Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys
Elliott struggled in the first two weeks of the 2016 season before running roughshod over opposing defenses. From Dallas' third game on through its 15th, Elliott averaged 115.2 rushing yards per game before sitting out their meaningless Week 17 encounter. The Ohio State star followed it up with 125 yards in Dallas' postseason loss to the Packers.
It's hard to think of the last rookie running back who was as effective as Zeke, but let's present him anonymously in table form:
PLAYER RUSH YDS YPC TD
Ezekiel Elliott 322 1,631 5.1 15
Player B 335 1,613 4.8 13
Pretty similar, no? Player B is Alfred Morris, currently Dallas' third-string back. Morris racked up huge numbers as a rookie in Washington, but his rushing yardage total has dropped in each of the four ensuing seasons, bottoming out with 243 yards behind Elliott last season.
Maybe it's not fair to compare Elliott to Morris, who looked like a star during that one year Washington turned Robert Griffin III and the zone-read offense into the league's most terrifying offensive attack. Elliott's a top-five pick and Morris was a sixth-round afterthought. You would argue that Morris was in the best possible situation for a running back to succeed, but wouldn't that also be the case for Elliott in 2016?
The Cowboys had the best offensive line in the NFC, with three Pro Bowlers in the prime of their careers combining to miss a total of just two meaningful games. The other two starters were veterans with years of experience in Dallas, both of whom (Doug Free and Ronald Leary) are now gone. It's hard to imagine the Cowboys fielding an offensive line better than the one that was in front of Elliott last year, given that even great offensive lines have a shelf life of a few seasons at most.
Elliott was also playing in an offense that was basically designed to feed him carries. The Cowboys got a stunning level of play from rookie quarterback Dak Prescott, but as Prescott matures, it would hardly be a surprise to see Dallas ask him to throw more than the 456 passes he threw last year. The Cowboys were also without star receiver Dez Bryant for a chunk of last season, and Bryant would have demanded the ball on a more frequent basis had he been in the lineup.
The Cowboys also won 13 games, which meant that they were running the clock out in the fourth quarter in lieu of throwing the ball, which they'll have to do more if they're trailing. Elliott ended up with 322 carries last year, which is a huge outlier in the modern NFL. Elliott was the only back in football to top the 300-carry mark, although Le'Veon Bell averaged more attempts per game (21.8) than Elliott (21.5).
Put it this way: There have been 36 backs since the merger to produce a single season with 1,600 rushing yards or more. Just 12 of those backs have repeated the feat. It's tempting to separate those into two groups, with one-offs like Morris in one and perennial superstars like LaDainian Tomlinson in the other, but there are plenty of true franchise backs who weren't able to get to those lofty heights again. Top-five picks like Edgerrin James, George Rogers, Jamal Lewis, and even Tony Dorsett got more than 1,600 yards once -- and never again.
It's a real feat to be as good as Elliott was in 2016, combining both his natural talent and an optimal set of surroundings. Elliott surely won't be able to top his 1,631 yards again in 2017, given that it appears likely he'll be suspended for as many as six games, but the odds are also against him getting past that mark again as a pro.
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http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/20325873/nfl-tom-brady-ezekiel-elliott-julio-jones-other-stars-already-peaked
