Let's say the M's ownership comes to its senses and fires Bill Bavasi and John McLaren after the season. Its next move is to announce the new GM: you. Now you have your chance to go all Sam Presti on the organization. What are you going to do?
I'll start it out with the players whom some might view as overpriced and worth moving. Let's discuss our options.
Richie Sexson - I'd like to re-sign Ben Broussard, and we could probably do so for about a third of what Sexson makes per year. Sexson has one year left on his deal, in which he's scheduled to make $14 million. He has performed well in previous years, too. Can a team in a hitter-friendly park that needs a first baseman (I'm looking at you, Yankees) be tempted to rent him for a year? How much salary would we need to eat?
Miguel Batista/Jarrod Washburn - both were bad free agent signings, but also not far from market price. Both are signed for two more years. Could we induce a team to send us a midlevel prospect for one of them? There was a bidding war with KC for Batista, whose stock is probably no higher or lower now than it was at the time. I suspect we're stuck with the two of them at the back of the rotation, but I'd probably try to shop them. There are lots of people (including Ryan Feierabend, Ryan Rowland-Smith and Brandon Morrow) who warrant a shot at the rotation, and there will be more in the near future.
Ichiro Suzuki - he's going nowhere.
Adrian Beltre - two years left on his deal at about $12 million per (having already earned the deferred signing bonus). I'd be inclined to keep him for the rest of his contract, then see where we are with Carlos Triunfel in 2010.
Jose Vidro - he'll make $8.5 million next year and is virtually untradeable as a result. We'd have to eat like half of that salary and take back a non-prospect just to dump him. If Chris Snelling weren't on the 60-day DL, I'd be really mad right now.
Jeff Weaver - we all admire the way you fought through adversity, Jeff, but we're not re-signing you. That's $8.3 million off the books. Good luck to you and Mr. Boras, who undoubtedly will find another sucker for at least one more year.
Jose Guillen - mutual option at $9 million for 2008 and you have to figure he'll exercise it. But I hope he doesn't; I'd rather let Adam Jones and Wladimir Balentien be our corner outfielders for the future. And if one of them falters, then we can always turn to...
Raul Ibanez - due to make about $5.5 million in 2008. He's still a lefty bat and possibly more. Can we all agree he stays?
Chris Reitsma - team option at $2.7 million, or a $700k buyout. Most likely we'll opt for the latter. We should be looking at Mark Lowe and Jon Huber as long-term bullpen mainstays from the right, joining Putz and Green. (Even if Morrow moves to the rotation, that's enough arms for now.)
Arthur Rhodes - $1 million for 2007, no options. Our lefty relievers are Sherrill and O'Flaherty, and we'll also consider Cesar Jimenez.
Horacio Ramirez - $1 would be an excessive contract. He made $2.65 million this year. Can I assume that Ramirez can be non-tendered?
Kenji Johjima - he will make $5.5 million next year and could be the most attractive trade bait in this group. We should think about letting Jeff Clement win the job in 2008. On the other hand, it might make sense to hedge our bets by keeping Johjima around for another year and maybe more; if Clement wins the job then Johjima will be an expensive backup (and occasional starter against lefties) for one year. But that'd mean no Jamie Burke!
Ben Broussard - see above comment re Sexson.
Obviously, if we get rid of too many of these guys, we'll have a lot of holes. For example, if we manage to trade Sexson and don't re-sign Guillen, then we're looking at Ibanez as our everyday DH, with no outfield depth. The idea, of course, would be to put the money to better use. For the DH spot there will be one lefty free agent on the market whom I'd love to pursue with Sexson's money and possibly more.
Discuss.
Wait 'til next year!
Wait 'til next year!
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Basketball Jesus
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Well-done, Jesus. I will slink off like the Scribes and Pharisees, but only after asking two follow-up questions, which you can answer with a spiffy parable or something.
