daddy's handicapping (23-20 against the spread)

DaddyBigD · Post #1 » by **DaddyBigD** » Sun Sep 7, 2014 11:04 am

I think I'm pretty good at picking out spreads that favor the player. I'm going to post my picks here all season. I will post whenever I see a line I like.
official line maker: http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/

ill use the Vegas insider consensus line as the official line maker.

week 1 picks Sunday sep 7th 3:45am

Houston Texans vs Washington redskins. Texans -3
sf 49ers at Dallas cowboys. 49ers -4.5
edit 9:24 am adding Bengals +1
edit 4:47 pm adding broncos -9

that's it unless a line moves between now and kick off.

reckless picks: (these won't count towards my win/loss but will be a good practice for maybe using a more reckless strategy in future years. but for this year, like every year so far, ill be conservative)
falcons +3
rams -3
cheifs -3
Panthers +3
lions -6.5
these won't count towards my win/loss, it's just a learning exercise

DaddyBigD · Post #2 » by **DaddyBigD** » Sun Sep 7, 2014 9:38 pm

week 1
official picks
Texans -3 (Texans 17 redskins 6) W
Bengals +1 (Bengals 23 ravens 16) W
49ers -4.5 (49ers 28 cowboys 17) W
Broncos - 9 (Broncos 31 colts 24) L

experimental picks
falcons +3 (falcons 37 saints 34) W
Rams -3 (rams 6 Vikings 34) L
chiefs -3 (chiefs 10 titans 26) L
Panthers +3 (Panthers 20 bucs 14) W
lions -6.5 (lions 35 gians 14) W

Post #3 » by **HMFFL** » Mon Sep 8, 2014 3:56 am

Nicely done.

DaddyBigD · Post #4 » by **DaddyBigD** » Mon Sep 8, 2014 8:31 am

week 2
official pick
Seattle vs san Diego. Seattle -5.5 (lock x 3) when I see a line I absolutely love ill make a note. if I was betting I'd wager triple ($330 instead of the normal $110) on this line. and watch this line is gonna move, id guess it goes up to -7 or -8 by kickoff. that's why I posted early wanna get em at -5.5

edit friday Sep 12 8:10 am more official picks:
Dallas vs Tennessee. Tennessee -3.5
NE vs Minnesota. Minnesota -3
Tampa bay vs st Louis. Tampa bay -6
green bay vs ny jets. jets +8.5
Detroit vs Carolina. Carolina -2.5

+Seattle pick from earlier this week

Yunsen · Post #5 » by **Yunsen** » Mon Sep 8, 2014 9:32 pm

The San Diego hype confused me a little. They were a missed field goal away from finishing 8-8 and missing the playoffs.

DaddyBigD · Post #6 » by **DaddyBigD** » Tue Sep 9, 2014 4:27 am

other than the qb I couldn't name one player on San Diego. I do know the Seahawks and they've got something special going on. Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson have that team playing HARD, and there's so much talent to boot. ill be picking Seattle to cover most weeks.

DaddyBigD · Post #7 » by **DaddyBigD** » Wed Sep 10, 2014 3:26 pm

really weird stuff going on with the lines this week. some are off (I think) and I would have expected the betters to jump on them. if the betters are betting these lines heavy on one side Vegas hasn't adjusted then yet and that would be really odd. here's a couple.

Wednesday morning

Steelers vs ravens. opened favoring the ravens by 3 now 2.5
I thought the Steelers should be favorites, why betters haven't bet down the line to pick em I don't know. maybe they're getting action and Vegas is just being stubborn. maybe I'm wrong. can't bet it

lions opened 1 point dogs (now 3pt) vs Carolina (I thought loins should be favorites). maybe I'm just wrong on this game. can't bet it

more to come....

DaddyBigD · Post #8 » by **DaddyBigD** » Fri Sep 12, 2014 3:08 pm

updated week 2 picks. post # 4 and here:

Seattle vs San Diego. Seattle -5.5 (triple wager)
Dallas vs Tennessee. Tennessee -3.5
NE vs Minnesota. Minnesota +3
Tampa bay vs st Louis. Tampa bay -6
green bay vs ny jets. jets +8.5
Detroit vs Carolina. Carolina -2.5

DaddyBigD · Post #9 » by **DaddyBigD** » Fri Sep 12, 2014 3:14 pm

week 2 reckless experiment pick (won't count towards official W/L record
Houston vs Oakland. Oakland +3
Kansas city vs Denver. kc +12.5
Arizona vs ny giants. giants +2.5

DaddyBigD · Post #10 » by **DaddyBigD** » Sun Sep 14, 2014 11:34 pm

week 2, screw you.

