RealGM

It’s like Christmas Eve…thank god it’s back!

Anyone else like the Bills tomorrow night giving 2.5?

Hate both teams. Not watching.

Bills cover easily.

shoot we're not at noon? ugh

and here is where i'll complain about having to play green bay in doors during nice weather and then playing outside during winter, which seems to happen every year

Tonight's game should be fun, looking forward to it.

How can you hate the Bills, go Bills!!!

azcatz11 wrote:Anyone else like the Bills tomorrow night giving 2.5?

Well in my pick em I took the Bills +1.5 because I figured the game is a toss up and might as well take the points, but I certainly wouldn't bet on it. Could go either way. And the Rams are at home, so theoretically, given that home field is usually worth 3-4 pts on the spread, the Bills are in a way favored as the stronger team.

I might slightly lean Bills after getting their hearts ripped out in the playoffs and being hungry as well as getting points....they could even lose by 1 or 2 and you could still be ok if getting 2.5.

Edit: actually in pigskin pick em, Bills are favored by 1.5. The SB Champs getting points at home seems kind of crazy. I hate changing picks because it usually backfires but I like taking home underdogs and the Rams as a home underdog is kind of crazy.

bwgood77 wrote:

azcatz11 wrote:Anyone else like the Bills tomorrow night giving 2.5?

Well in my pick em I took the Bills +1.5 because I figured the game is a toss up and might as well take the points, but I certainly wouldn't bet on it. Could go either way. And the Rams are at home, so theoretically, given that home field is usually worth 3-4 pts on the spread, the Bills are in a way favored as the stronger team.

I might slightly lean Bills after getting their hearts ripped out in the playoffs and being hungry as well as getting points....they could even lose by 1 or 2 and you could still be ok if getting 2.5.

Edit: actually in pigskin pick em, Bills are favored by 1.5. The SB Champs getting points at home seems kind of crazy. I hate changing picks because it usually backfires but I like taking home underdogs and the Rams as a home underdog is kind of crazy.

I guess you have to buy into the narrative that the Bills are hungry and the Rams are satisfied...that's honestly the only way the spread makes sense IMO.

I'm going to go ahead and bet the Bills

azcatz11 wrote:

bwgood77 wrote:

azcatz11 wrote:Anyone else like the Bills tomorrow night giving 2.5?

Well in my pick em I took the Bills +1.5 because I figured the game is a toss up and might as well take the points, but I certainly wouldn't bet on it. Could go either way. And the Rams are at home, so theoretically, given that home field is usually worth 3-4 pts on the spread, the Bills are in a way favored as the stronger team.

I might slightly lean Bills after getting their hearts ripped out in the playoffs and being hungry as well as getting points....they could even lose by 1 or 2 and you could still be ok if getting 2.5.

Edit: actually in pigskin pick em, Bills are favored by 1.5. The SB Champs getting points at home seems kind of crazy. I hate changing picks because it usually backfires but I like taking home underdogs and the Rams as a home underdog is kind of crazy.

I guess you have to buy into the narrative that the Bills are hungry and the Rams are satisfied...that's honestly the only way the spread makes sense IMO.

I'm going to go ahead and bet the Bills

In the pick em contest or put money?

Anything you don't feel good enough about to make a decision on without asking someone, I wouldn't put real money on.

Maybe if you could tease it...like that and the over.

I wonder why the spread moved so much....if Bills were favored and now Rams are favored by 2.5 that means all the sharps are taking the Rams.

bwgood77 wrote:

azcatz11 wrote:

bwgood77 wrote:
Well in my pick em I took the Bills +1.5 because I figured the game is a toss up and might as well take the points, but I certainly wouldn't bet on it. Could go either way. And the Rams are at home, so theoretically, given that home field is usually worth 3-4 pts on the spread, the Bills are in a way favored as the stronger team.

I might slightly lean Bills after getting their hearts ripped out in the playoffs and being hungry as well as getting points....they could even lose by 1 or 2 and you could still be ok if getting 2.5.

Edit: actually in pigskin pick em, Bills are favored by 1.5. The SB Champs getting points at home seems kind of crazy. I hate changing picks because it usually backfires but I like taking home underdogs and the Rams as a home underdog is kind of crazy.

I guess you have to buy into the narrative that the Bills are hungry and the Rams are satisfied...that's honestly the only way the spread makes sense IMO.

I'm going to go ahead and bet the Bills

In the pick em contest or put money?

Anything you don't feel good enough about to make a decision on without asking someone, I wouldn't put real money on.

Maybe if you could tease it...like that and the over.

I wonder why the spread moved so much....if Bills were favored and now Rams are favored by 2.5 that means all the sharps are taking the Rams.

Never mind...you said Bills are giving 2.5, so they are favored. In that case I might tease Rams. When I was in college teasers moved spreads 6 points which would give you Rams +8.5, but it seems a few years ago when I looked at sports books teasers only moved spreads like 4 points unless you bought extra points.

Also, you should read this guy at least for reference. https://www.vsin.com/tuleys-takes-today-98-thursday-best-bets-including-takes-on-nfl-week-1-card/

You can follow him on twitter to see when he posts new articles and get links to them.

