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Derek Jeter 4000 hits?
Posted: Thu Aug 20, 2009 10:47 pm
by jumanji
Just turned 35 in June is at about 2700 hits right now and has stated a willingness to DH somewhere down the road. I say definite shot at 4k.
Re: Derek Jeter 4000 hits?
Posted: Thu Aug 20, 2009 10:59 pm
by VinnyTheMick
The way he is hitting, he's definitely got a shot.
Re: Derek Jeter 4000 hits?
Posted: Thu Aug 20, 2009 11:00 pm
by Schad
He'd having to average over 200 hits per season through age 41, or close to 180 every season through age 42. The first scenario would require him to get well over 700 plate appearances a year and hit in the .310-.330 range; the latter, which would require him to hit .280 over 650 appearances, is more doable but still requires him to stay remarkably healthy and productive through for another seven seasons. Neither is particularly likely.
Re: Derek Jeter 4000 hits?
Posted: Fri Aug 21, 2009 12:03 am
by craig01
Unless he played to 45...lol.....not likely happening
Actually, he's already defied the odds of longevity as a middle infielder.
Re: Derek Jeter 4000 hits?
Posted: Fri Aug 21, 2009 1:28 am
by VinnyTheMick
Jeter is sixth in the American League with 80 runs scored, second with 159 hits and fifth in batting average. Among leadoff hitters, he is second in batting average and on-base percentage.
Now 35, Jeter is at a stage in his career where decline is inevitable. But he is instead having one of the best seasons in his career.
Jeter is approaching a significant personal milestone, as he needs only 28 hits to break Lou Gehrig's franchise record of 2,721. Then comes 3,000 hits and beyond. If he stays healthy, Jeter could join Pete Rose and Ty Cobb as the only players in history with 4,000 hits.
"Who knows where he'll end up? He's been so consistent, and health-wise he's in great shape," Girardi said. "Knowing Derek, he'll play as long as he feels he can contribute."
Jeter often jokes with Girardi that he could be a designated hitter for five years once he is finished playing shortstop.
"It's easy, man. You worry about one thing," he said.
So could we see a 40-year-old Jeter as the DH of the Yankees?
"You could see me at short, too," he said.
Jeter was smiling when he spoke, but it was a telling comment. He's not going anywhere any time soon.
http://www.lohud.com/article/20090820/S ... /-1/SPORTS
Re: Derek Jeter 4000 hits?
Posted: Fri Aug 21, 2009 1:29 am
by Da Schwab
I think 3500 is possible, but 4000? I love Jeet, but that's a tall task.
Re: Derek Jeter 4000 hits?
Posted: Fri Aug 21, 2009 1:48 am
by jumanji
Da Schwab wrote:I think 3500 is possible, but 4000? I love Jeet, but that's a tall task.
I agree, i think you just have to take it year by year (sounds cliche) and then if when you get to 40 you need another 300 hits or so then you just sort of coast to the finish line. He's been so durable. One of the few Yankees i've ever liked as a Red Sox fan. Micky and Maris probably being the others.
Re: Derek Jeter 4000 hits?
Posted: Fri Aug 21, 2009 2:14 am
by Schad
jumanji wrote:Da Schwab wrote:I think 3500 is possible, but 4000? I love Jeet, but that's a tall task.
I agree, i think you just have to take it year by year (sounds cliche) and then if when you get to 40 you need another 300 hits or so then you just sort of coast to the finish line. He's been so durable. One of the few Yankees i've ever liked as a Red Sox fan. Micky and Maris probably being the others.
Again, though, you're asking him to get 190 hits a season until age 40 (assuming he gets another 50 this year), and then pick up 300 more hits thereafter. His average in the twelve seasons in which he's gotten 600+ plate appearances is 197...which means that he has to keep up his career pace for four more years without missing any significant time to injury, and then remain on of the better hitters in the league for another two seasons thereafter. He's a great hitter, but that sort of production would be unprecedented.
Re: Derek Jeter 4000 hits?
Posted: Fri Aug 21, 2009 5:15 pm
by mike_miller
i would think most teams would like a DH with a little more power..
icant see this happening..i mean unless thats just something hes determine to do and is willing to take pay cuts and move to a different team..
but that would seem pretty point imo. hes a HOF, hes got everything a player could want..who cares how many hits you have unless youre breaking a record that means something...
ichiro on the other hand, it make sense for him to stick around after his prime to chase down rose...jeter, just to add his name to a list...doesnt seem worth it. .
Re: Derek Jeter 4000 hits?
