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Green Bay (8-6): They've caught fire lately, having won 4 straight, but they're still on the outside looking in. The defense continues to be a big issue for them, but it's very rare that a QB of Rodgers's caliber doesn't get his team into the playoffs, regardless of who he has around him. Especially since his O-line has protected him well this year, and he's got Jordy Nelson back. GB is consistently projected to be one of the contenders in the NFC year after year, and it's largely due to Rodgers being awesome...if they miss the playoffs altogether, that doesn't look good at all.

Pittsburgh (9-5): They're currently the 3 seed and on top of the division, but that can change in the blink of an eye. If they lose to Baltimore next week, they're on the outside looking in. Overall, they've been pretty disappointing this year, with some seriously head-scratching losses. With all of the hype about their offense and the explosiveness of Big Ben, Brown, and Bell, them missing the playoffs would be downright embarrassing imo.

Baltimore (8-6): Pretty similar to Pittsburgh. Their defense has been awesome this year, and Flacco gets a lot of credit for being a SB-winning QB, but he's really dropped the ball this year imo.

Denver (8-6): Going from champions to missing the playoffs is never a good look. Especially since they started the year 4-0.

Indianapolis (7-7): This is more of an indictment on Andrew Luck imo. After a promising rookie year, they never got better, and they've nosedived the last two years. And we're coming off a season in which Luck's backups led them to a better record than he did, which flew in the face of the whole "Luck is surrounded by garbage and is the only one that keeps everything afloat" narrative. And they're losing the division to a team that's started Brock Osweiller and hasn't had JJ Watt. The Texans are not a good team, but they're on track to make the playoffs purely because the Colts have been that bad, and they really shouldn't be.


My pick would be between Pittsburgh and GB, simply because of the expectations. Denver gets a pass because of the presumed championship hangover and they can point to Seimian being a big downgrade compared to Manning (not evident in the numbers, but you can argue the game management aspect), and Indianapolis gets a pass because despite how they played last year without Luck...they DO suck outside of Luck.

You're just not supposed to miss the playoffs with an all-time great QB, and Pittsburgh and GB are dangerously close to doing that. And Pittsburgh can't even argue that their supporting cast sucks, because they have one of the most stacked offensive teams ever.

I'll say Steelers. Too much talent. Same goes for Cincinnati. What the heck happened to them? Marvin Lewis needs to go.

I'm with Jack, it has to be the Steelers. I fully expected them to contend for and possibly win the Super Bowl this year, so in my estimation this season has been a massive disappointment for them. They really don't have any excuses either.

I'm going with Broncos.. they really did nothing to address the QB situation this offseason with a win-now roster and because of that, they have potentially wasted a year of a lot of quality players' primes (DThomas, Von, Wolfe, Marshall), while guys like Aqib Talib, TJ Ward and DeMarcus Ware lurch closer towards the end of their lines. I dont think Siemian has been terrible by any means but he's clearly in the bottom percentile of QBs, and you have to wonder what the Broncos could have got by dangling a 1st round pick for an established vet instead of opting for Paxton Lynch and Siemian. Will Lynch be ready while the Broncos' supporting cast is still elite? If he's not ready next year, the Broncos are stuck with Siemian again and might be in the same position again.

re: Ben - dont tell my fantasy teams, because hes on a lot of them, but I dont think he's an all-time great QB. He entirely disappears on the road all the time, and I dont think you can be one of the greats if you need home field advantage to do your thing.

Probably Denver, props to KC & Oak for bringing the heat

panthers

Arda K wrote:panthers

They are the one team most would have looked at in September and thought "no-brainer" playoff team. Gonna be a ton of over analysis when this season is over about them in particular.

I have to go with Carolina, Denver and Arizona.

Otis Driftwood wrote:

Arda K wrote:panthers

They are the one team most would have looked at in September and thought "no-brainer" playoff team. Gonna be a ton of over analysis when this season is over about them in particular.

yeah going from a 15 wins with a league mvp to the basement of nfc south is quite puzzling, they lost norman but got back their #1 receiver so it is not like there was huge talent exodus.