Post #11 » by **studcrackers** » Mon Sep 15, 2014 12:03 am

DaddyBigD wrote:updated week 2 picks. post # 4 and here:

Seattle vs San Diego. Seattle -5.5 (triple wager)
Dallas vs Tennessee. Tennessee -3.5
NE vs Minnesota. Minnesota +3
Tampa bay vs st Louis. Tampa bay -6
green bay vs ny jets. jets +8.5
Detroit vs Carolina. Carolina -2.5

helluva day ya mustve had

DaddyBigD · Post #12 » by **DaddyBigD** » Mon Sep 15, 2014 1:23 am

ahhh lol it's been hell

El Turco · Post #13 » by **El Turco** » Mon Sep 15, 2014 1:24 am

DaddyBigD wrote:other than the qb I couldn't name one player on San Diego.

you should stop gambling

DaddyBigD · Post #14 » by **DaddyBigD** » Mon Sep 15, 2014 2:07 am

week 2 results 2-4*
* triple wager lost so money wise its more like 2-6. smh

Seattle vs San Diego. Seattle -5.5 (triple wager) L
Dallas vs Tennessee. Tennessee -3.5 L
NE vs Minnesota. Minnesota +3 L
Tampa bay vs st Louis. Tampa bay -6 L
green bay vs ny jets. jets +8.5 W
Detroit vs Carolina. Carolina -2.5 W

shoulda hedged the Minny NE game. I've told my friends countless times "never bet against the patriots". lol

DaddyBigD · Post #15 » by **DaddyBigD** » Sun Sep 21, 2014 4:57 pm

week 3 picks
dallas -2
Washington -4
Detroit -1
NE -14
miami -14
jets -2.5

DaddyBigD · Post #16 » by **DaddyBigD** » Mon Sep 22, 2014 12:11 am

DaddyBigD wrote:week 3 picks
dallas -2
Washington -4
Detroit -1
NE -14
miami -14
jets -2.5

I typed this up in a hurry. I'm not penalizing myself for typos
Washington +4 not -4
and Miami is -5.5

http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/?s=344

dallas won by 3 W
Washington lost by 4 W
Detroit won by 12 W
NE won by 7 L
Miami list by 14 L

jets play tomorrow night.

Post #17 » by **bwgood77** » Mon Sep 22, 2014 9:10 pm

DaddyBigD wrote:other than the qb I couldn't name one player on San Diego. I do know the Seahawks and they've got something special going on. Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson have that team playing HARD, and there's so much talent to boot. ill be picking Seattle to cover most weeks.

If you can only name one player on ANY team you should definitely not be gambling on football, at least for or against those teams at a minimum.

I'm playing ESPN's pigskin pick-em with spreads and am at 27-20 so far this year. Not sure how I'd be doing if I only picked favorite bets though.

DaddyBigD · Post #18 » by **DaddyBigD** » Thu Sep 25, 2014 7:10 pm

bwgood77 wrote:
DaddyBigD wrote:other than the qb I couldn't name one player on San Diego. I do know the Seahawks and they've got something special going on. Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson have that team playing HARD, and there's so much talent to boot. ill be picking Seattle to cover most weeks.

If you can only name one player on ANY team you should definitely not be gambling on football, at least for or against those teams at a minimum.

I'm playing ESPN's pigskin pick-em with spreads and am at 27-20 so far this year. Not sure how I'd be doing if I only picked favorite bets though.

no I don't think that's true. Ill admit I don't know every team so what. not this year but recently I took the pats to cover every week, didn't care the spread or opponent. and they covered all but a few games. for like 3 seasons in a row. the ducks were the same way even those 45+ point spreads they would cover almost every week. sports gambling is a lot more than sports. and don't believe everything you read, 99.9% of handicapping websites are sponsored by sports books. lots of misinformation or there. I've kept records over several seasons I have faith on my system. no worries

Post #19 » by **bwgood77** » Thu Sep 25, 2014 7:26 pm

Yes, I used to be a pretty heavy gambler in college. I know the NFL inside and out so can usually find good plays.

El Turco · Post #20 » by **El Turco** » Thu Sep 25, 2014 7:48 pm

DaddyBigD wrote:
bwgood77 wrote:
DaddyBigD wrote:other than the qb I couldn't name one player on San Diego. I do know the Seahawks and they've got something special going on. Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson have that team playing HARD, and there's so much talent to boot. ill be picking Seattle to cover most weeks.

If you can only name one player on ANY team you should definitely not be gambling on football, at least for or against those teams at a minimum.

I'm playing ESPN's pigskin pick-em with spreads and am at 27-20 so far this year. Not sure how I'd be doing if I only picked favorite bets though.

no I don't think that's true. Ill admit I don't know every team so what. not this year but recently I took the pats to cover every week, didn't care the spread or opponent. and they covered all but a few games. for like 3 seasons in a row. the ducks were the same way even those 45+ point spreads they would cover almost every week. sports gambling is a lot more than sports. and don't believe everything you read, 99.9% of handicapping websites are sponsored by sports books. lots of misinformation or there. I've kept records over several seasons I have faith on my system. no worries

2013: patriots 9-9 ats

2012: patriots 10-8 ats

2011: patriots 10-9 ats

http://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pageLo ... eam18.html

patriots only covered 53 percent past 3 years, you need to win 55 percent long term to make profit betting. oregon 2-3 ats last 5 times they were a favorite by 45 points or more.

you're obviously not very good at this.