QB Movement in the 2021 offseason

[righterwriter]

As the fan of a team that is not partaking in the playoffs, I thought it would be fun to look at QB movement that could take place in 2021. There are a ton of teams looking for an upgrade or someone more inline with their rebuild/cap cutting, not to mention a lot of QBs that will want to move on as well, and either Free Agency, a trade, or the draft should supply the QB they're looking for.

First let me preface this that my knowledge of cap hits and dead money or whatever is limited, so feel free to share what you know if what I'm saying is nonsense in this regard. But for the sake of fun in examining potential fits, lets just assume guys with a big cap number restructure to make a trade work out of their own interest in being in a better situation.

Teams that are almost for sure changing their big name QB

- Philly and Carson Wentz-- Barring a massive make up session, this relationship is over. The only question is which team will take on the cap hit for a guy who looked so very bad this year.

- Detroit and Matt Stafford-- The new coach and GM will likely want a QB that is starting fresh. Stafford can still play, so he'll get value back in a trade.

Teams that I believe will make a change

- Atlanta and Matt Ryan-- Ryan is a great player and a great leader, but once again, a new regime at HC/GM will probably want to use Atlanta's #4 pick to get a QB to build around for the long term and do away with Ryan's massive salary.

- San Francisco and Jimmy G-- Nice QB, but Shanahan isn't the type of guy to give more and more chances in an offensive system that I believe he feels is limited with Garappolo. If they see a guy they like available, they'll cut Jimmy with minimal dead cap and try to gt back to the top of the NFC again next year.

- NY Jets and Sam Darnold -- Sam played well down the stretch, but the shine is off the penny now. With Justin Fields or Zach available, I'd say Sam gets dealt for a 2nd day pick.

- Denver and Drew Lock-- I think Lock has some talent, but Denver will want one of the veteran QBs available to try to win now rather than ride it out with him. Maybe he goes to the bench for a year?

- Indy and Phillip Rivers-- Time to put Rivers out to pasture and reload.

- WFT and their QB situation-- A good veteran QB could make them a 10 win team instantly, and they've got cap space.

- New England and Cam Newton-- He's washed up and ready to take on his new role of backup.


Teams that could make a change if the opportunity arises

- Vikings and Kirk Cousins -- I think they like and respect him there (more than the fans do) but I have a feeling Mike Zimmer might be on the way out, meaning Cousins could be out in place of a new QB, too. Let's see. Probably less then 50% chance of happening, but you never know.

- Bears and Trubisky-- Put up big stats when he came back, but played some bad defenses. The playoffs will play a huge role in determining if he gets a new contract with Chicago this offseason.

Teams not already mentioned that will likely look QB in the 1st round

- Carolina-- Bridgewater played well enough, but he seems like the perfect placeholder for a developmental QB.
- Jags-- No need to spend much time on this one. It's a done deal, barring some sort of tragic occurrence.


So with all that said, here's what I predict (at this very early, pre-playoffs/pre-combine stage) for the offseason:

The draftees who will become starters

- Jags: Draft Trevor Lawrence. No explanation necessary.

- Jets: Draft Justin Fields (trade Sam Darnold...will explain where later). Fields is a likely franchise QB in the mold of Deshaun Watson, with a higher ceiling.

- Falcons: Draft Zach Wilson (trade Matt Ryan...will explain where later). Huge prospect on a cheap deal rookie deal.

- Lions: Draft Draft Trey Lance. I think Saleh gets hired here, brings over an offensive coach from the Niners to be his OC under the Shanahan system, the same system which Lance played in in college. Easy pick, if that's the case.


The remaining teams making changes through trades and free agency:

- New England: Trades a 3rd rd pick to San Francisco for Garappolo... Belichick gets back his prodigy to plug right into his system, at a fair trade price.

- San Francisco: Trades a 2nd rd pick for Matt Ryan...Ryan was an MVP QB under Shanahan. He steps in day 1 and fits.

- The Colts: Trade a 4th rd pick for Carson Wentz... the Reich-Wentz connection is legit. If anyone can bring Carson back to his former glory, it's Reich and one of the best OL's in the NFL.

- Philly: Trades a 3rd rd pick for Matt Stafford... the big arm and bravado of Stafford should fit well with Doug Pederson, who has to hit a homerun to save his job. Stafford agrees to there with the understanding that they take an OL with the #6 pick and do everything possible to give him more protection.

- Washington: Trades a 3rd rd pick for Sam Darnold... Darnold is young enough to fit with Washington's youth movement and can be coached under Alex Smith as he learns the ropes. Will definitely make them a better team than this year, and if he hits his potential they can become the NFC East favorite.

- Denver: Sort of left out with all of the other moves happening. If Minnesota fires Mike Zimmer and goes for a restructure, I think they jump all over Cousins (and if the Niners take Cousins, Denver takes Matt Ryan). If Cousins sticks around, I think they end up with Ryan Fitzpatrick, who starts one last season while Lock goes into another year of training while hopefully being ready to take over in 2022.

- Chicago gives Trubisky a franchise tag and sees if he can repeat his play over an entire season.