(1) I think Johjima is only signed for one more year; do you have different info? I get most of my contract info off a site called MLB4U. To tell you the truth, I have little idea who runs the site. But whenever I've tried to corroborate their info, it has checked out. The M's page is here.
(2) Is Sexson really that untradeable? Yes, he's having a lousy year, likely to finish with an OPS below .700, which is unacceptable for a first baseman. Even his ISOP is down (to a level that's merely "good"). But that's in a terrible park for hitters, especially righties. His OPS+, which adjusts for that kind of thing, is 86 -- bad but not career-killing bad. In the previous five years his OPS has been 842, 910, 915, 927, 867, 889 (OPS+ of 120, 140, 128, 136, 130, 124). He fields the position well, which is coming back in vogue now. And whoever rents him for one year will get a compensatory draft pick if he leaves. We'll have to eat some salary to trade him, but I'm thinking it doesn't have to be all that much.
(1) I think Johjima is only signed for one more year; do you have different info? I get most of my contract info off a site called MLB4U. To tell you the truth, I have little idea who runs the site. But whenever I've tried to corroborate their info, it has checked out. The M's page is here.
(2) Is Sexson really that untradeable? Yes, he's having a lousy year, likely to finish with an OPS below .700, which is unacceptable for a first baseman. Even his ISOP is down (to a level that's merely "good"). But that's in a terrible park for hitters, especially righties. His OPS+, which adjusts for that kind of thing, is 86 -- bad but not career-killing bad. In the previous five years his OPS has been 842, 910, 915, 927, 867, 889 (OPS+ of 120, 140, 128, 136, 130, 124). He fields the position well, which is coming back in vogue now. And whoever rents him for one year will get a compensatory draft pick if he leaves. We'll have to eat some salary to trade him, but I'm thinking it doesn't have to be all that much.
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Basketball Jesus
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1. Hunh: Cots has Johjima through 2008 but I could have sworn there is a team option there through 2009. Guess not. This makes him that much more valuable at the trading deadline. Especially since Posada may have priced himself out of NY with his near-MVP season.
BTW, here's the Cot's website for the M's: http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/0 ... iners.html
2. It
BTW, here's the Cot's website for the M's: http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/0 ... iners.html
2. It
Manocad wrote:The universe is the age it is. We can all agree it's 13 billion years old, and nothing changes. We can all agree it's 6000 years old, and nothing changes. We can all disagree on how old it is, and nothing changes. Some people really need a hobby.
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Basketball Jesus
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New York is a potential destination but that all hinges upon what happens with ARod this offseason. I have a feeling he
Manocad wrote:The universe is the age it is. We can all agree it's 13 billion years old, and nothing changes. We can all agree it's 6000 years old, and nothing changes. We can all disagree on how old it is, and nothing changes. Some people really need a hobby.
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Basketball Jesus
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Not only that but King Felix is a pronounced groundballer as well. I would argue that, even if he is a bit overrated, having Betancourt out there on defense is a positive for the club because of that reason. The problem is the team has two offensive black holes because they feel the need to trot Lopez out there as well even though he
Manocad wrote:The universe is the age it is. We can all agree it's 13 billion years old, and nothing changes. We can all agree it's 6000 years old, and nothing changes. We can all disagree on how old it is, and nothing changes. Some people really need a hobby.
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And here's a partial list of free-agents-to-be at 2B:
Anderson, Marlon (meh)
Biggio, Craig (will retire a 'Stro)
Castillo, Luis (worth a look for the right price)
Giles, Marcus (possible bargain after a nightmare season, but probably wants to stay with his bro in their hometown)
Iguchi, Tadahito (out of favor but has been serviceable in the past)
Kent, Jeff (will be 40 next year but still cruisin!)
Loretta, Mark (hey, they tried to get him at the deadline)
Matsui, Kaz (better stay at Coors)
Hm, nobody whose name comes after "M" in the alphabet, unless you count total garbage (that's you, Chris Woodward). Anyway, there could be some decent stopgaps in that list.