Teasing the Rams up to 8.5 if your book allows that seems like a good bet because I think the game will be close either way.

bwgood77 wrote:

bwgood77 wrote:

azcatz11 wrote:
I guess you have to buy into the narrative that the Bills are hungry and the Rams are satisfied...that's honestly the only way the spread makes sense IMO.

I'm going to go ahead and bet the Bills

In the pick em contest or put money?

Anything you don't feel good enough about to make a decision on without asking someone, I wouldn't put real money on.

Maybe if you could tease it...like that and the over.

I wonder why the spread moved so much....if Bills were favored and now Rams are favored by 2.5 that means all the sharps are taking the Rams.

Never mind...you said Bills are giving 2.5, so they are favored. In that case I might tease Rams. When I was in college teasers moved spreads 6 points which would give you Rams +8.5, but it seems a few years ago when I looked at sports books teasers only moved spreads like 4 points unless you bought extra points.

Also, you should read this guy at least for reference. https://www.vsin.com/tuleys-takes-today-98-thursday-best-bets-including-takes-on-nfl-week-1-card/

You can follow him on twitter to see when he posts new articles and get links to them.

Teasing the Rams up to 8.5 if your book allows that seems like a good bet because I think the game will be close either way.

Thanks for the link. I use Caesars and they do allow teasers. I bet $50 on the Bills let’s see what happens. I’ll prob do a parlay if I win

azcatz11 wrote:

bwgood77 wrote:

bwgood77 wrote:
In the pick em contest or put money?

Anything you don't feel good enough about to make a decision on without asking someone, I wouldn't put real money on.

Maybe if you could tease it...like that and the over.

I wonder why the spread moved so much....if Bills were favored and now Rams are favored by 2.5 that means all the sharps are taking the Rams.

Never mind...you said Bills are giving 2.5, so they are favored. In that case I might tease Rams. When I was in college teasers moved spreads 6 points which would give you Rams +8.5, but it seems a few years ago when I looked at sports books teasers only moved spreads like 4 points unless you bought extra points.

Also, you should read this guy at least for reference. https://www.vsin.com/tuleys-takes-today-98-thursday-best-bets-including-takes-on-nfl-week-1-card/

You can follow him on twitter to see when he posts new articles and get links to them.

Teasing the Rams up to 8.5 if your book allows that seems like a good bet because I think the game will be close either way.

Thanks for the link. I use Caesars and they do allow teasers. I bet $50 on the Bills let’s see what happens. I’ll prob do a parlay if I win

Do you ever hedge? For example if you did a teaser with say Rams +8.5 and say the over (minus 6 on the tease)...and as long as you got the over, you'd at least win one of the bets and maybe both if the Bills won by between 3 and 8.

Though I guess since you are relying on the over as well, you could lose both if the Rams won but the over didn't hit.

bwgood77 wrote:

azcatz11 wrote:

bwgood77 wrote:
Never mind...you said Bills are giving 2.5, so they are favored. In that case I might tease Rams. When I was in college teasers moved spreads 6 points which would give you Rams +8.5, but it seems a few years ago when I looked at sports books teasers only moved spreads like 4 points unless you bought extra points.

Also, you should read this guy at least for reference. https://www.vsin.com/tuleys-takes-today-98-thursday-best-bets-including-takes-on-nfl-week-1-card/

You can follow him on twitter to see when he posts new articles and get links to them.

Teasing the Rams up to 8.5 if your book allows that seems like a good bet because I think the game will be close either way.

Thanks for the link. I use Caesars and they do allow teasers. I bet $50 on the Bills let’s see what happens. I’ll prob do a parlay if I win

Do you ever hedge? For example if you did a teaser with say Rams +8.5 and say the over (minus 6 on the tease)...and as long as you got the over, you'd at least win one of the bets and maybe both if the Bills won by between 3 and 8.

Though I guess since you are relying on the over as well, you could lose both if the Rams won but the over didn't hit.

Or you could tease Rams +8.5 along with one of the games on Sunday (on teasers I usually move a +1.5 or more to +7.5 or more) or move an 8.5 favorite or less down to a 2.5 favorite or less.

This should be a good game tonight! DOUBLE OT! LETSSSSSSSSSSSS GGGGOOOOOOOOOO!!!!

bwgood77 wrote:

bwgood77 wrote:

azcatz11 wrote:

Thanks for the link. I use Caesars and they do allow teasers. I bet $50 on the Bills let’s see what happens. I’ll prob do a parlay if I win

Do you ever hedge? For example if you did a teaser with say Rams +8.5 and say the over (minus 6 on the tease)...and as long as you got the over, you'd at least win one of the bets and maybe both if the Bills won by between 3 and 8.

Though I guess since you are relying on the over as well, you could lose both if the Rams won but the over didn't hit.

Or you could tease Rams +8.5 along with one of the games on Sunday (on teasers I usually move a +1.5 or more to +7.5 or more) or move an 8.5 favorite or less down to a 2.5 favorite or less.

I opted to just do a straight bet...I may get crafty with that stuff later in the season. Honestly, just want to enjoy the game. If I win, great.

I also have 3 fantasy teams...which I'm realizing is WAY too many. Next year, I'm just doing this one and my Dynasty league

Bills Mafia!

Duke is so lucky - I didn't start Davis. What a joke. I don't know how I did that

azcatz11 wrote:Duke is so lucky - I didn't start Davis. What a joke. I don't know how I did that

All that studying and self rating sure paid off.