So, to summarize the teams with starting QB movement:

JAX: Trevor Lawrence
NYJ: Justin Fields
ATL: Zach Wilson
DET: Trey Lance

PHI: Matt Stafford
SF: Matt Ryan
IND: Carson Wentz
NE: Jimmy Garappolo
WSH: Sam Darnold
DEN: Ryan Fitzpatrick


Any thoughts?

[Mamba Mentality]

Have the Eagles really thrown in the towel on Jalen Hurts? Seems rather unfair if you ask me, dude certainly has his flaws but he showed he was more than capable of moving the chains even if it was a bit unorthodox. I'd rather roll with him than an injury prone Stafford.

[Mamba Mentality]

Also league better pray the Niners don't trade for Matt Ryan. I'll just leave it at that.

[hermes]

a lot of people want the vikings to make a change but of all the qbs on the list (the ones likely to be available) i don't know who i'd take over cousins. some fans would take teddy back in a heartbeat but is that an upgrade?

and considering his contract situation i really don't think they move him this off-season. they might draft a qb but it will be a mid-to late round guy like last year

[El Turco]

Also league better pray the Niners don't trade for Matt Ryan. I'll just leave it at that.

Don't want ryan, but if they can somehow get stafford it is game over.

It is virtually impossible for falcons to move away from ryan anyway, they are stuck with him for at least 2 more years

[righterwriter]

Also league better pray the Niners don't trade for Matt Ryan. I'll just leave it at that.

Don't want ryan, but if they can somehow get stafford it is game over.

It is virtually impossible for falcons to move away from ryan anyway, they are stuck with him for at least 2 more years

I think Stafford has more arm talent, but Ryan knows the complex Shanahan system, which takes a full season to understand.

In terms of a deal, a player can always restructure to make a trade (or release) possible. If they know they are getting paid on the team they are going to, they'll drop their contract value tremendously. That might be more likely than some of these trades, due to cap hits. And frankly, a team like ATL (or DET) would rather have the cap space if they are drafting a qb in the top of the 1st round. The 2nd or 3rd round pick isn't as important as clearing $30M to build around the young guy.

[righterwriter]

Have the Eagles really thrown in the towel on Jalen Hurts? Seems rather unfair if you ask me, dude certainly has his flaws but he showed he was more than capable of moving the chains even if it was a bit unorthodox. I'd rather roll with him than an injury prone Stafford.

I think Hurts is young enough that he could still sit for another year or two. Frankly, he's not ready to lead a veteran team like the Eagles deep into the playoffs. Also, Pederson (and the GM Roseman) is gone unless Philly really performs this year, so he'll want a guy that is a more sure thing since his career is riding on it.

[Mamba Mentality]

Also league better pray the Niners don't trade for Matt Ryan. I'll just leave it at that.

Don't want ryan, but if they can somehow get stafford it is game over.

It is virtually impossible for falcons to move away from ryan anyway, they are stuck with him for at least 2 more years

I've got some durability concerns with Stafford. Rather not go down that road again, been bad enough with Jimmy G.

[goober]

I want Zach Wilson to be groomed by Shanahan please and thank you

[hermes]

Also league better pray the Niners don't trade for Matt Ryan. I'll just leave it at that.

Don't want ryan, but if they can somehow get stafford it is game over.

It is virtually impossible for falcons to move away from ryan anyway, they are stuck with him for at least 2 more years

I've got some durability concerns with Stafford. Rather not go down that road again, been bad enough with Jimmy G.

really?

looks like the only time he's missed since 2011 was half of last year, otherwise he's started every game
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/StafMa00.htm

[Mamba Mentality]

Don't want ryan, but if they can somehow get stafford it is game over.

It is virtually impossible for falcons to move away from ryan anyway, they are stuck with him for at least 2 more years

I've got some durability concerns with Stafford. Rather not go down that road again, been bad enough with Jimmy G.

really?

looks like the only time he's missed since 2011 was half of last year, otherwise he's started every game
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/StafMa00.htm

Missed half of last year and was in and out for half this season. That's enough to raise some red flags.

Matt Ryan had some of his best years under KS, I can only imagine the numbers he'd put up with a full compliment of receiving weapons and an elite running game. We could easily get a couple more strong seasons out of him.

[LAKESHOW]

If I'm Darnold I'm getting the fu** out of new York.

[skones]

Missed half of last year and was in and out for half this season. That's enough to raise some red flags.

Matt Ryan had some of his best years under KS, I can only imagine the numbers he'd put up with a full compliment of receiving weapons and an elite running game. We could easily get a couple more strong seasons out of him.

Chase Daniel had 43 attempts all season long. I think you're overstating his problems this season to be honest. 8 games over 10 seasons. Early in his career he looked like he may have been headed down that road, but I don't see him as a "durability concern" at all. In fact, I think Detroit largely wasted his career. Dude just goes out and throws for 4,000 yards and 25 TDs every year and is super underappreciated.

[goober]

Please help safe a life, and1 this post so Zach Wilson ends up a 49er

[LipSkinMatter]

As of now, Darnold is the worst QB in the sport. Nobody is giving him a starting job in 2021, that's for certain.