Another thought... Bloomquist as an everyday 2B? He might hit well enough to justify it, which is more than can be said for Lopez, although it diminishes his value as an uber-utility guy.
Anderson, Marlon (meh)
Biggio, Craig (will retire a 'Stro)
Castillo, Luis (worth a look for the right price)
Giles, Marcus (possible bargain after a nightmare season, but probably wants to stay with his bro in their hometown)
Iguchi, Tadahito (out of favor but has been serviceable in the past)
Kent, Jeff (will be 40 next year but still cruisin!)
Loretta, Mark (hey, they tried to get him at the deadline)
Matsui, Kaz (better stay at Coors)
Hm, nobody whose name comes after "M" in the alphabet, unless you count total garbage (that's you, Chris Woodward). Anyway, there could be some decent stopgaps in that list.
Another thought... Bloomquist as an everyday 2B? He might hit well enough to justify it, which is more than can be said for Lopez, although it diminishes his value as an uber-utility guy.
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Basketball Jesus
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Errr....I dunno about Bloomquist. He's pretty incapable offensively and provides merely adequate defense wherever he plays. At best he's a super-utility type that can play - in a pinch - all over the diamond but I would never give him more than 150 ABs in a season.
Out of the list you provided, Tad Iguchi's an interesting option. He knows how to take a walk, which is key, and he's OK enough defensively that I wouldn't worry about him. He's only 32, which is somewhat of a positive.
Kent's amazing. He has an EqA of .296 this season...at age 40. Throw a two-year deal at him and hope for one more very good season? Hell, if this team was willing to roll the dice with a mediocrity like Vidro, why not one of the best 2B ever?
Out of the list you provided, Tad Iguchi's an interesting option. He knows how to take a walk, which is key, and he's OK enough defensively that I wouldn't worry about him. He's only 32, which is somewhat of a positive.
Kent's amazing. He has an EqA of .296 this season...at age 40. Throw a two-year deal at him and hope for one more very good season? Hell, if this team was willing to roll the dice with a mediocrity like Vidro, why not one of the best 2B ever?
Manocad wrote:The universe is the age it is. We can all agree it's 13 billion years old, and nothing changes. We can all agree it's 6000 years old, and nothing changes. We can all disagree on how old it is, and nothing changes. Some people really need a hobby.
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I retract what I said about Bloomquist. For some reason I thought he had been hitting somewhat better this year. But I looked it up and, nope, he still sucks as much as ever. Somehow I had thought he had been OPS-ing somewhere in the 750 range this year -- not exactly good, but better than the turd sandwich that is Lopez. Turns out he's at his usual horrid sub-700 level (with an EqA of .227 and a VORP of -2.3). So scratch that idea.
While I'm at it, scratch the Giles idea, as I've noticed that his EqA is about the same (.229) and his VORP is even worse (-9.0).
Also happened to notice Ben Zobrist and saw that he's also doing even worse than I thought. Yes, yes, all together now, "sample size," but in about 300 at-bats over two seasons his offense has been truly execrable. As in, he could hit like Jeter in his next 300 at-bats and will still come out looking like a light-hitting shortstop over a full season's worth of plate appearances. At 25, do you think he can really make the great leap?
While I'm at it, scratch the Giles idea, as I've noticed that his EqA is about the same (.229) and his VORP is even worse (-9.0).
Also happened to notice Ben Zobrist and saw that he's also doing even worse than I thought. Yes, yes, all together now, "sample size," but in about 300 at-bats over two seasons his offense has been truly execrable. As in, he could hit like Jeter in his next 300 at-bats and will still come out looking like a light-hitting shortstop over a full season's worth of plate appearances. At 25, do you think he can really make the great leap?
Re: Wait 'til next year!