Cardinals, Panthers, Broncos and Bengals

FNQ wrote:I'm going with Broncos.. they really did nothing to address the QB situation this offseason with a win-now roster and because of that, they have potentially wasted a year of a lot of quality players' primes (DThomas, Von, Wolfe, Marshall), while guys like Aqib Talib, TJ Ward and DeMarcus Ware lurch closer towards the end of their lines. I dont think Siemian has been terrible by any means but he's clearly in the bottom percentile of QBs, and you have to wonder what the Broncos could have got by dangling a 1st round pick for an established vet instead of opting for Paxton Lynch and Siemian. Will Lynch be ready while the Broncos' supporting cast is still elite? If he's not ready next year, the Broncos are stuck with Siemian again and might be in the same position again.

I see Romo landing there.

I bet Ernie is upset today. he picked buffalo to win the AFC east and New England would not make the playoffs this year, lol.

The OP was more focused on the teams that are on the cusp of the playoffs as of right now. But yeah, overall in terms of the seasons they've had, Carolina, Arizona, and Cincinnati are right up there as well, I didn't include them because their seasons ended a while ago. They didn't lose much talent at all in the off season, their drop off has been confusing to say the least.

Carolina they have the reigning MVP, and they're coming off a Super Bowl season albeit they lost said Super Bowl. Everyone expected them to get back to the Super Bowl or at least run the table in the NFC, yet they couldn't even win their division.

CDior510 wrote:Carolina they have the reigning MVP, and they're coming off a Super Bowl season albeit they lost said Super Bowl. Everyone expected them to get back to the Super Bowl or at least run the table in the NFC, yet they couldn't even win their division.

HEY lets slow down here! They still have something like a 1/250,000 chance to make the playoffs or something like that. They are not officially eliminated from the playoffs yet.

bleu wrote:

CDior510 wrote:Carolina they have the reigning MVP, and they're coming off a Super Bowl season albeit they lost said Super Bowl. Everyone expected them to get back to the Super Bowl or at least run the table in the NFC, yet they couldn't even win their division.

HEY lets slow down here! They still have something like a 1/250,000 chance to make the playoffs or something like that. They are not officially eliminated from the playoffs yet.

You are in my prayers.

bleu wrote:

CDior510 wrote:Carolina they have the reigning MVP, and they're coming off a Super Bowl season albeit they lost said Super Bowl. Everyone expected them to get back to the Super Bowl or at least run the table in the NFC, yet they couldn't even win their division.

HEY lets slow down here! They still have something like a 1/250,000 chance to make the playoffs or something like that. They are not officially eliminated from the playoffs yet.

I mean hey look. Newton was semi injured and semi pouty about the super bowl loss, and I love Luke Kuechly I really feel for him and your team. Josh Norman leaving really hurt you guys I don't think your defense is good enough to win without him and Kuechly and Thomas may retire.

CDior510 wrote:

bleu wrote:

CDior510 wrote:Carolina they have the reigning MVP, and they're coming off a Super Bowl season albeit they lost said Super Bowl. Everyone expected them to get back to the Super Bowl or at least run the table in the NFC, yet they couldn't even win their division.

HEY lets slow down here! They still have something like a 1/250,000 chance to make the playoffs or something like that. They are not officially eliminated from the playoffs yet.

I mean hey look. Newton was semi injured and semi pouty about the super bowl loss, and I love Luke Kuechly I really feel for him and your team. Josh Norman leaving really hurt you guys I don't think your defense is good enough to win without him and Kuechly and Thomas may retire.

I doubt Kuechly would retire at his age. The dude is a monster. You may be right about Thomas however.

Cactus Jack wrote:

CDior510 wrote:

bleu wrote:HEY lets slow down here! They still have something like a 1/250,000 chance to make the playoffs or something like that. They are not officially eliminated from the playoffs yet.

I mean hey look. Newton was semi injured and semi pouty about the super bowl loss, and I love Luke Kuechly I really feel for him and your team. Josh Norman leaving really hurt you guys I don't think your defense is good enough to win without him and Kuechly and Thomas may retire.

I doubt Kuechly would retire at his age. The dude is a monster. You may be right about Thomas however.

It was a combination of Norman leaving and starting two rookie corners all year that hurt the defense. They certainly got progressively better as the year went on though. Kuchely is still young, he's got 3 or more years left in him, but Davis may be done. We'll see. Him leaving wouldn't be TOO detrimental though because Shaq Thompson is a decent next man up. They had a crazy amount of close games this year, I think it was more of a mentality thing and not being able to close out that hurt them more than anything.