[Pacers_Freak]

No way the Colts or anyone in the NFL gives up any capital for Wentz. It's not Wentz the player it is Wentz the deal. I think in a change of scenery he could be a Tannehill type turnaround. But that contract is gross. Only way he is on the move is if Philly bites the bullet and cuts him.

[LAKESHOW]

Tannehill, out of a job, worthless. Leaves Adam Gase, and now tannehill is a starter, new contract. Darnold, Adam gase same story. Gase is a lousy coach, terrible coach, that has unemployed coaches be sayin, dayum, how did gase get a other job?

[righterwriter]

Time to put Deshaun into the mix. If the Texans have pissed him off just a few days after a terrible season by excluding him from the coaching/GM hiring process, I don't see how things get better.

Unless of course they hire his HC choice Bienemy, which they might be forced to do now that things have gone public. If that happens, it automatically neuters their new GM hire, who gets shown that his input on who is the coach means nothing compared to what the QB wants.

If the front office can't fix things, and based on the way they've done things over the last several years it seems like they can't, then Watson is likely traded. Plenty of teams would give up a lot to give him. It might just happen, especially if the Texans can get a QB back in the deal.

[letsgorockets]

Time to put Deshaun into the mix. If the Texans have pissed him off just a few days after a terrible season by excluding him from the coaching/GM hiring process, I don't see how things get better.

Unless of course they hire his HC choice Bienemy, which they might be forced to do now that things have gone public. If that happens, it automatically neuters their new GM hire, who gets shown that his input on who is the coach means nothing compared to what the QB wants.

If the front office can't fix things, and based on the way they've done things over the last several years it seems like they can't, then Watson is likely traded. Plenty of teams would give up a lot to give him. It might just happen, especially if the Texans can get a QB back in the deal.

I don't care what Caserio thinks about anything, if Bieniemy will help sooth things over for Watson, then you do it. I just can't believe the Texans let things get this bad. The Harden trade request didn't hit me nearly as hard because the Rockets did everything, EVERYTHING, for him. Whatever he wanted, and he still wants out, so I'm over him and just want a fair return. This (potential) trade requests guts me because Deshaun is such a good guy, great teammate, and incredible talent who was utterly and completely failed by this organization. From late, racist peice of garbage Bob McNair trading Duane Brown for voicing different politics than him, to O'Brien trading away Clowney and Hopkins for nothing because they had the temerity to expect more money, all while little McNair Jr pounds his pud in a corner oblivious to it. I'm deeply apologetic for everything Watson has had to go through, and hope he changes his mind, but I can't blame him if he doesn't given what's happened here so far. My only hope is Jacksonville hires Meyer and drafts Fields, and maybe the Jets would trade the Lawrence pick for Watson. Outside of that scenario, might as well contract this garbage heap of a team and let the city of Houston run the McNairs outta town on a rail.

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[righterwriter]

Time to put Deshaun into the mix. If the Texans have pissed him off just a few days after a terrible season by excluding him from the coaching/GM hiring process, I don't see how things get better.

Unless of course they hire his HC choice Bienemy, which they might be forced to do now that things have gone public. If that happens, it automatically neuters their new GM hire, who gets shown that his input on who is the coach means nothing compared to what the QB wants.

If the front office can't fix things, and based on the way they've done things over the last several years it seems like they can't, then Watson is likely traded. Plenty of teams would give up a lot to give him. It might just happen, especially if the Texans can get a QB back in the deal.

I don't care what Caserio thinks about anything, if Bieniemy will help sooth things over for Watson, then you do it. I just can't believe the Texans let things get this bad. The Harden trade request didn't hit me nearly as hard because the Rockets did everything, EVERYTHING, for him. Whatever he wanted, and he still wants out, so I'm over him and just want a fair return. This (potential) trade requests guts me because Deshaun is such a good guy, great teammate, and incredible talent who was utterly and completely failed by this organization. From late, racist peice of garbage Bob McNair trading Duane Brown for voicing different politics than him, to O'Brien trading away Clowney and Hopkins for nothing because they had the temerity to expect more money, all while little McNair Jr pounds his pud in a corner oblivious to it. I'm deeply apologetic for everything Watson has had to go through, and hope he changes his mind, but I can't blame him if he doesn't given what's happened here so far. My only hope is Jacksonville hires Meyer and drafts Fields, and maybe the Jets would trade the Lawrence pick for Watson. Outside of that scenario, might as well contract this garbage heap of a team and let the city of Houston run the McNairs outta town on a rail.

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I think a lot of your points are right on the money.

The new GM basically has no choice but to try to spin this into "we wanted Bienemy as our guy all along." It might be the right choice anyway, as he may bring Watson to the next level. It's a young team, so a young head coach makes a lot of sense.

But Caserio basically either has to instantly accept what Watson wants or become public enemy #1 in Houston before he makes a single move. There's no other way. Let's see if he can do the right thing.

If the Texans HAVE TO trade Watson, would you be happy with the Jets trading you Justin Fields? I don't think Lawrence will be there.