCYanks wrote:Yeah there's definitely a couple predictions there that go against the consensus conventional wisdom. Yanks over Sox, the Tigers only winning 89 games and being the odd man out of the postseason again, and the Mariners struggling this year. PECOTA has its flaws (particularly when it tries to evaluate players with unique skillsets like Ichiro), but it's generally good at what it does so we'll see if it's right on some of the bolder projections.

Is that really against the consensus? I find it impossible to predict the Mariners; I could see them winning 90 games just as easily as winning 50.

If you look at the projections, it was before the Bedard trade. Ichiro, who PECOTA always hates, is replacing Jones, who it liked, and you are adding Bedard to the rotation but losing Sherrill out of the pen. I think they are going to come close to 82ish wins in an updated projection set and that sounds accurate to me. They could win 89 games or win 75. mahalo
~Chach~

Looks like only 5 AL teams above .500?

Yanks, Sox, Blue Jays, DevilDogs, Indians, Tiger, and Angels all win 82 games or more. By my count, that's 7. mahalo
~Chach~

Toronto more wins than the White Sox? Must be counting on AJ Burnett.

nitetrain8603 wrote:Toronto more wins than the White Sox? Must be counting on AJ Burnett.

I could easily see the Jays winning more games then the White Sox.

Griff83 wrote:-= original quote snipped =-



I could easily see the Jays winning more games then the White Sox.

Not with the Yankees and Red Sox in their division. Don't forget the D-Rays. I see them finishing 3rd this year.

I think the Twins will finish 3rd in the division with the White Sox barely beating out KC.

nitetrain8603 wrote:-= original quote snipped =-



Not with the Yankees and Red Sox in their division. Don't forget the D-Rays. I see them finishing 3rd this year.

Pretty sure Toronto finished 11 games ahead of the White Sox last year. That included missing B.J. Ryan almost all year, Burnett being on the DL and Wells sucking.

Honestly, the White Sox suck.

trwi7 wrote:-= original quote snipped =-



Pretty sure Toronto finished 11 games ahead of the White Sox last year. That included missing B.J. Ryan almost all year, Burnett being on the DL and Wells sucking.

Honestly, the White Sox suck.

I'm not saying the White Sox will be great, or good. I think PECOTA placed them correctly for the second year in a row, but I look at the AL East, and I don't see Toronto doing much better there. I see them finishing with an equal record, but it will be a 4th place finish.

I think the White Sox will finish 3rd, simply because Minnesota completely stripped away their team (I love the Delmon acquisition for them though). I think the White Sox set themselves up for a better year, but Minny and even KC are setting themselves for a much better future. I think Toronto is in the same position.

nitetrain8603 wrote:Toronto more wins than the White Sox? Must be counting on AJ Burnett.

The Blue Jays may double the White Sox' win total.

WEFFPIM wrote:-= original quote snipped =-



The Blue Jays may double the White Sox' win total.

Care to lose a wager like BleedingGreen did last year?