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Re: Wait 'til next year!
hippie wrote:Richie Sexson - I'd like to re-sign Ben Broussard, and we could probably do so for about a third of what Sexson makes per year. Sexson has one year left on his deal, in which he's scheduled to make $14 million. He has performed well in previous years, too. Can a team in a hitter-friendly park that needs a first baseman (I'm looking at you, Yankees) be tempted to rent him for a year? How much salary would we need to eat?
I'd be willing to eat as much of his salary as necessary to replace him because he seems like a poor candidate to bounce back, he now has problems staying healthy, and his defense is poor since he can't move anywhere. I don't buy the chemistry arguments McLaren uses...it has to be grating on a team to watch a teammate consistently suck while better options rot on the bench. Send a message that this game is about rewarding production, not rewarding being older than everyone else.
hippie wrote:Miguel Batista/Jarrod Washburn - both were bad free agent signings, but also not far from market price. Both are signed for two more years. Could we induce a team to send us a midlevel prospect for one of them? There was a bidding war with KC for Batista, whose stock is probably no higher or lower now than it was at the time. I suspect we're stuck with the two of them at the back of the rotation, but I'd probably try to shop them. There are lots of people (including Ryan Feierabend, Ryan Rowland-Smith and Brandon Morrow) who warrant a shot at the rotation, and there will be more in the near future.
I'm fine with keeping Batista. He makes too much, but given the market it's perversely fair.
hippie wrote:Jose Guillen - mutual option at $9 million for 2008 and you have to figure he'll exercise it. But I hope he doesn't; I'd rather let Adam Jones and Wladimir Balentien be our corner outfielders for the future. And if one of them falters, then we can always turn to...
Failing that, at least move Ibanez to RF where his defensive problems won't look so bad. I don't mind Guillen, but the odds of him repeating this season are poor.
hippie wrote:Raul Ibanez - due to make about $5.5 million in 2008. He's still a lefty bat and possibly more. Can we all agree he stays?
Will all those Mariners who can play decent defense in the outfield take one step forward? Not so fast, Raul...
DH or RF. His range is shot.
hippie wrote:Chris Reitsma - team option at $2.7 million, or a $700k buyout. Most likely we'll opt for the latter. We should be looking at Mark Lowe and Jon Huber as long-term bullpen mainstays from the right, joining Putz and Green. (Even if Morrow moves to the rotation, that's enough arms for now.)
I like Huber and Lowe...but I don't want to rely on Lowe to fill any big role on the club since his arm has real problems. Still, there's plenty of arms in the minors that can fill a backup setup role...Mickolio, anyone?
hippie wrote:Horacio Ramirez - $1 would be an excessive contract. He made $2.65 million this year. Can I assume that Ramirez can be non-tendered?
If he makes it out of Seattle alive he should be grateful.
hippie wrote:Kenji Johjima - he will make $5.5 million next year and could be the most attractive trade bait in this group. We should think about letting Jeff Clement win the job in 2008. On the other hand, it might make sense to hedge our bets by keeping Johjima around for another year and maybe more; if Clement wins the job then Johjima will be an expensive backup (and occasional starter against lefties) for one year. But that'd mean no Jamie Burke!
A rotation of Burke and Clement isn't a bad idea as Kenji is a good trade chip. Although the crop was pretty strong this year...
I have no good ideas about what to do with the team next year...the FA SP crop looks crappy once again.
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Basketball Jesus
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hippie wrote:Also happened to notice Ben Zobrist and saw that he's also doing even worse than I thought. Yes, yes, all together now, "sample size," but in about 300 at-bats over two seasons his offense has been truly execrable. As in, he could hit like Jeter in his next 300 at-bats and will still come out looking like a light-hitting shortstop over a full season's worth of plate appearances. At 25, do you think he can really make the great leap?
Eek, I didn't realize his MLB numbers were that bad. I guess I was enamored more with his minor league stats than anything. In his defense, he was playing injured for most of this season. I think he's better than this, obviously. Given sufficient ABs, he could probably produce a .280/.325/.420 line, which is a marked improvement over Lopez.
