Super Bowl Discussion
Posted: Sat Jan 27, 2018 6:58 pm
Patriots vs Eagles- February 4th, 6:30 ET.
This forum seems to have become fairly demoralized after last year but there are plenty of reasons to be more optimistic this year in your ongoing opposition to the Patriots. This is a deeply flawed Patriot team. While things are pretty unlikely to degenerate into a 43-8 debacle, I think the Patriots are actually the underdogs when you consider their multiple weaknesses.
It's going to come down to Brady and Belichick vs a clearly superior team.
-Some people act like the Patriots always win the super bowl but that is obviously not true. In the weak defense era the Patriots have only won the super bowl 2 out of 9 times. That is hardly a foregone conclusion.
-The Patriots have never won a super bowl with a defense this poor. Their defense is historically bad for a super bowl winning team.
Def rank-------YDs+Pts------DVOA----DVOArecent
2017----------------17-----------31---------22
2016-----------------4.5---------16---------10
2015-----------------9.5---------12---------15
2014----------------10.5---------12---------13
2013----------------18-----------20---------24
2012----------------17-----------15---------15
2011----------------23-----------30---------28
2010----------------16.5---------21---------11
2009-----------------8------------14---------13
Worst defense to ever win-
2006----------------22-----------25---------24
The 2006 Colts are the worst defense to ever win the super bowl. When you factor in that the Colt's defense played quite well in the playoffs then this Patriot defense would be close to the worst defense to ever win a super bowl.
-The O-line is even more overrated than usual this year. The Patriots won zero super bowls in the last decade with an offensive line this mediocre. Brady has been under pressure much more than he was in 2014 and 2016.
Sacks Allowed-
2017- 35
2016- 15
2015- 38
2014- 21
2013- 40
2012- 27
2011- 32
2010- 25
2009- 16
-The Patriots are rarely able to run well in the playoffs. It's easier to slow down a one dimensional team.
In the 19 playoff games since 2009 the Patriots have averaged 93 rushing ypg on 3.75 ypc. Take away the two pathetic Colt defenses and it's 80 ypg on 3.5 ypc. This year the Patriots have done even worse than their mediocre average- 74 ypg on 3.2 ypc.
-Gronkowski still hasn't been cleared to play. It goes without saying that every day missed by Gronk is an advantage for the Eagles.
-When you look at the Patriot's losses over the last decade there is a clear pattern- You don't need a good QB to beat them, just a good defense. Here's who they lost to- Eli, Flacco(34 yards passing!), Sanchez, Eli, Flacco and a completely finished Peyton.
-Even though Foles might be able to get away with being mediocre, he has actually been exceptional so far in his 3 playoff games with a 116 rating.
-This might not mean as much as it used to but the passing yards leader has never won the super bowl.
Unfortunately Brady is still going to be the GOAT no matter what happens a week from now. But you have a good chance to score a "huge upset" against the hated Pats even though in reality it wouldn't be an upset at all.
I found the perfect thing to do. This will be only the second super bowl I will not have watched.