These rookie holdouts....

[MagicFan32]

Are absurd, the NFL needs to do what the NHL and NBA do and have a slotted system, these pompous rookies, who have never done anything think they should already be paid like superstars.....if you are as good as you think, you will get paid

[CJ_18]

Crabtree has to be doing one of the stupidest things i've ever heard of.

'settle' for your 20 million and go out and play football. noone's going to pay you more if you spend a whole season sitting on your butt at home.

[Roger Murdock]

Crabtree is probably going to sit the whole year out, then get drafted in the 2nd round and make much less.

[Reks]

Crabtree is probably going to sit the whole year out, then get drafted in the 2nd round and make much less.

haha second round if he's lucky. Look what happened with Mike Williams. Not playing for entire year takes a pretty drastic toll on players

[Icness]

Just talked to (okay, it was yesterday) a 49ers brasser and he told me they haven't talked to Crabtree's people since early August. Neither side has any inclination to budge on what they're put on the table. Crabtree told them "don't call me unless you're going to give me X", and the Niners won't go above about Q or R.

As far as sitting out the season, I wonder how he'll react when he falls to the second round and doesn't get 1/8th of the guaranteed $$ he'd get right now. I can't speak for every team, but I know that at least half the teams in the league would not touch him with a 1st round pick if he goes back into the draft. Look at the WRs that are in the next class--Bryant, Benn, Gilyard, LaFell--and ask why any team would choose an obvious problem child like Crabtree over any of them, when it's already real tough to convince a team to take a WR in the 1st round? It just ain't gonna happen for him.

[Celtics_Champs]

What does san fran get if Crabtree does sit out the year and re-enters. Any compensation?

[czarleon09]

What does san fran get if Crabtree does sit out the year and re-enters. Any compensation?

I think they just lose him with no compensation.

Where do you think Crabtree will get drafted if he does a full year holdout? 2nd, 3rd, 4th round

[UrbanLegendMD]

He will get drafted in the first round again next year. Some stupid GM will go for it.

[Celtics_Champs]

If he falls to the 4th round or lower, 49ers should take him just to piss him off.

[Nolan]

If he falls to the 4th round or lower, 49ers should take him just to piss him off.

lol that'd be epic.

[PhilipNelsonFan]

This is how I'm coming to understand slotted salaries for rookies (and please correct me if I'm wrong):

As far as the owners are concerned, they would not necessarily like to give $50 million in guaranteed money to someone who hasn't played a single down, but there's more to it than just having a nice player. That top-3 pick will earn plenty in jersey sales, ticket sales and other consumption of team-licensed products or team-approved media, so NFL teams will be able to recoup a portion of that investment. However, this really only affects the NFL's few "small-market" teams because the risk is obviously greater with these younger players.

The players' union hates this, and DeMaurice Smith probably has this somewhere between 1 and 3 on his priority list. A list of the league's highest-paid players would be saturated with young players with little experience, and while the lifespan of an NFL player is usually shorter than in other leagues, proven talent suffers a deflation of value. These are guys who have to be convinced to work with the union, and mostly remain passive because of the prevailing "f**k you, got mine" sentiment among many of these kids with money.

Now, in a hard-cap league such as the NFL, it makes sense to give rookies a slotting system because this would allow some of the worse teams to spend slightly less money with the hope of pooling more talent from the free-agent (i.e. veteran) pool. Everyone is paid, and everyone is happy. But then you have a two-part conundrum: Do we do it the MLB way or the NBA way?

Simply put, the MLB slotting system favors merely "recommendations" while the NBA slotting system is strict, as it pertains to the NBA salary cap and other factors. I would assume the NBA's model to be the more preferable of the two to the RealGM crowd, as it makes the holdout process less of a hassle. Furthermore, the MLB slotting system lends itself to skewed valuation of later-round picks. Take a guy like James Davis, a talented running back who ended up being taken in the sixth round despite a third-round grade. What if he demanded second-round money and was willing to hold out over that? What's the cost of signing him? What's the cost of not signing him? Are there enough rookies willing to play professional football so as to replace draft picks that sour in their team's eyes? Given recent history with baseball holdouts (Aaron Crow in particular), the NBA slotting system looks far better, as it takes the hassle out.

Now, of course, this is what we the fans may believe. Team owners will look at this and be initially pleased. Paying rookies less for unknown production? Great start. The question, however, comes with what happens to salary cap money. Would it then drop to accommodate fewer expectations of rookie bonuses? This seems likely, and this would come at the expense of the players' union, which would see its slice of the profits shrink.

Right now, the NFL owners are fat and happy and in control of the most popular sport in America. There is no need for them to pursue any action on this front because it is not as direct of a threat to a team's financial security as we believe. The players' union, accordingly, is in almost no position to build a case for rookie salary slotting without some intense concessions that DeMaurice Smith is ill-suited to allow the owners, in the tenuous position that he's in.

So, for all you 49ers fans out there, you may as well kiss Crabtree goodbye along with hopes for rookie salary slotting. If the NFL happens to become incredibly unpopular over the next few years, this issue may come back stronger than ever.

[MagicFan32]

Crabtree is a real idiot, the advice he's getting is going to make this guy regret listening 6 months from now. Any leverage he has is gone if the niners are good this year.

Remember Mike Williams, not playing for a year killed his career, he was eventually a first rounder again but is any team going to be dumb enough to take Crabtree? with 8 other first round receivers?

this dude better use his brain

[Icness]

I'm cooking up a mock draft and I called a Dir of Collegiate Scouting for his opinion on Crabtree if he doesn't sign. His response: "Undraftable. I'm not risking my job for that immature punk." This is a WR-needy team too. If he doesn't sign soon he's as good as done.

Mock will be posted tomorrow, always fun to play with the early ones and see how awful they look come April.

[Worm Guts]

I'm sure he'll be off some teams draft boards, but somebody will take him. Definitely not in the first round though.

[miller31time]

Odd how we all know this but he and his agent don't.

[GswStorm3]

Crabs has no leverage and he knows it.

[Ong_dynasty]

The weird thing is though, say he did get the few extra million from re-entering next years draft. That would just pretty much equal out what he coulda made this year..