The Devil Rays also have Joel Guzman. He's only 22 (even though it seems like he's been around forever) and put up some decent numbers this season.
With Brignac and Longoria bumping against MLB-ready talent in the minors and Guzman/Iwamura/BJ Upton/Zobrist in the bigs, there are quite a few options there.
Manocad wrote:The universe is the age it is. We can all agree it's 13 billion years old, and nothing changes. We can all agree it's 6000 years old, and nothing changes. We can all disagree on how old it is, and nothing changes. Some people really need a hobby.
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I'd love to get in-depth with this but I'll resort to Cliff's notes:
-Trade Sexy if we can get a third SP back; if not, I have no problem keeping him around with the knowledge that he's only got one more year.
-I hate Batista, but I'm a big fan of Washburn. Keep both.
-Ichiro is going nowhere.
-I'd explore trading Adrian Beltre, but I doubt a lot comes of it and we're probably just going to keep him and his ability to produce in short spurts.
-F**k Jose Vidro. Seriously, f**k him.
-I'd run Jeff Weaver out of town on a burning cross...with Bavasi right behind him. How stupid can you be to give $8.5 million to that man???
-Jose Guillen was a bad idea that worked out magically. If we could trade him, that'd be cool, but there's no market for washed-up, defensively challenged outfielders who don't consistently hit.
-God, Ibanez has to stay. He was the glue guy at times for this team.
-Reitsma, Rhodes, Ramirez: see you ALL later. Get out.
-Keep Broussard; he's a bright spot in a cloudy world and, while he can be replaced, he ain't broken.
-Adam Dunn? As a DH, f**k yeah. He's what we wish Sexson was.
-For next season: bring up both Huber and Lowe (but keep them on short innings), keep Balentien and Jones on the roster as backup OFs, TRADE JOSE LOPEZ, have a catchers platoon of Clement, Burke, and Johjima, and let Bloomquist walk, for the love of God.
-Trade Sexy if we can get a third SP back; if not, I have no problem keeping him around with the knowledge that he's only got one more year.
-I hate Batista, but I'm a big fan of Washburn. Keep both.
-Ichiro is going nowhere.
-I'd explore trading Adrian Beltre, but I doubt a lot comes of it and we're probably just going to keep him and his ability to produce in short spurts.
-F**k Jose Vidro. Seriously, f**k him.
-I'd run Jeff Weaver out of town on a burning cross...with Bavasi right behind him. How stupid can you be to give $8.5 million to that man???
-Jose Guillen was a bad idea that worked out magically. If we could trade him, that'd be cool, but there's no market for washed-up, defensively challenged outfielders who don't consistently hit.
-God, Ibanez has to stay. He was the glue guy at times for this team.
-Reitsma, Rhodes, Ramirez: see you ALL later. Get out.
-Keep Broussard; he's a bright spot in a cloudy world and, while he can be replaced, he ain't broken.
-Adam Dunn? As a DH, f**k yeah. He's what we wish Sexson was.
-For next season: bring up both Huber and Lowe (but keep them on short innings), keep Balentien and Jones on the roster as backup OFs, TRADE JOSE LOPEZ, have a catchers platoon of Clement, Burke, and Johjima, and let Bloomquist walk, for the love of God.
Tim Lehrbach wrote:I will break the Rose Garden.
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NateMustGo
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Vidro needs to be at 2nd, Ibanez everyday DH, Move Jones into left, Give Sexson another shot we cant trade his contract. Offense and Defense are in good shape, bullpen is in good shape. Trade chips are Kenji-BenB and Beltre we need SPs and a new Manager, Larussa would be a dream come true. Now for our #1 need SPs I say Ramirez,Weaver need to go away- So that leaves King,Washedupburn and Batista with Morrow and make one trade say Beltre for Penny and were set -No more high priced free agents!!!!!!!!