Posted: Fri Aug 21, 2009 6:04 pm
by jumanji
mike_miller wrote:i would think most teams would like a DH with a little more power..
icant see this happening..i mean unless thats just something hes determine to do and is willing to take pay cuts and move to a different team..
but that would seem pretty point imo. hes a HOF, hes got everything a player could want..who cares how many hits you have unless youre breaking a record that means something...
ichiro on the other hand, it make sense for him to stick around after his prime to chase down rose...jeter, just to add his name to a list...doesnt seem worth it. .
Ichiro turns 36 in october and barely has 2k hits, he isnt catching Rose.
Re: Derek Jeter 4000 hits?
Posted: Sun Aug 23, 2009 9:43 pm
by Jersey Generals
^Barely has 2000 hits? He doesn't even have that yet.
Re: Derek Jeter 4000 hits?
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2009 2:06 am
by Bleeding Green
Ichiro has over 3200 hits. He'll wind up with over 4000 no problem.
Re: Derek Jeter 4000 hits?
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2009 8:39 pm
by Jersey Generals
If you want to count cross-league records, then sure. But if we do that, we have to count Sadaharu Oh over Barry Bonds (or Hank Aaron depending on your opinion) in homeruns.
Re: Derek Jeter 4000 hits?
Posted: Wed Aug 26, 2009 2:54 am
by Dirty Water
Bleeding Green wrote:Ichiro has over 3200 hits. He'll wind up with over 4000 no problem.
Does he really? That's absurd! EDIT, nm cross league.
Regardless, he probably has the most hits for the first 9 years hes been in the league for a player in MLB ever is my geuss
Re: Derek Jeter 4000 hits?
Posted: Fri Aug 28, 2009 5:21 pm
by mike_miller
i believe the baseball HOF reconizes his work abroad.
Re: Derek Jeter 4000 hits?
Posted: Fri Aug 28, 2009 7:45 pm
by Jersey Generals
^Its not known if they will or not, but I don't think they will. But as there really is no precedent before Ichiro, this could presumably change. Either way, a player who played international ball outside of the MLB, won't be inducted, unless they have success within the MLB when they join the league. So if Ichiro came into the MLB and sucked, he wouldn't be in Cooperstown, regardless of how well he played in Japan. The Negro leagues doesn't count as a) it happened within the borders of the United States, and b) they had no choice but to play in the Negro League.
Re: Derek Jeter 4000 hits?
Posted: Fri Aug 28, 2009 9:09 pm
by Bay_Areas_Finest
You could disregard everything Ichiro did over in Japan and he's still a first-ballot HOF.
I wouldn't be surprised to see him end up over 3000 hits in the states.
Re: Derek Jeter 4000 hits?
Posted: Fri Aug 28, 2009 9:22 pm
by bigboy1234
You could disregard everything Ichiro did over in Japan and he's still a first-ballot HOF.
You must also think Carlos Beltran would be a first-ballot HOF right now too then, because he's had an equal if not better MLB career so far.
Re: Derek Jeter 4000 hits?
Posted: Fri Aug 28, 2009 10:32 pm
by Jersey Generals
^Well, lets see about that.
Carlos Beltran:
R ▲ H ▲ TB ▲ 2B ▲ 3B ▲ HR ▲ RBI ▲ BB ▲ IBB ▲ SO ▲ SB ▲ CS ▲ AVG ▲ OBP ▲ SLG ▲ OPS ▲ 1075 1686 2965 338 64 271 1027 720 63 1077 286 38 .283 .360 .497 .857
5x All-Star selection (2004-07, 2009)
3x Gold Glove Award winner (2006-08)
2x Silver Slugger Award winner (2006-07)
1999 AL Rookie of the Year
Ichiro:
R ▲ H ▲ TB ▲ 2B ▲ 3B ▲ HR ▲ RBI ▲ BB ▲ IBB ▲ SO ▲ SB ▲ CS ▲ AVG ▲ OBP ▲ SLG ▲ OPS ▲
958 1989 2589 223 67 81 505 404 139 578 339 78 .333 .378 .433 .811
9× All-Star selection (2001-2009)
8× Gold Glove Award winner (2001-2008)
3× Pacific League MVP (1994, 1995, 1996)
2× Silver Slugger Award winner (2001, 2007)
2× Batting Champion (2001, 2004)
2001 AL MVP
2001 AL Rookie of the Year
2007 MLB All-Star Game MVP
Single-season major league record with 262 hits
As you can see, Ichiro has more hits, has a better average, and more accolades than Beltran, but Beltran has significantly more rbis, walks, and a higher slugging percentage. Interesting comparison. Ichiro's time in Japan might hinder him, wow.
Re: Derek Jeter 4000 hits?
Posted: Sat Aug 29, 2009 5:22 pm
by Posey H8er
Ichiro is the more interesting question mark regarding 3000 hits. He has 1989 hits and is 35 years old. Can he average 200 hits per season for the next five years as he approaches 40? Crazy stuff considering he came to America in 2001.